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Formula 1:Australian GP


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A bit early,ganted,but can't wait for next GP! Mr Intensity,your early hunches for this,would be welcome.Or anyone's,obviously.I got a gut feeling for Kimi(3/1 with Betfred) to win race.Sure he'll be well up for this.Unlucky in last race,and nowt too wrong with car & if he can start in first couple of rows,then can win this.Roll on Friday!! :tongue2

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP Hi Bobby, Not too sure at the minute. Think Renault could become a little overrated. Will McLaren be able to put a solid weekend together? If so then Kimi should be right there but there's no way I'd back him before qualifying. Ferrari always go well at Melbourne and I expect them to be right back on the pace. Slight concern about engines (obviously), as it will be second weekend for both - but, I think Schumacher was running really easy in Malaysia which would account for his very average pace and Massa beating him. One thing I do think will be interesting is Toyota to finish in the points. In Bahrain they couldn't get any temperature into the tyres which is why they were really slow. But in Malaysia it was much better and Ralf showed some very decent pace in the race. I'd expect them to improve again here, but I think it's another one to wait until after qualifying. Hope this helps mate:ok

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

Hi Bobby, Not too sure at the minute. Think Renault could become a little overrated. Will McLaren be able to put a solid weekend together? If so then Kimi should be right there but there's no way I'd back him before qualifying. Ferrari always go well at Melbourne and I expect them to be right back on the pace. Slight concern about engines (obviously), as it will be second weekend for both - but, I think Schumacher was running really easy in Malaysia which would account for his very average pace and Massa beating him. One thing I do think will be interesting is Toyota to finish in the points. In Bahrain they couldn't get any temperature into the tyres which is why they were really slow. But in Malaysia it was much better and Ralf showed some very decent pace in the race. I'd expect them to improve again here, but I think it's another one to wait until after qualifying. Hope this helps mate:ok
Thanks for speedy reply,Mr I.Yeah,reckon you could be onto something there,with Toyota(pts finish).How do you think they'll fare in qualifying? My main problem,generally,is holding out til after qualifying to have my f1 punt(s),but in most cases find it a wise thing!;)
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

Thanks for speedy reply,Mr I.Yeah,reckon you could be onto something there,with Toyota(pts finish).How do you think they'll fare in qualifying? My main problem,generally,is holding out til after qualifying to have my f1 punt(s),but in most cases find it a wise thing!;)
Yeah I know what you mean:lol :lol I think in terms of pace they'll still be behind Renault/McLaren/Ferrari/Williams/Honda but I think they'll be better than BMW/Red Bull and the rest. So that would put them 11th-12th ish. Assume a couple of problems with the guys ahead and they could sneak into the top 10. Hopefully 11th/12th to get optimum fuel strategy but if I had to predict I'll say one inside the top 10 and one just outside. Williams will be interesting - couple of fresh engines and I fancy they'll be a match for Honda. Could be a decent bet for a podium if qualifying goes well (or a couple of big guns change engines). I know at the weekend I'll be tempted to bet on them, but fear they'll still be a bit overrated:$.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

Yeah I know what you mean:lol :lol I think in terms of pace they'll still be behind Renault/McLaren/Ferrari/Williams/Honda but I think they'll be better than BMW/Red Bull and the rest. So that would put them 11th-12th ish. Assume a couple of problems with the guys ahead and they could sneak into the top 10. Hopefully 11th/12th to get optimum fuel strategy but if I had to predict I'll say one inside the top 10 and one just outside. Williams will be interesting - couple of fresh engines and I fancy they'll be a match for Honda. Could be a decent bet for a podium if qualifying goes well (or a couple of big guns change engines). I know at the weekend I'll be tempted to bet on them, but fear they'll still be a bit overrated:$.
Doubt odds would change an awful lot in that case,so worth waiting til grid positions known,probably.As for Williams,i may have a small interest in 'em,in qualifying.Sore subject,as i did in Malaysian GP,but wrong guy.Did Webber,not Rosberg...:wall
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

A bit early' date='ganted,but can't wait for next GP! Mr Intensity,your early hunches for this,would be welcome.Or anyone's,obviously.I got a gut feeling for Kimi(3/1 with Betfred) to win race.Sure he'll be well up for this.Unlucky in last race,and nowt too wrong with car & if he can start in first couple of rows,then can win this.Roll on Friday!! :tongue2[/quote'] Speaking as both a fan and a punter, I wouldn't normally touch McLaren with a bargepole at the start of the season, really. :tongue2 In recent times, they've often been plagued by either reliability issues or just the car not being quick enough. For one reason or another, they've never looked competitive at the start of any season since they last won the drivers' title back in '99 regardless of how impressive they might have been in the back end of the previous season.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

