FleetFanatic Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Today I noted horses that won 2 races ago then flopped by finishing 4th or lower LTO. Form of 2 races in brackets As usual, avoiding maidens, sellers & claimers: 2.10 GOODWOOD Linden Lime (18) 3rd 11/1 4.20 GOODWOOD Todlea (19) 1st 14/1 5.30 GOODWOOD Another True Story (17) 1st 7/2 4.00 KEMPTON Mujood (15) nowhere 5.10 KEMPTON Swords (15) 1st 9/2 / Bienheureux (15) 2nd 11/4 4.45 STRATFORD Green Go (14) 1st 9/1 This could be worth following? (& no, I didn't backed these, it's just another pattern I noticed today.....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Foolery Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... That'd be a very interesting system to follow IMO. Horses selected would have ability due to having a win on their record, and it would account for unfortunate breaks out the stalls, being held up, bad rides etc.. Could also throw up some big price winners. Would follow with interest FF. Going to go through last weeks results to see if it shows anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Kind of what I was thinking, although I have ignored any that showed on the racecard with 10 in their form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 10, 2006 Author Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Few winners and placers last week. I'll trial this I think. 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher. Monday 11th September 2.40 REDCAR Bowl Em Over (14) 3.00 WOLVERHAMPTON Kennington (15) 4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON Southport Star (17) 4.50 FOLKESTONE Billy One Punch (18) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZuluWarrior Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Best of luck on another systems Fleet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher. Monday 11th September 2.40 REDCAR Bowl Em Over (14) :$ 3.00 WOLVERHAMPTON Kennington (15) :$ 4.30 WOLVERHAMPTON Southport Star (17) 3rd 10/1 :ok 4.50 FOLKESTONE Billy One Punch (18) :$ Just 17.5pts returned Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Foolery Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Kennington, 1 length off a place in 4th @ 20/1 Southport Star, beaten 2 nk's into 3rd @ 10/1 Unlucky and :hope for the 16.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... And Billy One Punch touched off into 4th - must have only been a length between 1st & 4th .....:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Current +/- = -22.5pts :spank Tuesday 12th September 2.40 SANDOWN Mango Music (17) 2.50 YARMOUTH Crumbs Of Comfort (15) 3.50 SANDOWN Magic Warrior (17) 4.35 YARMOUTH Riotous Applause (17) 4.55 SANDOWN Snow Bunting (18) 5.05 YARMOUTH Bold Minstrel (16) / Silver Dane (16) 5.35 YARMOUTH Spaceman (14) 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... If applying a 21day filter: most of the winners & placers seem to be run again within this timescale..... (I'm gonna go through past results in more detail when I get more time.) 3.50 SANDOWN Magic Warrior (17) 4.55 SANDOWN Snow Bunting (18) 5.05 YARMOUTH Bold Minstrel (16) Let's compare with / without..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Current +/- = -22.5pts :spank Tuesday 12th September 2.40 SANDOWN Mango Music (17) 1st 6/1 :clap 46pts returned 2.50 YARMOUTH Crumbs Of Comfort (15) 2nd 11/2 :ok 10.5pts returned 3.50 SANDOWN Magic Warrior (17) :$ 4.35 YARMOUTH Riotous Applause (17) 1st 12/1 (beating Dettori on a 1/4 shot in the process!) :clap 82pts returned 4.55 SANDOWN Snow Bunting (18) :$ 5.05 YARMOUTH Bold Minstrel (16) 3rd 20/1 :ok 25pts returned / Silver Dane (16) :$ 5.35 YARMOUTH Spaceman (14) :$ 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher.Looks a bumper crop today. :nana 80pts staked, 163.5pts returned :ok Current +/- = +61pts :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Wednesday 13th September 2.30 SANDOWN Fabuleux Millie 3.15 BEVERLEY Markington 4.20 BEVERLEY Tender Process / Sir Loin 4.40 SANDOWN Tawaajud / Quaich 5.05 YARMOUTH Baskerville 5.15 SANDOWN Dove Cottage 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... This is looking interesting Fleet ;) Hope it continues as its started :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 13, 2006 Author Share Posted September 13, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Wednesday 13th September 2.30 SANDOWN Fabuleux Millie non-runner 3.15 BEVERLEY Markington :$ 4.20 BEVERLEY Tender Process :$ / Sir Loin :$ 4.40 SANDOWN Tawaajud :$ / Quaich non-runner 5.05 YARMOUTH Baskerville :$ 5.15 SANDOWN Dove Cottage :$ 10pts win under 5/1, 5pts e/w if 5/1 or higher.What a crock of **** that was today. :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 13, 2006 Author Share Posted September 13, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... So..... it becomes apparent that this is/will be quite volatile, with very goods days and quite disasterous days. So I'm going to take a different, smaller staked approach to this, using lucky15 bets with that treble-the-odds-for-one-winner bookmaker. 4 selections = 1 lucky 15 5-8 selections = 4 lucky 15 9-12 selections = 6 lucky 15 When there is 5 or more selections they will be grouped alphabetically and alternately onto lucky 15s. They will also been grouped chronologically & alternately onto lucky15s (where there are 2 or more selections in one race they will be done in racecard order. The groups will be altered where neccessary so that each selection in the same race is in a seperate lucky 15.) Anyway, you'll see what I mean as the thread develops. Stakes will be small - 0.1pt x 15 = 1.5pts per lucky 15. