ATP TMS Hamburg & WTA Rome 15th-21st May

[Mr Intensity]

Draw: (1)FEDERER, Roger SUI vs (WC)SCHUETTLER, Rainer GER ROCHUS, Olivier BEL vs FERRERO, Juan Carlos ESP SAFIN, Marat RUS vs Qualifier LOPEZ, Feliciano ESP vs (16)FERRER, David ESP (11)JOHANSSON, Thomas SWE vs MATHIEU, Paul-Henri FRA GASQUET, Richard FRA vs VLIEGEN, Kristof BEL BERDYCH, Tomas CZE vs SERRA, Florent FRA NOVAK, Jiri CZE vs (8)ROBREDO, Tommy ESP (4)DAVYDENKO, Nikolay RUS vs MASSU, Nicolas CHI WAWRINKA, Stanislas SUI vs SEPPI, Andreas ITA SRICHAPHAN, Paradorn THA vs ROCHUS, Christophe BEL SANGUINETTI, Davide ITA vs (13)NIEMINEN, Jarkko FIN (11)ANCIC, Mario CRO vs Qualifier Qualifier vs YOUZHNY, Mikhail RUS MONFILS, Gael FRA vs MURRAY, Andy GBR MOYA, Carlos ESP vs (5)BLAKE, James USA (7)GONZALEZ, Fernando CHI vs TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS HRBATY, Dominik SVK vs (WC)MAYER, Florian CHELA, Juan Ignacio ARG vs VERDASCO, Fernando ESP Qualifier vs (10)CORIA, Guillermo ARG (14)GINEPRI, Robby USA vs GROSJEAN, Sebastien FRA VOLANDRI, Filippo ITA vs PASHANSKI, Boris SCG ACASUSO, Jose ARG vs (WC)GREUL, Simon GER Qualifier vs (3)LJUBICIC, Ivan CRO (6)GAUDIO, Gaston ARG vs MARTIN, Alberto ESP RUSEDSKI, Greg GBR vs Qualifier HORNA, Luis PER vs MIRNYI, Max BLR Qualifier vs (9)KIEFER, Nicolas GER (15)STEPANEK, Radek CZE vs BAGHDATIS, Marcos CYP SANTORO, Fabrice FRA vs (WC)PHAU, Bjorn GER MALISSE, Xavier BEL vs Qualifier HAAS, Tommy GER vs (2)NADAL, Rafael ESP Will Nadal/Federer pull out?:unsure :unsure Hopefully will be another good week. I'll be back with my first selection later tonight:ok.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Sorry the write ups are so shit:$ :$ :$

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	MOYA v Blake
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 1.40 (Back)
Reasoning	Can't see beyond Moya in this one. He's shown decent form recently reaching the semis of Barcelona and taking a set off Nadal in Rome. His clay court game is far superior to Blakes and the American isn't playing too well. Last week he lost a shocking game against Serra and looked completely inept on the red stuff. I mentioned last weeks Blakes poor record on clay (outside America) and I can't see it getting any better. H2H is 5-1 to Moya winning the only meeting on a quick clay court in straight sets. Should be a solid way to start the week.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	O ROCHUS v Ferrero
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	I backed Rochus last week against Baghdatis and it all went wrong but I'm willing to give him another go. He should be feeling good after winning the title in Munich coming back into Germany. His style is also one that can frustrate Ferrero and force him into errors. We saw last week when getting hammered by Mathieu that he is capable of losing to anyone - this inconsistancy makes him very opposable when he's favourite. Rochus has a decent shot here and I fancy him for an upset.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	T JOHANSSON v Mathieu
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm not really sure Johansson should be this much of an outsider here. He made his comeback last week and did alright, winning a match before going out to Henman - but he was struggling under the lights and to be honest didn't play too bad for a set. I'd expect him to improve and here has a pretty average opponent. I mentioned last week how Mathieu has mentally fell apart a few times recently and that makes him a dodgy favourtie. I think it's a pretty decent match up for Johansson from the back and the courts at Hamburg are a little quicker than most clay courts which should help. Mathieu beat Johansson on clay in Davis Cup last year but he was at home and it was a pretty close 4 setter. Decent odds here I think.

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	BERDYCH v Serra
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	>Bet365 @ 1.53 (Back)
Reasoning	I mentioned last week that Serra was playing badly and after beating Blake he totally fell apart against Ancic so I'm not expecting much from him this week. He's had a shocker of a year after showing a lot of promise in January and I expect that to continue. Berdych was starting to play a bit better last week before running into Gonzalez and I think he's a solid favourite. The courts in Hamburg should suit him and he could have a decent week.

I'll also be on Waske against Ancic but no prices available tonight:unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	WASKE v Ancic
Strength	10/10
Date	15/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Expekt @ 3.35 (Back)
Reasoning	I think Waske is a very lively dog here and has a decent shot of causing an upset. Ancic did alright in Rome but got extremely lucky in two of his matches before the luck ran out against Nalbandian. However, he’s struggling with a back problem and may not be 100% for this. It’s also tough to see him playing well on clay in consecutive weeks which makes him very opposable. Waske is generally pretty average on clay but at home he’s capable of getting a result. He came through qualifying comfortably and that should set him up well for this. H2H is 3-1 to Ancic but Waske won the only meeting on clay.

