Hodgey Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System From what I see real results were a bit better than 110% SP, because you got lower prices on the horses that won. Today I have a hurricane warning where I live, Hurricane Gordon is passing here in the Azores Islands in 4 hours, so I don't know if I will be able to post selections for tomorrow!!! I hope you will excuse me for this... Take a look at what's coming: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg I hope my roof is standing tomorrow, I know I will be out of electricity tomorrow, it happens all the time here... Yeah I hope you're ok mate. Hopefully it will vear off in another direction like they sometimes do. :hope I will post todays selections up shortly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maria Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Really worried about your house now, Pinho: I did not realise you had weather like that in Portugal! :@ Wednesday's selections ... 2.00 Red Cavalry Guard 2 2.00 Red Karoo Blue 1 2.00 Red King's Apostle 1 2.10 GdwDannabelle 2 2.20 Per Baileys Best 1 2.45 Gdw Starry Messenger 3 2.55 Per Schinken Otto 2 3.10 Red Nanton 1 3.10 Red Fremen 2 3.20 Gdw Greek Renaissance 1 3.30 Per Allaboveboard 3 3.45 Red Coalpark 1 3.55 Gdw Imperial Stride 2 3.55 Gdw Nakheel 1 4.20 Red Seattle Robber 1 4.20 Red Second Reef 1 4.30 Gdw Quantum 2 4.30 Gdw Charlie Tokyo 2 4.30 Gdw Villa Sonata 1 4.55 Red The Leather Wedge 1 5.05 Gdw Halla San 1 5.05 Gdw Triple Bluff 1 5.15 Per Shared Account 1 5.30 Red Littledodayno 1 5.30 Red Nistaki 2 5.30 Red No Grouse 1 5.30 Red Elkhorn 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 20, 2006 Author Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Well, bloody typical, the media spent all afternoon saying the world was going to end, and then it passed 100 miles offshore, didn't even rain... All is well, and today's selections are up already (thanks), so good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Well, bloody typical, the media spent all afternoon saying the world was going to end, and then it passed 100 miles offshore, didn't even rain... All is well, and today's selections are up already (thanks), so good luck! Thats good news mate. We like it when they get the weather forecast wrong :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Well, bloody typical, the media spent all afternoon saying the world was going to end, and then it passed 100 miles offshore, didn't even rain... All is well, and today's selections are up already (thanks), so good luck! Yes that is good news. :ok For completeness, although unlikely to go below 4.00, there are 3 selections in the 17.40 at Goodwood too: Goodwood17.40Dancing Mystery1Goodwood17.40Light Mozart1Goodwood17.40Summer Recluse (USA)1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 20, 2006 Author Share Posted September 20, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 20, 2006 Share Posted September 20, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System A bit of a disaster today. Just can't seem to string 2 good days together. :( I know laying is am longterm game (and I've only had 139 lays so far on this) but I'm starting to doubt the validity of this system in it's present form. What are your thoughts Pinho? (and others too?) You gonna stick it out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System No time to post today's selections, sorry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinglouey Posted September 21, 2006 Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Pinhofap It,s been a bad couple of days yer,but the system is still in profit so i'm going to carry on with it.I don't like looking back and thinking what if,done that too many times in my life already.Not surprised your stopping especially as your away from your own computer terminal for so long.Have you thought about tweaking the system.Would it be beneficial to not lay the top 5 tipsters as they are all in profit and that's not good for layers.Would it be better to trigger the 2 and 3 point bets at lower odds i.e. 2 point bet comes into play at 1.75 say and the 3 point bet at 1.5.Just a few thoughts.Also don't forget this has been running live for nearly 4 weeks and the bank has never been under the start amount(touch wood)which ain't bad,and lastly welcome to good old Blighty,hope you enjoy your stay. Keep the Faith :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Cheers, thanks for the words Kinglouey. I am going to post what would have happened today, but those stats won't go into the results. Looking at the big picture, it could be that we are just on a bad month, September is the start of the NH season, so that could explain it. Since I can't back test, I am being cautious. Best wishes Pinho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 21, 2006 Author Share Posted September 21, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System OK, no after eventing and today won't count, but it would have returned +33.76 pts. I am not adding these to the results however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I have been working like a madman so I haven't updated, but I think I may have discovered something interesting, although the system is still showing a profit since the start of the paper trial, it is currently on a terrible phase. What I am thinking and I will go through this this weekend is changing the selection method to only laying horses that have 2 or more tips, leaving the horses with 1 tip completely out of the equation. The stop price would be much higher (I am thinking of 9/1 or 14/1 I have to back check) and the staking system would be something like different target profits at different price bands (maria's laying system basically). Just as informartion only, between today and yesterday the system would have returned a further loss of 56 points, but the horses with 2 or more tips today didn't win a single race. I truly believe in this, and we are going to bring this system back from the dead. I will back test and post results when I can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maria Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System What I am thinking and I will go through this this weekend is changing the selection method to only laying horses that have 2 or more tips' date=' leaving the horses with 1 tip completely out of the equation.