alcayman Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Yeah - looks that way unfortunately - difficult to see how Cilic will avoid defeat - Robredo isn't exactly great on grass over past few years but tends to avoid rank outside defeats and Cilic has yet to play on grass professionally - roll on Wimbledon! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Based on second pass through of analysis the following data come out. Essentially the only conditions in the first two runs have been based on ranking and variations on that (65 simulations run). Always trying to ensure I leave as many winners in as possible. Have only focused on 1st round matches and level stakes Number of Bets: 133 Number of Winners: 74 %: 55.64% Total pts staked: 133 Total profit: 55.9 Yield: 42.03% notes: (1) Third Phase of analysis focuses on Form. (2) Will revist those selections removed to try to pick up those 8 winners removed from model without reducing profit or yield. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers This is getting more and more interesting, Al. It appears that we both have come to similar conclusions - although I'm sure you will be able to take it much further than I can. That's what I'm really looking forward to. All I managed to do was analyse Mr I's selections without adding any other criteria. This is what I sent to him up to 17 May based on level stakes: 1ST ROUND (Ex prices over 5) Bets/outlay: 104 p/l: 31.66 yield 30.44% 1ST ROUND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay:118 p/l: 44.66 yield 37.84% 2ND ROUND (Ex big prices) Bets/outlay:46 p/l: 4.46 yield: 9.7 2ND ROUND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay: 55 p/l: 18.42 yield 33.49% COMBINED 1ST AND 2ND (Inc big prices) Bets/outlay: 173 p/l: 63.08 yield 36.46% The equivalent yields for stakes to level profit as Mr I shows them in his thread were: 1ST ROUND (Ex big prices): 21.29%, 1ST ROUND (Inc big prices): 24.99% 2ND ROUND (Ex big prices): 8.95% 2ND ROUND (Inc big prices): 17.09% COMBINED 1ST AND 2ND (Inc big prices): 22.87% Since I did this about four weeks ago I came, not surprisingly, to the conclusion that level stakes were more profitable! However as I have been betting with variable stakes (much less on the big priced ones!) I don't have comparable figures to hand past 17 May. Eager to get your findings and tweakings, Al. Chris (fiddled with the formatting) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Chris, Yes - its certainly makes for further analysis. just run stats for all qualifiers (1st round only) during 2005 - no filtering and found; Bets: 315 Winners: 134 %: 42.54% haven't worked out profit / loss yet - but i think as a starting point anything over 40% strike rate should be okay generally. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Great stuff guys:clap :clap :clap Here's a very nice tennis site, and this page shows the % of qualifiers getting through the first round in the past x years. I've sorted it by %: http://www.tennisform.com/default.asp?tournament=none&action=QS&direction=desc&sort=Percent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Well well well, some nice stats indeed. Chris regarding my earlier comment re: betting against Federer, I was just using it as an example of why we might need a higher ceiling as opposed to no ceiling at all. Keep up the good work lads Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Chris, Yes - its certainly makes for further analysis. just run stats for all qualifiers (1st round only) during 2005 - no filtering and found; Bets: 315 Winners: 134 %: 42.54% haven't worked out profit / loss yet - but i think as a starting point anything over 40% strike rate should be okay generally. Al. Great stuff, Al. Looks very promising from the long term viability pov. Very much hope so anyway! Although the strike rate this year has so far been quite a few points higher than you show for 2005. I wonder how that affects the p/l I wonder? Great you are doing this. Waiting now with bated breath. chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Well well well, some nice stats indeed. Chris regarding my earlier comment re: betting against Federer, I was just using it as an example of why we might need a higher ceiling as opposed to no ceiling at all. Keep up the good work lads Mat. No probs Mat. Quite understood. And, yes, I'm sure we do need some ceiling. Hopefully Al is the man to discover what that might be! chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Interesting stats for 2005 - if you include all qualifiers at average to top prices you only end up 5pts in profit. I've run all through first two ranking conditions and get the following; 2005 Bets: 248 Won: 121 %: 48.79% Profit: 17.13 Yield: 6.91% Notes Clearly down on this year so far but I wasn't using the best price available in every case (generally based on Bet365) so potentially better profit available. Although some encouragement by some results that warrant further investigation.............the analysis continues...........:wall Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Al and Mr I Without pre-empting the results of your further analysis, Al, maybe the truth is that this year the strike rate has for some reason been unusually high (over 55%) and that has kept the yield up. But why? You quoted an s/r of 48.79% for the