Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7

[DAC]

Let me explain, I’m a regular poster on Planet Rugby.com and there’s quite a few of us who get together and chat about the betting possibilities of the weekends fixtures. We are all massive fans and have a certain amount of inside knowledge relating to injuries and moral etc, etc. We did really well last year and hope to do the same this year.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Connacht v Ospreys

Selection: Ospreys – 6 @ Paddy Power 10/11

Reasoning:

Now this is by no means a gimme. Connacht are a good side and play with pride and passion and are always hard to beat at the Greyhound track, they had a good bonus point win over the Borders last week and will certainly be up for this. The Ospreys played a decent Edinburgh side and ground out a victory, that said there was 22 handling errors and it must be said that the more than decent backs they possess were a bit rusty to say the least.

My basis for the bet is that playing with pride and passion always means you give away more than your fair share of penalties and the Ospreys can punish them. You also can’t escape from the fact the Ospreys squad is quality, well, on paper anyway:

The teams:

Connacht: 15 Matt Mostyn, 14 Conor McPhillips, 13 Paul Warwick, 12 Gavin Williams, 11 Keith Matthews, 10 Mark McHugh ©, 9 Chris Keane, 8 Colm Rigney, 7 Matt Lacey, 6 John Muldoon, 5 Andrew Farley, 4 David Gannon, 3 Stephen Knoop, 2 Adrian Flavin, 1 Brett Wilkinson. Replacements: 16 John Fogarty, 17 Michael Diffley, 18 Michael Swift, 19 Brendan O'Connor, 20 Tom Tierney, 21 Darren Yapp, 22 Daniel Riordan.

Ospreys: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 Gavin Henson, 11 Shane Williams, 10 James Hook, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Richard Pugh, 6 Andrew Lloyd, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Barry Williams, 1 Duncan Jones (capt). Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Paul James, 18 Lyndon Bateman, 19 Filo Tiatia, 20 Martin Roberts, 21 Andrew Bishop, 22 Tal Selley.

Date: Friday, September 8 Kick-off: 18:30 (17:30 GMT) Venue: The Sportsground Referee: Iain Heard (Scotland) Touch judges: Leo Colgan, Peter Ferguson

I'm looking forward to seeing the Cap on the Dragons v Ulster game tomorrow as we have lost all 4 of our hookers due to injury. I'm also going to give our tips on the Scarlets and Leinster games.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Just received a phone call from. Boyle Sports are offering 4/7 on Ulster beating Newport Gwent Dragons....:lol This is a STEAL. The odds aren't available for anywhere else yet in the UK. I'll post a full synopisis tomorrow but for a start, Newport haven't got a fit hooker tomorrow and are missing 6 Internationals against the reigning Celtic League Champions, Ulster.

[rugbylad]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Hi DAC, Good luck with your selections and tips in the Magners Celtic League (what a great name) :hope :ok Rugbylad

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Thanks Rugbylad! Appreciate it.

[Bamse81]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Nice work and good luck to you DAC :ok :hope

[^Newbie^]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 will be looking in this threat with interest . Nice write ups there m8 .

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Not a great start - Didn't get time to do a write up for the Ulster/Dragons game but as I said - 4/7 was a steal. Dragons v Scarlets Well - I'm liking the look of Scarlets @ -1 on Sporting Odds 5/6. Paul turner doesn't seem to confident and we've got more academy lads playing for us again tonight - which does bode well for the future but thats a strong Scarlets team we've got to front up to. The Scarlets have also had an extra rest day and our match against Ulster was proper end to end stuff and as Paul Turner say's, it's a big ask to perform like that again. We've lost our last 4 games to the West and I can't see it being much different tonight.

