Earn-1000aWeek Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Brief Intro: A friend has wanted me to post on forums for a while, so I have been lurking for a few months on a couple to see how things work. It is unreal how tempting it is to just dash into someone's post and respond (whether to agree on a good point or strongly disagree on rookie mistakes). We weeded through maybe 30 forums and picked 17 to post in to start. He told me I can just copy and paste my write-up, but I can see that getting old, because I will bet half-time spreads on occasion in football and especially in basketball. I will try and downsize the number of places I post at as the weeks roll on based on how the forums respond to me. Note: A few moderators don't seem to like my username, so I will probably get a new one by the end of the week (and already am using a new one on 2 forums because they didn't like my handle, figuring me for a "spammer"). LOL. For the record, I am not a spammer, I am not a tout, I am not looking to acquire an "email list", I have NOTHING to sell and I am NOT looking to go tout and never will (because 4 years ago I was a regular poster under a different name and was recruited by 3 guys to start a new website service. These clowns made tons of promises, etc, but the bottom line was: Disaster. I never got paid, their website sucked, and even though I had a mediocre 2 months (hit about 52%), I HATED picking for "customers" because believe it or not, based on my success at the forum, a lot of people followed me to the crappy website and bought a package from these clowns because of me. I hated the pressure and will NEVER do that again. I went underground after that and have avoided the forum scene for the most part, but lurked from time to time. Reason to start posting again: after being prodded a bit by a buddy, I have decided to try and show people my style of handicapping/betting style. After lurking for several months, I don't see anybody doing my style. I don't see hardly anyone who has a plan to make money at this. Posters just throw picks out there, some with reasoning, many with no reasoning. Most posters are betting units. Huh? Where can you bet units? Is this a currency in Zimbabwe or maybe an Asian country I have never heard of? Who bets units? I bet dollars. American dollars. Goals: I have goals. My goal is to make $1000 a week. Every week. Do I win $1000 every week? Of course not. Not even close. But after 52 weeks, I will have met my goal. Background: I am starting my 5th year doing this "system" if you will, this week. There have been major tweaks along the way, and I will keep tweaking it as I go. Any "betting amount system" that stays hardfast will not work over time. You need to tweak it constantly to win consistently. When the NBA starts, I do have a few system plays that I will show people, too, that are NOT connected to my weekly bets, the system plays will be a separate tally not connected with the $1000 a week goal. Brief synopsis of $1000-a-week system: The week starts every Monday. I have found that the fewer plays you make, the better the odds of winning in the long run. So with that said, if I win $1000 by Tuesday or Wednesday, I am DONE for the week. Period. That was how I started 4 years ago, but I have tweaked that, too. Also, many times, I have gotten to $800 or $900 won by Wednesday, and then just couldn't get to $1000, and ended up the week being up $400 or $500, so some weeks, if I hit $800 or $900 early in the week, I will quit for the week. Getting "fixated" on that $1000 number can be detrimental at times, I have found. Also, I have losing weeks. If I am down $2000 half-way through a week, I may reset my goal for the week to only lose $1500. And then I spread the $1500 or whatever I lost out over 10 weeks or 20 weeks, so if I lose $2000 one week and spread it out over 20 weeks, then I need to win $1100 a week for the next 20 weeks. It is a built-in money management feature designed to keep me from chasing and getting fixated on that $1000 number. I will chase at times. But I chase responsibly. Tweak to the system: If I meet my goal by midweek and "quit" for the week, BUT, I feel I might be on a hot streak, I will keep betting, but will start the following week "early". And generall I'll reduce my bet size because I have more days to work with. If it is baseball season, though, usually I just quit for the week. Discipline is the key here. Recommendation to the viewers: Do not, I repeat, do NOT coat-tail my plays. Just watch. Remember this is the Internet. You don't know me. You do not know my credentials. I have no PROVEN track record on any forum. I could be some dumbass huckleberry who tells tall tales. Do NOT coat-tail my plays. Watch me for 20 weeks, 30 weeks, maybe 52 weeks and allow me to establish a track record. Then think about coat-tailing me. I have been handicapping for about 20 years, but how do you KNOW this? You don't. I could be a teenager for all you know, picking games out of a hat. DO NOT COAT-TAIL ME Just watch for a few months and if what I do makes sense, then maybe you can start coat-tailing. But wait at least 3-to-6 months or