whole of 2005 and a yield of 6.91%. Can you split your figures to see whether there is, perhaps, a difference between the first part of the year and later? Or maybe the grass game isn't so good despite the thought earlier in the thread that it is likely to be better. Mr I, it is entirely thanks to you and your inspiration that we are even discussing this at all. What was it that prompted you back in January to look at this edge? Did you see something last year or what? good wishes to all chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Just had a quick look at the tennisform page that Mr I referenced before http://www.tennisform.com/default.asp?tournament=none&action=QS&direction=desc&sort=Percent I'm not sufficiently familar with how the tennis tournaments fall over the year but is there anything in the idea that the first half of the year has a preponderance of those in the top half of the list? c Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 20, 2006 Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Chris, Yes - I think you could be right - I'll try and breakout figures by month etc.. and returns for both 06 and 05. Absolutely agree with you though - wouldn't even be bothering with this amount of analysis if it wasn't for Mr I! Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Cilic lost. I'll update the table after the 2nd round, which is real easy, as only one qualified: TIPSAREVIC v Srichaphan @ 3.00 Ladbrokes 1pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 20, 2006 Author Share Posted June 20, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr I, it is entirely thanks to you and your inspiration that we are even discussing this at all. What was it that prompted you back in January to look at this edge? Did you see something last year or what? It was nothing specific, to be honest I'm not sure what it was. Perhaps just following the tournaments and seeing qualifiers tending to come through:unsure. Just had a quick look at the tennisform page that Mr I referenced before http://www.tennisform.com/default.asp?tournament=none&action=...c&sort=Percent I'm not sufficiently familar with how the tennis tournaments fall over the year but is there anything in the idea that the first half of the year has a preponderance of those in the top half of the list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 21, 2006 Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Just had a quick look at the page again. There are 15 tournaments where 50% or greater have got through the first round. Ignore the two with only 1 year of data. That leaves 13. I like to split the year at Wimbledon, and say everything before that is early part of the year and everything after is late part. Of those 13 tournaments 5 occur in the early part and 8 occur in the late part of the year:eek :eek (so long as I remember the calender correctly;)) Just something to think about:loon :loon Oh well Mr I... just an idea. But sadly not borne out by the facts - don't you just hate it when that happens! I'm looking forward to what Al might come up with. chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 21, 2006 Author Share Posted June 21, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers CILIC v Robredo @ 3.75 Stan James 0.73pts :@ LOST loss 0.73pts TIPSAREVIC v Srichaphan @ 3.00 Ladbrokes 1pt :D WON profit 2pts Totalbetsoutlayp/l182314.3454.91Yield17.47% Bad week, but we'll be back for Wimbledon:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted June 22, 2006 Share Posted June 22, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Alcayman was the 2005 P/L previously quoted for fixed stakes or profits? Thanks Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alcayman Posted June 22, 2006 Share Posted June 22, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mat, It was fixed stakes - will run it with profits to see difference though. Al. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr.karl Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr. I, fantastic work on this system. I've gone through the thread and entered the data into a spreadsheet. I've added all the ones you didn't in your system, and if you hadn't stated the odds of the "big selections" I entered 5 for the odds. In total I got 228 bets from 1st round and 2nd round matches(this doesn't agree with other analysis but thats what I got, I checked it three times!) I've used 1pt fixed stakes on all selections, and blind betting gives a profit of 62.9 with a yield at 27.4%. Then to be selective with what bets were placed I used the strike rate. In this case the strike rate for the system was, 44.5%, which is equivalent to about 2.25 in odds. eg you've got value if you get odds over 2.25. I only placed 1pt stakes on selections with odds over this, the results from 165 bets were 57.5 in profit at a yield of 34.8%. Then narrowing the selections even further, I only placed value bets in the first round. I found 106 bets which returned a profit of 41.24 at a yield of 38.9%. The same was done for 2nd round matches, the results found were that a profit of 16.2 was made from 59 bets at a yield of 27.4%. I'm not a keen follower of tennis but when I was inputting the data, more qualifiers seemed to win at clay surfaces rather than other surfaces. This was a general observation and it might be worth looking