Spanish Grand Prix 14th May

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix Qualifying
Selection	ALONSO pole position
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingodds @ 3.00 (Back)
Reasoning	At the last race we saw Renault adopt a new strategy in qualifying; to be pretty light and go for pole. This is because they realise that Ferrari have improved and they can't afford a heavy first stint in the pack allowing Schumacher (and Massa who is abley backing him up) to run away early on. This strategy wasn't too effective i stopping Schumacher but at no point was he really at threat of not finishing second - this would not have been the case had he started heavy. I think they now realise that at the moment the Ferrari is the superior package so to be in with a chance they have to go for pole. Ferrari also realise this and I'm sure they're happy to start slightly heavier and have the master do his thing when Alonso pits. This I feel creates a decent situation for Alonso in qualifying and IMO he should be favourite for this. He is capable of hauling the Renault round for one qualifying lap but at the moment doesn't seem able to match him over long runs (not sure if that's because of the Renault or Michelin). Also, at home, he's want to put on a show, and I can see him going for an aggresive strategy in qualifying.

I'll try to find some H2H's in the morning:unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Couple of decent H2H's here I feel:

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix: Qualifying H2H
Selection	MONTOYA v Raikkonen
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.75 (Back)
Reasoning	I'm willing to give Montoya a shot here, at pretty generous odds. The important thing here is that Montoya has a new engine here and Raikkonen is using the one from last week. Kimi was pushing hard for a lot of that race even towards the end to try and catch Massa and they are concerned about this engine. They've been concerned from the start with it, and I don't think they want another engine blowing. Thus, I think Kimi will have a passive weekend, and I think that means a conservative strategy. If they are going to get a very good result this weekend, they need to run less fuel than normal and adopt a racy strategy as Reanult and Ferrari are very quick. The one to do this with would be Montoya as he has the new engine and can afford to run it a bit harder. These two have tended to be pretty close in qualifying so far this year and because of that you have to take the big price on offer here.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix: Qualifying H2H
Selection	COULTHARD v Klien
Strength	10/10
Date	13/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Not sure I agree with DC being the outsider in this one, and I willing to have a go on DC. Klien started the year on fire in qualifying making the final session in the first two races but since then DC has beaten him in the last 3 races. Klien seems to get into a few problems in these sessions, and certainly isn't as adept at finding space and the right part of the track at the right times lately. He also seems under pressure for his seat from Doornbos who is doing a great job on Fridays - he could go two ways because of this; either become inspired or crumble, and I think he might crumble in a hectic session. DC struggled so much with one-shot qualifying but I think he's adapting to it and getting better. I think DC will be able to make it solidly into the second session and end up 12-14th - Klien has similar place but I think he's more likely to mess up the first session. If there's both in the second session I still think it's 50/50. Klien was just under a tenth quicker in Saturday practice but that sort of margin isn't really a performance indicator in practice.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May God damn it that's a bad start - bad DC:wall

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Montoya out - why do I bother with qualifying?:lol :lol :lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Alonso took pole - so I'm level for qualifying, I'll take that:lol :lol Grid looks very interesting:ok (I always say that:tongue2)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Here we go.....

