Mlb 9/4

[Mr Intensity]

Sport	MLB
Event	Washington Nationals (Drese) @ Houston Astros (Pettitte)
Selection	Houston (Pettitte) -1.5
Strength	10/10
Date	09/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.20 (Back)
Reasoning	The Astros blew a big lead against the Nationals last time out but I don't see it happening today against Pettitte. Pettitte was poor in his first outing this season but I expect him to get it together and should start backing up the 2.39 ERA he had last season. In his first season for Washington, Drese had a 3-6 record and a 4.98 ERA. Since a couple of tight games against Florida, the Houston bats have been hot and I think they'll be able to get into him today. The problem is the Houston bullpen which has an ERA of 6.39 from 12.2 innings, but I expect Houston to get off to a good lead then hopefully hang on and cover!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 9/4

Sport	MLB
Event	Minnestoa Twins (Santana) @ Cleveland Indians (Westbrook)
Selection	Under 8
Strength	10/10
Date	09/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.79 (Back)
Reasoning	After a slugfest in the first match of this series the teams slowed down and had a nice 3-0 result. Now with Santana on the mound and the Twins needing a win to get out of there 1-4 slump I can see this being very low scoring. Santana struggled in his first start of the season but I can see him tightening it up for this one (in the past 4 seasons his highest ERA has been 3.07!!). On the other side is Westbrook who looked very decent in his first game of the season giving up 2 runs in 6.1 innings to the White Sox. Some little stats from covers.com that favour the under: Recent Trends | In Depth Minnesota: Under is 26-8-0 in MIN last 34 day games. Under is 20-8-0 in MIN last 28 Sun. games. Under is 8-2-0 in Santana's last 10 Sun. starts. Cleveland: Under is 8-3-1 in CLE last 12 overall. Under is 8-3-1 in CLE last 12 on Grass. Under is 10-4-0 in CLE last 14 day games. Everything points to a pitcher battle and a solid under. Could turn into a trap play but I like it.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 9/4

Sport	MLB
Event	Chicago White Sox (Buehrle) @ Kansas City Royals (Elarton)
Selection	Under 9
Strength	10/10
Date	09/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98 (Back)
Reasoning	White Sox are really struggling at the start of the season and need to start grinding out some results. Buerhle is 12-6 with a 3.40 ERA in his career against Kansas but has struggled in the last few. I think he can get it together today when the team need him and pitch a few scoreless innings. On the other side is Elarton who pitched really well in his first start this season, conceding 2 runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers. But it's his record against WS that I'm looking at, for Cleveland he started 7 times against the White Sox, he's gone to at least 6 innings 4 times and had 2 games without conceding a run, including 7.1 awesome innings last September in a very important game. I can see this being a tight one, and should stay under.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 9/4 Hello everyone. It's my first post here, was invited to post here. Been mostly betting US sports like MLB and NBA/College hoops. Also some Finnish footie during the summers. Sorry for a late post, Only about 30-40 minutes to the start of these games, but decided to put them up anyway. Florida Marlins (1-3) @ New York Mets (3-1) Mets -1.5 2.8 (Pinnacle) 6/10 FLA: LHP Dontrelle Willis (0-0, 0.00 ERA) NYM: LHP Tom Glavine (1-0, 1.50 ERA) Here i am fading Dontrelle Willis. He is a phenomenal pitcher on a good day. He had a really shaky outing at World Baseball Classic, but started the season with seemingly good 5 inning outing, with no runs allowed. He walked 3 and struckout only 3. His strike out capability doesn't look yet anything like it was in the beginning of last season and Houston bats were really cold in first 2 games again Florida, when Astros managed only 3 runs in 2 games. For Mets we have a vetaran pitcher Glavine on mound. He is a solid 2nd starter for them and again a good season is expected from him. He started well against the Nationals posting 1.50 ERA in a 3-2 win against the Nationals. With a good pitching matchup, the biggest factor for taking the bet is the Mets batting lineup. They started the season quite slow, but has scored 19 runs combined in last 2 games. Mets is an improved team from last season and is expected to compete for the NL title this season. Florida is in a rebuilding mode, tossing most of their lineup in favor of young prospects and cutting down their expenses. Odds opened at around 2.7 runline and has gone up a little. Seems like Willis is getting a lot of support from bettors, but i doubt he can shut the hot Mets bats down. Minnesota Twins (1-4) @ Cleveland Indians (4-1) Indians 2.05 (Pinnacle) 4/10 Indians -1.5 alt. runline 3.2 (Pinnacle) 2/10 CLE: RHP Jake Westbrook (1-0, 2.84 ERA) MIN: LHP Johan Santana (0-1, 6.35 ERA) Again fading an excellent pitcher as i see a lot of value here. Santana, arguably the best pitcher in MLB didn't start very sharp in his season opener at Toronto. He allowed 10 hits while only striking out three in his 98-pitch outing. He said he was bothered by the cold weather and it won't be any warmer at the Jacobs field tonight, actually a bit colder weather is forecasted. Santana has not fared nearly as well in april and in cold weather than later in the season. But still relatively very good as he is not your typical average pitcher. Indians have won 4 games in a row, 2 at Chicago against the Sox and two against Minnesota at home. Now they are going for a sweep and is starting Jake Westbrook who was solid in his last outing at Chigaco. He is well capable of keeping run count of Minnesota down. Batting matchup is clearly in Indians favor. Quite many Indians players has started the season really well on the plate. Travis Hafner will try to extend his hot streak. He has reached base on last 10 at bats and hit 3 homeruns agains the Twins in previous two matches. Despite J. Santana pitching for the Twins, there is value on over 2.0 odds for the home side. Good Luck to all!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 9/4