Newport Gwent Dragons face their second home Magners League clash in three days when Llanelli Scarlets visit Rodney Parade on Tuesday, kick off 7.10pm. The Dragons have made three changes to the team that narrowly lost on Saturday to current champions Ulster for Tuesday's derby clash with academy member Ashley Smith coming in at inside centre with Ceri Sweeney replacing Mike Hercus at fly half. Hooker Steve Jones has recovered from his neck injury to make the starting XV while flanker Joe Bearman comes in at blindside flanker replacing the injured Nic Fitisemanu. Colin Charvis keeps the captain's armband and plays at No.8. Head Coach Paul Turner keeps his policy of bringing through the academy members with Alex Walker and Ashley Smith both starting. Academy member Lewis Evans is named on the replacements bench. (You mean Paul has no choice) Ashley Smith makes his first full competitive start for the region on Tuesday, he was a replacement in The Dragons Powergen Cup clash against Worcester last year and started for The Dragons in their pre season warm up game against the Cornish Pirates but had to leave the field 12 minutes into the game after suffering a bang to the head. "I am looking forward to making my first start for the team especially as it is a match against another Welsh region," commented Ashley. "I have experienced players around me in Nathan Brew and Ceri Sweeney so I will get lots of advice during the game which will make it easier. To have top quality players around me is fantastic but I will look to grasp the opportunity with both hands and aim to hang onto The Dragons jersey. The game against the Scarlets will be tough but I am relishing making my first start for The Dragons region. Hopefully we will have the same atmosphere as Saturday night and entertain the crowd and give the home support something to cheer about." USA International Paul Emerick is named for the first time on the replacements bench having recovered from a hamstring injury. "The crowd were magnificent on Saturday," commented Head Coach Paul Turner. "I could hear them all round the ground. It's now up to us to repay them. There's a great match in store for supporters on Tuesday with the East v West derby game. They are always tremendous clashes on-field. It is a big ask to play another highly competitive game on Tuesday especially as Saturday's game was played at a furious pace and was real end-to-end stuff. But we owe the Scarlets one after they completed the double over us last year. They will bring a different challenge to that of Ulster, they have a typical Welsh all round game, are smart and organised up front, have two world class half backs and any number of flair back line players. It is a big ask for the squad but one game we are all up for." Looking ahead to Tuesday night's clash lock Ian Gough commented, "We are buoyed by our performance against reigning league champions Ulster but we have to win our home games if we are to make an impact in the Magners League. The game against the Scarlets is a tough game with international half backs Dwyane Peel and Stephen Jones a force to be reckoned with and it will take a massive effort from the whole team if we are to get a result. It is a quick turnaround for us from the Ulster game but with no Magners League game next weekend it is all or nothing for us. It will take a big effort from us to get a result but one we are all prepared to give with 10 days off after the game. Having home advantage for this match is a big plus and we have to make the most of that especially as it is a big Welsh derby clash. The support was good on Saturday night and the supporters were completely behind us and positive which gave us a big lift and we hope the crowd will again get behind us and make life difficult for the opposition." Dragons Team Craig Warlow, Gareth Wyatt, Nathan Brew, Ashley Smith, Aled Brew, Ceri Sweeney, Alex Walker, Adam Black/David Maddocks, Steve Jones, Rhys Thomas, Ian Gough, Peter Sidoli, Joe Bearman, Jamie Ringer, Colin Charvis © Replacements Ben Daly, Lee Harrison, Bryn Griffiths, Lewis Evans, Aled Thomas, Paul Emerick, Gareth Baber

Form: The Dragons' only win in their last four league games was 24-23 at Glasgow Warriors two rounds ago in their opening fixture this season. The Dragons are on an unprecedented run of three straight losses in all competitions at Rodney Parade. The Dragons have won just one of their last nine clashes against fellow Welsh Districts: 24-14 against the Ospreys at Newport on New Year's Day. Llanelli Scarlets recorded their first win of the new campaign with a 31-17 victory over Glasgow Warriors at Stradey Park last Friday. The Scarlets have not won away from home since the last time they visited Rodney Parade on 23 December 2005, on that occasion beating the Dragons 28-16. The Scarlets have won the last four matches in all competitions they have played against the Dragons.

[rugbylad]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 GL DAC, Must admit I fancy the Scarlets too!! :hope Rugbylad :ok

[rugbylad]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 DAC, what would your estimated winning margin be?

