GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Ok - how well do you know Poker Odds? WITHOUT using a calculator and WITHOUT looking at others comments and WITHOUT looking at other peoples votes answer the question below (and vote your answer in the poll) Afterwards - put down your best estimate of the percentage chance you believe you have against each of the 10 hands (in a post in this thread) - I will sum the total variances (don't worry about that too much - basically will get a score and lowest score wins) for each player and put results up here :ok !"- ,,,,,&,,,, You are dealt the cards above. What cards would your opponent be holding if you had a 48.76% chance of winning? 1)%^ ######'# 2){&} //////&/// 3){&} }}}}}&}}}} 4)!){ [}} 5)!){ ''''''&''' 6)//////&/// |||||&|||| 7)//////&/// ''''''&''' 8)''''''&''' ######'# 9)''''''&''' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? i'd say the pocket 5s, hand 10. the rest 1) 72% 2) 43% 3) 45% (close i know) 4) 26% 5) 45% 6) 38% 7) 65% 8) 43% 9) 67% just ran my own calc on it .. some are good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? lol - 4 different answers from 4 different players so far........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
morlspin Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? balls, i didnt read question properly lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guesswest Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Total guesswork on my part. Will be will impressed if anyone actually works this out in their head! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Changed slightly - if you want to do the second part - list your estimate of the odds against all 10 hands - just in case you've got the main question wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lemonjon Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? pair 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAULM03 Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 7s for me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? I think 88 is 50% so need to go with 77 as just under that. Now you know the type of logic i use when i play lol :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masterplan Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 88 would be about 30% :p if not less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Masterplan is on average 5.46% out per question..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 10 7 H: 45,6 J9 D.:43,5 J6 D.: 45,1 AA: 23.4 A7: 48.76 99: 39.2 97 D: 52.5 77: 49.8 75D: 54.5 55: 49.8 ...there... that made me look like a fool :loon JEEEEEEZ.... I did some of them backwards.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Pene is an average of 8.21% out.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpurMan Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 77 for me too, but am not gonna make myself look a muppet by doing the others!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 77 for me too' date=' but am not gonna make myself look a muppet by doing the others!!![/quote'] lol - spoilsport - suspect that is the prevailing attitude with only 2 daring to attempt it....... Come on - you're amongst friends - and it'll help you learn...... If anyone wants to do it anonymously - then PM me - I'll put it up as "Player X" and PROMISE I won't share with anyone (and if you get a good result, you may choose to remove your anonymity) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penelopeys Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? He he... sissies.... ;) After my answers NOONE will look more like a muppet.... I AM SCANDINAVIAN QUEEN MISS PIGGY... what did I win??? :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? I AM QUEEN MISS SCANDINAVIAN PIGGY... what did I win??? :loon We can give you a virtual wooden spoon if you like :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpurMan Posted April 22, 2006 Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? lol - spoilsport - suspect that is the prevailing attitude with only 2 daring to attempt it....... Come on - you're amongst friends - and it'll help you learn...... If anyone wants to do it anonymously - then PM me - I'll put it up as "Player X" and PROMISE I won't share with anyone (and if you get a good result, you may choose to remove your anonymity) Oh all right then. Up for ridicule: 10 7 H: 75 J 9 D.:44 J 6 D.: 45 A A: 20 A 7: 44 9 9: 35 (Except when I am holding them and your chances are zero!! Beware the Spur with the 99!!!) 9 7D: 64 7 7: 48.76 7 5D: 70 5 5: 50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 22, 2006 Author Share Posted April 22, 2006 Re: Know your odds? 7.44% Spurman :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eltrev Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Went for J6s as I usually only hit my autopilot pot odds button in my head post flop and even then I'm working out what I feel I need to take down the pot blah, blah, blah........ Anyone who could immediately evaluate this accurately should be playing on a very high playing field. Most of us could immediately eliminate the options where we are obviously behind or well ahead, but the remaining options are pretty tight. I think that most players on this forum know to base their pot odds calcs on the fact that they have seen the flop. Depending on my situation (eg red zone) the odds implied mean nothing as I'm looking for a potentially strong hand to play depending on position and looking for a call against an Ace rag big stack. Without being critical, I don't see where this benefits anyone, (although it is fun) 'cos I have spent a lot of time (and money) learning about pot odds with 15-18 seconds available. I like the idea of this type of question as it would help regular players and new members to the forum, but let's use situations that we are likely to experience. Sorry again, don't mean to be negative,(just an opinion), but I've had a couple of "refreshments" and couldn't think of a situation that I'd need to do this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Well you're right in one way - it's definitely not a realistic situation - cos you never know exactly what your opponents cards are ........ I think it's useful though to know how accurately you know the odds - the more accurate you are the better decisions you can make IMO - even pre flop..... You're right though - for the next one I'll do it post flop - so for this one just humour me :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Interesting though that 8 of the 10 options have had a vote - and 5 of them are close at the top - not as easy as it may seem......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Hmm I clicked pocket 5 but after actually going through doing my own % for each I wish id picked 77 now :lol more likely that. When I saw 49% chance for 108s I thought underpair before i looked at any of them anyway. Heres my % guesses... 69 37 45 20 45 32 63 49 65 50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigmal76 Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? sevens for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 23, 2006 Author Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Well done Mr M - 1.8% :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eltrev Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Thanks GaF, It's stiill interesting to see when people think they are ahead or behind in any given situation. Great idea for a thread though if people honestly reply within the typical given online time limits as it can only help players who play in tourneys and qualify for (or choose to play in) live tourneys. At the end of the day, any kind of training for the poker brain has to be good. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Sweet not bad :D Although i a total geek so its to be expected :sad I say 77 instead of 55 now as well again for the record. In rashly clicked 55 before thinking about it properly :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Typed up last night but PC screwed up AGAIN - thankfully I was saving it in notepad every other sentence!! Okay... 1. vs T7s - you're dominating him, only 3 cards to help him (with flush possibilites cancelling each other out.) 6%ish chance of him hitting the 7 each card, so 30%ish chance of him hitting one - but 30%ish chance of you hitting your 8. (Rough because discounting trips, etc.) For him to win, he needs to hit the 7 without you hitting the 8, so call it 30% of 70% - 21% chance of him winning. (Again rough, as they're not independent events.) Small chance of split pot, I'll say 77% chance you take it. 2. vs J9s - hmmm... let's use above calcs to estimate that J,T,9,8 all have 30% chance of being paired. Going to ignore trips, etc, as the probabilities will be small enough to roughly cancel out. (At least within a few %) To win, you need either: T paired w/out J being paired - going on the above, 21%. 8 paired w/out J being paired or 9 being paired. 30% of 70% of 70%, 14.7% Knock a little off for split pot, call it 35% chance of you getting it. 3. vs J6s - Similar to above (with poss a tiny add-on at the end because you're much more likely to get a straight than he is. To win, you need either: T paired w/out J being paired - going on the above, 21%. 8 paired w/out J being paired - again, 21%. Knock the bit off for split pot, 41% maybe? 4. vs AA... hell, I know this one. Something like 22% chance that two unpaired lower cards beat AA, possibly a bit higher for suited... 24%, say. 5. vs A7o... Like the J6, he has one card higher than both yours and one card lower. So I'm guessing the chances of him winning are roughly the same, minus a few percent for not being suited. Will say 43% for you. 6. vs 99 - you need the T to pair, really. Hoping the chances of the 9's hitting trips will ROUGHLY (but we're now talking very roughly) wipe out the chances of your 7 hitting trips. (Obviously more likely for the 9 to, but these are extremely inexact, as I keep pointing out.) Actually, forget that, I'll try and work it out a teeny bit more properly. T paired w/out 9 hitting trips - 30% of 80% - 24%. 7 hitting trips w/out 9 hitting trips - 30% of 20% of 80% - 4.8% (Above based on 4% chance of a 9 each card, and a 6% chance of a 7, going down to 4% if you hit one.) Add a bit more for prob of straights and flushes, take a bit off for split pot, call it 30%. 7. vs 97s - pretty much the reverse of going up against J9s, so I'll guess 65% chance of winning. 8. vs 77 - I'm guessing this is the 48.76 one, as the chances of beating a pair with 2 higher suited connectors are around 50-50, and T8 is close enough to connectors to not change things much. So 48.76%. 9. vs 75s - Villain needs to pair either without you pairing either. (Or hit trips without you hitting trips.) On calcs from 2, 7 paired w/out T being paired or 8 being paired. 30% of 70% of 70%, 14.7% 5 paired w/out T being paired or 8 being paired. 30% of 70% of 70%, 14.7% So 29.4% of him hitting, so 70.6% chance he doesn't. Wipe a bit off for split pots, 67%? 10. vs 55 - Extremely similar to 77, but slightly better chance of a straight - 49%? Right, I'm just back from my holiday down in Torquay and am blaming that on any incredibly stupid mathematical mistakes made!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaded Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Just checked myself - scared by how far off I was on one! Not too shabby with the rest of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedonist Posted April 23, 2006 Share Posted April 23, 2006 Re: Know your odds? Here is my guess: 1. 70% 2. 40% 3. 45% 4. 25% 5. 45% 6. 30% 7. 60% 8. 48.76% 9. 60% 10. 48.76% I know you are a slight underdog with 2 overcards against a pair so can't decide between 8 and 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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