[/quote'] I have been asking myself exactly the same thing. I think there is real logic here. I suspect that the way to approach this system is actually not with price-criteria in mind, but value-criteria. The essential point of the system is surely that the fact that tipsters are touting a selection is what makes it terrible backing-value and therefore in the long term good laying-value. So it should follow from this that those touted by more tipsters are overall better laying value ... :) Dead? Steady on, Pinho: your system is in profit! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 23, 2006 Author Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Thank you for the input maria, your comments are always very much welcome, and we have been thinking about the same things regarding this thread, it makes sense that more tips equal more laying value, not only on the shortest prices but on the others as well. One of the conclusions I got from the paper trial was exactly that the more tips the more laying value, although at the time I was more focused on the shortest odds(because of liabilities), I will have to back check. OK, after a quick check and using a mix of 110% SP and real prices, if we had set a cutoff price at SP 9/2 (roughly not laying anything above 6.0 on Betfair), since the start of the live system, laying to win 10 units on each selection that had 2 or more tips, result would now be +223.2 units (after commission of course) and with a yield of +5.21%; total bets 181. I will go through the paper trial tomorrow and see how it would have performed. What pleases me in this result is the fact that short odds have been doing excellent results compared to what the system produced in August, so I suppose August should be better. I'll post results for the paper trial tomorrow, and I would like to hear other opinions on this new possibility by those who have been following the thread. Cheers and Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donk Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Pinho Just wanted to say great work! I've been lurking on this thread for a few weeks now and been following the selections for a bit too - while I'm slightly down, I'm still convinced you have something potentially great here, particularly as it is based on price/market forces and not a complex set of selection criteria. I had a look back at my (admittedly much smaller) sample of lays on Friday and started playing around in Excel with various filters (eg no of tips versus price) and got some interesting, but ultimately inconclusive :cry , results - but with more data I think more solid trends may emerge. Ultimately I think there is a way to filter/stake these fine beasts (as Maria would say/strikethrough ;)), and the fact that the system is still in profit despite the recent bad run speaks volumes. Anyhoo, just wanted to drop by and add my "thanks", "support", "relief that your roof is still intact". Looking forward to seeing (and maybe even helping with, or should that be not hindering too badly!) the next steps. All the Best Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itooam Posted September 23, 2006 Share Posted September 23, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Unfortunately, with work commitments I haven't been able to follow this -though perhaps I've been lucky with the bad spell. Though - I have been going through my own bad spell with a football system I have! :( I agree that that the most likely cause of value would be because of too many people wanting to back the same horse pushing the price down - reason I originally liked this system. Is perhaps wise, paper trading until more confidence!? I wish you the best with this system - I would have continued but with my other system screwing up I have no alternative but to try and find one I know is reliable with the data I have. On another note, I see no reason why this system long term would not create a profit - after all - a simple measure would be comparing the amount won by winning tipsters to the none winning tipsters (quite a difference) - athough, I suppose this depends on the average prices the tipsters tip at (given the cut off point of odd 4) Good luck - I will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinglouey Posted September 24, 2006 Share Posted September 24, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Last night i started looking at what would of happened if only bets at evens or lower were layed from the tipsters list using the 2 and 3 point system.Over the last 28 days i was surprised to see that there would of been a profit of approx £150.I certainly think your on the right track Pinhofap and would like to echo other people's thoughts that this system is far from dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 24, 2006 Author Share Posted September 24, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System I am going through August's results and I'll post back when I finish it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 24, 2006 Author Share Posted September 24, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System OK, finished going through the results. Since 25 July, taking only selections with 2 or more tips, above 7/2 there is no value (roughly up to 5.0 decimal on Betfair). Laying all horses below that to a fixed profit of 10 units per selection would have returned 384.2 units after comm. Total yield would be 5.79% after 335 selections. Odds below 2.0 : profit 19.4 yield 3.53% (odds-on have been performing exceptionalyy well this month, as I've said before, just check Massey's database for this). Odds between 2.0 and 3.0 : profit 19.3 yield 1.33% Odds between 3.0 and 4.0 : profit 322 yield 12.23% Odds between 4.0 and 5.0 : profit 23.5 yield 1.17% This is a bit strange distribution of results, but starting tomorrow I am changing the