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Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.


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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment.

Well grex great system but I can now tell you that your system is about to fall apart because I'm going to start following :lol

Best of luck :hope Cheers mate DM

Well, DM NZ, your voice-of-doom prophecy came true - a BAD weekend :( with only 4 draws out of 19 selections... a yield of (minus) 32%. Hope QPR-Norwich will turn things round a bit tomorrow night. I´ll post the overall statistics after the match. Well done, Merlin, with the WIN Picks - 4 out of 5 if I'm not mistaken.... and a healthy profit.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... nice summing up Grex and adds a bit of spice to the ingredients already in the mixing bowl.It never deteriorated into a thread outlining selections and results quite simply as that is basically what it set out to do.One cannot comment on team write ups etc as this is a system born out of the ashes of predictions as outlined in some very clever and individually styled spreadsheets, which embraces sets of statistics modelled to suit the authors requirements as he was far away from the English game and nothing met his immediate needs.Having followed this system for some two years or so now with profits highlighted in both seasons, would hardly seem to constitute the need for splashing out with write ups etc.Nothing wrong though with providing stats, makes decent reading.I shall not be changing anything unless there are indications that the yield can be increased by further tinkering.Latest position after the four wins from five:-

WIN ONLY
Total Staked

270.00

Total Returned

284.60

Yield %

5.41

Winners

17

Losers

10

Total Bets

27

Strike Rate %

62.96

Current Bank

184.60

Profit/Loss

84.60

Start Bank100
Onwards and upwards.:ok
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Thanks, Merlin, for the comments. Last night's X-pick failed to improve a dismal weekend for the draw predictions. So, the overall picture is now:

No. Bets113
Strike Rate37.2%
Yield23.0%
The overall yield is diminishing rapidly - but, shall we give up yet?? NO, I hear you say!! There are 3 X-picks for tonight:
09/10/07English ConfCambridge-Rushden & D
Crawley-Histon
Kidderminster-Halifax
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... No Grex this is not the time to even contemplate giving up, losers are to be expected when draw predictions are around.There is still a point to prove that this system either works or it does not! There has not been enough data used to show this is a loser at this point in time, so time and more results will prove if there is a pot at the end of the rainbow as fas as this system is concerned.In the early days of the 3-0 system a lot of punters gave this no chance to succeed, yet we are still here today to tell the tale.I urge you to continue as surely the strike rate will fall, but with decent prices offered for the draws, I am sure this will come good in the end.:ok

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Thanks for the encouraging words, Merlin.... I certainly needed them after last night's three failures on the X-picks. :sad All three ended with 1-0 home wins :\. That makes it only 4 correct out of the last 23 selections. But, as you say, I should persevere, even if only to prove that the "system" does not work ! There is one X-pick for tomorrow night...... English Conf. Oxford v. Torquay :hope

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. ..... these teams highlighted by the 3-0 system:- Swansea T (a) 2.28 Doncaster R 1.93 Barnet 1.70 Good luck with your draws Grex but I make the Histon v Kidderminster prediction to be 1-2 and have doubled checked all the results.;)

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. You´re absolutely right, Merlin. I had missed one previous result for Kidderminster - so, Histon-Kidderminster is no longer an X-pick (you can now bet your bottom dollar that it will end in a draw :lol). Of the six X-picks for yesterday and today, not one finished in a draw:sad So, the updated performance is:

No. Bets123
Strike Rate35.0%
Yield15.6%
Just one week ago, the figures were; 93 bets, 40.9% strike rate, 33.1% yield...... how the mighty are fallen :\
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Merlin, shame you didn´t post the 3-goal margin selections for today.... I think all 5 won ;). And I think there are 2 for tommorrow... Juventus - Genoa (1.36 @ Bet365) Ath Madrid - Zaragoza (1.90 @ Bet365) Good luck

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Just one draw from the weekend's last 2 selections.... so the overall performance of the X-picks is now:

No. Bets147
Strike Rate35.4%
Yield17.0%
Merlin's 3-goal margin system did exceptionally well, with 7 out of 7 wins. I don't have the odds yet, but the selections were:
20/10/07Carlisle
Wycombe
Aldershot
Arsenal
Inter
21/10/07Juventus
Ath Madrid
[where are you, Merlin ?? :unsure ] The English Championship is playing tomorrow, and the X-picks from MW's sheets are:
23/10/07ECCharlton-Plymouth
Crystal Palace-Stoke
Sheff Wednesday-Scunthorpe
24/10/07Bristol City-Southampton
Cardiff-Wolves
Plus one 3-goal margin selection: West Brom :hope :hope :hope
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... right very nearly caught up but still have spreadsheet to update.This is the latest selections not yet updated:- Arsenal w 2-0 1.28 Carlisle U w 2-0 1.61 Aldershot w 1-0 1.59 Wycombe W w 3-0 1.83 W.B.A. w 2-1 1.62 This weekend only one British selection, so have scoured Euro and only one there also, so into the mix they go:- M.K.Dons 1.51 Barcelona 1.22 Hope to get this up to date over the weekend.;)

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... latest position prior to the weekend's games:- Total Staked 350 Total Returned 397.70 Yield + 13.63% Winners 24 Losers 11 Total Bets 35 Strike Rate 69% Current Bank 147.70 Profit / Loss 47.70 Onwards and upwards.:)

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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Wow..... what a difference a weekend can make :nana:nana 14 of the 26 X-picks ended in draws.... a yield on the weekend of 78% :clap. The overall performance is now...

No. Bets178
Strike Rate37.1%
Yield22.6%
Italy Serie A & Spanish La Liga have a full programme mid-week, so more X-picks will be posted on Tuesday.
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. .... mixed bag this week. Barcelona obliged and MKD gave up the ghost! Latest position:-

Total Staked370
Total Returned409.79
Yield10.75%
Winners25
Losers12
Strike Rate68%
Current Bank139.79
Profit / Loss39.79
Live to fight another day!;)
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Re: Return to Oz and the Michael Wray Experiment. Good performance, Merlin. Let’s hope it keeps getting better. I know you shouldn’t change a winning “team”….. but, I have been doing some back-testing on the MW X-picks and have decided to introduce an “adjustment” by way of a staking system. There is an additional filter which improves yield…. it is quite simple, and relies on the bookies perception of most likely draws. MW’s draw selections which also have a home team Asian Handicap of -0.25 or 0 have been performing much better. Therefore, I propose to double the stake on these selections. Shall we see how it pans out.

Mid week selections are:

DateLgeH TeamA TeamStake
31/10/07IAReggina-Livorno1.0
IARoma-Lazio1.0
IASampdoria-Milan1.0
IASiena-Catania2.0
S1Getafe-Ath Bilbao2.0
:hope
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