Captain Kak Posted June 30, 2006 Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Top man slap :clap :clap :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
divot2583 Posted June 30, 2006 Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Different Class and the doubles are flying too :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 30, 2006 Author Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Thanks, guys, I'm well chuffed with that! I'll do the maths after the football. NOT 1 LOSER IN 12 HORSES NO MORE TO BE SAID I did actually have one loser first time. I think I can confidently say that it won't usually be this good! I think I'm due for four losers soon. ... in fact, I think I'll skip the next one. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 30, 2006 Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission :clap :clap Cheers mate. 60 quid for a 30p e/w lucky 15..:ok So keep up the good work. :D :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted June 30, 2006 Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Around the 1600 quid mark including stake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted June 30, 2006 Author Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Elegant Times (1.50 Wolverhampton) won 11/2 Cunning Pursuit (4.40 Market Rasen) placed 11/2 Cape Sydney (7.45 Newcastle) placed 8/1 Along The Nile (8.20 Newcastle) won 7/1 With an 8 point unit stake, I make that a 1329.57 point profit. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 3015.89 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 3 Profit/Loss: 287.68 Including benefit from 2x bonus: 8 Yield: 319.64% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
traf Posted June 30, 2006 Share Posted June 30, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Third bet: Elegant Times (1.50 Wolverhampton) Cunning Pursuit (4.40 Market Rasen) Cape Sydney (7.45 Newcastle) Along The Nile (8.20 Newcastle) 8 point EW Lucky 15. 240 points staked. Bloody hell, man! Well done! 2 winners: 11/2 and 7/1 2 seconds: 11/2 and 8/1:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steved Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission anymore bets today mate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kak Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission C'mon Slap, get yer predictions up. looks like we all have money to burn today thanks to you :D :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Patience, guys! :lol Check back in a couple of hours or so. I'm only putting these Lucky 15s up when there are four really suitable horses, so chances are there won't be another one today. But I won't know until later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fourth bet: Avelian (3.15 Chester) Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle) Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton) Good Article (8.30 Lingfield) 15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fourth bet: Avelian (3.15 Chester) Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle) Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton) Good Article (8.30 Lingfield) 15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked. Lets hope theirs some bookies left after today and as always the very best of luck with these picks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kak Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Aye, good luck slap:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Sometimes I love you man. :dude :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission :clap :clap Nice one slapdash..but i am a bit peeved as early price went against me today. Good Artical took 5/1 and wins 12/1:wall :wall But still happy to be on a winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission I took sp - learnt my lesson after a few bets the other day drifted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted July 1, 2006 Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Noticed this post earlier today & would like to say WELL DONE Slapdash:ok :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 1, 2006 Author Share Posted July 1, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Avelian (3.15 Chester) placed (11/4) Oh Gracious Me (4.25 Newcastle) lost Ishibee (6.45 Wolverhampton) placed (7/1) Good Article (8.30 Lingfield) won (12/1) 15 point EW Lucky 15. 450 points staked. I make that a 513.07 point profit, including the double odds bonus for one winner. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 3528.96 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 4 Profit/Loss: 321.88 Including benefit from 2x bonus: 20 Yield: 268.33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 2, 2006 Author Share Posted July 2, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission I was falling asleep while I was updating the bank last night, and forgot to say thanks for all the nice comments. Kev, about SP vs. early prices: I'm sticking to SP in this thread, mainly just to keep things simple. But it certainly might be right to take an early price sometimes. All the horses I include here are also included individually in my thread in Systems and Strategy, and there I say if I'm taking an early price or SP. I'm not sure how good I am at choosing though: yesterday I made the right decisions, but I sometimes get it badly wrong. By the way, if you were going to take a price on Good Article, you could have done better by shopping around: if I remember correctly, a couple of bookies had 8/1 in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 2, 2006 Author Share Posted July 2, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission I'm off for a few days holiday, and won't be posting here again until next Saturday at the earliest. By the way, I think it will be unusual for me to have a bet here two days in a row. As I said in the first post, I'm not going to post for the sake of it, and I think one bet every week or two will be typical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steved