more. I try to exercise discipline when I bet, so make sure you do. Do NOT blindly follow me right from Day 1, that would NOT be smart at all as I have no recorded track record. Please wait at least 3 months. By then, you should have a "feel" for what I am doing and then you can make a judgment on whether you want to try coat-tailing a little with smaller amounts on a trial basis. I am not big on doing huge write-ups and time may not allow for write-ups every time, but I will always try and give at least a sentence or 2 of reasoning. Tonight: I don't like the card at all. At all. I will go with: Boston/Oakland over 9.5 --- Esteban Loaiza has been awesome his last 3 starts and I feel that it is time for him to regress to his normal mean and Kason Gabbard is making his 2nd big-league start and only went 5 1/3 in his debut, so this exposes a bad Boston bullpen tonight since Gabbard probably will not go deep. The Red Sox have not gone over 7 straight (with a push in there) so they are about "due" for an Over and overdue to get their sticks moving. A 16 mph breeze blowing out to RF in Oakland sure won't hurt. I use Pinnacle most of the time and I will use the available line at the time I post so for this game, the bet is: $107 to win $100 on Bos/Oak over 9.5 Record 0-0 This officially starts Week 1. I will start slow this week, as again, I despise the betting card tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted August 28, 2006 Share Posted August 28, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Most posters are betting units. Huh? Where can you bet units? Is this a currency in Zimbabwe or maybe an Asian country I have never heard of? Who bets units? I bet dollars. American dollars. The reason most puntes use units is that everyone has different financial situations. If I say my bets are between 1 and 10 units, you know a 10pt bet is a very strong fancy. If someone says Im having £200 on so and so it means nothing. For me that would be a very confident bet, to Bill Gates itd be insignificant to the extreme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Yeah, exactly. I'd say there'd even be a big enough cross-section on this relatively small site (the US sports part anyway) who would say that for $1000 a week they wouldn't even bother to click the mouse to se what you are doing. For others $1000 a week would be totally unrealistic, as a hell of a lot of $10 bets! Basically one man's $5000 bet is another man's $5...hence people talk in units, as no-one cares, or even wants to know how much $$ anyone else is physically wagering. Not trying to flame you out here, cause the system obviously works for you, nd I can see it would take a fair amount of self-control...but I'm not so keen on the quitting early in the week idea. As you rightly point out, you aren't going to make $1000 each and every week...in fact some weeks you might well lose $1000 (or more even, do you quit at -1000?...not sledging, serious question)... ...so I don't see the point of limiting yourself. There is simply NO connection between games...no such thing as a good run or bad...so there is no reason what-so-ever to not take two bets that you think will win on Thursday, and one on Saturday if' you've already got you $$ by Tuesday. Aanyway, good luck with it...I'll be keeping an eye out for your plays...esp. NFL and NBA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnZ_A Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Most posters are betting units. Huh? Where can you bet units? Is this a currency in Zimbabwe or maybe an Asian country I have never heard of? Who bets units? I bet dollars. American dollars. I think your credibilty just flew out the window with this ridiculous statement. I myself call it pts (points)....1 point/unit could be $1, $10, $100, $1000 or $10000. As Taza stated....Basically one man's $5000 bet is another man's $5...hence people talk in units, as no-one cares, or even wants to know how much $$ anyone else is physically wagering. Plus its very bad ettiquete on here to use actual $$ physical amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted August 29, 2006 Share Posted August 29, 2006 Day 2, the trek continues I have a new userid as people just want to believe that I am a spammer or a tout, which I promise I am not, I hate both of those types of people, I am just looking to share some plays and a betting style that has goals. Also keep in mind that the "ultimate" goal is to win $1000 a week. That "ultimate" goal keeps me focused on the actual goal, which is to win money and be up a fairly good amount at the end of the year. I have NOT averaged $1000 a week for 3 straight years now. BUT, That is always my goal. Again, just watch me and DO NOT COAT-TAIL me for at least 3 months and get a feel for how this works. Tonight: The plays: Florida Marlins --- $200 to win $214 NY MetsColorado game over 10 --- $204 to win $200 Toronto/Cleveland under 9.5 --- $200 to win $206 Away Teams Pick --- $100 to win $150 Reasoning: 1) I have to fade Mulder until he shows that he is anywhere near 100%. 