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Sorry Rugby Lad, rushed home from work and then off to the game so I missed your post: Not a great start for the thread 0/2. Dragons 22-23 Scarlets So the bet lost - The -1 on the Hadicap was bang on, resulting in a draw for me. As an aside, I am a Newport Gwent Dragons fan and I am totally gutted and exhausted by the result. God that was a painful night and since I drowned my sorrows in Guiness last night I am suffering here today at work: Match Report: A DEVASTATING three-try salvo in six minutes swung this rousing Magners League encounter decisively the way of the Scarlets.They were 16-3 down at half-time after sustaining a right old battering from a Dragons side breathing fire.But the Scarlets caught the Gwent region napping at the start of the second half with Darren Daniel, Gavin Evans and Ceiron Thomas all crossing.Ceri Sweeney briefly regained the lead for the Dragons with a double penalty strike before Stephen Jones hit back to move the Scarlets to second in the table behind champions Ulster.The Dragons picked up a losing bonus point to climb three places to third, but will be bitterly disappointed at letting this one slip after being so dominant before the break.It was a riveting encounter with the only disappointment being a crowd of 5,574.Scarlets made their intentions clear from the opening scrum of the match when outside-half Jones dodged past Sweeney.They were pulled back - harshly - for an alleged forward pass but the move emphasised they were prepared to attack the channel which they had expected to be filled by former player Mike Hercus.However, Dragons coach Paul Turner had left the United States international out knowing that the Scarlets would like to expose his defensive limitations.But the debt-ridden West Wales region had made other plans - they knew Hercus wasn't playing hours before the Dragons team became public knowledge.Sweeney switched from inside centre to outside-half with youngster Ashley Smith coming in at No 12.Turner made four changes, one positional, from the side beaten 32-25 in a thriller by league champions Ulster last weekend.Wales cap Steve Jones replaced Ben Daly at hooker back from neck trouble and Joe Bearman stepped into the back row for the injured Nic Fitisemanu.Sweeney fired them into the lead with a 10th-minute penalty after the Scarlets were caught offside following a line-out.Jones levelled matters at the quarter of an hour mark, the Dragons penalised for encroaching. Home prop Adam Black had Scarlets tighthead Deacon Manu tied up in knots and the New Zealander was penalised for collapsing the scrum.Worse was to follow for the Scarlets, young lock Lou Reed being sin-binned for pulling down a ferocious driving maul from the Dragons.Sweeney just failed to punish them with a long-range penalty, but the Dragons were fired up.Scarlets coach Phil Davies had made five changes from the XV that beat Glasgow last weekend.Ceiron Thomas came in for Martyn Thomas at full-back, Matthew Watkins for Dafydd James at wing, Manu for John Davies at tight-head, Easterby for Inoke Afeaki at blindside flanker and Alix Popham for Nathan Thomas at No 8.They suffered another blow when centre Regan King went off with blood streaming from his face in the 27th minute.And the Dragons fans went wild with joy following a stunning strike two minutes later.Acting captain Colin Charvishad a major part in it.He made the initial incursion before throwing a super pass to Sweeney. The Dragons orchestrator found Nathan Brew with a cut-out pass and the centre sprinted 25m before stretching for the touchdown when challenged. Sweeney converted from wide out and they were 10-3 up.Phil Davies showed his ruthless side by hauling suspect scrummager Manu off in the 37th minute, sending veteran John Davies on to shore it up.Sweeney landed a monster penalty and they led by 10 points. The ferocity of their tackling had the crowd wincing with Aled Brew's big hit being followed by a pile-driving effort from flanker Jamie Ringer on Watkins a couple of seconds later.They went off to a tremendous ovation as Sweeney extended their lead to 16-3 on the stroke of half-time with a wonderful long-range drop-goal that literally brought the house down.Turner's men, with its pack, Sweeney, rookie scrum-half Alex Walker and the Brew brothers at the forefront of an intense effort were good value.Scarlets were reeling and in desperate need of regrouping. Catalysts Dwayne Peel and Jones were being hunted down by a rampant Dragons pack and had no space or time to operate.Turner had identified Peel and Jones as key men and the plan he concocted to contain them had been carried out to perfection before the break.The half-time pep talk from Phil Davies saw the Scarlets explode out of the blocks.Jones was heavily involved in the build-up that led to the league's top scorer Daniel increasing his tally to five.Then their searing pace saw them score from 80m following a turnover. Full-back Ceiron Thomas showed great pace to escape and King managed to get his pass away to scorer Gavin Evans as Craig Warlow clung on.Their next came after King beat off an attempted tackle by Gareth Wyatt in midfield. He had men to spare outside him and Thomas had a simple run-in. Jones, though, only managed to convert one of them.The shell-shocked Dragons trailed by four points after an amazing turn-around.Sweeney reduced the arrears to a point with a penalty, his third, in the 52nd minute but was wide with a not-too-difficult chance to put them back into the lead three minutes later.Dragons team manager Jim McCreedy was angered after Ringer sustained a nasty wound to his nose, being ordered to his technical box by the fourth official and claret was splashed on the forehead of Iestyn Thomas as the Scarlets prop became the third player off for repairs.Sweeney regained the lead for the Gwent region in the 65th minute after Charvis was taken out off the ball but Jones replied a minute later.Dragons surprisingly put a kickable penalty into the corner rather than go for goal, but the Scarlets cleared.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Ospreys v Cardiff Blues KO7.35pm Can I go 0 for 3? How difficult is this one to call? Very, everyone shouted. There’s no value to be had at all on this game so I’m just going to go for the home win. The Ospreys had a sputtering home win against the Gunners and then, quite embarrassingly, lost to Connacht away in Ireland. The Osprey’s squad is jam packed full of stars and they have yet to gel, it could be tonight. The Blues (spit) on the other hand have only played on game and were quite unconvincing against a very under strength Munster team, that Munster team only narrowly avoid a loss at home to the Borderererereres. This could be a feisty affair but we do expect the home team to win. Form: The Ospreys lost 10-15 in Galway last Friday but at Liberty Stadium they have lost just once in 2006: 17-19 to Ulster on 26 May. The Swansea based side beat the Scarlets 25-13 at Liberty Stadium the last time they faced a fellow Welsh District to end a four game losing run against teams from Wales. Cardiff Blues had a bye week last weekend and have won their only match so far: 22-13 at home to Munster on 1 September. The Blues have lost their last two away games at Ulster and Munster but have beaten fellow Welsh Districts in five of their last six such encounters. The last four clashes between these two sides have resulted in a win for the home team on the day. Ospreys: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Nikki Walker, 13 Sonny Parker, 12 Andrew Bishop, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Gavin Henson, 9 Justin Marshall, 8 Ryan Jones, 7 Jonathan Thomas, 6 Andy Lloyd, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Brent Cockbain, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Duncan Jones ©. Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Paul James, 18 Lyndon Bateman, 19 Alun Wyn Jones, 20 Richard Pugh, 21 James Hook, 22 Stefan Terblanche.

