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guesswest

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About guesswest

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 10/07/1979
  1. Re: How do good players play this ?? Haven't posted on here in ages but ran into this thread randomly googling something else so I'll throw my two cents in. I'd always push here. You can reasonably assume 12 outs. If someone has a better flush draw then they have it, but that's probabilistically unlikely enough I wouldn't give it much consideration with that much play in my stack. Your 12 outs over 2 cards gives you a 50% shot at taking this pot down, so I'd be shoving this even heads up as the pot as it stands makes that a lot of +EV. And you do have some amount of fold equity here, certai
  2. Re: MTT strategy with a big, but not dominant, stack Assuming you're still on the same table, I think knowing how you lost that big pot is going to be very important in determining how to play... A big stack losing a huge amount of chips like that, especially in a big tournament, is something everyone at your table will take note of and remember, consciously or not. Especially if it seems like an 'answer,' - if they've seen you take a lot of pots without seeing your cards. If you lost that big pot when you didn't have much of a hand, or obviously overvalued it, or were trying to bu
  3. guesswest

    Fightback

    Re: Fightback Not sure what kind of feedback you're looking for here - you definitely misplayed the first hand but you're well aware of that. As far as the second hand goes, I think you're right to suspect he might be a calling station - he may just have had a fantastic read (and is true you have to give him the benefit of the doubt in judgement) - but it's much more likely he's just loose passive. With that in mind I like how you played the 2nd hand, I wouldn't mind it even without that information - on the one hand you want to give a tight player a card to catch up with, but on the other
  4. Re: How do re-buys and add-on's affect value? I think rebuys represent better profit opportunity for a good player and I'll always take a rebuy over a freezeout. There's a few reasons for that, but the main one is just that the play is really bad during the rebuy period, so there's more equity floating about. I also think playing a rebuy as a freezeout, as Dodger mentioned, is an entirely valid approach - although not many people seem to agree. Your variance will certainly be greater than entering a freezeout with the same buy-in and entrants, but your return will be proportionally greater
  5. Re: Was I right to call this? Think I'm just repeating Gaf here, but....If you are going to play this hand, you should raise the flop, or if you don't, at least bet the turn. You have a big draw, but you don't have odds to be flat calling it, With a draw like this, by raising you're creating folding equity (x% call y% fold), you don't need a massive amount of folding equity to find value in this hand, but by being passive you have none, it's just a face-value call and the value isn't there. And it's not just folding equity - if you get calls and do hit you have a better chance of being call
  6. Re: how long before variance kicks in? Will second muze, variance is hugely underestimated, even by a lot of full-time cash players. There was a discussion about this on 2+2 a while ago...it's going to vary by game, table size, limit etc. But for full table NL Hold'em 100,000 hands is a good (fairly conservative) estimate of the point at which you'll start to get a real picture of how much of a winning/losing player you are and what your real hourlies are. Not suggesting you aren't a winning player, but 1250 just isn't close statistically significant - you need a way bigger number to get
  7. Re: How was my play? I think you played this hand well too. Want to add tho, given what you just said about your play being aggressive short-handed (nothing wrong with that) - while I'm not exactly sold on it, I don't hate the call with 46c here either for $2 into that pot, bearing in mind your respective stacks. Mid-low suited connectors like that can make a lot of winning hands, most of which are well camouflaged, so if he's been watching you, and with him not knowing you have kings, he might have reason to expect the implied odds to see a flop here. Your flop bet was perfect - in general
  8. Re: PL $1k "Xmas Freeroll" Sponsored by Betfair - Sat Dec 16th at 8pm!
  9. Re: PL $1k "Xmas Freeroll" Sponsored by Betfair - Sat Dec 16th at 8pm! Do we need to say in this thread if want the password? If so, count me in :)
  10. Does anyone know any way of getting the Mansion software to shut up? There's no mute option in the software, as confirmed by livechat. I've looked in the install folder and all the sounds are embedded too, so I can't delete them. Does anyone know any way of making the sound go away, like maybe a prog that lets you mute particular software or something? I keep avoiding their tourneys cos it drives me insane not being able to listen to music while I'm playing...
  11. Re: $300 Exclusive PL Freeroll
  12. Re: $300 Exclusive PL Freeroll The pass I got via PM for this one don't work - has it been changed? Could someone PM me it if so? Cheers :)
  13. Re: $300 Exclusive PL Freeroll Awesome! Very cool thing to do - include me for the pass, and have a great birthday :ok (I'm in Amsterdam this weekend too for Sufjan Stevens gig - might bump into you at Schiphol ;))
  14. Re: Omaha - make trips on the river - now what? 2-3x min, nothing more.
  15. Re: What would you do? I don't like this either, and feel like you're probably being milked, or maybe that he played overcards badly and hit the river. But to call his all-in is 300 more to win a 2.5k pot so you'd have to be very sure to lay this. There's enough of a possibility that he has 8's or 99, TT, or played a draw poorly and is trying to take it down etc - at that price I'd definitely pay to see this.
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