Mr Intensity Posted June 12, 2006 Author Share Posted June 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Nothing in Halle today. VERDASCO v Gruel @ 1.33 Stan James 6.06pts DUPUIS v Rusedski @ 3.51 Pinnacle 0.8pts LEE v Vicente @ 1.53 Stan James 3.77pts DANCEVIC v Carlsen @ 2.37 VC 1.46pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 12, 2006 Author Share Posted June 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers VERDASCO v Gruel @ 1.33 Stan James 6.06pts :D WON profit 2pts DUPUIS v Rusedski @ 3.51 Pinnacle 0.8pts :D WON profit 2pts LEE v Vicente @ 1.53 Stan James 3.77pts :@ LOST loss 3.77pts DANCEVIC v Carlsen @ 2.37 VC 1.46pts :D LOST loss 2pts Totalbetsoutlayp/l169293.4455.24Yield18.82% Good start to the grass season:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 12, 2006 Share Posted June 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers lovely stuff Mr I. What happened to Halle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 12, 2006 Author Share Posted June 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers What happened to Halle? Just the order of play mate. The qualifiers start in Halle tomorrow;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 12, 2006 Author Share Posted June 12, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Halle: Bopanna a little too big @ 47.06 against Federer:lol BASTL v Gasquet @ 3.8 Pinnacle 0.71pts CHIUDINELLI v Rochus @ 2.2 Ladbrokes 1.67pts BECKER v Berdych @ 4.00 Betdirect 0.67pts Queens 2nd round: Dancevic too big against Roddick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 13, 2006 Author Share Posted June 13, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers BASTL v Gasquet @ 3.8 Pinnacle 0.71pts :@ LOST loss 0.71pts CHIUDINELLI v Rochus @ 2.2 Ladbrokes 1.67pts :D WON profit 2pts BECKER v Berdych @ 4.00 Betdirect 0.67pts :@ LOST loss 0.67pts Totalbetsoutlayp/l172296.4955.86Yield18.84% :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 13, 2006 Author Share Posted June 13, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Queens 2nd round: VERDASCO v Lee @ 1.83 VC 2.41pts DUPUIS v Gonzalez @ 3.5 Ladbrokes 0.8pts Halle 2nd round: CHIUDINELLI v Vliegen @ 3.0 Betdirect 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 14, 2006 Author Share Posted June 14, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers VERDASCO v Lee @ 1.83 VC 2.41pts :D WON profit 2pts DUPUIS v Gonzalez @ 3.5 Ladbrokes 0.8pts :@ LOST loss 0.8pts CHIUDINELLI v Vliegen @ 3.0 Betdirect 1pt :@ LOST loss 1pt Totalbetsoutlayp/l175300.756.06Yield18.64% The end of another good week:ok. About 3pts profit this week, but the yield has dropped 0.2%:sad :lol :lol See you next week for Nottingham and s-Hertogenbosch:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr I, Just read entire thread from start - AMAZING! - I think you've truly stumbled across something here, quite remarkable - over nearly 6 months and results still as strong as ever - the yield is amazing over this period particularly based on such straightforward criteria. I think it'd be great to analyse all results over past six months and look for further tailoring or tweaking if only to cut out a few of the losses and up the yield and PROFIT further. Please carry on the great work......... I'm off to trawl through the data - will report back on what I can find...... Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Totally agree with you, Al. I've been following Mr I for several months now and I too believe he has hit on something rather special. Logical and understandable and like all brilliant insights apparently simple. Up to the middle of May I put all the results in this thread into a spreadsheet and sent them over to Mr I. Subject to his agreement I'd be very happy to send them over to you. If you are going to do your own analysis is might save you some data inputting. Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 17, 2006 Author Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Up to the middle of May I put all the results in this thread into a spreadsheet and sent them over to Mr I. Subject to his agreement I'd be very happy to send them over to you. If you are going to do your own analysis is might save you some data inputting. Yeah go for it mate, I keep forgetting to update the spreadsheet:$ :$ Mr I, Just read entire thread from start - AMAZING! - I think you've truly stumbled across something here, quite remarkable - over nearly 6 months and results still as strong as ever - the yield is amazing over this period particularly based on such straightforward criteria. I think it'd be great to analyse all results over past six months and look for further tailoring or tweaking if only to cut out a few of the losses and up the yield and PROFIT further. Please carry on the great work......... I'm off to trawl through the data - will report back on what I can find...... Al. Thanks for your interest Al:ok. Looking at the data I think you'll find it's better to include the ones priced above 5.00, results are much better in round 1 than round 2 and that fixed stakes works better than fixed profits. So what I'm putting up here is probably the worst case scenario:lol :lol :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Thanks. Just spent all morning plugging in results into spreadsheet myself - so no worries - interesting first impressions just doing that exercise. Will include all those over 5.00 as well. Sad I know but just love analysis and looking for trends! Have been trying to create my own forecasting models for tennis so will apply all kinds of criteria to Qualifiers and see what comes out - excited by the prospect - I'm sure the wife won't be as impressed though :) . I'll publish all findings on here and/or send through spreadsheet analysis once complete. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Yeah you are right. You get a feeling for it if you actually do the phsyical stuff yourself. FYI I worked on a level stake model as well as Mr I's level profit. I also separated round 1 and 2 and included the biggies too. Tested various cut offs etc. Be fascinating to see if we came to similar conclusions. chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted June 17, 2006 Share Posted June 17, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Regarding moving the odds cap---- Would someone seriously bet on a 60/1 qualifier against the Fed Express? It's just flushing money down the toilet, really. SO was thinking, maybe the revision would push the max odds out to .. I dunno, 10, 12, 15, take your pick? Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Regarding moving the odds cap---- Would someone seriously bet on a 60/1 qualifier against the Fed Express? It's just flushing money down the toilet, really. Mat. I doubt anyone would recommend such a bet, Mat. But back in the real world having analysed Mr I's selections from mid January to mid May with odds of 5 and above it was clear that contrary to initial expectation this was a profitable strategy. (The 23 bets over the period required an outlay of 10 points on Mr I's 2-point fixed profit basis and returned 24.36 i.e. profit of 14.36.) I know how my profits have been since then but I look forward to seeing what Al's more up-to-the minute research comes up with. Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr I / Chris, If either of you have the odds quoted for those selections over 5.00 during 2006 that would really help as I don't have that info to hand and not sure where to get it - I'll be tracking it from next week onwards. Got to say some interesting details coming out from analysis yesterday. Based on first criteria pass through the system for first 25 qualifiers of 2006 during January identified 8 correct and 0 losses (based on 1st round only) v.early days and much analysis to do but there is certainly something there. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers EDIT: have switched on the PM system for both of you so you don't need to post email adresses in public view. Just a reminder that you can attach a file to a post should you wish to do so, just create a new reply and below the page you'll find 'additional options' and in there 'manage attachments' :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 18, 2006 Author Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr I / Chris, If either of you have the odds quoted for those selections over 5.00 during 2006 that would really help as I don't have that info to hand and not sure where to get it - I'll be tracking it from next week onwards. Got to say some interesting details coming out from analysis yesterday. Based on first criteria pass through the system for first 25 qualifiers of 2006 during January identified 8 correct and 0 losses (based on 1st round only) v.early days and much analysis to do but there is certainly something there. Al. No mate I would have to guess:unsure :unsure. If you've got Chris' spreadsheet he's attached the notes I've made in the thread and that includes some of the prices. A lot of them were around 7.00ish I think I remember. Given the results I don't think it matters too much;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Okay no worries. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers thanks for fixing the PM thing, Datapunter. chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Hi Alcayman I'm attaching a spread sheet with the info I have on Mr I's bigger priced selections - the one's he didn't back up to mid May. Hope it makes sense Chrisconv_114.xls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 18, 2006 Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Chris, That's great, thanks. I'll get right on it! Run numbers again for 06 and 49.34% strike rate for all qualifiers in the 1st round - amazing!! :clap :drums over first six months of this year. I'm going to back test once I have applied more conditions to the list over previous 3 years and see if things hold. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 18, 2006 Author Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Qualifiers for Ordina: Ledovskikh Qureshi Sirianni Cilic Great, I've heard of two of them:lol :lol Qualifiers for Nottingham: Udomchoke Kunitsyn Tipsarevic Navarro Pastor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 18, 2006 Author Share Posted June 18, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers No good prices around yet, I'll catch some in the morning:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 19, 2006 Author Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Quereshi too big @ 13 against Ancic. UDOMCHOKE v Srichaphan @ 3.5 Stan James 0.8pts TIPSAREVIC v Bloomfield @ 1.299 Pinnacle 7.49pts KUNITSYN v Simon @ 2.1 Pinnacle 1.82pts SIRIANNI v Benneteau @ 3.45 Pinnacle 0.81pts LEDOVSKIKH v Hernych @ 3.01 Pinnacle 0.99pts Come on Janko:clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Quereshi put up a great fight against Ancic only losing 7-5 in the 3rd. For those of you analysing the data it might be worth noting how often the big priced qualies have taken their opponents to 3 sets with a view to potentially laying the favourite to win in 2 sets rather than backing the qualifier, when the price is above a certain level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Quereshi put up a great fight against Ancic only losing 7-5 in the 3rd. For those of you analysing the data it might be worth noting how often the big priced qualies have taken their opponents to 3 sets with a view to potentially laying the favourite to win in 2 sets rather than backing the qualifier, when the price is above a certain level. Personally since doing my analysis of Mr I's work a month ago I've been straight backing all the big ones but with a much reduced stake. Trading though is a much more sensible idea if you have the time. Do you have any figures on this or is it a hunch that you suggest might be profitably pursued? Maybe Al as some data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-Team Posted June 19, 2006 Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers I don't have any figures or anything. It was something that crossed my mind watching the Ancic match earlier. I'm just thinking out loud really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 19, 2006 Author Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Yeah Quereshi was very close. Played a bloody good match, fair play to him:clap. The other qualifiers weren't too good: UDOMCHOKE v Srichaphan @ 3.5 Stan James 0.8pts :@ LOST loss 0.8pts TIPSAREVIC v Bloomfield @ 1.299 Pinnacle 7.49pts :D WON profit 2pts KUNITSYN v Simon @ 2.1 Pinnacle 1.82pts :@ LOST loss 1.82pts SIRIANNI v Benneteau @ 3.45 Pinnacle 0.81pts :@ LOST loss 0.81pts LEDOVSKIKH v Hernych @ 3.01 Pinnacle 0.99pts :@ LOST loss 0.99pts Totalbetsoutlayp/l180312.6153.64Yield17.16% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 19, 2006 Author Share Posted June 19, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Navarro Pastor too big @ 7.23 against Gasquet. CILIC v Robredo @ 3.75 Stan James 0.73pts Mmm, anyone get the feeling this is going to be a bad week?:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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