Cardiff Blues (spit): 15 Rhys Williams, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush ©, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Rob Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Tufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins.Replacements: 16 Gary Powell, 17 Duane Goodfield, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Robin Sowden-Taylor, 20 Wayne Evans, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Tom Riley. Date: Wednesday, September 13Kick-off: 19:35 (18:35 GMT)Venue: Liberty Stadium Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU)Touch Judges: Hugh Watkins (WRU), James Jones (WRU) Ospreys outright at 8/11 @ Sporting Odds

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Connacht v Scarlets

Blimey this is a hard one to call, Conn are on fire at the moment and deserve their high placing in the Magners League. Scarlets on the other hand are coming off the back of a bruising encounter with the Gwent Dragons.

There’s no doubt about it, this is going to be another closely contested and hard fought game, whether Scarlets will be up for another one so soon after the Dragons game has yet to be seen but I like some of the changes they have made to their squad with a few players returning to their favoured positions. Conn are to be congratulated on their win against the Sprays last week but as seen on Wednesday, the Sprays are in utter dire form. Conn certainly won’t be facing a team of pretty boys with no warm up games under their belts.

Preview:

For the second game running the Scarlets have named a side showing five changes to the previous starting line-up.

There are also two positional changes with captain Simon Easterby moving to the openside to allow James Bater a start on the blindside while Matthew Watkins moves back to his preferred position of centre as Dafydd James returns to the left wing.

Elsewhere, Clive Stuart-Smith gets a run-out at scrum-half and Darren Daniel at fly-half while Phil John replaces Iestyn Thomas at loose-head prop and Adam Jones takes over from Lou Reed in the second row.

Nathan Thomas comes in for Alix Popham at number eight.

There's also a welcome return to Wales winger Mark Jones on the bench.

"We are aware of the challenge we face against Connacht," said Scarlets Director of Rugby Phil Davies.

"They beat the Ospreys last weekend and have won two from two so are obviously in top form. We have great respect for them. They are the type of side who never give up."

Meanwhile, Connacht have unsurprisingly announced the same starting side which defeated the Ospreys last week.

There is one change on the bench though, with centre John Hearty coming into the side in place of Darren Yapp, who was troubled during the week by a leg injury.

Coach Michael Bradley is hoping that the Connacht fans can reproduce the atmosphere in which the Ospreys fell to defeat last week.

"The quality of the Connacht support has always been excellent, what we need is more of them to increase the volume," said Bradley.

"It was superb on Friday night the way the supporters got right behind the side, especially in the second-half when the game was hanging in the balance.

"That backing has to be worth a score or two. Let's hope we can build on the Friday night experience and the fan base will continue to grow in the coming weeks."

Form: Connacht have made the perfect start to the new season with back to back wins against the Reivers and the Ospreys. Added to this the Galwaymen also won the last game of the 2005-06 season against Glasgow, with this current run representing the best winning sequence Connacht have achieved in the league since 2002/03. Llanelli Scarlets won their second match in four days at Newport last night and are going for three wins in a row in the competition for the first time since the turn of the year. The Scarlets have not won in Ireland since an 18-11 victory against Connacht at Athlone in February 2005. The Scarlets have the slight edge in previous league meetings between the two, gaining three wins to Connacht’s two with one match drawn. Recommendation:

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Ospreys v Bordererererers

Well, the Sprays have been, to put it politely, utter sh** since their opening game of the season against Edinburgh. The pretty boys have failed to shine (hair gel excepted) and none of the new faces have gelled (insert hair pun here). That said, they have a great squad on paper and I really can’t believe that Sporting Odds are only giving them a –6 cap. They could quite easily put a bucketload on the Bordererereres tonight and they owe it to themselves, the management and more importantly the fans. There are no prima donnas on the team tonight – I fully expect a much better performance.

Preview Border Reivers' head coach Steve Bates has made only two changes to the team that started last Saturday's game against Munster for the Magners League match against the Ospreys on Friday.

Fullback Calum MacRae misses his first competitive appearance in 16 games due to a thigh strain which he suffered during the narrow 9-8 defeat.

Steve Jones fills the full-back berth, and Gregor Townsend returns to the starting line-up after being selected on the bench last week due to a stomach bug.

