project_rockshark Posted June 23, 2006 Author Share Posted June 23, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System UKRAINE WC Rating 56% chance Of Win 77% avr Odds 2.24 logical 125% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 3-0@16 [email protected] Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 23, 2006 Share Posted June 23, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Great to see you doing well here, can hardly wait to see the performance in the regular soccer season. I am however unclear on how the selection process works; Is this based on the available odds ? I.e. if the odds are above 2.00 ? How do you determine this rating ? In other words the odds on the correct scores needs to be 30% higher than the odds for a straight win. Correct ?Any response?:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 23, 2006 Author Share Posted June 23, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System replied via private message Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bish_Bash_Bosh Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Hi PR Have been reading your thread with some interest. I have been using something similar recently, but wondered if you had considered using a bookie rather than betfair? Where you have 2 selections for the day you could do doubles, which may increase you profits substantialy. Obviously the staking may need some attention for this to work, but it's only food for thought. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System I've done some work on Betfairs data files to look at the Correct Scores and how often they win & what their returns are. You may want to change your 'Big 5' selections.;) Alright, my analysis is only over 498 games at the moment but this indicates that the 'Big 5' are (top 5 & your 'Big 5' in yellow):- Net Returns Average Odds Score Occ'ns £502.76 16.71 2 - 2 32 £299.06 15.24 3 - 1 21 £286.11 6.50 Any Unquoted 52 £273.70 6.26 2 - 0 52 £271.68 10.70 3 - 0 28 £259.49 29.83 3 - 2 9 £251.67 5.27 1 - 1 59 £237.37 30.67 2 - 3 8 £204.89 4.66 1 - 0 56 £202.05 9.08 1 - 2 25 £201.36 5.47 0 - 0 45 £196.42 9.18 0 - 2 24 £191.21 6.17 2 - 1 37 £137.78 18.22 1 - 3 8 £127.09 4.74 0 - 1 34 £42.77 8.13 0 - 3 6 £25.58 13.79 3 - 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Nice work Thunderfoot. I'm sure it'll be appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System good work thunderfoot! its great the support this system is getting, and its nice that everyone is pitching their ideas in. very interesting results there the 2-2 is suprising. Will run a side by side test from now on see how the results compare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System SPAIN WC Rating 92% chance Of Win 77% avr Odds 1.932 logical 149% [email protected] [email protected] 2-1@12WRONG [email protected] [email protected] 1-0 168 Total Stake 100 staked=7000 return=7718 p/l=718 yield=10% WON=36 LOST=34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System UKRAINE WC Rating 56% chance Of Win 77% avr Odds 2.24 logical 125% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]WRONG 3-0@16WRONG [email protected]WRONG 1-0 144 Total Stake 100 staked=7100 return=7862 p/l=762 yield=10% WON=37 LOST=34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ARGENTINA WC Rating 89% chance Of Win 68% avr Odds 1.852 logical 126% 1-0@7 2-0@6 2-1@11 [email protected] [email protected] Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System (ALT) ARGENTINA WC Rating 89% chance Of Win 68% avr Odds 1.852 logical 126% 2-2@32 [email protected] [email protected] 2-0@6 [email protected] Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System LIKE THE SET UP OF THAT THUNDER FOOT, also I feel for the alt the stakes will be 'dutch' so the return will be the same no matter the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Interesting to see how it goes tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System replied via private message Nobody seems to have gotten a PM or email, and whats with the PM, you post in public so why not reply in public ? so whats the deal here ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted June 25, 2006 Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Looking at Thunderfoot"s figures it would appear to me much easier to lay everything except 2-2. But I think that it is not that easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted June 25, 2006 Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System I do not bet on correct scores so am unfamiliar with the odds. So I have just gone to to B.F.and looked at some odds there. Their average odds are nothing like the odds Thunderfoot obtained,alas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted June 25, 2006 Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Morning All, I apoligise, but the data I produced included 'IP' and of course this system is based on Odds before the event starts :$ :$ :$ :$ . Taken the 'IP' data out and the new table looks like this : Nett Returns Average Odds Score Occ'ns £777.54 24.30 2 - 2 32 £576.67 11.09 2 - 0 52 £510.26 11.34 0 - 0 45 £508.86 18.17 3 - 0 28 £491.00 61.38 2 - 3 8 £455.69 8.14 1 - 0 56 £441.65 21.03 3 - 1 21 £436.90 18.20 0 - 2 24 £395.61 6.71 1 - 1 59 £382.77 11.26 0 - 1 34 £341.08 6.56 Any Unquoted 52 £335.02 13.40 1 - 2 25 £324.35 8.77 2 - 1 37 £312.33 34.70 3 - 2 9 £250.25 31.28 1 - 3 8 £153.00 76.50 3 - 3 2 £113.62 18.94 0 - 3 6 Of to church now to ask for forgiveness!!:sad Must do better next time :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ARGENTINA WC Rating 89% chance Of Win 68% avr Odds 1.852 logical 126% 1-0@7WRONG 2-0@6WRONG 2-1@11WRONG [email protected] [email protected] 1-1 0 Total Stake 100 staked=7200 return=7862 p/l=662 yield=9% WON=37 LOST=35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ENGLAND WC Rating 84% chance Of Win 64% avr Odds 1.996 logical 128% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 3-1@15 Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System HOLLAND WC Rating 57% chance Of Win 39% avr Odds 3.816 logical 149% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 3-0@36 3-1@29 Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ENGLAND WC Rating 84% chance Of Win 64% avr Odds 1.996 logical 128% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]WRONG [email protected]WRONG 3-1@15WRONG 1-0 132 Total Stake 100 staked=7300 return=7994 p/l=694 yield=9.5% WON=38 LOST=35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 25, 2006 Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System o go on then, ignore me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 26, 2006 Author Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System HOLLAND WC Rating 57% chance Of Win 39% avr Odds 3.816 logical 149% [email protected] [email protected]WRONG [email protected]WRONG 3-0@36WRONG 3-1@29WRONG 0-1 0 Total Stake 100 staked=7400 return=7994 p/l=594 yield=8% WON=38 LOST=36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 26, 2006 Author Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ITALY WC Rating 57% chance Of Win 39% avr Odds 3.816 logical 149% [email protected] [email protected] 2-1@9 [email protected] [email protected] Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 26, 2006 Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System o go on then' date=' ignore me[/quote']Looks like he has and is!:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 26, 2006 Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System :lol Last chance, is this or is this not advertising a (future) subscription based service and therefore spam ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted June 27, 2006 Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System Well if he is I think its fair to say that its obvious to everyone what he's doing so there's no genius in it?? I was dubious about this at the start but overall I have to say congrats to you PR - I know its in a tournie where the fav's overall are doing well but fair dues, it is working. Has to be said - excellent input by Thunderfoot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System ITALY WC Rating 57% chance Of Win 39% avr Odds 3.816 logical 149% [email protected] [email protected] 2-1@9WRONG [email protected]WRONG [email protected]WRONG 1-0 128 Total Stake 100 staked=7500 return=8122 p/l=622 yield=8% WON=39 LOST=36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System BRAZIL WC Rating 90% chance Of Win 75% avr Odds 1.804 logical 135% [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Total Stake 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
project_rockshark Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: The Big 5 System rafa nice to be mentioned.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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