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	MASSA to finish on the podium
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Last week Massa was my boy getting the job done and finishing on the podium. I'm going to give him another shot this week in what should be a good battle with Schumi and the Renaults. If we assume that Alonso and Schumi will end up 1-2 this becomes a straight battle between Fisichella and Massa. I'm willing to go with Massa as it appears Renault have gone all out for qualifying with the hope of hanging on in the race. Pat Symonds says they've gone with the "aggresive tyre choice" which most likely means the softer one for more pace in qualifying. A lot of people think Ferrari have gone with the harder Bridgestone for a race strategy - we've seen these tyres improve throughout stints and be really good at the end of the stint - this could be the same time as the soft Michelins are fading and could create a couple of occasions during the race where Ferrari have a big performance advantage. Also in qualifying Fisichella was very very close to Alonso and there wasn't anything wrong with Alonsos lap - so I think Fisi is going to be the lightest of the top 4. The start will be interesting, we know the Renaults are hot off the line, but, with Fisi on the dirty side and a long run down to the first corner I think Schumi has a decent shot at him. If he stays ahead of Schumacher then he will be a little pressured to try and contain Schumi and not use the performance advantage he has, which will hurt later in the race. If Schumi manages to get past then he will be right there in front of Massa who I think is quite heavy (relative to the 3 in front) and strategically he should have the edge. Also I've been impressed with Massa most of this and I think he's capable of a very solid drive. I'm not thinking about anyone else being in terms of pace, as the Toyotas and Hondas look nowhere near the pace and the McLarens are struggling and a long way down the grid. Decent chance IMO for Massa to get a second consecutive podium.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	WEBBER to finish in the points
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 2.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Basically backing both of the Williams guys to finish in the points. Both odds against so only 1 is needed for a profit. Starting 11th and 13th and able to choose optimal fuel load I think think is a great chance to get some solid points. I don't know what's happening to them in qualifying, but all season they've struggled with single lap pace. It could be tyres, but Ferrari and Toyota are performing, so it must be how they are using them. Anyway, they are using them well in the race, as we've seen Webber running strongly in a few races and Rosberg twice coming from the back to finish in the points. As we've seen with Ferrari they come good and are very strong towards the end of stints. I think they'll have gone for a pretty solid fuel load and look to do some damage to the Hondas and Toyotas when they make there first stops. I also think they'll have a decent pace advantage over Heidfeld and both of the McLarens (especially Kimi - they're very concerned about his engine) are vunerable. There race pace at times is very close to the Renaults/Ferraris so I think they'll make good progress. Reliability is a concern, however, I think they're improving on that and I'm hopeful of a double finish. If they do I can't see either of them being outside the points.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	ROSBERG to finish in the points
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Basically backing both of the Williams guys to finish in the points. Both odds against so only 1 is needed for a profit. Starting 11th and 13th and able to choose optimal fuel load I think think is a great chance to get some solid points. I don't know what's happening to them in qualifying, but all season they've struggled with single lap pace. It could be tyres, but Ferrari and Toyota are performing, so it must be how they are using them. Anyway, they are using them well in the race, as we've seen Webber running strongly in a few races and Rosberg twice coming from the back to finish in the points. As we've seen with Ferrari they come good and are very strong towards the end of stints. I think they'll have gone for a pretty solid fuel load and look to do some damage to the Hondas and Toyotas when they make there first stops. I also think they'll have a decent pace advantage over Heidfeld and both of the McLarens (especially Kimi - they're very concerned about his engine) are vunerable. There race pace at times is very close to the Renaults/Ferraris so I think they'll make good progress. Reliability is a concern, however, I think they're improving on that and I'm hopeful of a double finish. If they do I can't see either of them being outside the points.

I'm off to find some specials/H2H's:ok

[Carl]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May great write ups mate:clap good luck with this:hope.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May

great write ups mate:clap good luck with this:hope.

Cheers mate. There'll be some more coming up in the next couple of hours (if the write ups get progressively shorter it means I'm knackered:lol)

[davidmphill]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Aye, great work here Mr I. Hope your work gets the reward it deserves.:ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Well ive more or less put a lot of eggs in one basket this week, basically im opposing the Ferraris and hoping the Renaults hold on in front. A track that is difficult to overtake im banking on a clean start from the front and Fisichella holding up Schumacher. Decided to LAY Schumacher @2.92 (£300 available) Back Fisichella for a Podium Evens@ Skybet Back Fisichella EW 8/1@ SportingOdds , just in case Alonso hits trouble. Also Backed Ralf to get in the points at Betfair as Evens was too tempting, hes in 6th on the grid, the Toyota's look fast enough this weekend and Trulli and Button are in behind who will hold up the McClarens- I hope! Best of luck MR.I, nice call with Alonso in Qual.

[gazabroad]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Hi Mr. I, I always look forward to your posts here as the info is usually pretty much spot on:ok I have always loved F1 since I was a kid and used to go to Brands Hatch to watch the practice and qualifying the day before race days. It was free to get in then and you could wander round the pits and chat to the drivers.I still have all the autographs somewhere and James Hunt was my favourite back then. Just wanted to say that the info is greatly appreciated (unfortunately our local bookie here wont take bets on it) but I still take part in the fantasy comps and last week transferred Massa in as a result of your info.:D Getting onto tomorrows race, I get the distinct impression that it could almost be a re-run of the last. I personally dont rate Fisichella much and will be surprised if he finishes in the top 6.There again you never know, but I wouldn´t back him with any confidence. If the Williams manage to hold up I think a small outside bet on Rosberg or Webber to make the points could be interesting. Looking forward to the race and hoping its not gonna be too much of a procession from the main two:lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May

Just wanted to say that the info is greatly appreciated (unfortunately our local bookie here wont take bets on it) but I still take part in the fantasy comps and last week transferred Massa in as a result of your info.:D

Nice:nana. Which comps you in?:unsure

Decided to LAY Schumacher @2.92 (£300 available) Back Fisichella for a Podium Evens@ Skybet Back Fisichella EW 8/1@ SportingOdds , just in case Alonso hits trouble. Also Backed Ralf to get in the points at Betfair as Evens was too tempting, hes in 6th on the grid, the Toyota's look fast enough this weekend and Trulli and Button are in behind who will hold up the McClarens- I hope!