Posted July 11, 2006 Share Posted July 11, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission i fancy a win today, slappy lad where are you :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lol001 Posted July 12, 2006 Share Posted July 12, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Interesting system. A huge profit for just 4 bets!!! Hope that it will be profitable for a long period But have some question: Actually, some independent bookies offer 3x the odds, but I'll assume 2x here. What bookies offer 3x the odds? It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp). Why do you use lucky15, not lucky31 (Is it any reason to use lucky15)? Also as I see you increase stake after each win. Will you decrease a stake after lose? As I understand you need 3 places in each lucky15 to return you stake and gets some profit Less than 3 places gets a lose. 1 winner only gets a small lose probably 1 winner and 1 place (if 2x or 3x odds) gets a profit. ... So I wonder do you have any history (on paper for example) for your system? How many horses took a place in each lucky15 on the history in average? Of cource 2 winners and 1 or 2 places get a huge profit and compensate loses for other days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 12, 2006 Share Posted July 12, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission What bookies offer 3x the odds? It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp).Betfred in their shops, but only x2 online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 12, 2006 Author Share Posted July 12, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Interesting system. A huge profit for just 4 bets!!! Hope that it will be profitable for a long period I can promise you that it won't continue to be as profitable as this! But I do hope to maintain a level stakes yield of 100%. Note that I said "hope", not "expect"! What bookies offer 3x the odds? It's strange to place a bet in the 2x bookie if I can use 3x bookie (odss are sp). I don't know of an online bookie that offers 3x (Sean Graham may do?). As Fleet Fanatic said, Betfred do in their shops at the moment, and I know of small bookies (not online) that do. I also noticed a William Hill shop offering 3x recently, but that may have been a special offer for a short period. I'm assuming 2x here since many people may not have access to a 3x bookie. Why do you use lucky15, not lucky31 (Is it any reason to use lucky15)? Even in a Lucky 15, it will be a long wait for 3 or 4 winners, so in the short to medium term 5 units of the stake (the 4 win trebles and the 4-fold win accumulator) will likely be "wasted". The "one winner" bonus compensates to an extent. As I said, I estimate that it will be worth about two units on average. In a Lucky 31, there are 10 win trebles, 5 4-fold accumulators and a 5-fold accumulator. So a much higher proportion of the stake goes on win accumulators that will very rarely win. And the "one winner" bonus is only worth about the same as with a Lucky 15. With five selections, I think it would be much better to split the stake five ways and put on five Lucky 15s. Also as I see you increase stake after each win. Will you decrease a stake after lose? Yes. The idea is that the total stake each time will be about 15% of the current bank. The staking system is really just for fun. I tried to estimate what percentage stake would give the fastest growth of the bank, and got a figure a bit higher than 15%. In practice though, if the bank did get anywhere near a million points, then (depending on the size of your "point") you would probably have problems finding bookies willing to take that large a stake on a Lucky 15. As I understand you need 3 places in each lucky15 to return you stake and gets some profit Less than 3 places gets a lose. 1 winner only gets a small lose probably 1 winner and 1 place (if 2x or 3x odds) gets a profit. ... That sounds about right, depending on the odds of course. One winner and one place (at 2x odds) will probably roughly break even. So I wonder do you have any history (on paper for example) for your system? Not really. The individual selections are nothing new: I'm just taking selections from my other system when there are four clear selections on the same day, most at reasonably short odds (so that the win doubles and place trebles will have a reasonable strike rate), and it looks reasonable to take SP. Apart from that, my estimates are just based on the success of the individual bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Fifth bet: Sofooh (2.20 Catterick) Zilcash (4.30 Lingfield) Roya (5.00 Lingfield) Perfect Courtesy (6.35 Sandown) 17 point EW Lucky 15. 510 points staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted July 26, 2006 Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission 1st 1 Placed At 9/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted July 26, 2006 Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission 2nd 1 PLaced 8/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission ... but the third one only came fourth. I need the last one to place now to avoid making a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 26, 2006 Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission ... but the third one only came fourth. I need the last one to place now to avoid making a loss. ....and place it does....albeit at the skinny odds of 4/1 Well done Slapdash:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted July 26, 2006 Author Share Posted July 26, 2006 Re: Lucky 15 Suicide Mission Sofooh (2.20 Catterick) placed (9/1) Zilcash (4.30 Lingfield) placed (8/1) Roya (5.00 Lingfield) lost Perfect Courtesy (6.35 Sandown) placed (4/1) 17 point EW Lucky 15. 510 points staked. I make that a 107.17 point profit. Starting bank 1000 Current bank 3636.13 Level stakes 1 point EW Lucky 15s: Bets: 5 Profit/Loss: 328.18 Including benefit from 2x bonus: 20 Yield: 218.79% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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