2) There is a slight breeze blowing out at Coors and both pitchers tonight have been in a slight rut as of late, and despite Coors being a stone Under field all year, I have to like this Mets lineup to reverse that trend. 3) Chacin is not as bad as his last outing and Sabbathia has been on a roll and there is a stiff breeze blowing straight in. 4) because the Home Teams have slaughtered the Away teams by 29, 15, 22 & 19 runs the last 4 days and although it is not unusual at all for the Home Teams or Away Teams to get streaky covering a bunch in a row (Home Teams covered 8 straight earlier this month and the Away Teams covered 6 straight earlier this month), it is fairly rare to have 4 straight blowouts like this and when this situation pops up, the trend is to go the other way. Record (0-1, -$107) do NOT coat-tail. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Day 3, Earn$1000aWeek, 3-1, +$513 Record 3-1, +$513 Philadelphia/Washington under 9.5, $210 to win $200 NY Mets/Colorado over 10.5, $212 to win $200 Reasoning: 1) I like Cole Hamels to bounce back strong from a horrible start last time out and Hamels has a 3.38 ERA during night games, while his ERA is over 8 in day games. Big park in DC and a breeze blowing in from left and maybe straight in by game-time and possibly some sloppy weather. Ramon Ortiz has been horrible his last 3 starts, so it is about time for a start that will bring him more towards his mean. 2) Tonight, we again have a slight breeze blowing out at Coors and yes, Coors has been an Under park all year, but that trend is reversing itself the last month and I cannot help but like this Mets lineup to keep scoring runs in this series. Dave Williams and Josh Fogg are struggling and Coors is no place to get back on track, usually. Do Not coat-tail these plays. Just watch for a few months. Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamse81 Posted August 30, 2006 Share Posted August 30, 2006 Re: Day 3, Earn$1000aWeek, 3-1, +$513 GL Ernie :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: Day 3, Earn$1000aWeek, 3-1, +$513 2 nice picks, well done Ernie :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: Day 3, Earn$1000aWeek, 3-1, +$513 going well so far. well played. I think it might generate more interest as a single thread in the systems and strategies forum though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 5-1, +$913, the trek continues, but I am taking the day and maybe the week off. Record 5-1, +$913. A few people have asked about me being 5-2. It is 5-1. Explanation: On the Away Teams bet on Tuesday, the Yankees game was rained out, and any time you have a rain-out on the Grand Salami Side or Total bet (mine was the side, obviously) the play is ALWAYS graded as "No action". Hope that answers the question. But yes, please folks, if I do make a math error on my money up or down or if I list my record wrong, PLEASE point it out to me, accurate record-keeping is important to me and i will have typos from time to time probably. Hopefully not. But I basically try and make a certain amount a week, and if I make it, I try and quit for the week and start over the next week. I will try and answer your questions when I see them. The key to winning at gambling is discipline and money management, so I am going to exercise that tonight even though I like one baseball game and one NCAA football game. I love the 4 pro sports, but also do some NCAA stuff. I may take the rest of the week off and re-start on Monday. If I reallly like a game between now and and Sunday, I may bet it and I'll post it here. No guarantees. I am happy with my performance this week, so I can wait till next week to start betting again. There is no rule that says you have to bet every day. "Bet with you head and not over it" is a rule I have. "Bet what you can afford to lose" is another rule of mine. So I will pass on tonight's card because I feel it is prudent for me to do so, even though the temptation is there to bet a NCAA football game and one baseball run-line. Every week will not even be close to this easy, but these are the weeks I enjoy. $913 is enough for me this week. Why? Because I have been here before over the years, and a few times, I finished these weeks at +$400 or +$500 because I would lose a few $100 bets in a row to try and get to $1000. There is NO NEED for me to make $1000 EVERY week. $913 is just fine for Week 1. But this allows me to get to the "tweak" in my "system" and that is, if I want to start a "side pot" to get a head start on Week 2. If I like something between now and Sunday, I will bet it, and post it, and call it a "side pot" bet, NOT COUNTING towards Week 1 (Week 1 is officially done), but it would towards Week 2. All bets I post count. But Week 1 is in the books. I don't plan on betting tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: Day 3, Earn$1000aWeek, 3-1, +$513 going well so far. well played. I think it might generate more interest as a single thread in the systems and strategies forum though. If somebody wants to merge my threads into one thread and put it in that section, I will do that. Just let me know and I'll post wherever you want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted August 31, 2006 Share Posted August 31, 2006 Re: 5-1, +$913, the trek continues, but Ernie, can you keep all your picks in the same thread please? It's easier for everybody else to see all your picks from day 1 - present day and doesn't clutter up the other sports forum. Cheers :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnZ_A Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Looks like i was wrong about your credibility. Great Stuff :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GB80 Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Nice start Ernie! Looking forward to seeing how you do. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted September 1, 2006 Share Posted September 1, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 Brilliant start mate - will keep following with interest! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: The trek begins, Week 1 I will keep everything inn ONE thread. No problem. I am going to try and low-key it for a while. May have been a bit too boisterous in my debut last week and although most forums were super-nice, 1 or 2 responded super-negatively so I will consider myself lucky to have had a good week and I will tone it down for a while and just make picks and hopefully reach most of my weekly goals. I plan on taking the free $1000 Mansion SportsBook bet this week (today, actually), and then I'll bet the other side (Miami, for about half) elsewhere and look to get a free $450 or so, which will help my Week 2 goal out a bit. Hey, free money is free money. I'll post that bet and the hedge when I make it. Today, I like this one: Houston Astros, $159 to win $150. Reasoning: Houston has won 12 straight games over the Phillies. They swept them all 4 series the last 2 years. Cole Hamels is coming off a gem, but his ERA is 8.53 during the day, while it is 3.13 at night. Clemens shows no signs of slowing down and the Phillies bullpen has been terrible, blowing 3 leads in the 9th inning and another lead in the 10th this past week and then they also lost in extra innings yesterday in Game 2. Week 2: Record 0-0 Week 1: Record 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Change the thread title as appropriate as this is apparently gonna be one long thread;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted September 4, 2006 Share Posted September 4, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... GL Ernie :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... How do you change the title of the thread? -------------------------------------------------- Tough loss yesterday, but aren't all losses tough? I guess some are tougher than others. Minnesota Twins -1.5, $137 to win $100 Reasoning: The Twins have won 10 straight games Santana has started (3 of those by 1 run) and 19 of his last 20 starts (7 of those were 1-run wins). Jae Seo hasn't pitched since August 20, so don't expect him to beyond 6 innings (which he rarely does anyway) and the D'Rays bullpen is horrible. If this bet looks like a loss, I may chase with the A's game over late. Week 2: 0-1, -$159. Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 5, 2006 Share Posted September 5, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... How do you change the title of the thread? -------------------------------------------------- Tough loss yesterday, but aren't all losses tough? I guess some are tougher than others. Minnesota Twins -1.5, $137 to win $100 Reasoning: The Twins have won 10 straight games Santana has started (3 of those by 1 run) and 19 of his last 20 starts (7 of those were 1-run wins). Jae Seo hasn't pitched since August 20, so don't expect him to beyond 6 innings (which he rarely does anyway) and the D'Rays bullpen is horrible. If this bet looks like a loss, I may chase with the A's game over late. Week 2: 0-1, -$159. Week 1: 5-1, +$913 The title of the thread can be changed by clicking on the edit button in the first post then go advanced button - which reveals the whole first post, incl. the title:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I am not a moderator, so there is no "Edit" button for me up top. ---------------------------------------------------------------- I had to sign up at Mansion Sportsbook and take theur free $1000 bet on the Steelers at a Pick today and then turned around and bet Miami +1 at Pinnacle for $491 to win $450. This means: If the Steelers win by more than 1 point, I win $509. If the Dolphins win or we have a tie after OT, I win $450 If the Steelers win by 1 point, I win $1000. Not a bad deal, huh? This make my goal for Week 2 a bit easier as I cannot lose with tomorrow's game. On to tonight: Chicago White Sox, laying $175 to win $150 Reasoning: I like Jose Contreras to return to his mean tonight (in a good way) after several bad starts and for Kyle Snyder to regress toward his mean (in a bad way) after throwing a gem his last time out. I like the ChiSox to avoid the sweep. Week 2: 1-1, -$59 Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted September 6, 2006 Share Posted September 6, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... The edit button is at the foot of your post and you can edit