RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Down to 20pts profit in this thread, but now going to make a proper effort with the jumps season about to take shape. 3 bets for Saturday, starting in the north east with: 3.50 Hexham 15 runners face the tape, in this Class 4 handicap hurdle over 3m. I'm siding with jockeyship here in: Talarive (9/1 SportingBet) - Graham Lee takes the ride today on this Peter Niven trained 11yo. In its heyday, would have comfortably taken this event but has slipped down the weights and, although 2lb for its 2nd lto, still looks capable here. Looks to need this trip now, and was staying on well lto over a furlong shorter. Good ground is ideal too, and has a nice racing weight here just below 11st. Is race fit too, and could see this going very close despite a slightly tougher task this afternoon.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Next 2 bets both come in the same race: 3.05 Chepstow 18 line up in this 2m4f handicap hurdle, Class 3, with the bookies going 5/1 the field: Grecian Groom (13/2 Betfred) - Jonjo / AP partnership here, but much more than just that to recommend this horse. Won lto only a week ago which means it comes here in great heart. Won relatively easily over a shorter trip than todays, but no signs of stopping so this trip will be ok. That race was in same grade as this and, although this looks tougher, should be thereabouts again. The firmer the ground, the better for this horse and with good ground expected, no issues here. Other than the odds on short he rides later in the day, looks like AP's best chance of a winner today. Nice EW price. I'm also putting up a bigger priced selection in: Gold Gun (20/1 SportingBet) - Alison Thorpe has 2 in the field and this has the best chance, with Seamus Durack taking the ride. Stable in decent form, as is the horse with form figures of 411B2 in the last 3/4 months. Won 2 in the summer in Class 4 but efforts in this grade have been equally as impressive, 2nd lto when staying on well. Unexposed type and should go well. The one concern would be the step back in trip, however with a strong pace, it shouldn't be a problem and this come-from-behind type could be ideally suited by Chepstows long straight. Overpriced for me.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Talarive was 2nd @ 9's, and Grecian Groom was a NR so 26.25pts returned for a small 3.75pt loss today.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Current situation:- Staked = 430.00pts Returned = 446.51pts Profit = +16.51pts Yield = +3.84% Bets = 43 Winners = 6 (14.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 16 (37.2% s/r)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Down to Ascot for todays jumps bet: 1.40 Ascot 17 runners here for the big hurdle. I'm opposing Ouninpohja as 7/2 is a terrible price about a horse who likes to finish 2nd, and in such a competitive race. Of the other principles, Liberate has a lot of weight whilst Kanad loses the assistance of Noel Fehily and Platin Grounds has it to do on these terms, similar comments apply to Altilhar. Therefore, I'm siding with: Cloone River (10/1 SportingBet) - Formerly high class and still in decent heart, finishing 5th recently in a good race. Interesting that Charlie Swan brings it over from Ireland, and Mick Fitz ignores lto winner Alph, and Nicky Henderson's Tessanoora to ride this horse. Off a decent mark and will like the track / trip, so massive EW claims here.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Nothing from the last bet as the horse slipped up on the flat:$. 2 bets for today, so this could be make or break! We start with: 12.55 Cheltenham Class 3 novice handicap hurdle over 2m and a big field of 20 line up. Many in with chances but I'm plumping for: Alamiyan (10/1 BlueSq) - Irish raider with just 10-13 to carry here, and a horse in form after trotting up lto. Raised in the weights considerably but looked impressive lto over a slightly longer trip. That will help on this stiff track. Was decent on the flat. Key to this horse is decent ground, has raced 13 times in its career winning 3 of those. All 3 of those have come on good or better from just 5 tries, is 0 from 8 when soft enters the equation. Excellent EW chance. 2.45 Uttoxeter 20 runners for this 2m4f hurdle, Class 4. Some big prices available here and I'm going EW on: English City (16/1 Betfred) - Trainer brings this horse a long way from Scotland and has secured the services of a good jockey today. Has suffered at the hands of the handicapper but steadily eased and ran very well when stepped up to this trip lto in a better class race at Wetherby. A repeat of that effort over the same trip off the same mark will see this horse make its presence felt. Super EW odds with 4 places paid and I'd hope to see this horse in the shake up.