[WinningTipster]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Hi guys, We continue with the following picks: ATP TOUR, HAMBURG, MONFILS TO D MURRAY @ 1.54 on pinnacle GROSJEAN TO D GINEPRI @ 1.44 on betfair WTA TOUR, RABAT CZINK TO D PARRA SANTONJA @ 1.65 on pinnacle Murray loves playing attacking big serving players because he has such a good return of serve, but he always had difficulties winning matches against consistent baseliners on any surface. Monfils showed his good form last week and is simply a better clay court player than Murray. As I wrote last week - Ginepri simply can not play on clay. Grosjean is coming back from injuiry thats why the odds are relatively high. For the same match at Roland Garros, the odds could go down to 1.2. Parra Santonja has not won a match on the main WTA tour in 2006, and is having difficulties even in lower level tournaments losing to players ranked 200-300. Even on her favourite clay, Parra Santonja is an underdog against talented Hungarian Czink, who is having an OK season and played OK in both matches last week. www.WinningTipster.com

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Oh god, bad start, Moya and Berdych lose the first set:sad Edit: Bloody scoreboard changed, Berdych broke back serving *4-5 I'm pissed off already with this scoreboard, going to be a long week:wall

[Canaletto]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May What is wrong with Blake? My mother could beat him! Awful to watch after the brilliant match yesterday!

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May 10pts GGL over Youzhny @ 2.2 - seems silly, but I'll go against anyone who has lost to Coria in this clay season. That and GGL has went through quallies, so he's been on the surface. Youzhny made it past the first purely because of a collapsing Seppi in Rome. GGL isn't exactly as solid as concrete, but he should hold fine. 10pts Ancic over Waske @ 1.4 - Waske could be a dark horse in this one and win, being a quallie and while not winning, losing to quality. Ancic has however shown some solid play over the European court season. He's worth backing 10pts Verdasco over Chela @ 2.02 - Chela has a 2-0 record against Verdasco, which is the only reason why 'dasco is a dog in this one. Chela hasn't shown any form since the Aus. Open. I don't expect him to show anything here either.

[Canaletto]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Blake thrown away two match points. I really do not think this betting lark is for me sadly!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

Blake thrown away two match points. I really do not think this betting lark is for me sadly!

Berdych is worse, serving to stay in it went 0-40. Only managed to save 1 of them:sad. I've lost loads on this kid this year, I don't understand him:\ :\.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Awful start to the week, I need some of my bigger prices to come through:sad

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May disastrous start for me as well. I can't believe Moya lost that. Blake was so cramped that he literally couldn't run in the final couple of games.

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May 10pts Tojo over Mathieu @ 3.75 - Going the silly route, he lost to Coria on clay this year ;). The serious route, Mathieu while played, hasn't done much this year. Beating Ferrero is his highlight, and Ferrero isn't exactly Nadal... ToJo is recovering, ... still. However, he represents huge value @ 3.75. I can't see him even playing if he wasn't at least comfortable with his sight, so hopefully he can start his own highlight reel. 6pts Anyone v Safin @ 4.4 - Look, by all accounts Safin should win this. Saretta can say he's lost to quality players this year, he can also say that coming in as a qualifier can take the edge versus someone who just doesn't do all that well on clay. But I'm taking this as there is no way in hell Safin's opponent is a 4.4 longshot on a surface he's yet to prove himself on the past couple of years. Game on! Djokovic v Coria ... what were the odds when they started? Was going to get on this huge but had some work to do, so I missed. I love making money on Coria this year.

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

Awful start to the week' date=' I need some of my bigger prices to come through:sad[/quote'] Guess work running late has its upsides, all of those calls I would have jumped on, so you didn't miss anything. Though, we're less than a month away from Roland Garros and wild things tend to happen around now. Why can't the ATP standardize on the flash widget they normally use? Would make things a lot easier. Though it's slow, I don't mind the play by play widget that the Davis cup uses either. Sadly this is a hell of a lot better than the WTA Prague from last week, talk about a joke! Betfair has ToJo @ 3.9 now - any new information that warrants it, or the market just hoping that his sight will come into play?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

Betfair has ToJo @ 3.9 now - any new information that warrants it, or the market just hoping that his sight will come into play?

I hope not:hope Nadal and Federer pulled out. No Nalbandian, Almagro, Roddicl. Hamburg must be pissed off:lol :lol. Outright market will be interesting if anyone decided to put one up tonight:unsure :unsure

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May I'm getting tired of waiting for Coria to lose so ToJo comes to play (next in order to play). Ancic came in slow but doesn't seem to have any problems finishing off Waske, GGL came in solid style. ... talked, er typed too soon... Either Chela has actually came to play, or he really likes playin' 'dasco. Only the second time since the AO he's taken anyone 6-1 in the first set. "no match in progress", "sorry, server too busy" ....grr, first day and already overloaded. Can't wait til QF:eyes

[Martin]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May When does Monfils play Murray? I cant see it on the order of play but the odds are gone which I assume means its on now or soon?