"We really improved our performance against Munster, we really could have won that game, but our focus all week has been entirely on tomorrow's game against The Ospreys which is going to be another great opportunity to develop our team play," said Bates.

As expected, the Ospreys have changed almost their entire team for the trip, and are still awaiting tests to find out which of the battered troops are ready to take a place on the bench.

Shaun Connor and James Hook line up at 10 and 12 respectively, with Gavin Henson almost certain to sit out the game completely.

"We were pleased with what was a much improved team performance on Wednesday night, but the players are pretty battered and bruised after a physical encounter," said assistant coach Sean Holley.

"Needless to say we have a strong squad this year and we are looking forward to seeing a number of different combinations on show against the Borders.

"The Borders are continuing to evolve into a threatening team and will be looking for their first win of the season.

"Our players will need to perform to the best of their ability to gain any advantage over them.

"Although it has physically been a difficult week the mood in our camp remains excellent. There is a strong work ethic amongst the boys and a serious intent to perform in this match."

Form: The Ospreys won on Wednesday evening against the Blues, and have won their last five matches they have played against Scottish opposition. Border Reivers have won just once in their last nine outings: 43-5 at home to Newport Gwent Dragons on 26 May, whilst the Reivers have not won on the road since a 20-8 victory at Glasgow on 3 March. Border Reivers have never won a match in Wales in 17 previous trips in all competitions. The Ospreys have won four of the six previous meetings they have had with the Reivers, although both encounters last season were won by the home side on the day.

Ospreys: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Richard Mustoe, 13 Tal Selley, 12 James Hook, 11 Jonny Vaughton, 10 Shaun Connor, 9 Martin Roberts, 8 Andy Lloyd, 7 Steve Tandy, 6 Lee Beach, 5 Lyndon Bateman, 4 Alun Wyn Jones, 3 Andrew Millward, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James ©, Replacements: 16 Barry Williams, 17 Cai Griffiths, 18 Mike Powell. The rest of the replacements bench will be finalised just ahead of the match

Border Reivers: 15 Steve Jones, 14 Garry Law, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Ben MacDougall, 11 Mark Robertson, 10 Gregor Townsend, 9 Chris Cusiter ©, 8 Ross Beattie, 7 Scott Gray, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Craig Hamilton, 4 Opeta Palepoi, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr. Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 Stuart Grimes, 19 Andy Miller, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Simon Danielli, 22 Dougie Flockhart.

Date: Friday, September 15 Kick-off: 19:10 (18:10 GMT) Venue: Liberty Stadium Referee: David Keane (Ireland) Touch judges: David Bodilly, Neil Howells Recommendation 10 Pts on Ospreys -6 at Sporting Odds

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 2 for 2 tonight, which is nice. Check my blog.

VC Bet, in our opinion are offering a very generous 6 points to the Scarlets.

Conn 15 - Scarlets 37

Recommendation 10 Pts on Ospreys -6 at Sporting Odds

Ospreys 30 -10 Borders :cow

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Leinster v Cardiff Blues

Another tricky one here, Leinster aren’t at full strength and the Blues are recovering after their exertions against the Ospreys, who notably went on to a convincing win against the Borders last night. Leinster have got a couple of their Irish stars back, Hickie for example who will add something to their back line. The Blues, very importantly I think, have their 3^rd choice hooker playing tonight I’ve been doing a little trawling the Fans forums and the Leinster fans are quietly confident but this was causing a little consternation on the Blues site:

To be honest i have no idea why hes done it. My thoughts though are, Dia was in the press over here saying he wanted to win two out of the three games that opened the season. I personally think he always targeted the first game and the Os game to win and never had any intention of going for the Leinster game. If thats not the case maybe with the injuries he has written it off and decided not to risk the players to injury when they aint going to win.

This kind of seals the deal for me. Dai is resting players for the EDF cup and the HEC

Form: Leinster’s season began last weekend with a 14-20 defeat at Edinburgh, but at home Leinster have won seven in a row in all competitions at three different grounds. Cardiff are playing away to the Ospreys on Wednesday evening and have not won in Ireland since an 18-8 victory at Connacht on 22 January 2005. Both encounters between the two teams last season were won by the home side on the day.

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Luke Fitzgerald, 13 Kieran Lewis, 12 Michael Berne, 11 Denis Hickie, 10 Felipe Contepomi ©, 9 Chris Whitaker, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Niall Ronan, 6 Stephen Keogh, 5 Owen Finegan, 4 Adam Byrnes, 3 Will Green, 2 Harry Vermaas, 1 Ronan McCormack. Replacements: 16 Reggie Corrigan, 17 Bernard Jackman, 18 Devin Toner, 19 Keith Gleeson, 20 Guy Easterby, 21 Christian Warner, 22 Gary Brown.