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 13, 2006 Author Share Posted September 13, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Thursday 14th September - 9 qualifiers. 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 4.30 PONTEFRACTErmineSea (15) 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) / Only If I Laugh (18) / Two Acres (17) We'll wait until tomorrow for non-runners before confirming bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted September 13, 2006 Share Posted September 13, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... I think this may be quite successful and throw up a few good prices winners. However wouldnt the criteria rule out Day To Remember as it finished 3rd LTO and the criteria states 4TH or worse. Good luck with your selections anyway, just wanted to point this out. :ok :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 14, 2006 Author Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... You're right, not sure how that got there.....removed now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 14, 2006 Author Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) / Only If I Laugh (18) So at nearly midday, we're down to 7 selections. Time to place bets with Fred - let's hope there's no more non-runners. Lucky 15 1: 1 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) 2 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) 4 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) Lucky 15 2 1 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 2 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Only If I Laugh (18) 4 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) Lucky 15 3 1 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) 2 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 3 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) 4 5.40 YARMOUTH Only If I Laugh (18) Lucky 15 4 1 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) 2 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) 4 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) 4 x 0.1pts WIN ONLY lucky 15 = 6pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 14, 2006 Author Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Lucky 15 1: 1 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) :$ 2 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) :$ 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) :$ 4 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) :$ Lucky 15 2 1 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 3rd 7/1 2 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 1st 12/1 :clap 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Only If I Laugh (18) non-runner :wall 4 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) :$ Lucky 15 3 1 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) :$ 2 4.00 PONTEFRACT China Cherub (15) 3rd 7/1 3 5.30 PONTEFRACT Etaar (14) :$ 4 5.40 YARMOUTH Only If I Laugh (18) non-runner Lucky 15 4 1 3.25 PONTEFRACT Burton Ash (19) :$ 2 5.20 AYR Hypnotic (17) 1st 12/1 :clap 3 5.40 YARMOUTH Mugeba (14) :$ 4 2.20 PONTEFRACT Tender The Great (19) :$ 4 x 0.1pts WIN ONLY lucky 15 = 6pts staked.Lucky 15 2 returned 1.3, 1.3 + 0.1 = 2.7pts Lucky 15 3 returned 0.1pts Lucky 15 4 returned 3.7pts (treble odds for 1 winner) Total returned 6.5pts for 0.5pts profit. Lucky 15 +/-: 0.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 14, 2006 Author Share Posted September 14, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Thursday 14th September - 13 qualifiers. 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18)/ Oranmore Castle (18) 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) / Spinning Queen (15) 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) / Danetime Music (19) / Mac Gille Eoin (16) 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) 4.40 NOTTINGHAM Saint Alebe (16) suspected non-runner 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) / Granary Girl (15) We'll wait until tomorrow for non-runners before confirming bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18)/ Oranmore Castle (18) 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) / Spinning Queen (15) 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) / Danetime Music (19) / Mac Gille Eoin (16) 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) / Granary Girl (15) At midday just the one non-runner, leaving 12 qualifiers. Lucky 15 1 1 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) 2 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 3 2.45 AYR Oranmore Castle (18) 4 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) Lucky 15 2 1 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) 2 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Granary Girl (15) 3 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Mac Gille Eoin (16) 4 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18) Lucky 15 3 1 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Danetime Music (19) 2 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) 3 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) 4 3.10 NEWBURY Spinning Queen (15) Lucky 15 4 1 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18) 2 3.10 NEWBURY Spinning Queen (15) 3 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Mac Gille Eoin (16) 4 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) Lucky 15 5 1 2.45 AYR Oranmore Castle (18) 2 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) 3 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) 4 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) Lucky 15 6 1 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) 2 