FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Oops - I copied and pasted that Newton Abbot one wrong. Empress Jain IS NOT entered for Newton Abbot. THURSDAY 11th May: Current +/-: +493.39pts 3.00 YARMOUTH Stage Gift 1st 6/4 :clap 4.10 YARMOUTH Tawaassol 2nd :$ bloody 20/1 shot won 7.05 WETHERBY Rookery Lad 1 x 1pt treble, 3 x 3pts doubles, 3 x 5pts singles. 25pts staked. Other races rated: 1.50 CHESTER Maraahel 1st 4/11 ;) 2.20 CHESTER Judd Street 2nd 4/1 2.50 CHESTER Papal Bull 1st 6/4 ;) 3.20 CHESTER Empress Jain 1st 13/8 ;) 3.45 NEWTON ABBOT Cannon Fire 1st 7/4 ;) 4.00 CHESTER Mobaasher 2nd 2/1 4.35 CHESTER Peter Island nowhere we wait for wetherby then..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rafa Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Stage gift takes it comfortably. Great call FF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Fellas - some stats based on the results up to yesterday (the main 3 bets only, that is): 1 Strike Rate over all these races is a very satisfactory 50% (32 wins/64 bets) 2 Level stakes profit on these 64 bets is about 40 points, which gives a Return on Investment (ROI) of about 62.5%. The staking system we're using has been even more profitable! :clap 3 15 of the 32 losers were Placed. So if they don't win, they are often not far off it! 4 Average odds of all the selections was 3.51 (about 5/2). However, this may be slightly misleading, as there have been a few at high odds and quite a lot at short odds. Nevertheless, we can derive the average odds of the winners as 3.25 or 9/4 (32 wins at these odds, minus the cost of the losers, gives the 40 points profit). That's a healthy number. 5 Longest losing run has been 4 (twice). Longest winning run is also 4. This suggest to me that backing the selections at level stakes would require a bank of maybe 20 to 30 points, which is fine. 6 Even if we take away the highest priced winner (ie in case the results have been biased by one lucky strike at 10/1) you still get 30 points, and the ROI would be 47% which would still be extremely good. 7 18 of the bets have been at SPs of odds-on. Of these, 12 have won. This means those bets have not been particularly profitable. In fact less I make it less than one point net profit from these 18 bets. Suggests this category is really NOT worth backing at level stakes, unless perhaps you could obtain better early prices. 8 11 of the losers were class 4 races, but so were 9 of the winners, so Class of race doesn't seem to make a difference. 9 12 of the losers had more than 8 runners in their races, but so did 9 of the winners, while 9 of the losers had fewer than 6 runners, as did 11 of the winners so number of runners doesn't seem significant. 10 Type of race? 19 of the losers were in handicaps, but so were 21 of the winners, so handicaps don't seem to be a problem for the system. Like wise flat or jumps don't seem to make a difference. So apart from perhaps avoiding the races with short price favs, I can't find any way to filter the races that might increase the profitability, or cut down the work-load of analysis for me, I'm afraid. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the tufty fan club Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Fantastic bit of analysis FF. Gives novices like me a bit more insight into how the whole thing is coming along. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Yes, great work mate :notworthy Appreciated of course ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... No problem guys. The only other idea I have is to restrict the system even further to class 3 and above. Today, for example, would have given; Stage Gift (Nap) 1st 6/4 Empress Jain (Next Best) 1st 13/8 Judd Street (Top Rated) 2nd 4/1 Now I could run class 3 and above, alongside the current class 4 and above, and see how the two compare? There would obviously be days with less or even no selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Personally, I think this system is working perfectly the way it is. If it ain't broke an all dat jazz... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Yeah you're probably right. Having checked back, overall the % of winners isn't that much different but the overall return would have been lower because of less selections, meaning less doubles, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... cheers for all that info m8, its much appreciated. ive been following this since you started it and i think you should keep things how they are because its not like we're losing!!! WERE 493 POINTS PROFIT IN 23 DAYS!!!! just think what the profit will be like in 2 months time hopefully it takes us over the 1000 points mark!!! this is your "Trialling something...." and you do what you think is best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... You know something? I think we'll trial this for ONE WHOLE YEAR. That way we can see if there are any really poor spells. If there aren't any blatently poor months, then we'll look at increasing the stakes progressively as we reach certain profit levels. That's the plan, anyway - sounds good in theory! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... If it carries on as well as it has - and as good as your footie method - the stakes will get huge :loon This is a great system you've developed FF - all being equal the only problem I can think of is if the going gets heavy - but even then it's the same for all. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... I think we'll trial this for ONE WHOLE YEAR. :spank :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... :spank :dudeWith money, of course. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... With monopoly money' date= of course. :ok :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Quote: Originally Posted by FleetFanatic With monopoly money, of course. :ok :ok I try to avoid Scottish notes. :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... If its finding winners at this time of the year, can not see why it should not perform as well or even better as the season progresses. your review of all the stats seems to show it does not make a differance what type of race it selects. Also if it's working and showing a good return why change anything as you seem to be on a sure fire winner.Their may be the odd time it shows bad results but thats racing, but your % and roi are very good and if it continues in the same vain everybody who follows your picks will have a few quid in their wallets. THE % MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Cheers % man - interesting what you said about the spot as well.