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Chris Czekaj, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Marc Stcherbina, 11 Mosese Luveitasau, 10 Nick Macleod, 9 Wayne Evans, 8 Xavier Rush ©, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Mark Lewis, 5 James Goode, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Gary Powell, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 John Yapp. Replacements: 16 Taufaao Felise, 17 Ross Johnson, 18 Robert Sidoli, 19 Scott Morgan, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 David Flanagan

Date: Saturday, September 16 Kick-off: 19:30 (18:30 GMT) Venue: Donnybrook Referee: Andy Macpherson (Scotland)

Recommendation: With love to VC Bet for the minus 7 they are giving to Leinster - Love you Guy's. 10 Pts Leinster -7

[Gman]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 DAC, Just found this thread again. Good job :ok Unlucky with the Leinster Blues game, that's 2 already were the bookies got the spread exactly right. :puke I'll try and keep up to date with this thread and maybe throw some of my own thoughts in and all.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7

I'll try and keep up to date with this thread and maybe throw some of my own thoughts in and al

Please do, GMAN. It's kind of tricky at the moment what with the Irish teams not having their internationals back and the EDF and HEC games are also going to make things tricky, still, we made a good profit last year and it's a marathon not a sprint.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Cardiff Blues v Glasgow Warriors

Only 10 points eh?

Well, it’s not as though we haven’t been stung by the handicaps so far this season but to be honest, Blues should beat the Warriors convincingly. The Warriors had a great win against the second string Turnipstanis last week and that should bolster them but to be honest, an Iceland XV could beat the Munster Reserves at the moment.

The Blues are notoriously slow starters and now need to lift their game to another level if they are going to compete for honours. Their first three matches have contained an unbelievable amount of handling errors and the back line moves were not working, I’m willing to bet that tonight will see an improved performance. Don’t forget, they were very unlucky to lose against a full strength Ospreys team at the Liberty and just got out edged out against Leinster in an always tricky away game.

Form: Cardiff Blues have slipped to successive defeats away at the Ospreys and Leinster. However, at home they have set a new Blues record with six wins in a row since losing to Edinburgh at the Arms Park on 27 January. Glasgow Warriors ended a three match losing streak with a 24-13 victory over Munster at Hughenden on Friday. The Warriors have not won successive league games since beating Connacht and Edinburgh last November-December. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last ten encounters against Welsh opponents since April 2005: 17-10 over the Scarlets at Firhill on 12 May. Glasgow have made eight previous visits to the Arms Park for a

competition match and have won just once: 44-35 in the League on 31 August 2002

Cardiff Blues: 15 Ben Blair, 14 Mosese Luveitasau, 13 Tom Riley, 12 Tom Shanklin, 11 Chris Czekaj, 10 Nicky Robinson, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Xavier Rush (Capt), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Scott Morgan, 5 Robert Sidoli, 4 Deiniol Jones, 3 Toufaao Filise, 2 T Rhys Thomas, 1 Gethin Jenkins. Replacements: 16 John Yapp, 17 Gareth Williams, 18 James Goode, 19 Mark Lewis, 20 Ed Fairhurst, 21 Nick Macleod, 22 Dai Flannigan.

Glasgow: 15 Francisco Leonelli, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Andrew Henderson, 12 Scott Barrow, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Dan Parks, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a. Replacements: 16 Eric Milligan, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Calum Forrester, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Colin Gregor, 22 Sean Marsden.Date: Friday, September 22

Venue: Cardiff Arms Park Kick-off: 18:40 (17:40 GMT) Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland) Touch judges: Phil Fear, Scott Fleming 10 Points on the spread at -10 Skybet.com

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Handicap League Betting

Newport Gwent Dragons + 28 Points 9/1

Now, I’m liking this. It doesn’t look like Skybet.com have updated their odds and I’ve just checked this morning and they are still offering the bet. The Dragons are no where near as bad as everyone thought them to be and if they win a winnable game up in Borders tonight then this bet looks all the more tasty.

Last year we finished 30 points behind the eventual winners, Ulster. We have a stronger team, and more importantly, a better attitude than last year and if we pick up the odd losing bonus points away and take advantage of us not having to commit teams to the HEC like our league counterparts have to then I can see this bet running very close.