Hope you DIDN'T hold on,mate! Those Betfair and Sporting Odds best prices have been nibbled at.You responsible? :lol I like that too,but if you don't get on early,then in a daft way you would then need Williams to do badly in qualifying,perhaps,to get bigger odds.Then,you may lose interest,etc :lol :lol.IMO,i think at least 1 of them(Webber for me),will be right up there,so may have a bet on him in qualifying(ew).Are you still keen on Toyota(pts)? Trulli looks ok at 3/1(SO).
Sporting Odds prices are still there, might have a go later tonight, still can't decide:$ :$ Yeah that looks pretty good on Trulli, think I'll be having a go on both Toyotas:tongue2
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionWEBBER to get on the podium
Strength5/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceSportingOdds @ 7.00 (Back)
ReasoningWe've all seen the speed of this new Williams so far this year and I think they can be very competitive in Australia. They both exploded in the last race but a modification has been made to the engine which should have fixed the problem. A couple of fresh Cosworth engines should be great and will give them an edge on guys like Fisichella, Schumi and Massa who are on the second race of there engines. That is a big concern for the Ferraris IMO especially after the problems they have had. The podium should be contested between about 6 drivers and I think this price is great on Webber. Note, I'm going for Webber, but not Rosberg. Rosberg should be strong and is a decent price at 8.00, but I think at home and with a lot of experience at this track Webber should be able to overshadow him this weekend. Will probably be looking at some action on Rosberg depending on how qualifying goes, but not right now.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionTRULLI to finish in the points
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceSportingOdds @ 4.00 (Back)
ReasoningThe analysis is the same, basically backing both Toyotas to finish in the points. Toyota were awful in the first race, really off the pace, and they put that down to not getting any heat into the tyres (just switched from Michelin to Bridgestone). Then in Malaysia they were better, showing decent pace in qualifying before Ralf blew up then Rlaf coming through the field and getting some points. Importantly I feel the second half of that race his times were very competitive and make me think they can improve again in Australia. They've done some testing between the races and Gazza says that they've solved the problem, which is encouraging. The concern here is that the conditions in Australia are likely to be cooler, so they could have the same problem, however, Bridgestone (well, Ferrari really) have always been strong in Australia so I'm hopeful that the tyre will be alright. I expect a few on the top cars - Ferraris second race on the dodgy engine, Barrichello still struggling etc. I think Toyota can be quicker than BMW and get around 10th-11th on the grid and have a decent chance of some points.
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionR SCHUMACHER to finish in the points
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceSportingOdds @ 3.50 (Back)
ReasoningThe analysis is the same, basically backing both Toyotas to finish in the points. Toyota were awful in the first race, really off the pace, and they put that down to not getting any heat into the tyres (just switched from Michelin to Bridgestone). Then in Malaysia they were better, showing decent pace in qualifying before Ralf blew up then Rlaf coming through the field and getting some points. Importantly I feel the second half of that race his times were very competitive and make me think they can improve again in Australia. They've done some testing between the races and Gazza says that they've solved the problem, which is encouraging. The concern here is that the conditions in Australia are likely to be cooler, so they could have the same problem, however, Bridgestone (well, Ferrari really) have always been strong in Australia so I'm hopeful that the tyre will be alright. I expect a few on the top cars - Ferraris second race on the dodgy engine, Barrichello still struggling etc. I think Toyota can be quicker than BMW and get around 10th-11th on the grid and have a decent chance of some points.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP I'm really tempted to get some action on the McLarens, but just can't bring myself to do it. I think they will shock people will there pace this weekend. In Malaysia they had to make extra holes in the bodywork to help cooling the engine, which really tampered the aerodynamics. Also Montoya messed up his tyres in the first stint so wasn't able to show the cars full potential. At this point, with fresh updated Merc engines, I think they could set the pace. But I just can't, too many things to go wrong:$ .