Sport	MLB
Event	Detroit Tigers (Rogers) @ Texas Rangers (Padilla)
Selection	Under 10
Strength	10/10
Date	09/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.93 (Back)
Reasoning	The Tigers look to remain perfect in this game and send Rogers to the mound but instead of backing them I prefer to look at the under at a similar price. Let's face it, Kenny Rogers knows how to pitch at this stadium!! In 2 stints for the Rangers he;s won more games than anyone else in this stadium, and how pitching for the Tigers I think he'll do very well. In his first outing this season he pitched 6 innings and gave up just 1 run against Kansas and looked pretty sharp. He's played twice in this stadium against Texas, and both times lasted 7 innings and gave away 3 and 4 runs which is good enough for me here. Padilla is also at a new club, and in his first start for Texas pitched 6 innings giving up 1 run against the big Red Sox offense. He looked very good in that game, especially mixing up the pace of his fast ball was very good. He's started once against Detroit (for Phili) and gave up 1 run in 7 innings. 2 of the 3 games in this series so far have gone under, and with the quality of pitching on display I can definately see it staying under.

[GB80]

Re: Mlb 9/4 St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs - Over 9.5 Runs @ 19/20 (Sportingodds) St Louis have Sidney Ponson pitching for them, who had a poor 2005. His back end of 2004 saved that from being a disaster too. The Cubs have Sean Marshall, who is making his Major League debut. Smells very overish to me.

[davidmphill]

Re: Mlb 9/4 :welcome to the PL juuso. Great first post and hope to see plenty more quality like that.:ok

[Carl]

Re: Mlb 9/4 :welcome to PL Juuso:clap great first post mate hope you stick around:ok

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 9/4

:welcome to the PL juuso. Great first post and hope to see plenty more quality like that.:ok

Thank you davimphill. Got a bit unlucky with the Indians -1.5 as the 2nd run of Twins was scored with 2 outs in 9th inning. Didn't get off to the greatest start here, but still measly 2 unit loss and It will surely be better in the long run.

[Juuso]

Re: Mlb 9/4 A little nightcap: St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs Cubs 2.18 (Pinnacle) 5 units STL: RHP Sidney Ponson (7-11, 6.21 ERA in 2005) CHC: LHP Sean Marshall (4-4, 2.74 ERA at Class A Daytona; 0-1, 2.52) I may be taking a small gamble here for backing a pitcher making his debut in the majors. Sean Marshall was simply amazing in spring training, throwing a variety of good pitches with great control and won the 4th starter spot in the Cubs lineup. He is facing his biggest challenge of his baseball career so far tonight. For the Cards we have Sidney Ponson starting, who has been pretty awful since his career year 2003. He has had occasional elbow and shoulder woes since and some trouble with the law (drinking and driving, fighting). He had pretty bad spring training also He has expressed preference for warmer conditions, so the weather may not be ideal for the Aruba native. Cubs has been strong in the series so far and if Marshall can have a half-decent outing i think Cubs have a great chance for a sweep here. Bats has been hot as hell and Ponson might get pounded.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: Mlb 9/4 4-0 for the day and I move into profit for the season:ok

[davidmphill]

Re: Mlb 9/4

Thank you davimphill. Got a bit unlucky with the Indians -1.5 as the 2nd run of Twins was scored with 2 outs in 9th inning. Didn't get off to the greatest start here' date=' but still measly 2 unit loss and It will surely be better in the long run.[/quote']You can only improve from there. If it had been a winner then the pressure for you to repeat would be huge!!:ok

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 9/4 Nice writeups and welcome aboard Juuso.

[StevieFlack]

Re: Mlb 9/4 tonights St ouis cubs game is begging for the over 9.5. Big Sid i love the booze ponson vs Mr never pitched over double a- let aone the cardinals. Lets see some sloppy pitching pay the price- 100 points 19/20 current bacnk 1477 +477

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Mlb 9/4 I was tempted by the overs for your reasoning but was put off by not the most scientific reasoning. If I remember correctly, Ch5 Sun night games have a knack of being pitcher duels. Not the best reason for not bacing it but at the moment its enough for me. Good luck with itanyway.