FleetFanatic Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Selections are chosen by them being either the only horse in the race to have won last time out, or in races where there is more than one, the one that won the least number of days ago. Only odds of 3/1 or higher will be included. With a staking plan of 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 10 / 14 / 19 / 26 / 35 / 47 / 63 / 84 / 112 / 150 A winner on whatever stake we're at and we revert back to 1pt. Reserves (in the case of non-runners) apply in any race with more than one LTO winner. The replacement horse will be the one that ran and won the least number of days ago. Now some will say it's a risky stategy, but we are talking about nags with winning form. If I get 15 losers on the trot then I'll give up. These rules applied from Sunday 29th January - a different staking plan and odds-rule applied prior to this date. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Friday 27th January: 1.30 Fontwell Alfasonic 1.40 Fakenham Gustavo 1.50 Wolverhampton Henry Tun 2.25 Wolverhampton Vancouver Gold 2.45 Fakenham Bayard 2.55 Wolverhampton Bollywood 3.10 Fontwell Dedrunknmunky 3.20 Fakenham Tokala 3.50 Fakenham Walcot Lad 4.00 Wolverhampton Hard To Explain 4.20 Fakenham Cold Turkey 5.30 Wolverhampton Rock Fever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Friday 27th January: 1.30 Fontwell Alfasonic 1pt 1st 9/4 returned 3.25pts :clap 1.40 Fakenham Gustavo 1pt lost 1.50 Wolverhampton Henry Tun non-runner 2.25 Wolverhampton Vancouver Gold 3pts lost 2.45 Fakenham Bayard 6pts 1st 22/1 returned 138pts :clap 2.55 Wolverhampton Bollywood 1pt lost 3.10 Fontwell Dedrunknmunky 3pts lost 3.20 Fakenham Tokala odds-on so no bet (incidently it won 4/9) 3.50 Fakenham Walcot Lad 6pts lost 4.00 Wolverhampton Hard To Explain 10pts lost (just beaten into 2nd) 4.20 Fakenham Cold Turkey odds-on so no bet 5.30 Wolverhampton Rock Fever 15pts lost A very encouraging start! Total Stakes:46pts Total Returns:141.25pts Profit / Loss: +95.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 27, 2006 Author Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Saturday 28th January: 1.20 Southwell Green Tango 21pts 1.45 Chepstow Bob Bob Bobbin 1.50 Southwell Palua 2.05 Lingfield Chief Exec 2.20 Chepstow Bar Gayne 2.25 Southwell Sonevafushi 2.35 Lingfield Silent Storm 2.55 Chepstow Lord Brock 3.10 Lingfield Bravo Maestro 3.30 Chepstow Private Be 3.35 Southwell Go For Bust 4.00 Chepstow Golden Feather 4.05 Southwell Alfie Flits 4.10 Wolverhampton Young Mick 4.20 Lingfield Blue Knight 4.40 Wolverhampton Regency Red 5.10 Wolverhampton Sand Repeal 5.40 Wolverhampton Ragasah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socky1 Posted January 27, 2006 Share Posted January 27, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! A very encouraging start! Total Stakes:46pts Total Returns:141.25pts Profit / Loss: +95.25pts Did you see that race Bayard won Fleet , I backed prize fighter . Couldnt belive the guy with the flag he didnt even put his arm up :wall :wall :wall Well done though fleet with Bayrad:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 28, 2006 Author Share Posted January 28, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Saturday 28th January: 1.20 Southwell Green Tango odds-on so no bet (incidently it won 5/6) 1.45 Chepstow Bob Bob Bobbin odds-on so no bet (incidently it won 2/5) 1.50 Southwell Palua 21pts lost 2.05 Lingfield Chief Exec 28pts 3rd lost 2.20 Chepstow Bar Gayne 36pts 3rd lost 2.25 Southwell Sonevafushi 45pts lost 2.35 Lingfield Silent Storm 55pts lost 2.55 Chepstow Lord Brock 66pts lost 3.10 Lingfield Bravo Maestro 78pts 1st 11/2 returned 507pts :clap 3.30 Chepstow Private Be 1pt 2nd lost 3.35 Southwell Go For Bust 3pts 3rd lost 4.00 Chepstow Golden Feather 6pts 3rd lost 4.05 Southwell Alfie Flits odds-on so no bet (incidently it won 10/11) 4.10 Wolverhampton Young Mick 10pts 1st 11/10 returns 21pts :clap 4.20 Lingfield Blue Knight 1pt lost 4.40 Wolverhampton Regency Red 3pts lost 5.10 Wolverhampton Sand Repeal 6pts 1st 4/1 returned 30pts :clap 5.40 Wolverhampton Ragasah 1pt..... Starting Profit / Loss: +95.25pts Today's Stakes:360pts Today's Returns:558pts New Profit / Loss: +293.25pts Just a thought but with the current staking plan, no odds on is right choice, but I think it might be wise to say nothing below about 3/1? As the stakes go up, an evens winner, for example, would not cover the stakes that have been lost before. Other than that, the the stakes will have to at least double every time to keep evens plus in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Right: have looked at this and played around. The 3/1 or higher seems a good idea to me. With a revised staking plan of 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 / 7 / 10 / 14 / 19 / 26 / 35 / 47 / 63 / 84 / 112 / 150 This staking ratio guarantees an slightly increased profit as it progresses (based on 3/1 returns) - assuming the winners occur, of course. Back testing, the past 6 days profits revise to 513.50pts, of which the last 2 days 