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP I agree with Mr I regarding Webber for a podium, he is in his home race and that should spur him on, the Williams has been quick so far this season and I also seem to remember Webber scoring points here in a Minardi (I think it was his first ever GP, when only 6 places scored points)

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

I agree with Mr I regarding Webber for a podium, he is in his home race and that should spur him on, the Williams has been quick so far this season and I also seem to remember Webber scoring points here in a Minardi (I think it was his first ever GP, when only 6 places scored points)
Exactly right mate he finished 5th in a crazy race where Alex Young finished 7th in the other Minardi - nearly had both in the points:eek. Villeneuve has taken an engine change and will drop 10 places - so that's one of the BMWs out of the way for my Toyotas:hope
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP Webber is now best priced 7.50 with WillHill to get on the podium - not quite sure why they've moved him out so much, nowhere else has:unsure. Both Toyotas are the same price as before practice. Qualifying looks interesting, Button and the Williams' look decent prices for some E/W action, but I'll decide later.

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP A fairly satisfying qualifying session from my boys. As anticipated the Toyotas have found some pace and were solidly in the top 10. A shame Trulli couldn't run in the final session but starting 6th and 9th is a bit better than I expected and I'm very happy with the prices I got on them to finish in the points. Webber was a bit of a disappointment, they really seemed to mess up the final session after starting him on inters:@ :@. But 7th isn't the end of the world, if there is a accident or lack of relaibility he still has an outside chance of a podium:hope. Again it's a very interesting grid, with some big guns starting near the back. Should be a great battle at the front between Button, the Renaults and the McLarens. Haven't decided who I fancy yet, but will be back later this afternoon.

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP After watching the McLarens in qualifying, I like the look of Montoya to beat Button @ 2.75 (W.Hills). Button may have pole but itll be a first if he's still holding that position even after the 1st lap. Montoya was flying in qualifyling and McLaren seem to have their race tactics pretty sorted so far. Not saying Button wont finish ahead,just feel the price is too big.

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP W.Hills go 2/1 for Massa and a points finish. This is much bigger than the price offered by anyone else. Massa semmed to be going ok in qualifying until his crash meant him dropping out. He may be down the grid but he started from 21st in Malaysia to finish 5th overall. Slight concern is the Ferrari engines are on their second weekend but I think at the price its worth a go. Maybe sticking all my eggs in one basket but running with the above theme, Montoya to finish on the podium @ 3.75 (BlueSquare)seems a bargin. Im not usually a huge fan of JP so its not personal bias, just believe he's looked good this weekend and stands a real chance. The first 4 on the grid are all odds on to finish on the podium and then theres the huge gap to Montoya. JP was only 0.7 secs behind Button in the end though and 0.3 secs behind 2nd, so its not like he was a distant 5th. Again, one I feel the price is too big.