9/1 is huge.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Skybet are also offering this each way as well. Great value IMHO.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7

Scr Munster 14/1	+12 Llanelli 6/1
+4 Ospreys 7/1	+25 Glasgow 10/1
+4 Leinster 8/1	+25 Borders 16/1
+6 Ulster 6/1	+28 Dragons 9/1
+8 Cardiff 10/1	+30 Connacht 11/2
+10 Edinburgh 8/1

This from Skybet: Can someone help me out here - if you back all five of the most likely winners - you are guaranteed to make at least a point profit? Ulster Ospreys Scarlets Leinster Edinburgh And to be honest - it just looks as though it's going to be between Ulster, Scarlets and leinster.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7

10 Points on the spread at -10 Skybet.com

:cow

[davidmphill]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Just come across this again DAC. Nice work and good luck for the rest of the season.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Cheers David, thanks. September Celtic League Betting Summary – All Stakes £10.00

Dragons v Scarlets – Lose - £10.00

Ospreys v Blues – Win - £3.85

Conn v Scarlets – Win + £15.24

Ospreys v Borders – Win + £24.33

Leinster v Blues – Lost + £14.33

Blues v Glasgow – Win + £33.42

I Haven’t included the Ulster victory I quoted as a steal as I didn’t do a write up on it.

We are heading off into EDF Cup and HEC Terroritry, I may post a few bets.

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Inter Pro Build Up..... [url=http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7493/3772/1600/bab_turnips1-715629.1.jpg]It’s Interpro Time! This is what celtic rugby is all about – the annual renewal of provincial rugby’s oldest rivalries. This weekend sees the mighty Gringos travel south on a raid to sack the Turnips. There’ll be buckets of turnip soup available in the wilds of the north next week. Also, Connacht, struggling with uncontrollable nose bleeds from the unprecedented altitude they’ve ascended, will host the Princes of European rugby in the imposingly impressive bit of old field that isthe Galway dog track. On Friday evening, before the crowds arrive for the race meeting, Leinster will be hoping to get their season off the ground when they face a Connacht team thatwill be reasonably confident following their recent run of good form. Leinster have most of their international stars available and surely they will play somepart in the game against the Mountainy Men. The one positive about the return of the stars, is that Cheika won’t be able to over play his raft of mates that are currently infecting the Leinster game – the fat useless bastards. On Saturday, Munster are going to be humped

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Tricky Weekend….. As already posted, it’s the Irish Inter-Provincial games this weekend which makes for difficult decisions, it’s also the Scottish derby up North. Hmmmm. Leinster and Munster both have their full quota of international players back and rumour has it that the guy’s coming back are chomping at the bit at the chance of actually playing again. Connacht v Leinster - Friday 29 September Brian O'Driscoll returns to captain the Leinster side for his first competitive start of the season alongside the returning Shane Horgan - who he partners at centre - and Girvan Dempsey, for Leinster at Connacht in the Magners league on Friday. Luke Fitzgerald retains his place on the wing, while both Gordon D'Arcy and Malcolm O'Kelly have been named on a strong-looking bench which includes ex-Connacht duo Ronan McCormack and Bernard Jackman Form: Mark McHugh salvaged a 22-all draw for Connacht last Friday night against Edinburgh with a superb 87th minute penalty goal from 40 metres out. This game is Connacht’s 7th home game in their last eight matches and they are due to play two more gamesat the Sportsground before this current home run ends! Leinster’s previous six league games have gone; won, lost, won, lost, won, lost, but away from home they have won just once in their last four trips: 31-8 at Edinburgh on 26 May. Recommendation: As I've previously mentioned lots of times, Conn are a notoriously good and brave side at home but I was impressed with Leinster last weekend at the Scarlets and having BOD, their talisman back in the side only pushes more more towards a decent Leinster win. William Hill are offering a converted score to Conn so I'm taking Leinster at -7

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Edinburgh v Glasgow - Friday 29th October 2006

It’s Lyn Howell’s first game in charge of the Gunners tonight and as with most changes in management in Rugby the Edinburgh lads will be doing their utmost to impress their new coach.

The Gunners team is relatively unchanged tonight he Glasgow team for the inter-city clash is a much-changed one following the defeat to Cardiff Blues last week, with four changes in the backs (one positional) and a bench with only two personnel remaining.

In the backs, Sean Marsden wins his second start for the Warriors, this time at fullback, with Graeme Morrison rejoining the squad at outside centre, Andy Henderson reverting to inside centre and stand-off Colin Gregor getting his first start of the season. Form: Edinburgh Gunners are unbeaten in their last three Magners League matches, and have won all four previous games they have played at Murrayfield in the league against fellow Scottish teams. Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last five league encounters: 24-13 over Munster at Hughenden on 15 September. The Warriors have won just once away from home in any competition since April 2005: 26-20 also against Munster at Thomond Park on 18 February 2006. The last five matches between the two have gone in favour of the home side on the day, whilst the last Glasgow win in Edinburgh was 33-26 at Myreside in the Welsh-Scottish League on 15 September 2000.