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Danetime Music (19) 3 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 4 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Granary Girl (15) 6 x 0.1pts WIN Lucky 15's = 9pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Lucky 15 1 1 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) 1st 12/1 :clap 2 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 4th 28/1 3 2.45 AYR Oranmore Castle (18) 3rd 14/1 4 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) nope Lucky 15 2 1 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) nope 2 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Granary Girl (15) nope 3 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Mac Gille Eoin (16) nope 4 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18) nope Lucky 15 3 1 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Danetime Music (19) non-runner 2 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) nope 3 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) nope 4 3.10 NEWBURY Spinning Queen (15) 2nd 14/1 Lucky 15 4 1 2.45 AYR Smokin Beau (18) nope 2 3.10 NEWBURY Spinning Queen (15) 2nd 14/1 3 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Mac Gille Eoin (16) nope 4 5.25 NEWBURY Coleridge (18) nope Lucky 15 5 1 2.45 AYR Oranmore Castle (18) 3rd 14/1 2 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Batelaur (19) 1st 12/1 :clap 3 4.05 NOTTINGHAM Piddies Pride (14) nope 4 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Oh Danny Boy (19) nope Lucky 15 6 1 3.10 NEWBURY Prince Of Light (19) nope 2 3.30 NOTTINGHAM Danetime Music (19) non-runner 3 4.30 AYR Ellens Academy (14) 4th 28/1 4 6.15 NOTTINGHAM Granary Girl (15) nope 6 x 0.1pts WIN Lucky 15's = 9pts staked.Lucky 15 1 returned 3.7pts Lucky 15 3 returned 0.1pts Lucky 15 5 returned 3.7pts Lucky 15 6 returned 0.1pts Total returned 7.6pts for 1.4pts loss. Lucky 15 +/-: -0.9pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 15, 2006 Author Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Saturday 16th September At this moment, there's 25 qualifiers. :loon Now that would mean 14 lucky 15's, so we'll wait until tomorrow and hopefully cross a few out as non-runners. (Even just one non-runner would reduce it to 12 lucky 15's.....) You see why this is small stakes? And at the odds on offer, just one day where we trap 3 or 4 together would give a bumper payday. Maybe one day.....:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted September 15, 2006 Share Posted September 15, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Maybe one day.....:hope Sure it will come mate Good work with ALL your systems :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Cheers. Well we're down to 24 qualifiers so far. I'll leave this as late as possible before posting. 1st race of the day 1.45 has 2 qualifiers so I'll give it to around 1pm to allow time to place bets..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 16, 2006 Author Share Posted September 16, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... A 2.10 AYR Zanida B 2.40 AYR Waterside C 3.15 AYR Skhilling Spirit D 3.15 AYR Dark Missile E 4.25 AYR Mashaahed F 5.30 AYR Anduril G 5.30 AYR Baileys Encore H 3.05 CATTERICK Terry Molloy I 3.05 CATTERICK Fractured Foxy J 3.40 CATTERICK Dream Prize K 3.40 CATTERICK Highest Regard L 4.45 CATTERICK Onyergo M 2.25 NEWBURY Lipocco N 2.25 NEWBURY Beauchamp Viceroy O 2.55 NEWBURY Chin Wag P 3.30 NEWBURY Formal Decree Q 3.30 NEWBURY Blue Bajan R 4.05 NEWBURY Excusez Moi S 4.05 NEWBURY Donna Blini T 1.45 WARWICK Meikle Barfil U 1.45 WARWICK Jucebabe V 7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON Captain Darling W 9.00 WOLVERHAMPTON Optimum X 9.00 WOLVERHAMPTON Zalkani ALPHABETICAL 1 F D K W 2 G S U C 3 N J E H 4 Q R M B 5 V P T X 6 O I L A CHRONOLOGICAL 1 T O Q L 2 U H J F 3 A I K G 4 M C R V 5 N D S W 6 B P E X 12 x 0.1pts WIN Lucky 15 = 18pts staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 17, 2006 Author Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Only winners: E 4.25 AYR Mashaahed 1st 4/1 I 3.05 CATTERICK Fractured Foxy 1st 14/1 ALPHABETICAL 1 F D K W 2 G S U C 3 N J E H returned 1.3pts 4 Q R M B 5 V P T X 6 O I L A returned 4.3pts CHRONOLOGICAL 1 T O Q L 2 U H J F 3 A I K G returned 4.3pts 4 M C R V 5 N D S W 6 B P E X returned 1.3pts 12 x 0.1pts WIN Lucky 15 = 18pts staked.11.2 pts returned for a loss of 6.8 pts. Lucky 15 +/-: -7.7pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted September 17, 2006 Author Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... Sunday 17th September - 12 qualifiers 2.30 HAMILTON Soto / Memphis Man 4.10 HAMILTON Hinton Admiral / Dolly Coughdrop 4.45 HAMILTON Coconut Moon / Waterways 5.15 HAMILTON Baylaw Star 3.25 UTTOXETER Mags Two 4.00 UTTOXETER Moorlaw 4.35 UTTOXETER Rare Coincidence 5.05 UTTOXETER Incas / Rash Moment Bets up around 1pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstrange Posted September 17, 2006 Share Posted September 17, 2006 Re: Bouncebackability..... I've been testing this backing each selection for one point level stakes. Last 6 days there were 60 bets! Net profit so far +6.8 points at available Betfair prices. Some big wins, but long losing runs (up to 15). I've also run a filtered version, with a cutoff at 30 days LTO. This has given 39 selections, with 3 wins, net profit +5.5 points over 6 days. Not sure about the long term viability mainly because of the large number of selections. Probably want to use my meagre bank for something more manageable eg SW14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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