Grex Posted October 5, 2007 Share Posted October 5, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 7, 2007 Share Posted October 7, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Well grex great system but I can now tell you that your system is about to fall apart because I'm going to start following :lol Best of luck :hope Cheers mate DM Well, DM NZ, your voice-of-doom prophecy came true - a BAD weekend :( with only 4 draws out of 19 selections... a yield of (minus) 32%. Hope QPR-Norwich will turn things round a bit tomorrow night. I´ll post the overall statistics after the match. Well done, Merlin, with the WIN Picks - 4 out of 5 if I'm not mistaken.... and a healthy profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DM_NZ Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Sorry grex mate not as bad as my team going out in the world cup :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. A good weekend merlin 4 out of 5 gives us a return . :ok Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 8, 2007 Share Posted October 8, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 8, 2007 Author Share Posted October 8, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... nice summing up Grex and adds a bit of spice to the ingredients already in the mixing bowl.It never deteriorated into a thread outlining selections and results quite simply as that is basically what it set out to do.One cannot comment on team write ups etc as this is a system born out of the ashes of predictions as outlined in some very clever and individually styled spreadsheets, which embraces sets of statistics modelled to suit the authors requirements as he was far away from the English game and nothing met his immediate needs.Having followed this system for some two years or so now with profits highlighted in both seasons, would hardly seem to constitute the need for splashing out with write ups etc.Nothing wrong though with providing stats, makes decent reading.I shall not be changing anything unless there are indications that the yield can be increased by further tinkering.Latest position after the four wins from five:- WIN ONLYTotal Staked270.00 Total Returned284.60 Yield %5.41 Winners17 Losers10 Total Bets27 Strike Rate %62.96 Current Bank184.60 Profit/Loss84.60 Start Bank100 Onwards and upwards.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 9, 2007 Share Posted October 9, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Thanks, Merlin, for the comments. Last night's X-pick failed to improve a dismal weekend for the draw predictions. So, the overall picture is now: No. Bets113Strike Rate37.2%Yield23.0% The overall yield is diminishing rapidly - but, shall we give up yet?? NO, I hear you say!! There are 3 X-picks for tonight: 09/10/07English ConfCambridge-Rushden & DCrawley-HistonKidderminster-Halifax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 9, 2007 Author Share Posted October 9, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... No Grex this is not the time to even contemplate giving up, losers are to be expected when draw predictions are around.There is still a point to prove that this system either works or it does not! There has not been enough data used to show this is a loser at this point in time, so time and more results will prove if there is a pot at the end of the rainbow as fas as this system is concerned.In the early days of the 3-0 system a lot of punters gave this no chance to succeed, yet we are still here today to tell the tale.I urge you to continue as surely the strike rate will fall, but with decent prices offered for the draws, I am sure this will come good in the end.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 10, 2007 Share Posted October 10, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Thanks for the encouraging words, Merlin.... I certainly needed them after last night's three failures on the X-picks. :sad All three ended with 1-0 home wins :\. That makes it only 4 correct out of the last 23 selections. But, as you say, I should persevere, even if only to prove that the "system" does not work ! There is one X-pick for tomorrow night...... English Conf. Oxford v. Torquay :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 12, 2007 Share Posted October 12, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 12, 2007 Author Share Posted October 12, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... these teams highlighted by the 3-0 system:- Swansea T (a) 2.28 Doncaster R 1.93 Barnet 1.70 Good luck with your draws Grex but I make the Histon v Kidderminster prediction to be 1-2 and have doubled checked all the results.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 13, 2007 Share Posted October 13, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. You´re absolutely right, Merlin. I had missed one previous result for Kidderminster - so, Histon-Kidderminster is no longer an X-pick (you can now bet your bottom dollar that it will end in a draw :lol). Of the six X-picks for yesterday and today, not one finished in a draw:sad So, the updated performance is: No. Bets123 Strike Rate35.0% Yield15.6% Just one week ago, the figures were; 93 bets, 40.9% strike rate, 33.1% yield...... how the mighty are fallen :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 13, 2007 Author Share Posted October 13, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... figures may have fallen, but hey, still a healthy yield! Compare this with Matthew :- Strike rate similar 35.7 but Yield only 5.6% :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 17, 2007 Share Posted October 17, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, shame you didn´t post the 3-goal margin selections for today.... I think all 5 won ;). And I think there are 2 for tommorrow... Juventus - Genoa (1.36 @ Bet365) Ath Madrid - Zaragoza (1.90 @ Bet365) Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 20, 2007 Share Posted October 20, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 22, 2007 Share Posted October 22, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Just one draw from the weekend's last 2 selections.... so the overall performance of the X-picks is now: No. Bets147Strike Rate35.4%Yield17.0% Merlin's 3-goal margin system did exceptionally well, with 7 out of 7 wins. I don't have the odds yet, but the selections were: 20/10/07CarlisleWycombeAldershotArsenalInter21/10/07JuventusAth Madrid [where are you, Merlin ?? :unsure ] The English Championship is playing tomorrow, and the X-picks from MW's sheets are: 23/10/07ECCharlton-PlymouthCrystal Palace-StokeSheff Wednesday-Scunthorpe24/10/07Bristol City-SouthamptonCardiff-Wolves Plus one 3-goal margin selection: West Brom :hope :hope :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 22, 2007 Share Posted October 22, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Still a good yield Grex. Missed out on the +3 goals this weekend, hope Merlin will be back soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dices Posted October 23, 2007 Share Posted October 23, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Plus one 3-goal margin selection: West Brom :hope :hope :hope 2-1 :nana:nana:nana at 1.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 24, 2007 Author Share Posted October 24, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... been away for a few days and also had some logging in problems, will be back with an up to date account of how things stand asap!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 25, 2007 Share Posted October 25, 2007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 25, 2007 Author Share Posted October 25, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... right very nearly caught up but still have spreadsheet to update.This is the latest selections not yet updated:- Arsenal w 2-0 1.28 Carlisle U w 2-0 1.61 Aldershot w 1-0 1.59 Wycombe W w 3-0 1.83 W.B.A. w 2-1 1.62 This weekend only one British selection, so have scoured Euro and only one there also, so into the mix they go:- M.K.Dons 1.51 Barcelona 1.22 Hope to get this up to date over the weekend.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 26, 2007 Author Share Posted October 26, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... latest position prior to the weekend's games:- Total Staked 350 Total Returned 397.70 Yield + 13.63% Winners 24 Losers 11 Total Bets 35 Strike Rate 69% Current Bank 147.70 Profit / Loss 47.70 Onwards and upwards.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 28, 2007 Share Posted October 28, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Wow..... what a difference a weekend can make :nana:nana 14 of the 26 X-picks ended in draws.... a yield on the weekend of 78% :clap. The overall performance is now... No. Bets178 Strike Rate37.1% Yield22.6% Italy Serie A & Spanish La Liga have a full programme mid-week, so more X-picks will be posted on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 28, 2007 Author Share Posted October 28, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... perseverance seens to be the name of the game Grex! Well done!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 29, 2007 Author Share Posted October 29, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... mixed bag this week. Barcelona obliged and MKD gave up the ghost! Latest position:- Total Staked370Total Returned409.79Yield10.75%Winners25Losers12Strike Rate68%Current Bank139.79Profit / Loss39.79 Live to fight another day!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 30, 2007 Share Posted October 30, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good performance, Merlin. Let’s hope it keeps getting better. I know you shouldn’t change a winning “teamâ€â€¦.. but, I have been doing some back-testing on the MW X-picks and have decided to introduce an “adjustment†by way of a staking system. There is an additional filter which improves yield…. it is quite simple, and relies on the bookies perception of most likely draws. MW’s draw selections which also have a home team Asian Handicap of -0.25 or 0 have been performing much better. Therefore, I propose to double the stake on these selections. Shall we see how it pans out. Mid week selections are: DateLgeH TeamA TeamStake31/10/07IAReggina-Livorno1.0IARoma-Lazio1.0IASampdoria-Milan1.0IASiena-Catania2.0S1Getafe-Ath Bilbao2.0 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted October 31, 2007 Author Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... next set of selections highlighted:- Villarreal (Wed) 1.35 WON 3-0 Swansea C (Fri) 1.51 Manchester C (Mon) 1.62 Onwards and upwards.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted October 31, 2007 Share Posted October 31, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Villarreal are looking home and hosed already, 2-0.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted November 1, 2007 Author Share Posted November 1, 2007 Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... and three more for the weekend for good measure:- Real Zaragoza 1.64 Bayern Munich 1.23 Bayer Leverkusen 1.57 Here's hoping.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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