Recommendation: It's probably going to be very tight first half but at the end of the Day the gunners do have the better squad on paper, it's also at Murrayfield which is worth a score at least. Glasgow do have a lot of huff and puff but nothing I've seen so far can convince me that their backs can break through the line. Edinburgh -9 at Sporting Odds

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Connacht v Ulster The red hand gang are sending down a very strong squad to face their Irish bogey team, Connacht. Ulster, to be frank, were shite last week against Munster and missed vital kicks at vital times – which is most unlike them. Connacht ran a good Leinster outfit very close like week and the 31-16 score line doesn’t take into account that Leinster ran in two converted tries in injury time. Ulster did try and play an attractive game against Munster and I believe that their backs are good enough to get through the decent Connacht defense, could be one on those games but I can also see Ulster gaining a bonus point victory if they get off to a good start, they will also climb back to the top of the league table should they win tonight. Trimble is on the wing, which is interesting but Ulster will be able to get the ball to him and that could devastating for the Conns. Form: Connacht are winless in their last three Magners League encounters against the Scarlets, Edinburgh and Leinster. Connacht have won just one of their last 15 encounters against fellow Irish Provinces: 22-12 in this equivalent fixture last season. Champions Ulster have stuttered a little of late with two defeats in their last three matches. Away from home against fellow Irish sides the Ulstermen have won just once since September 2004: 20-17 over Munster at Cork on 3 December 2005. A win would take Ulster back to the top of the Magners League. Connacht ended a four match losing run against Ulster with their 22-12 win at the Sportsground on New Year’s Eve last season. Connacht: 15 Daniel Riordan, 14 Matt Mostyn, 13 Darren Yapp, 12 Gavin Williams, 11 Keith Matthews, 10 Mark McHugh, 9 Chris Keane, 8 Colm Rigney, 7 Ray Ofisa, 6 John Muldoon, 5 Andrew Farley ©, 4 David Gannon, 3 Ray Hogan, 2 John Fogarty, 1 Brett Wilkinson.Replacements: 16 Adrian Flavin, 17 Brett Sturgess, 18 Michael Swift, 19 Matt Lacey, 20 Tom Tierney, 21 Paul Warwick, 22 Ted Robinson. Ulster: 15 Bryn Cunningham, 14 Andrew Maxwell, 13 Kevin Maggs, 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 David Humphreys, 9 Isaac Boss, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Stephen Ferris, 6 Neil Best, 5 Matt McCullough, 4 Justin Harrison, 3 Bryan Young, 2 Rory Best, 1 Justin Fitzpatrick.Replacements: 16 Paul Shields, 17 Declan Fitzpatrick, 18 Tim Barker, 19 Kieron Dawson, 20 Neil McMillan, 21 Kieran Campbell, 22 Scott Young. Recommendation: 10 points Ulster –6 @ Sporting Odds

[DAC]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Glasgow v Borders Well, it may just be me but I think the Glasgow Warriors are improving, they were desperately unlucky last week away in Edinburgh and went down at Murrayfield to an injury time drop goal and lets not forget the week before they stomped all over Munster. Fair enough, Cussiter is back for the Borders and he could make a difference but you need more than one guy to win a game for you. This will be a classic situation of “Forwards decide who win the game, the backs decide by how much” – Rory Lamont comes back for the Warriors, a player who has been sorely missed. Form: Glasgow Warriors have won just one of their last six matches: 24-13 over Munster at Hughenden on 15 September, whilst the Warriors have also won only one of their last six games against fellow Scottish opponents: 46-6 over Edinburgh at Firhill on 4 December 2005. Border Reivers have slipped to four successive defeats and have won just once on the road since last October: 20-8 in this equivalent fixture at Firhill last season. The Reivers did the league double over the Warriors last season, winning 24-13 at Netherdale and 20-8 at Firhill. Glasgow Warriors: 15 Rory Lamont, 14 Hefin O'Hare, 13 Graeme Morrison, 12 Andrew Henderson, 11 Thom Evans, 10 Colin Gregor, 9 Graeme Beveridge, 8 John Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Andrew Wilson, 5 Alastair Kellock (capt), 4 Andy Newman, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Fergus Thomson, 1 Justin Va'a.Replacement: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Kevin Tkachuk, 18 Dan Turner, 19 Donnie Macfadyen, 20 Sam Pinder, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Scott Barrow. Border Reivers: 15 Calum MacRae, 14 Simon Danielli, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 Garry Law, 11 Mark Robertson, 10 Steve Jones, 9 Chris Cusiter (capt), 8 Ross Beattie, 7 Scott Gray/Andy Miller, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Opeta Palepoi, 4 Craig Hamilton, 3 Bruce Douglas, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Gavin Kerr. Replacements: 16 Steve Scott, 17 Ed Kalman, 18 John Dalziel, 19 Scott Newlands, 20 Brendan McKerchar, 21 Scott Gray/Andy Miller, 22 Lee Kibble/Gregor Townsend Recommendation: I actually expect Glasgow to romp this - Glasgow -6 @ Stan James. Nice

[rugbylad]

Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Nice write-ups DAC :ok Will be following with interest! Good luck :hope