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Get in at 4/1 Rookery Lad! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a1ehouse Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Woohoo - Watched the e-race through Betting Assistant from the Betfair Prices and Rookery took that with some ease!! Great pick FF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Oops - I copied and pasted that Newton Abbot one wrong. Empress Jain IS NOT entered for Newton Abbot. THURSDAY 11th May: Current +/-: +493.39pts 3.00 YARMOUTH Stage Gift 1st 6/4 :clap 4.10 YARMOUTH Tawaassol 2nd :$ bloody 20/1 shot won 7.05 WETHERBY Rookery Lad 1st 4/1 :clap 1 x 1pt treble, 3 x 3pts doubles, 3 x 5pts singles. 25pts staked. Other races rated: 1.50 CHESTER Maraahel 1st 4/11 ;) 2.20 CHESTER Judd Street 2nd 4/1 2.50 CHESTER Papal Bull 1st 6/4 ;) 3.20 CHESTER Empress Jain 1st 13/8 ;) 3.45 NEWTON ABBOT Cannon Fire 1st 7/4 ;) 4.00 CHESTER Mobaasher 2nd 2/1 4.35 CHESTER Peter Island nowhere75pts returned :ok Current +/-: +543.39pts :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 11, 2006 Author Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... FRIDAY 12th May: early start for work tomorrow and won't be home until 3pm ish. Unlike today, I have the correct date for tomorrow (corrected the others to the 11th now) Current +/-: +543.39pts 2.50 CHESTER Mubtaker 4.20 LINGFIELD Peopleton Brook 8.15 HAMILTON Dispol Veleta 1 x 1pt treble, 3 x 3pts doubles, 3 x 5pts singles. 25pts staked. Other races rated: 1.50 CHESTER Easy Air 2.20 CHESTER Ivy Creek 3.20 CHESTER Dabber's Ridge 4.35 CHESTER Jack Of Trumps / Stretton 7.00 WINCANTON Party Games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Hi FF, Thanks for all the hard work your putting in to this - don't want to put a dampner on the selections but 2.50 CHESTER Mubtaker is 2/5 on - are we going with this (coz of earlier comments) or is there another selection ? :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the tufty fan club Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... decided to put £5 stake on instead on £2.50 today! :nana :nana I'm off to the high roller poker tables now........ :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clipper101 Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... What can I say except :drums :nana:clap :rollin :cow :loon :ok :beer :cheers :dude :lol , 75pts return is fabulous. Keep up the excellent work o great one :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy :notworthy ...I do not thnk my local bookie will be getting much :zzz tonight. But hey as long as he's handing me back some cash then all I can say is :moon it's about time too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidn Posted May 11, 2006 Share Posted May 11, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... hi well what can I say. but well done. whats your view should I take early prices or leave to sp. thank you.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 12, 2006 Author Share Posted May 12, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Well..... normally the prices always seem to be better at sp, more often than not. However, yesterday I got 2/1 and 9/2 on the winners which I ripped out of the bookmakers hand. The selections & results are recorded to sp, anything else is down to the individual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 12, 2006 Author Share Posted May 12, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Hi FF, Thanks for all the hard work your putting in to this - don't want to put a dampner on the selections but 2.50 CHESTER Mubtaker is 2/5 on - are we going with this (coz of earlier comments) or is there another selection ? :okIt has to stay as they have any other time. The earlier comments were a reference to any thoughts of level stake singles. FRIDAY 12th May: Current +/-: +543.39pts 2.50 CHESTER Mubtaker 4.20 LINGFIELD Peopleton Brook 8.15 HAMILTON Dispol Veleta 1 x 1pt treble, 3 x 3pts doubles, 3 x 5pts singles. 25pts staked. Other races rated: 1.50 CHESTER Easy Air 2.20 CHESTER Ivy Creek 3.20 CHESTER Dabber's Ridge 4.35 CHESTER Jack Of Trumps / Stretton 7.00 WINCANTON Party Games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john_lovell Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Mubtaker was disapointing :( hopefully the other two will come in for us! keep the faith! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted May 12, 2006 Author Share Posted May 12, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... It has to stay as they have any other time. The earlier comments were a reference to any thoughts of level stake singles. FRIDAY 12th May: Current +/-: +543.39pts 2.50 CHESTER Mubtaker :$ 4.20 LINGFIELD Peopleton Brook 1st 5/4 :clap (7/4 early price) 8.15 HAMILTON Dispol Veleta NON-RUNNER 1 x 1pt treble, 3 x 3pts doubles, 3 x 5pts singles. 25pts staked. Other races rated: 1.50 CHESTER Easy Air nowhere 2.20 CHESTER Ivy Creek 2nd 3.20 CHESTER Dabber's Ridge 1st 6/4 ;) 4.35 CHESTER Jack Of Trumps 2nd 7/2 / Stretton 1st 16/1 :loon 7.00 WINCANTON Party Games 3rdJust got in 10 minutes after the first race - about the same time as Mubtaker, it would seem. :@ single, double becoming a single and a single stake refunded means 27.5pts returned Current +/-: +545.89pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2ndplacewin Posted May 12, 2006 Share Posted May 12, 2006 Re: Trialling something..... Have you noticed FF this software, when picking money-on horses they lose and bigger money horses win. Weird If you'd have layed all the money-on horses this system had picked you'd be doing well. Never mind this system is still the best mate and we've got loads of profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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