210.50pts. Smaller, but more sensible staking ratio, along with less short-priced bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! We start on 293.25pts as shown as the close of Saturday, but now implement the revised methods. Sunday 29th January: 1.20 Southwell Inaminute 1.50 Southwell Augustine 2.40 Hereford Milan Deux Mille 2.50 Southwell Law Maker 3.00 Lingfield Devil's Island 3.10 Hereford Rubberdubber 3.20 Southwell Blue Knight 3.30 Lingfield Moon Emperor 3.40 Hereford Attorney General 3.50 Southwell Macaroni Gold 4.00 Lingfield Moayed 4.20 Southwell Golden Spectrum Under 3/1 then no bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rooster Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Good luck with this FF. Nothing like some high risk staking to add an edge to ones life ;) If the selection process is sound youll make a killing. Rooster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! good luck mate - I've started one with the football this weekend and its a similar case of £50 down - see where it gets me. Falkirk showed a winner straight off so small profit, but if you can get those early wins under your belt in order to get your money back.... Its bloody risky and goes against everything that is stated here, but what the hell eh?! Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Removed Hereford selections seeing as it's abandoned. We start on 293.25pts as shown as the close of Saturday, but now implement the revised methods. Sunday 29th January: 1.20 Southwell Inaminute 10/3 1pt lost (2nd) 1.50 Southwell Augustine 15/8 no bet 2.50 Southwell Law Maker 8/1 2pts lost 3.00 Lingfield Devil's Island 3/1 3pts lost 3.20 Southwell Blue Knight non runner replaced with Graze On 12/1 5pts returned 65pts :clap 3.30 Lingfield Moon Emperor 3/1 1pt lost 3.50 Southwell Macaroni Gold 7/2 2pts lost 4.00 Lingfield Moayed 4/1 3pts lost 4.20 Southwell Golden Spectrum 11/2 5pts lost Under 3/1 then no bet. Starting Profit / Loss: +293.25pts Today's Stakes:22pts Today's Returns:65pts New Profit / Loss: +336.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Good luck with this FF. Nothing like some high risk staking to add an edge to ones life ;) If the selection process is sound youll make a killing. Rooster Its bloody risky and goes against everything that is stated here, but what the hell eh?! Good Luck! It's a kind of 'haven't been able to pick a decent winner myself lately' system. :rollin Sometimes you have to speculate to accumulate and to hell with the consequences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! 3.20 Southwell Blue Knight non runner replaced with Graze On Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Mooooooooo :cow :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! good substitution mate, but I seriously hope you're doing this minimum stakes. It WILL get nasty at some point. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! When I realised Blue Knight was a non-runner, next best winner LTO was Graze On & it was 16's. What's your definition of minimum stakes? Anyway.....my first post said: ''If I get 15 losers on the trot then I'll give up.'' That a maximum of 578pts to lose under the revised staking plan. Privately I'm at 513.50 plus todays, so not long until at least a small profit gets locked in! I'll enjoy it while it lasts. Edit, having check privately, having followed on continously since Monday, I am currently +587.5 pts. Can't lose now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Mind you, wrong LTO winner came in in the 3.30! It could happen again in the 3.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! The smaller the better LOL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Before computers came a long i used to buy the weekly update and always kept the past results pages and used the same idea but on the flat (turf only) and at first i thought it was my way to living in the sun. But like Danny Cash says you should take great care. Without being more selective in the long run it would wipe you out and 10 losers on the run you would be 220pts down. I do think it's got some promise if you did more reasearch and if you looked at www.cdsystems.co.uk there is a similar idea on there thats been tested and shown good profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted January 29, 2006 Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! if you looked at www.cdsystems.co.uk there is a similar idea on there thats been tested and shown good profits. how do cheap cds come into this or am i missing something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 29, 2006 Author Share Posted January 29, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! I wish I knew, I wish I knew..... Monday 30th January: Starting Profit / Loss: +336.25pts Next bet: 7pts 1.40 Wolverhampton Diktalex 2.00 Ludlow Waterloo Son 2.10 Wolverhampton Cookie Cutter 2.40 Wolverhampton Newnham 2.50 Southwell Squantum 3.20 Southwell Nuzzle 4.00 Ludlow Spike Jones 4.10 Wolverhampton Hayyani 4.30 Ludlow Insurgent Under 3/1 then no bet. Just to