merlin Posted September 9, 2009 Author Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... not too many crumbs of comfort folloing the 3-0 selections last night! Although it is still early days and the proof of the pudding is in the eating they say! Two draws instead of forecast wins. I have noticed that not many of these selections actually lose and draws have been around in the past, might be another consideration to back 1X. Anyway here are the latest figures:- Total Staked 30.00 Avg Odds Avg Stake Total Returned 19.88 1.93 10.00 Yield 0.663 -33.73% Winners 1 Losers 2 Strike Rate 33.33% Current Bank 89.88 Profit / Loss -10.12 Will be here in good time for any weekend selections.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 1x Merlin :eek don't forget you can always lay the away .... :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. 1x Merlin :eek don't forget you can always lay the away .... :rollin Neither of these options are a forward step - believe me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Two Norms this weekend.... Hereford @ 3.1 Cambridge @ 3.1 Heres hoping...:ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 10, 2009 Author Share Posted September 10, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... OK it's back to business as usual as we look for this weekend to improve our 3-0 system tables. The following were highlighted for this coming weekend's group of matches:- Carlisle U (H) 2.21 Huddersfield T (H) 1.79 Dagenham & R (H) 2.10 Rotherham U (H) 1.63 Hoping for some better results this week.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. here is a table that is used by one bookie - if anyone wants to test correct scores from MW's sheets. obviously it is not the best price but is an indicator. if you know the 1x2 price you simply look up the correct score price that interests you. anyone fancy backtesting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. here is a table that is used by one bookie - if anyone wants to test correct scores from MW's sheets. obviously it is not the best price but is an indicator. if you know the 1x2 price you simply look up the correct score price that interests you. anyone fancy backtesting? I've done it - see my correct score thread. This wasn't against MW's sheets but my own predicted calclations (They seem to be fairly close to what the MW sheets predict anyway). Of course the odds and chance vary between league's, but the 0-0, 0-1 and 2-2 looked the only long term profitable scores from my analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. of course - remember it now. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Nice analysis Kthom :ok Using your skills would it be possible (using best price) to formulate the best leagues to follow on the 3-0 system, and calculate the increase in ROI achieved ? If there's too much work involved then please say, it's just a neat skill you have being able to back test in the way that you can. Sadly I'm good at analysis, but can't code. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Nice analysis Kthom :ok Using your skills would it be possible (using best price) to formulate the best leagues to follow on the 3-0 system, and calculate the increase in ROI achieved ? If there's too much work involved then please say, it's just a neat skill you have being able to back test in the way that you can. Sadly I'm good at analysis, but can't code. Kanga, I have only saved MW data for the Premiership - but I could possible calculate for other leagues but don't have the data to hand. I do have my own results for most leagues (Including one's MW doesn't cover, France, Sweden, Japan, Holland etc) and they have proved to be fairly similar to MW's. The testing I have done using 3-0 scores doesn't give enough profit as far as i'm concerned (using level stakes anyway) - but I'm not gonna go against the 3+ years worth of positive returns Merlin has shown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Cheers KThom, maybe i should have waited until 6 games in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 14, 2009 Author Share Posted September 14, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... another poor set of results for the 3-0 system also, with only one win to show for our efforts.Still have to keep faith. Latest position:- Total Staked 70.00 Avg Odds Avg Stake Total Returned 40.33 1.93 10.00 Yield 0.576 -42.39% Winners 2 Losers 5 Strike Rate 28.57% Current Bank 70.33 Profit / Loss -29.67 Will be back later with any midweek selections.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Nothing to worry about yet Merlin. What might be your problem is the 10 point staking which as I've said before is way too risky for my tastes and will one day come back to bite you on the bottom. But that sort of thing is very much a personal decision and can't really change the fact that this has so far proven to be a good selection system and I expect much the same this season, keep up the good work and best of luck. Kthom, I am truly envious of you with your backtesting setup. I'd love to see the stats for the MW sheets for the five English leagues from the last ten years but can't do it all manually for obvious reasons and I don't possess the know how to extract the methos from MW's sheets. Did you crack the VBA password and then work out the formulas, I'm sure MW wouldn't mind too much as long as you didn't use it for any commercial gain, and as you say you have your own system anyway it seems this is more for your own interest. Do you use the data from FootballData.co.uk for your analysis as this is what I had planned to do? Also as an observation I made from last seasons stats which I do have, the 1-0 predictions ran at around 16% accuracy and with an average price of around 8.00 would provide a theoretical 28% yeild though of course with very low stakes the overall season return wouldn't be huge. What have you found with the 1-0s both on your system and MW over the recent years (Iknow you only have the prem at the mo)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. This has been going for a few years now, lost touch with it ages ago. Is it in profit all up ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fast Eddie Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. This has been going for a few years now, lost touch with it ages ago. Is it in profit all up ? Yes, Merlin's 3-0 system has produced a profit each season with nice yield, not sure about the others, I think they vary more but no doubt they'll be along in a minute to tell