your own posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... The edit button is at the foot of your post and you can edit your own posts. ok. I see. I have to re-login under that Earn1000 id and edit it. Ok. I may do that later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 7, 2006 Share Posted September 7, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Like the Grand Salami today in Baseball. Grand Salami over 66 -- $157 to win $150 Reasoning: I have leans to most of today's games going Over, but more importantly, the Salami has gone Under 8 straight days and has had 3 straight "stone" Unders. A few of these unders have been "no action" due to rainouts, but I subtract those rainout totals from the listed Salami total for those days and still count them for tracking purposes and so we have 8 straight unders. I see enough variables (aside from the fact that the Salami very rarely has a streak this long) to point to an Over here. Week 2: 2-1, +$91 Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 8, 2006 Share Posted September 8, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Like the Astros today. Houston Astros -112 -- $112 to win $100 Reasoning: I am hoping that Sheets won't go too deep into this game, therefore giving the edge to the Astros bullpen over the Brewers bullpen, besides the fact that Oswalt is more capable of going deeper into the game than Sheets anyway. The Astros have ripped Sheets for 7 runs in both of the games Sheets has thrown against Houston, so although I expect that Sheets performance tonight will be more towards his overall mean, I still think the Astros win this game. If this looks like a loss around 10:00 EST, I may will chase with the Texas Rangers. If the game is close around 10:00, I will have to make a late decision on whether to bet Texas or not because I like them just as much if not more than Houston. Week 2: 3-1, +$241 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge Thur.) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 9, 2006 Share Posted September 9, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I will add: Texas Rangers -- $111 to win $100 Reasoning: The Rangers are starting to heat up with the sticks. Millwood has been a very good Road pitcher all season and Texas has had a lot of success vs. Seattle the last 2 seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 9, 2006 Share Posted September 9, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Like the Grand Salami today in Baseball. Grand Salami over 66 -- $157 to win $150 Reasoning: I have leans to most of today's games going Over, but more importantly, the Salami has gone Under 8 straight days and has had 3 straight "stone" Unders. A few of these unders have been "no action" due to rainouts, but I subtract those rainout totals from the listed Salami total for those days and still count them for tracking purposes and so we have 8 straight unders. I see enough variables (aside from the fact that the Salami very rarely has a streak this long) to point to an Over here. Week 2: 2-1, +$91 Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Just a query. Would I be right in assuming this bet (Grand Salami) was Over 66 runs for all games played that night?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... Just a query. Would I be right in assuming this bet (Grand Salami) was Over 66 runs for all games played that night?? You are correct, sir. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 10, 2006 Share Posted September 10, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I am going to play a 4-team teaser today: Denver Broncos +9.5, Houston Texans +18.5, Jacksonville Jaguars +13, Indianapolis Colts +10 laying $240 to win $200 (5dimes) Reasoning: Broncos may get upset, but not by 10 points or more Texans are a much better Home team and should stay under THAT number Jaguars are solid and the Cowboys are over-valued here because Owens is supposed to be playing Colts have been an awesome teaser team the last few years I have to throw in a baseball play for good measure: St. Louis Cardinals laying $124 to win $100 (Pinny) Reasoning: Suppan is sporting a 0.40 ERA his last 3 starts and I see the Cards offense hopefully returning to their mean after scoring just one run total their last 2 games. Record: Week 2: 4-2, +$230 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge Thur.) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernie_Money Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... I have had 3 straight losing Mondays, so I have no idea if this play has a chance or not, but this is my bet for tonight: NY Mets/Florida over 8.5 -- laying $171 to win $150 Reasoning: This is a let-down or hangover game for Anibal Sanchez after the no-hitter last time out and Dave Williams of the Mets has been pitching way over his head (3 straight solid starts) and I expect both pitchers to regress to their mean a bit here today so I gotta take the Over. Record: Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge) Week 1: 5-1, +$913 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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