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Mixed bag today, with Almiyan unplaced & running extremely poorly as it failed to settle. English City, meanwhile, ran a big race in 3rd but subject to 30% deduction due to the withdrawl of the expected favourite. Almost break even for the day:eyes Back tomorrow with 2 definite bets, need to find that winning thread as soon as:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) 4 bets for me today, covering all 3 meetings in England today. Have some slight ground concerns over a couple of these, but at big prices today they are worth chancing. All big fields and hopefully one or two of these can get their head in front: 1.35 Carlisle Field reduced to 15 for this Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m1f. Marshall Hall is thrown in here on its chase form, but no way will I be taking Evens on this horse. Masafi has a chance but too high in weights for me here, whilst Hue has a solid chance of landing the hat trick but is raised again, this time 5lb. At a much bigger price, I’d be on: Categorical (20/1 SportingBet) – Big price but this horse seems to be hitting a little bit of form. Improved efforts this term, finishing 2^nd lto just 6 days ago. Steadily coming down the weights too, eased a further 1lb for todays race. Last 2 runs have come over C&D, and stayed on well lto without ever troubling the leader. All this horses best run have come when reappearing quickly (ie, within 2 weeks) so another plus here. Add to that the form of its stable, 3 wins / 1 2^nd from its last 4 runners and 20/1 seems huge to me. Stable has 4 runners today, and this is without doubt the stables best chance of a winner. 1.45 Cheltenham With 4 non runners now, 20 line up for this Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m5f. Very open heat, but I’ll be avoiding the 7/2 on Khasab for Hobbs/Johnson like the plague. 7/2 in a 20 runner race, not for me! I’d rather go EW on a double figure priced horse, and the horse in question is: Rio De Janeiro (12/1 Ladbrokes) – Fantastic reappearance when 4^th at Ascot in a much better race than this. Should strip fitter for that and is only raised 2lb for that effort. That was a seriously hot race. Good jockey booking for today, and this big step up in trip will definitely be in this horse favour. Looked outpaced at Ascot over 2m but stayed on best of all that day and the extra 5f today will help. Wouldn’t want the ground to turn soft, but G/S is fine and, if settling ok, should be staying on up the hill and be involved in the finish. 3.10 Fontwell Southern National over 3m4f, with 15 lining up in this Class 3 handicap chase. A short priced favourite in Dun Drinan bidding for a hat-trick today, but I won’t be taking 2/1 on any horse in a big field handicap. Instead, I’ll be focusing my efforts on: Hurlers Cross (12/1 Ladbrokes) – A horse in form with form figures of 211353 from its last 6 starts. Today, has the additional advantage of being dropped 3lb. 7lb claimer is 3 from 5 on this horse, and horse goes well at this track with a win and 2 places from 5 starts. Loves the marathon trip so no worries on that count. I would prefer the rain to stay away as this horse loves top of the ground. Way too many positives for this race fit horse to be 12/1 so get on EW. 3.20 Carlisle 16 runners for this Class 4 handicap chase over 2m4f. Relatively open event, but an opposable favourite in the Jonjo trained Pop Ahead. Is fav based on its lto effort when 2^nd at Chepstow, but had the assistance of AP that day (McGrath takes over today). However, more worringly is that fact it finished lame that day and is reproduced only 11 days later. Too many question marks to get involved, so I’ll prefer the proven form of: Spirit Calling (13/2 SportingBet) – this looks a weak race and shouldn’t take too much winning. This horse is coming to hand, is race fit, has track experience and seems to have its conditions today. Is only 1lb higher today than lto when a strongly staying on 3^rd over 2m. Is upped to 2m4f today when should be the making of this horse. Stable is also going well at present, and with a decent racing weight of 11-5, is fully expected to get off the mark here.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps)

1.35 Carlisle Categorical (20/1 SportingBet) 1.45 Cheltenham Rio De Janeiro (12/1 Ladbrokes) 3.10 Fontwell Hurlers Cross (12/1 Ladbrokes) 3.20 Carlisle Spirit Calling (13/2 SportingBet)

Categorical unplaced:$....faded badly towards the end of the race Rio De Janeiro 5th:$....unlucky, ran a super race but hit 3 out quite hard and never fully recovered Hurlers Cross unplaced:$.....never really in it Spirit Called 3rd:)....stayed on well, but never reaching impressive winner 23.75pts loss on the day. Will be looking at selection criteria, this thread is going nowhere fast. Sorry to anyone that has followed.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) Lets get this back on track: 3.15 Newbury 12 runners now for this Class 2 handicap chase over 2m4f. AP rides the fav but I can't back it at 2's on this ground so I'm playing EW on: Patricksnineteenth (9/1 SportingBet) - Now 10yo but still lightly raced. Still looks to be handicapped well despite 7lb rise for lto win. 200 day+ absence shouldn't be a problem to this horse. Races for the first time ever carrying less than 11st which should be a bonus on this ground. The more rain the better for this horse with a superb record on soft ground. Trip looks fine too and I really think this is a super EW bet.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Jumps) good luck for today Russ:ok:hope