you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi Eddie. I've not cracked or played with mw's sheets at all. I've actually know how his formulae works by reverse methods. ( I created my own calculations first then have tested against mw's). The methods he has used are very similar to mine and are fairly common excel traits using popular statistical calculations. I don't know 100% that I can replicate his scores but I'm 99.9% sure that tweaking my sheets to remove moving league goal tallys will then replicate mw's formulae. The 0-1 is certainly a scoreline that interests me (more so than 1-0). I will try and get some data and analysis over the next few weeks for other leagues. I do indeed use football-data stats for any backtesting I need to do. Very handy tool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Hi. I am a long term follower of this thread but have contributed little recently. I have cracked the sheets and known the workings. What leagues and seasons are people interested in? Ktom - would you be interested in comparing score predictions? Obviously we need to choose a common starting season as the sheets work from previous data. Which league? If i publish the score predictions then perhaps some one could look at profitability? Whos in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Ktom - would you be interested in comparing score predictions? I can pretty much do this Muppet - as previously mentioned I think there is only a lsight formulae difference between the mw sheets and my own calculations so back test comparing would be relatively easy for me. I still don't know how profitable any level stakes betting system can be long term with the sheets/calculations - (and before someone says it I know Merlin has had a 10% ish yield for 2-3 seasons). Companies who provide betting models for the leading bookmakers have far superior and more sophisticated workings than than you are I can aspire too. I've been looking at various type's of betting opportunities (using my calculations) for a year now and am still working 40+ hours a week so either i've missed something or there isn't sufficient accuracy to obtain a long term (10+ years) profit. However I do think there is money to be made using correct score betting, but like anything it's all driven by odds and getting the best available and being disciplined enough to leave a selection when the odds don't meet the likelihood. (back testing this isn't as straight forward) I'm up for proofing or comparing any back testing results you may have though muppet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Oh ok mate. I will leave it i think then if yours is there or there about. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Oh ok mate. I will leave it i think then if yours is there or there about. :-) Not at all, would still be good to see the mw analysis from another point of view, and I could even slap up the prem calculations from 2003 now (as I anticipate they would have been using the MW sheets). I just think comparing my results/formulae vs wray's isn't the road to go down if we're looking to make a profitable system. I've tested the 3-0 system against my predictions and they don't return a positive enough yield using level stakes. I've basically stopped there and focused solely on correct score or over under (again not enough value IMHO) markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I am a corners man myself as you may have seen in my thread. I used to follow 1x2 betting but decided that after years of trial and testing that the bookies have it sorted on the most popular market. This is when i decided to specialise and look to where the bookmakers dont have or cannot devote time to as they must be good at 1x2 pricing. I think that wray has a nice little sheet. I must disagree with the inclusion of 5 year head to head data in his system even if it is weighted with a small factor coefficient. Does a match between two teams 5 seasons ago have any bearing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I am a corners man myself as you may have seen in my thread. I used to follow 1x2 betting but decided that after years of trial and testing that the bookies have it sorted on the most popular market. This is when i decided to specialise and look to where the bookmakers dont have or cannot devote time to as they must be good at 1x2 pricing. I think that wray has a nice little sheet. I must disagree with the inclusion of 5 year head to head data in his system even if it is weighted with a small factor coefficient. Does a match between two teams 5 seasons ago have any bearing? I think you've taken the correct route their muppet - the only saving grace these days is betting exchanges. I'd somewhat agree with you h2h statement, although how many times do we hear about teams having bogey grounds, or grounds they love? I think the baring of the result 5 years ago is so small (in the formulae) the scoreline will barely alter at all (try changing it to 10-0 and it prob wont change the prediction unless you are right at the beginning of a season). I can't post attachments as that was my intention so perhaps I could proof match some games on the thread with you muppet?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Sure. Which season. Which league. I havent even built my sheet yet but know the workings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. First +2 of the new season.... Watford @ 3.15... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted September 15, 2009 Author Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... sorry a bit late, two selections highighted tonight:- Leicester City (H) 1.85 W.B.A. (H) 1.53 Cheers.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokin Joe Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. I must disagree with the inclusion of 5 year head to head data in his system QUOTE] I agree with that thought as well. The other thing is that I think you need to use more than just match results if you want to beat the bookies (IMO). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Sure. Which season. Which league. I havent even built my sheet yet but know the workings. I don't mind mate, currently looking into the Draw no bet market - something i've not done before. I think the conclusion is (as you correctly say) the bookies have the standard 12X market sewn up. I think the sheets or stats in general can provide a good system, its just finding the consistent value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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