clarify: Reserves (in the case of non-runners) apply in any race with more than one LTO winner. The replacement horse will be the one that ran and won the least number of days ago. Rules on 1st page have updated to include all alterations made since implementation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! But like Danny Cash says you should take great care. Without being more selective in the long run it would wipe you out and 10 losers on the run you would be 220pts down. So how about 5/1 or higher? It would also mean stakes could be revised to 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 8 / 10 / 12 / 15 / 18 / 22 / 27 / 33 / 40 / 48. A total liabilty of 249pts for a 15 race losing run. That means back testing the past week..... Edited: scrapped the bit that said about adding extra selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgej Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! I think most watching this thread are just waiting for the hammer to drop - but hope you get a fair profit before that happens. I think the cdsystems was supposed to be .uk.com Wish you well with this Fleet. George Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! The way I look at it, there's plenty of people out there who'll stick £50 or more on a very short price and then be gutted when it doesn't finish in the frame. This way is more fun. Edit: having done a back-check, only backing those that were 5/1 or higher leads to +321pts over past 7 days. Although this is lower, the biggest stake so far would have been 22pts, which is also lower. Liabilty over profits - which way to go? I would presume lower liabilty and slower profits is more sensible. I'll stick with the 3/1+ but keep a record of 5/1+ and see which gets thumped first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Hi Fleetfanatic Just been going over some stats from the 1st Jan 2006 which would apply to your system and i hope they may be of some help to you. What i've done is any horse that as run and won in the last 9 days. On the AW their have been 65 bets and 19 wins and if you backed them all including those races where they was more than 1 runner. If you had a 10 pounds win on all these horses you would show a profit of 640 pounds. On the other hand though their would have been 1 losing run of 18 losers and the strange thing about this it was the 1st 18 bets of the year and the back checking you have done as been over the best part of the month Now the jumps have had 36 bets and 9 wins and a losing run of 5 but if you had picked only 5,6,7,and 8yr olds only their would have been 27 bets and still 9 wins and a profit of 10 pounds. These stats do not take into account the SPs but if you had just backed them all level stakes at a tenner the outcome would have been very good. Perhaps if you started your trial at the beginning of the month you might have jacked it in. The trouble with the jumps is the SPs. I do hope this as been of some help to you but do take care. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Interesting..... .....the obvious question is about that 18 losing run. If you removed all those below 3/1, how long a losing run would it have been then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! A level stakes (10pts) comparison for 10/1+, taking all qualifying horses since I started 23rd Jan: 25/01/06 12.50 LINGFIELD BORDER EDGE 12/1 10th -10pts 1.50 LINGFIELD YOUNG MICK 12/1 1st +120pts 3.20 LINGFIELD THOUGHTS OF STARDOM 33/1 2nd -10pts 27/01/06 2.45 FAKENHAM BAYARD 22/1 1st +220pts 3.10 FONTWELL DEDRUNKNMUNKY 18/1 4th -10pts 4.00 WOLVERHAMPTON HARD TO EXPLAIN 12/1 2nd -10pts 5.30 WOLVERHAMPTON ROCK FEVER 16/1 11th -10pts 28/01/06 5.40 WOLVERHAMPTON RAGASAH 10/1 8th -10pts 29/01/06 3.20 SOUTHWELL GRAZE ON 12/1 1st +120pts +400pts profit on just that criteria. I guess I've just talked myself out of stop at a winner, haven't I? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE % MAN Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Well hear we go AW ONLY. This is backing any runner above 3/1, 47bets 15 wins 720 pounds profit to a tenner win. With just a little tweak and only backing 4,5,6,7,and 8yr olds 27 bets 11 wins and 677 pounds profit and as i said if you are a little more selective you have less bets but nearly the same profit. The losing run for the 47/15wins was 11 and did not look at 27/11 but will check. You must still take great care for at some stage it will go tits up and if it goes well for a while be sure to cream of some of the profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! Have you looked further back than Jan 2006 %man? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Stop at a winner..... and start again! 4.30 Ludlow Insurgent Could be my only bet of the day at this rate..... Edit: no sod it, the number one rule of gambling is only bet what you can afford to lose. And privately at nearly 600pts profit I can afford a 15 race loss. We continue until it happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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