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May They don't play today, I'm sure of that (unless all of these late pull outs have moved everything around). Right now it appears they are second in order of play tomorrow.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May haha. what happens when a bookie mistakenly pays out on the wrong winner? Should I just withdraw all my cash immediately before they realise or what?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

haha. what happens when a bookie mistakenly pays out on the wrong winner? Should I just withdraw all my cash immediately before they realise or what?

You could try it mate, nothing to lose, see what happens:unsure :unsure All of my ****ers lost:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin . -50pts for the week. Well, last week I said each tournament I have one day bad, so everything's going to be great from here on in:loon :loon

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May 6pts Phau over Santoro @ 2.75 - I wasn't going to go for this when the odds were around 2.4, but now 2.75 represents value IMO. Santoro won the only match between these two. However, it was on HC, in 2003, and when Santoro had some form. Now he's three years older, both have average form, and their history here in Hamburg isn't all that flash. Both of these players have topped at the 16, Santoro last week. Though his path wasn't the hardest. Phau in Casa and Munich. With Santoro's age, lack of clay time and the form of both players I see this match closer to even, so I'm taking the value bet.

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

You could try it mate, nothing to lose, see what happens:unsure :unsure All of my ****ers lost:rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin . -50pts for the week. Well, last week I said each tournament I have one day bad, so everything's going to be great from here on in:loon :loon

There's some value in tomorrows matches mate :ok. Even more so now that the kings of tennis decided that time off was ... a good thing.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May I'll just wait and see what happens. It's only a small amount so I can't really be bothered withdrawing all the money and closing my account. Fed and Nadal withdrawing has left me with mixed feelings. On one hand I backed Gonzo yesterday at 36, which now looks like a huge price but on the other, I feel like a complete tit because I only put minimum stakes on it even though I was convinced the big 2 would withdraw.

[robby]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Well, not a bad start. Thanks in a large part to Safin :) 5-1 +54.3pts Sadly I'm just over broke even from the tennis and afl debacles I had last weekend. So we'll start afresh tomorrow. And if it were me owning 'stock' in Gonzo I'd start laying it to cover a profit either way. This is the first tourny he's done in back to back weeks this year. Could catch him out:unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Great stuff robby:ok

[FootballTennis]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Monfils to bt Murray @ 1/2 Simon to bt Rusedski @ 4/9 Double with Ladbrokes, 30pts returns 65pts another bet because these 2 players I am betting against are british and the odds have been inflated. Monfils is in great form, Simon has shown some good qualities in the past month.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May Don't fancy too much tomorrow, confidence gone:sad. Only these:

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	WAWRINKA v Seppi
Strength	10/10
Date	16/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.62 (Back)
Reasoning	Wawrinka had a very good week in Barcelona a few weeks ago reaching the semis before losing to Robredo, and after a first round loss to Gonzalez last week, I expect him to be pretty good here. But this is more a play against Seppi, who has been shocking lately. He's had easy losses to Phau and Youzhny and he's generally really struggling on his serve. Wawrinka is the type to take advantage of this and I expect him to come through. H2H is 2-2 with Seppi winning the two on clay, but Wawrinka is a much better player now and I think he can get his first win on clay against Seppi.

I'll have another look tomorrow, might see something different:unsure :unsure

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

. And if it were me owning 'stock' in Gonzo I'd start laying it to cover a profit either way. This is the first tourny he's done in back to back weeks this year. Could catch him out:unsure

I think I'll wait for a while because surely he can't lose to Tursunov. Although I'm not so confident after Blake beat Moya despite not being able to move. Anyway, I've taken Gonzo to win in straight sets as well. 1.38 on betfair. He was really impressive in patches against Nadal and would have beaten almost anyone else playing at that level. H2H is 2-0 in Gonzo's favour, both on hardcourts, so in theory it should be a breeze for him on Tursunov's worst surface. I also think Davydenko could be worth opposing less than a week after yet another injury, although it'll be small stakes only as Massu's form doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

[A-Team]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May long day Mr I? You've posted the write-up twice.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

long day Mr I? You've posted the write-up twice.

Yes:sad There should be 2 matches....I'll fix it:$ :$ Also entered one of them as ATP Rome:$ :$ :$. Formatting was ****ed when I tried to add the second one, so I've posted it below.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP TMS Hamburg 15th-21st May

Sport	Tennis
Event	ATP Hamburg
Selection	SIMON 2-0 v Rusedski
Strength	10/10
Date	16/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	Yeah Rusedski got a couple of wins last week but Robredo was awful adn the Italian guy kept choking when he went ahead or had any kind of a chance. We need to remember how bad Rusedski is on clay and how good his opponent has been performing. He's 11-3 in the European clay court season and has been very impressive. He's had a few weeks rest since having to retire in Casablanca and came through qualifying here pretty strong. His returning is very good and he's not afraid to be aggresive from the back so shouldn't allow Rusedski to get comfortable and into a rythem at the back like some clay courters do. Anything above even money is very decent for the 2-0.