GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA (assuming I know your strategy)? Ok - Nash Equilibrium is to do the opposite of the strategy you think I'm following :lol :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Ok - Nash Equilibrium is to do the opposite of the strategy you think I'm following :lol :lol :lol Er ... Honestly, my question about what to do on the river is not that hard, and is relevant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Well - if he knows what you're going to do - you bet if you're ahead (and he KNOWS you're ahead) so he folds. If you're behind you check (and he KNOWS he is ahead) and he wins the hand (whether betting or not).... So although only you know ALL the cards, both players have perfect knowledge of who's winning when they act - betting therefore serves no purpose (it's won or lost and both players know the result) so it may as well be checked down...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Well - if he knows what you're going to do - you bet if you're ahead (and he KNOWS you're ahead) so he folds. If you're behind you check (and he KNOWS he is ahead) and he wins the hand (whether betting or not).... No. You can do better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA And if it's going to be checked down, then your pre flop call is wrong and it should have been folded....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA No. You can do better than that. lol - no I can't - just tell us the ******* answer :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Ok - you need to add a "randomizer" into the equation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA C'mon - someone else help - this isn't just Slapdash winding me up you know :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA lol - no I can't - just tell us the ******* answer :tongue2 Blood out of a stone! :lol OK, here's your best strategy on the river, assuming you call pre-flop with any two cards and you're both forced to check until the river. You go all in if you're ahead. But also you randomly go all in with other cards with just the right frequency that, from his point of view, knowing your strategy, there is just over a 50% chance that you are beating him. So from his point of view, you are slightly more likely to be winning than not, so his best strategy is to fold. (The "just over" is because of the chips already in the pot, meaning that he's getting slightly better than even money pot odds to call.) So you bet, and win 50 chips, about 30% of the time. The other 70% of the time you lose 50 chips. ... now, back to the main problem! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 7, 2006 Author Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA this isn't just Slapdash winding me up you know :tongue2 It isn't? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Have sent this in to PokerNightLive - see what Mark Banin and Dr Tom make of it ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Lol - they just read out my email and it got them totally lost - and that was before they got to the problem!!! :loon They say they'll reread it during the break :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA It seems to have stumped them too! Big :ok too slapdash for this poser! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA It seems to have stumped them too! Big :ok too slapdash for this poser! TO be fair, they don't have a lot of time to think about it whilst on air ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
68allin Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA i appreciate that Gaf, and i understand we would like their best efforts, but bet theyve had more time than slapdash would give them if they were sat at the table playin out this scenario! Any1(well good mathmaticians) if knowing all the odds and all the details could sit there and work out an exact mathematical equation if there is one, but IMO its a question that suits a quick responce, as its a question that puts u in a scenario! (if that makes sense) Nice one for getting it on PNL anyway and well done to them for responding! Did one say call and one fold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Yeah - Mark said call and try and push the SB off of the pot after the flop. Dr Tom started off saying Fold (but then wasn't sure). Their answer was practical rather than realistic though (as was ours initially) - they said it depends on your opponents and your read on their strategy - and how good they were and whether you thought they could lay a hand down ....... rather than playing perfect poker with perfect knowledge of the opponents strategy ....... I'm just emailing them that, but also having to say I don't know the answer yet :$ (I think I do - that it's the same as the answer slapdash gave if it's taken to the river, but not sure......) Hopefully slapdash will be online at some stage and can send it to them..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnley Joe Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Fellas, its like me on most nights Ernest & Juliet or Wilson's Sauvignon Blanc 2004 no matter what your gonna pcik what you think is best for you!!! Oh Yeah i`m drunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA So you bet, and win 50 chips, about 30% of the time. The other 70% of the time you lose 50 chips. Erm .... your BB is already lost when you make the decision - so 30% of the time you will win 70 chips and 70% of the time you will lose 30 chips. THis changes a call from negative ev (minus 20) to an equilibrium (i.e. doesn't matter if you call or fold) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pistonbroke Posted October 7, 2006 Share Posted October 7, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA you need to goi out abnd drink loads godf beere on saturgdays instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA without having read all the responses, from the orginal question, my gut feel is to call for 30, and as long as an ace doesn't flop, look him in the eye and raise hard. It's all about