pinhofap Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annamarc Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters This price range is responsible for 66% of the total profit and shows a 39% yield! So I suppose it is a good idea to follow these selections only at evens or below. Saw this too some days ago making the maths. But I wanted to wait till the 25th for a complete calculation ... and a new det of rules maybe. ;) regards from spain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters Ola annamarc: bienvenido/a! I am closing this thread in the 31st/August and starting a new one on the 1st September, with all the stats of this paper trial and new system rules. I'll post the excel file with all the selections and different stats so that people may make their own decisions. As of now, under the new rules total yield is still 12.5% and a daily growth of at least 1% in bank can be expected. My only concern is the size of the sample (too small??), but 400 bets is what we should have by the end of the month, so I feel confident putting my money on selections based on that number of previous bets. I am not putting my money down on this yet. Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
annamarc Posted August 22, 2006 Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters a daily growth of at least 1% in bank can be expected This is what we need. ;) My only concern is the size of the sample (too small??) You mean the sample bank of 100 pts? I am not putting my money down on this yet. Same for me - but I think it´s possible to work on that till we can. ;) have a nice evening - wife is waiting. Have to go home. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters I mean the sample of 400 bets that we shall have on 31 August. I have no clue what samples people usually get, but 400 bets seems reasonable to me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 22, 2006 Author Share Posted August 22, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters Pinho Can I ask whether the prices are based on guessed betfair odds ie SP plus a bit, or whether these are based on actual betfair prices at the off? If the former, how much additional are you adding to SP. Looking forward to the spreadsheet on the 31st (or whenever its posted). Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters Hello alun, sometimes I am using the actual Betfair price, as close to the off as possible, but for the past 5 or 6 days I've been using 110% of SP. I have been very busy at work and it's not easy to update when I want. Also the naps were not available yesterday at 1AM so I am only posting the selections now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunshine Avenue Posted August 23, 2006 Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters I remember Betfair posting results stateing runners that shorten 2 mins before the off, showed a lay profit, but can't recall if greater than 5%. Anyone remember this ? I may try to list big shorteners, ie 2.75 down to 2.00. Could lay, might be able to back around 1.5, if the worst comes to the worst, sometimes, anyway 1.01 back-enter. Pinhoflap has done a great lot of work on this project, the rest of us need to pull our weight, more often ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 23, 2006 Author Share Posted August 23, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters Hello Sunshine Avenue, I don't remember ever seeing those results on betfair, but some Odds comparison sites have "steamer alerts", and market movers tables, I don't know if that can be used. I was thinking the other day that the effect tipsters have on the price of horses could very happen as well due to "gossip" on the day of the races. On the dogs&horses forum of PL yesterday I remember a lot of fuss because the trainer of one horse said it was going to win the race on TV. I assume that price went down very quickly (that particular horse didn't win, but that doesn't mean anything). Just a different approach to the same idea, basically. As for the work I put in this, when it's showing a profit I really don't mind! If it wasn't for PL and for the good help some people gave me, I know that I would probably not have the mental attitude to patiently keep recording prices and going through the results to find a positive trend. I'm glad the idea is working and I think in the long run this will be a profitable approach, because this system deals with market expectations, offer and demand, it's basically echonomics and psichology (as I said I know nothing of form, going, draw, etc), and this is the only way I think I will ever be able to find an edge in horses. I was also amazed to find how a staking plan can influence the outcome of a system, it is absolutely amazing that this same set of selections now shows a Yield of 3.82% but with a different and more balanced staking plan (I will explain it when the paper trial closes in a week, it's basically percentage of bank liability, but with a small twist, the idea came from reading Maria's Laying thread on another forum) I have 10.52%. A lot of analysis has gone into the results, I searched for help when I went beyond my capabilities, but I managed to devise a plan that shows less than 0.001% chance of going bankrupt and an expected yield of 7/8%, which will correspond roughly to a growth of 1% per day on average. I think these figures are very good, but every time I go through the stats I assume a yield much lower than what we have now, so that I don't rely on false expectations. This assuming of course that the trend continues, which I have every reason to believe it will, and hopefully we will all profit from a not so obvious approach. In fact, it is curious that under evens, the more the tips, the greater the yield in laying. Makes you wonder why, doesn't it...? Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 24, 2006 Author Share Posted August 24, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 25, 2006 Author Share Posted August 25, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 26, 2006 Author Share Posted August 26, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts I had to work all night so I didn't have time to study the stats. Here are the findings of the paper trial. In order to compare results I assumed the same staking plan had been followed from the start (25th July). Please notice I do not consider this after eventing, these same selections perform differently under different staking plans, I'm just maximizing profit (and reducing risk). So the inputs I gave to my simulations were Date, Odds of horse, Tips and Result. Start Bank was 1000 pts, bets were 10pt liability per tip on fixed liability and stakes were adjusted to 5.9 pts profit per tip on fixed profit staking to have the same total liability in the end of both systems after 31 days. Weight of tips I found it is profitable to use the weight of tips to determine the stake size only below evens. The mechanisms have been discussed elsewhere on this forum, but it seems the hottest favourites will shorten more in price in percentage, on average, than the "regular" favourites. So the staking plan we used from the start was in fact causing the yield to go down, because above evens it doesn't pay to lay more when the horse has more tips. Below evens, curiously the more the tips, the best the yield. The "tipping" factor causes a drop in price that makes it more profitable to lay more when there are more tips. Going above 3 tips causes an unnecessary increase in liability that induces big oscillations in Bank. Fixed Profit vs Fixed Liability My main concern over the past few days has been this, fixed profit or fixed liability? On the PL archive you can find some excellent threads comparing both, and everyone of them says fixed profit is better for long term betting, which is what I'm after. Also this system has good bays followed by bad days, not a constant stream of winning days with occasional losing days (like DannyCash thread), which I would prefer. So I think one should "play defensively" because of bankruptcy risk. I compared both distributions of results, weighing the liability of the fixed profit so that after the 31 days both systems would produce the same total liability. I attached two pictures to this post, look at the one named "Bank". The only difference to the paper trial was that above evens I didn't use weight of tips, so results are different to the paper trial. At first sight you can tell that you have a higher final bank with fixed liability, but it also appears that there are bigger oscillations in bank with fixed liability, fixed profit seems more constant. Taking a look at the second picture, Var Bank, where you have the variation in bank after each bet, it is clear that the highest peaks (increases and decreases in bank) are found with fixed liability, so you have a higher volatility and hence a higher risk of total loss with fixed liability. Remember that we are comparing results because in the end, average liability per bet would be the same. Some stats for both staking plans using the selections of the past 31 days: Fixed Profit: 332 bets Yield: +8.54% SR: 66.87% Fixed Liability: 332 bets SR: 66.87% Yield: +12.18% Now, everyone will say, if fixed liability has a higher yield, it is the best system. Well, not really, because Alhaajes was unplaced at odds of 1.15, which means in fixed liability that was an increase in bank of 126.7pts (12.7%) thanks to one horse alone. If I take out that horse from the results, Yield goes down to 9%. Imagine on this particular day you couldn't place your bets because you were working (it happened to me once this month), the big benefits of fixed liability go down the drain. However, if I take out any horse in fixed profit the Yield doesn't change that much. I'm sure some will argue that this is not a good choice, but I prefer a more stable distribution of results, so in the live system I'll be going for fixed profit stakes. I will post some more sims (5000 bets sims) when I start the live system thread, possibly still today, and tomorrow the system will start in its final form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Pinho Do you have the s/sheet of results at all? The next question is how big should 1pt be. I was going to have a nose at that and see Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts pinho what are the results like if you only include those days where you were actually doing it and getting genuine betfair prices rather than guesstimated betfair prices. does that make a difference at all? al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts yet another q i'm afraid. are your results before commission or afterwards. if before, what is the effect of commission on your yield? al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Hello, all results are after commission. I think something like 1/3 of the results are real prices and 2/3 are 110% of SP. Please note that below evens using 110% of SP is very very pessimistic, as at short odds Betfair prices are much closer to SP, but I used it anyway. As for the sheet of results I'll PM it to you. I managed to f**k up the horses names before 2 August, but every price, points and result has been checked before I ran the simulations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts I can't send this by PM so it stays here. Excel file with list of results is below.conv_126.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alun Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts thanks pinho! great stuff! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F1nut Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Pinho Great results As you state that odds below evens account for a large percentage of the profits have you checked the returns for those selections only ? F1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Hello F1nut, selections below evens show a 24.85% yield, using fixed profit stakes of 1pt per tip, but there were only 73 bets, so you get a return of 22.43 pts over the course of the month. Selections above evens have a lower Yield, 5.97%, but since there are 259 selections, you'd get a return of 34.06 pts. All a matter of personal choices, you can very well use only selections below evens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts I downloaded your file "livro" and had a quick check of odds on selections and made a return of around 5 points only. Could you be wrong or was it me.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pinhofap Posted August 27, 2006 Author Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Plus total liability is 81.23 pts, so a yield of 24.85%. I guess it was your mistake, if you have any doubts about this, go through the thread, all the selections are there, I just don't have some of the horses names on the database, but every odd, date and price was rechecked before doing the stats. Best wishes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted August 27, 2006 Share Posted August 27, 2006 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts I had worked at 1 point each, only. this makes a big difference. I will follow the new thread eagerly, Good Luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billydilly Posted April 24, 2007 Share Posted April 24, 2007 Re: Lay the Tipsters - Paper Trial +116pts Pin: Hi there! I have a couple of applications that might help you in this. I have studyed the same things as you. Contact me on m sn lbmikalsen at hotmail dot com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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