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

After watching the McLarens in qualifying, I like the look of Montoya to beat Button @ 2.75 (W.Hills). Button may have pole but itll be a first if he's still holding that position even after the 1st lap. Montoya was flying in qualifyling and McLaren seem to have their race tactics pretty sorted so far. Not saying Button wont finish ahead,just feel the price is too big.
I like it mate. Looking for some action on the McLarens for the race and this could be the best opportunity. Button seemed a little shocked with getting pole and I think he'll be shocked at how much fuel the guys behind him are carrying. Montoya looked very happy as we could see him struggling to get the car slowed down in the final sector when he looked like nicking pole - to me that says he's very heavy (and quick!). He also messed up his new tyres when spinning early in the final session and he would have been quicker if that hadn't happened. I'll almost certainly be taking this one:ok
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionALONSO to win
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceCoral @ 2.87 (Back)
ReasoningRight, so far this season I managed to pick the 1-2 in Bahrain and the winner in Malaysia, so I'll try to keep that run going in Australia..... My selection to win is Alonso. Starting 3rd but caught some traffic in his best lap (ended up a tenth behind Fisi). At the start I expect both Renaults to have a go at Button, not sure if they'll both get him. Alonso in particular has been electric off the start and I expect him to be in a great position. Out of the two Renaults I have to go for Alonso. Not sure about Fisichella putting together back-to-back flawless weekends, and with his engine being on its second weekend, I think Alonso will have an advantage, perhpas not at the start, but certainly towards the second pit stop and the end of the race. I expect the McLarens to come into the race, but Renault still look to be even with them on pace, and whilst Fisichella may crack, I think it'll be very tough for them to pass Alonso. Also the McLarens could end up stuck behind Button in the first stint a bit, allowing the Renaults to gain a gap (not talking about a lot, as Button will still be quick, but perhaps 5 seconds which could be crucial).
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionHEIDFELD to finish in the points
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 2.50 (Back)
ReasoningHeidfeld is in a decent position in 8th on the grid. His final session was a little dodgy as he didn't want to use any new tyres so I think they'll have gone for a pretty conservative strategy knowing they would struggle for pace anyway - this is backed up by him being well off the pace of Ralf and Webber whom he should have been up with. So I think that will help him be pretty strong in the race. The BMW has surprised me a lot this season and again this weekend has shown some very good pace - we can see he has good outright pace from the practice sessions and finshing a very strong 6th and 3rd in the first two qualifying sessions. The worry is a few big names behind him - Trulli, Schumi, Rosberg, Massa, Barrichello. Well, of them, I think the he'll be able to hold off Trulli who isn't the best racer (although I hope Trulli will be able to sneak a point too). Barrichello still looks to have a lot of problems with the car and I don't expect him to figure too much. Rosberg should be pretty strong and come through, but I don't think he'll show the pace he had in Bahrain and he has stated he hasn't learn't this track well enough and that could be significant. Finally I'm willing to oppose the Ferraris, as they both showed a distinct lack of pace in qualifying, don't see too much changing for the race.
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionMONTOYA v Button
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 2.75 (Back)
ReasoningLooking for some action on the McLarens for the race and this could be the best opportunity. Button seemed a little shocked with getting pole and I think he'll be shocked at how much fuel the guys behind him are carrying. Montoya looked very happy as we could see him struggling to get the car slowed down in the final sector when he looked like nicking pole - to me that says he's very heavy (and quick!). He also messed up his new tyres when spinning early in the final session and he would have been quicker if that hadn't happened. At the start I fully expect one or both of the Renaults to pass Button. This will leave him just in front of the McLarens and that will give him a problem. I can see them both pretty close to matching him for pace then running a lot longer in the first stint. Montoya should be able to get out of the first pit stop ahead or at least right behind then be able to have another go later on. Surprising price I feel, shouldn't be more than 2.20.
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionWEBBER v Rosberg
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 1.66 (Back)
ReasoningThis is a bit of a strange one. Rosberg has been struggling with the track all weekend and didn't show any great pace in qualifying. Webber is at home and should be well pumped up for this and has had some good results here in the past. Both in the same car; Webber starting 7th and Rosberg 14th, surely Webber should be a stronger favourite. The only thing in Rosbergs favour is that he can run a more optimum strategy, and that should help him move up, but I can't see him beating Webber unless Webber has problems.
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Austrlaian Grand Prix
SelectionWEBBER v M Schumacher
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 2.10 (Back)
ReasoningFerrari have been struggling for pace most of the weekend, and especially in qualifying. Can't see them suddenly finding a huge amount in the race and should reamin at the bottom end of the top 10. Webber starting a few places ahead of Schumacher and I think he's on a quite conservative strategy, I think he'll be pretty strong in the race. Both on Bridgestone tyres, so if they struggle for tyre temperature, then they'll both be struggling. I think Webber is definately being under-rated for this race after an average final qualifying session, but they made a bit of a mess of it putting him on inters at the beginning then he had problems with traffic, and I think he will be able to show some real pace come Sunday.
SportMotorsport
EventFormula 1 Australian Grand Prix
SelectionROSBERG to finish in the points
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 2.75 (Back)
ReasoningDon't really fancy this one too much but have to take it purely on price. All of the other bookies go between 1.90 and 2.20 with most going 2.00. Anyone backing him at even money is a bit mental I feel, but at 2.75 he should be looked at. Probably 40% chance is fair, so with the odds impying 36.36% it's worth a go. So for some justification; well, we've seen how quick the guy is this season. He's struggling around this track a little, but should still have made it into the final session. He was really caught out by some traffic and rain at the end of the second session otherwise would probably have made it. I think he's in a decent situation on the grid, starting 14th but the 3 guys ahead of him are Klien, Liuzzi and Coulthard. We've seen Rosbergs overtaking ability and I think he'll be able to take these 3 guys pretty easily. That should put him around 11th place and behind Schumacher and from there he has a decent chance, especially if the front runners have problems.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

W.Hills go 2/1 for Massa and a points finish. This is much bigger than the price offered by anyone else. Massa semmed to be going ok in qualifying until his crash meant him dropping out. He may be down the grid but he started from 21st in Malaysia to finish 5th overall. Slight concern is the Ferrari engines are on their second weekend but I think at the price its worth a go.
Totally agree with that mate, I have already had a wee punt and am considering a bit more. 2/1 seems crazy to me
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