knowledge, you have perfect knowledge of the hand, his is limited. When you raise it's all about if he trusts your move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedonist Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA I have not had time to read all the answers given but my initial reaction is that if I were on the BB I would fold and lose 20. If I had the aces then whatever the flop I would make a pot sized bet (100) so that the BB would not have the odds to chase a flush or straight. If the BB raised then I do not know what I would do, it would depend on the flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Erm .... your BB is already lost when you make the decision - so 30% of the time you will win 70 chips and 70% of the time you will lose 30 chips. THis changes a call from negative ev (minus 20) to an equilibrium (i.e. doesn't matter if you call or fold) Yes, sorry, that's what I meant. So if you were both forced to check until after the river, then it doesn't make much difference to your EV whether you fold or call pre-flop. Now, what difference do the two extra betting rounds make? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA I guess I must be missing something here, but this is still an easy call for me for the reasons mentioned in post 29. I can see how it could be even equity from check-check and only a river bet if the aces guy set a strict plateau for bets he'll call/fold to, but with two more rounds of betting before that he can either be bet out of the pot, or if he can't, he's willing to call bets big enough that you have implied odds to play against him. Tell us what we're missing? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Tell us what we're missing? :D As I see it, the key (and obviously unrealistic) assumption here is that you can only have 1 strategy, cannot change that strategy, cannot make that strategy dependent on your opponents strategy (you act first) and must provide your opponent with complete and exact knowledge of that strategy........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Now' date=' what difference do the two extra betting rounds make?[/quote'] Post Flop - BB starts by shoving if he's ahead, plus a bit to just less than the percentage chance he is ahead - the AA must therefore fold.... (i.e. the betting round makes no difference, I'm just regurgitating your answer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA I guess I must be missing something here, but this is still an easy call for me for the reasons mentioned in post 29. I can see how it could be even equity from check-check and only a river bet if the aces guy set a strict plateau for bets he'll call/fold to, but with two more rounds of betting before that he can either be bet out of the pot, or if he can't, he's willing to call bets big enough that you have implied odds to play against him. Tell us what we're missing? :D OK, in post 29 you wrote: There's two possibilites here: 1. Knowing that we both know you have aces, you can be bluffed out of the hand, in which case we're right to call. 2. Knowing that we both know you have aces, you can't be bluffed out of the hand, in which case we have implied odds to call. It's a winning call in both scenarios. The only question is whether you can judge which it is - which is why I originally said it's about psychology and how well you know your opponent. But you're assuming you know what I'll do if you bet. I'm not that predictable. ;) You're assuming that you're allowed to know my strategy when you decide whether or not to bet, but you're assuming that I'm not allowed to know your strategy when I decide whether or not to call. That doesn't seem fair! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA without having read all the responses, from the orginal question, my gut feel is to call for 30, and as long as an ace doesn't flop, look him in the eye and raise hard. It's all about knowledge, you have perfect knowledge of the hand, his is limited. When you raise it's all about if he trusts your move. Sounds like the best "real world" solution to me :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Post Flop - BB starts by shoving if he's ahead' date=' plus a bit to just less than the percentage chance he is ahead - the AA must therefore fold.... (i.e. the betting round makes no difference, I'm just regurgitating your answer)[/quote'] I don't think that works. On the flop, I think your chance of being ahead is almost certainly less than 15% (only three cards out to make you two pair, a flush, a straight, etc. So you'd be betting less than 30% of the time. If you don't bet, and if I know your strategy, then I can make a big bet and force you out, because I know you'd have bet if you were ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted October 8, 2006 Author Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA Sounds like the best "real world" solution to me :ok Do you want to play, then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted October 8, 2006 Share Posted October 8, 2006 Re: Heads up against AA You're assuming that you're allowed to know my strategy when you decide whether or not to bet' date=' but you're assuming that I'm [b']not allowed to know your strategy when I decide whether or not to call. That doesn't seem fair! And that's a fair assumption - this is not a prisoners dilemna with positive equity floating about in the ether. One or both players are irrational, and if neither were there'd be no point in playing. And I assume exactly this in every hand I play, not with anything like 100% certainty but with some degree greater than random chance - that's what an edge is. Without this poker is just pushing chips back and forth. And in this specific example it's even more likely I'll have greater access to my own strategy, because you don't know my cards and I do. It goes without saying that you don't have an edge against aces if your opponent has complete knowledge of your strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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