Good luck mate:ok (hopefully Schumi retires then Massa can get 2nd and your lad can get third:lol) And thanks everyone:cow (I need to stop looking at this thread, trying to type up my H2H's:lol )

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	BARRICHELLO v Button
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.17 (Back)
Reasoning	Really don't think Barri should be the outsider for this, some UK books go 1.83 the pair and even then I think it's more than fair for Barri. He's overcome his braking problems in the last few races and now looks a match for Button. He starts 5th with Button 8th and those Toyotas look a big barrier inbetween - especially if the Bridgestones start a little then come into it - Barri could creat a little gap. Also Button is likely to have more problems from behind early on, with both McLarens and Williams behind him - there's a chance he could get bumped out of the top 10 early on! I think at the last race Barri proved he can equal Button on race pace and this is a great opportunity for him to pick up some points and help his reputation against his team-mate. In the final qualifying session Button added some front wing to his car which seriously affected the balance and thus his position. Barri was 2 tenths quicker and with Buttons problems I think they'll be very similar on fuel, possibly even Barri a little heavier. I think this is at worst 50/50 and perhpas Barri should be a slight favourite.

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	VILLENEUVE v Coulthard
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Both these guys start at the back, but I can't see why JV isn't a stronger favourite. He's been driving great the past few races and should be looking to get through the field in a car that's capable of top 10 pace. DC had a big crash in qualifying, and I feel that could be the start of a bad weekend for his 200th race. They Red Bull is still struggling for pace and reliability and I can't see any advantage it has over the BMW. Klien and DC were both quick in Saturday practice but one session doesn't make it a quick car and other than that the BMW has outpaced it all season. I can see Villeneuve getting past a few cars in this race but DC will probably end up fighting the Toro Rossos. Should be closer to 1.50 IMO and only reliability problems should stop it happening.

Don't fancy much this week, I'll have another look in the morning:unsure

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Just a quick one, I fancy Schumi to take it this afternoon:unsure

Sport	Motorsport
Event	Spanish Grand Prix
Selection	M SCHUMACHER to win
Strength	10/10
Date	14/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.87 (Back)
Reasoning	The more I think about it, I can really see Schumi taking this. There pace has been awesome and even on old tyres they are getting close to the Renault pace which is scary. Schumi is awesome round here and I think we'll see another vintage performance this afternoon. He's 3rd on the grid behind both Renaults but I can't see Fisichella causing much of a problem. Last year in Japan he totally cracked under the pressure from Raikkonen and if he sets out to hold Michael up he will be eaten alive. The Ferraris and there dodgy rear wing have awesome straight line speed so he should be able to create overtaking opportunities, especially at the end of S2 (forgot the corner name!) where Ferrari have been particualrly strong. Otherwise, I'm sure the Ferraris have more fuel and can afford to lose 3-4 seconds to Alonso in the first stint. This will no doubt be another tactical race and Ferrari have got the better of Renault in the last 2 races, and we're getting a decent price on them doing it again.

[Norfolk Enchance]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Nice work Mr I... I see the 2.17 at pinncle has been slashed. Don't suppose there is an odds comparison site that has head to heads?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Cheers mate:ok Not that I know of, you have to go searching manually:sad. The places that do H2H are Stan James, Will Hill, Ladbrokes, Blue Sq, Pinnacle. I think that's it - Pinnacles 2.06 is still the best for Barri, still a decent price.

[Bamse81]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Nice work as always Mr. I!!! Top quality and very interesting reading. GL with your selections. :ok

[F1man]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Not much time before this kicks off. I have gone for MS to win, reckon at 3.35 on betfair is a good price, as the new wing should help in overtaking and the MS always seems to get the critcal seconds when it counts recently. Gone for Massa to beat Fisi. I like Fisi but he is not looking good at the moment, and never looked to good in the Renault. At 2.32 at Pinnacle I see it as a good price. Also gone for KR to beat Fisi at 2.9 for the same reason. Taken Rubens to beat Button, as Mr I has stated above. 2.06 is still a good price, should have got up earlier though. Trulli to beat Ralf. Not much in this pair so at 2.3 I went for Trulli at Pinnacle again. At blue square went for BMW to beat Williams. If all the teams finish both of these will srtuggle to get in the points. I fancy that Heidfeld is going very well this weekend has got a chance of beating the Williams. Therefore if only one of the BMW or Williams get in the points then this bet could come af. 4 at Blue Square. Also went for Heidfeld in the points at 2.75. Ferrari to get more points than Renault. This bet again is opposing Fisi. Watch him win the damn thing now. 3.25 at Blue Square. Sorry so brief. F1man

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May This is looking bad, need some luck in the second half of the race:hope

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Spanish Grand Prix 14th May Ah well, first shit race of the year. Bridgestones didn't work at all, -42.8pts for the weekend. Still, +86.1pts for the year:ok. Great stuff from BillyHills:clap :clap :clap :clap