Good shouts on the Toyota's, Mr I. May be best to lay a little off to gurantee profit. William Hill are out of line on a few of the points finishes. I expect to be able to slightly arb Massa & Rosberg.
Yeah mate WillHill are high on a few. By adding Heidfeld and Rosberg to finish in the points I'm happy to leave it without arbing. Any 2 in the points will show a very good profit, more than that and it's happy days:D. Good luck anyone taking Massa. Don't fancy Ferrari in the race as you can see from my bets, will be a definate struggle for them with the engines, especially after Massas charge through the field with heavy fuel in the last race. And he might chuck it in the wall:tongue2. Watch it go and rain and mess everything up:( :(. Need another sun dance :nana :nana :nana :nana :nana
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

SportMotorsport
EventAUS GP
SelectionWebber points finish
Strength10/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceCentrebet @ 1.75 (Back)
ReasoningThis is Webber's home grand prix so should know the circuit well and the cooler conditions should help his bridgestone tyres. Car problems permitting I can't see webber failing to finish in the top 8.
SportMotorsport
EventAUS F1 GP
SelectionRosberg points finish
Strength8/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 2.75 (Back)
ReasoningRosberg had a flying first race with a fastest lap & 7th place finish after a first lap mishap. I think he would have had a top 6 finish last race if not for an engine blow up. There is a possibility of rain for the race which may well suit his bridgestone tyres. He starts from 14th and I would price him more like 2.25 for a points finish which is around most other bookies have him priced at.
Tip Detail
SportMotorsport
EventAUS GP
SelectionMassa points finish
Strength7/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 3.00 (Back)
ReasoningI am not a great fan of Massa but I think he is a little overpriced here for a points finish. He starts in 15th for this race, but came through from the back of the grid to finish 5th and ahead of m scumacher last time out. If he doesn't spin or have mechanical problems I think he has a fair chance of a top 8 finish.
SportMotorsport
EventAUS GP
SelectionAlonso to win
Strength6/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/PriceExpekt @ 3.25 (Back)
ReasoningHe won the last two races and is favourite to make it a hattrick. He usually stays out a few laps later than teammate fisichella before refuelling which should be to his advantage. He also should have faster pace than pole sitter Button. He will have to watch out for the two mclarens especially at the start. If Alonso gets away well though I can see him picking up his 3rd vitory out of 3 races.
SportMotorsport
EventAUS GP
SelectionMclaren top scoring constructor
Strength3/10
Date02/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price>William Hill @ 3.75 (Back)
ReasoningMclaren are looking a little better for this race, and MOntoya especially looked decent in qualifying and his talking his chances up. Mclaren usually stay out on track longer so this may well help them to overhaul the cars ahead of them on the grid. Also if one renault fails to finish then if both mclarens finish strongly then it could well be good enough.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP Fuel allocations: Following qualifying, the FIA released the number of laps each driver completed in the final qualifying session, and consequently the amount of fuel each driver is allowed to add to his car's fuel tanks before the start of the race: Driver Laps Fuel (kg) Jenson Button 14 laps 41 Giancarlo Fisichella 14 laps 41 Fernando Alonso 15 laps 44 Kimi Raikkonen 14 laps 41 Juan Pablo Montoya 14 laps 41 Ralf Schumacher 14 laps 41 Mark Webber 12 laps 35 Nick Heidfeld 14 laps 41 Jacques Villeneuve 5 laps 15 Jarno Trulli I think that's great. Totally justifies Alonso going mental at Fisi at the beginning of the session and then pushing that little bit more than the rest. He get's an extra lap of fuel and it would be great if that made the difference in the race:D.

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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

That's a great price on Alonso winbet:ok. I'm stuck with 2.87:$. Expekt now showing it as 2.75, guess it didn't last too long:loon :unsure
About 11 minutes by the look of it! In my experience the odds shown on the 'Odds Comparison' site are not always the same when you actually visit the bookie concerned in events like this.
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Re: Formula 1:Australian GP

About 11 minutes by the look of it! In my experience the odds shown on the 'Odds Comparison' site are not always the same when you actually visit the bookie concerned in events like this.
Aye, that was a great price, well above that on Betfair of 3.00 (crap liquidity though). I still think 2.87 is good and I really fancy him to win, especially with an extra lap of juice:tongue2.
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