into, players may find it harder to adjust to clay rather than hard court surfaces for example and therefore the qualifiers have a greater edge. Mr. I what about womens tennis? Have you considered doing the same on that circuit as well, or is there no markets for womens tennis? Mr.I, If you want to look at the data then I could send it you, just pm me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted June 24, 2006 Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Geez all you guys are eager beavers eh Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 24, 2006 Author Share Posted June 24, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr. I what about womens tennis? Have you considered doing the same on that circuit as well, or is there no markets for womens tennis? First of all thanks for looking into it, I'm glad you're interested and some great results you've found:clap :clap . No I haven't looked into womens tennis, basically because I don't follow it too much. Also, the bookies are slow to put up markets involving qualifiers for the men, so I'd imagine they'd be even slower in putting these up. And, the strength in depth of womens tennis isn't as good as the mens, so I'm not sure about the quality of the qualifying tournaments. Mr.I, If you want to look at the data then I could send it you, just pm me. Yeah that would be great, I don't think you can do PM's due to a lack of posts, but my email is in my profile:ok Thanks again everyone for your interest:ok (and for showing my selection criteria to have possibly the lowest possible yield:lol :lol :lol) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matjnewton Posted June 25, 2006 Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr. I the strike this year has been higher than normal hasn't it? Someone was bandying about a figure of 42.5% or something like that. I think under the normal strike rate, your plan will probably come out better. Mat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Mr. I the strike this year has been higher than normal hasn't it? Someone was bandying about a figure of 42.5% or something like that. I think under the normal strike rate, your plan will probably come out better. Mat. Mmm, I'm not actually sure what the strike rate is since I've started using the spreadsheet and not keeping a record of the W/L:$. But when I was recording it I'm sure it wasn't above 50%, I think it was closer to 40%. So I don't really think it's much above the average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 25, 2006 Author Share Posted June 25, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Qualifiers this week: Kim Labadze Karanusic Granollers-Pujol Berrer Dancevic Falla Stadler Peya Pless Goodall Galvani Arthurs Dorsch Kendrick Becker I'll put up prices in the morning:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 26, 2006 Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers I like the look of Wayne Arthurs out of this lot. 2.5 to beat Santoro on the grass looks very nice for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 26, 2006 Author Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers I'm going to put up all the 1st rounds now as with the weather I've got no idea when they'll be played: Labadze plays Peya so no play there. Pless too big @ 11.00 against Blake. Dorsch too big @ 6.00 against Malisse. KIM v Sanguinetti @ 1.83 Blue Sq 2.41pts KARANUSIC v Schuettler @ 1.83 Stan James 2.41pts GRANOLLERS-PUJOL v Pavel @ 3.53 Pinnacle 0.79pts BERRER v Delgado @ 1.66 VC 3.03pts DANCEVIC v Stepanek @ 4.09 Pinnacle 0.65pts FALLA v Davydenko @ 3.00 Bet365 1pt STADLER v Ferrer @ 3.00 Will Hill 1pt GOODALL v van Gemerden @ 1.667 Pinnacle 3pts GALVANI v Waske @ 2.75 Stan James 1.14pts ARTHURS v Santoro @ 2.5 Will Hill 1.33pts KENDRICK v Lu @ 2.15 Pinnacle 1.74pts BECKER v Chela @ 1.72 Ladbrokes 2.78pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris001 Posted June 26, 2006 Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers Goodly list Mr I. Thanks. Here's hoping for the weather.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted June 26, 2006 Share Posted June 26, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers I'm on all 12! :hope :hope :hope :hope Hope I can using the dancing banana later!!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers KIM v Sanguinetti @ 1.83 Blue Sq 2.41pts :@ LOST loss 2.41pts KARANUSIC v Schuettler @ 1.83 Stan James 2.41pts :D WON profit 2pts BERRER v Delgado @ 1.66 VC 3.03pts :@ LOST loss 3.03pts DANCEVIC v Stepanek @ 4.09 Pinnacle 0.65pts :@ LOST loss 0.65pts GALVANI v Waske @ 2.75 Stan James 1.14pts :D WON profit 2pts ARTHURS v Santoro @ 2.5 Will Hill 1.33pts :@ LOST loss 1.33pts KENDRICK v Lu @ 2.15 Pinnacle 1.74pts :D WON profit 2pts BECKER v Chela @ 1.72 Ladbrokes 2.78pts :D WON profit 2pts Totalbetsoutlayp/l190329.8355.49Yield16.82% Small profit today:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted June 27, 2006 Author Share Posted June 27, 2006 Re: Tennis: The value in Qualifiers 2nd round: Kendrick too big against Nadal. KARANUSIC v Ferrero @ 3.6 Pinnacle 0.77pts BECKER v Verdasco @ 3.3 Betfair 0.91pts Can't find a price on Galvani. I'll have a look in the morning (hopefully):unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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