system rules to reflect only laying horses with 2 or more tips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hodgey Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Good luck with your new tweakings Pinho. I myself stopped the placing bets after last week's disaster on Tuesday. I still believe you have something with potential, and indeed you are still in profits, but I couldn't afford to keep throwing money at it. I will continue to watch with interest and wish you good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramses Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System hi pinhofap, ve been digging through your thread from beginning and noticed that we are testing similar systems. so here is my systems rules and an suggestion to maximize both. my system: go to napster table at racingpost eliminate all single naps (only one nap in this race) write down all naps of a race, when 2 or more are different bet only if less than 25% of non favorit naps are NR no bet over 6.0 lay at betfair advantage of my system: favorit is opposed by other naps disadvantage: some of my favorits are only tipped by 1 tipster (which could probably cause lack of value due to not so heavy hammering the backside by punters following this tipsters). the results so far (not that long period of time...) 89 bets W 64 L 25 P + 13.4 pts S/R 71.9 % yield: 5.8% a combination of both of us systems could look like this. go to napster table at racingpost eliminate all single naps (only one nap in this race) eliminate all single naps, even if more than one in a race write down all naps of a race, when 2 or more are different and at least 1 nap has 2 or more tips. bet only if less than 25% of non favorit naps are NR no bet over 6.0 lay at betfair the selection today would look like this: Paddywack 14:10 Haml Newkeylets 14:10 Haml Joyeaux 14:10 Haml Pacific Pride 14:40 Haml Fonthill Road 14:40 Haml Eisteddfod 14:40 Haml Bygone Days 14:40 Haml Bonnie Belle 15:50 Bath Mowazana 15:50 Bath Regal Velvet 15:50 Bath Red Admiral 16:40 Haml Macorville 16:40 Haml Cool Customer 16:40 Haml Lets Roll 16:40 Haml would be interested in your opinion on this. ramses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Cheers Ramses, are you laying or backing the tips? I didn't get that part, sorry. If you wish, we can compare results for some time. I am also keeping track of the "old rules", because my dilemma right now is this, since 25 July "old rules" would have us up 670 units, while new rules would have us up 384 units. Only problem with old rules is they have performing like crap in the past 3 weeks... Hodgey, let's hope this turns back to the profits we were seeing, in the meantime I am also not betting, so good luck with your bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramses Posted September 25, 2006 Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Cheers Ramses, are you laying or backing the tips? I didn't get that part, sorry. If you wish, we can compare results for some time. I am also keeping track of the "old rules", because my dilemma right now is this, since 25 July "old rules" would have us up 670 units, while new rules would have us up 384 units. Only problem with old rules is they have performing like crap in the past 3 weeks... H hi pinhofap, I am laying the favorits at the off. Not all of my selections. the old rules seem to be old in terms of "old looking" :$ so in my opinion you (and hopefully me also) are on the one and only possible way to success: to learn and adjust! :cheers ramses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System OK ramses, I think it would be nice if we posted results for the different plans, I will post old and new rules, and you post your "hybrid" system and we'll see how it works out. Thanks for helping, that's why this forum rocks, ideas are never too many! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted September 25, 2006 Author Share Posted September 25, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Old rules results would be -39.1 units. Would like to see Ramses results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramses Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System My Egyptian Lay hybrid (MEL) results 9/25 Paddywack 14:10 Haml NO BET Newkeylets 14:10 Haml NO BET Joyeaux 14:10 Haml NO BET Pacific Pride 14:40 Haml Fonthill Road 14:40 Haml 3, lost :D Eisteddfod 14:40 Haml Bygone Days 14:40 Haml Bonnie Belle 15:50 Bath Mowazana 15:50 Bath 2.75, lost :D Regal Velvet 15:50 Bath Red Admiral 16:40 Haml NO BET (7 runners only) Macorville 16:40 Haml NO BET Cool Customer 16:40 Haml NO BET Lets Roll 16:40 Haml NO BET Bets: 2 W: 2 L: 0 P: 2 S/R: 100% Yield: 53.33% results are at SP, no bf commission included. a quick reminder on the rules: go to napster table at racingpost eliminate all single naps (only one nap in this race) eliminate all single naps, even if more than one in a race write down all naps of a race, when 2 or more are different and at least 1 nap has 2 or more tips. bet only if less than 25% of non favorit naps are NR no bet over 6.0 lay at betfair no bet under 8 runners no bet if 2 J (I forgot this last 2 rules in my initial posting) MEL selections 9/26 Hadahoo 2:00 Gdwd Grand Heights 2:00 Gdwd Madrigale 2:30 Gdwd Lorena Wood 2:30 Gdwd Karshaan 3:05 Gdwd Kalantera 3:05 Gdwd Primondo 3:05 Gdwd Juniper Girl 3:20 Nott Rainbow´s Edge 3:20 Nott Stronghold 3:40 Gdwd Quito 3:40 Gdwd Jedburgh 3:40 Gdwd Byron 3:40 Gdwd Polar Ben 3:40 Gdwd Fiefdom 5:25 Gdwd Magic Rush 5:25 Gdwd Dry Ice 5:25 Gdwd ramses:gimme Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 legs Posted September 26, 2006 Share Posted September 26, 2006 Re: The Tipsters System Can't get my feeble mind round what seem like ambiguities in the following: eliminate all single naps (only one nap in this race) eliminate all single naps, even if more than one in a race write down all naps of a race, when 2 or more are different and at least 1 nap has 2 or more tips. Could you possibly re-phrase for clarification? Many thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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