bowles10 Posted November 25, 2005 Share Posted November 25, 2005 The highlight of the Newbury meeting, Gold cup pretenders try to slog their way around Newbury. The players are: Trabolgan has had 11 starts & only finished out of 1st 2 twice when falling once & PU once. Won the R&SA NOvices chase at Cheltenham beating Comply or die 3L. Acts on any ground but must shoulder top weight round here. Negative is that the horse has never carried more than 11-7 & never ran over more than 3 miles. The extra 2 furlongs may be its downfall. Comply or Die had had 13 starts & won 6 of those. Was favourite for the scottish National (4m 1f) but didnt stay, eventually being PU. Has won 1st time out in previous 2 years - goes well fresh & takes 5lb off Trabolgan for a 3L beating at Cheltenham. Has the top Saturday combination - Johnson/Pipe/Murphy, interestingly enough Pipe dropped out 3 runners today which meant Trabolgan carries the welterweight so maybe thats the clue. Cornish Rebel has won 6 of 11 starts & 1st time out last 2 years also. Record at Newbury reads 3 runs / 3 wins so clearly likes the track. Ruby has chosen this from 3 Nicholls horses. With his horses coming back to form, this looks an ideal bet. Is 4lb worse off with Comply or die from the Cheltenham race, therefore needs to show its stamina & course preference to get past that one. of the others, King Harald is a gutsy animal who had a hard race LTO at Cheltenham but was still in lead approaching the last fence & ended up 4th, will improve for that run & will be thereabouts again as long its jumping holds up. Run For Paddy comes from the Mark Pitman stable which has has good success this season, won nicely 1st time out at Huntingdon stealing a race with a great display of jumping. Inca Trail finished in 5th that day but franked the form winning when dropped in class. This is a big price at the mo on Betfair (75.0) & i'll be after place money in the morning. My top three would be : 1. Cornish rebel (10.5 at Betfair - massive price IMO) 2. Comply or die 3. Trabolgan with KIng Harald & Run for Paddy running big races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted November 25, 2005 Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury I'm going to take an each way chance on Distant Thunder. Hopefully it was just a case of something going wrong last time out rather than it not being good enough and if that is the case and the horse has recovered from it which you'd assume it would have if it is entered to run then it comes into the race on a fair mark. Distant Thunder each way at 14/1 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted November 25, 2005 Author Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury I'm going to take an each way chance on Distant Thunder. Hopefully it was just a case of something going wrong last time out rather than it not being good enough and if that is the case and the horse has recovered from it which you'd assume it would have if it is entered to run then it comes into the race on a fair mark. Distant Thunder each way at 14/1 for me. Had a shout for that one Kev, but tried to make a case for it, but still can't see it reaching the top 3. However, it may form part of my bet as i had a phone call earlier about it saying connections really fancied it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted November 25, 2005 Share Posted November 25, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury Had a shout for that one Kev' date=' but tried to make a case for it, but still can't see it reaching the top 3. However, it may form part of my bet as i had a phone call earlier about it saying connections really fancied it.[/quote'] That's encouraging to hear! To be honest, you can make doubts over the top 2 or 3 in the market so I'm looking to take them on and this seems the one to take them on with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 26, 2005 Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury Ballycassidy. Huge price on his best form, wins his share of races and likes Newbury. Negatives: when raised in class to this level he tends to be found wanting. But I'll take an eachway stab with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted November 26, 2005 Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury Don't discount ALL IN THE STARS down at the other end of the weights. The seven-year-old has been backed down from 150/1 to a fraction of those odds in recent days, and there is form in the book to justify such support. ALL IN THE STARS was beaten just a head by Cornish Rebel at Cheltenham and is no less than twenty-five pounds better off for that marginal defeat, which doesn't even take into account the jockey's claim! A winner of three of his chases to date, Paul Keane's raider is admittedly three pounds the wrong side of the handicap before the rider's claim I'll have a bit of all in the stars @25's but I really fancy KANDJAR D'AILLIER and KING HAROLD. Kandjar is just 1 of those horses that I always end up backing everytime I see it and Im not leaving it today. King Harald did well at Cheltenham 2 weeks ago. so many class horses in this tho:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted November 26, 2005 Author Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury a few stats: last 10 years 7 out of 10 winners won on last start which was in same season in every case, other 3 had been placed. iris Bleu, run for paddy, ross comm, st matthew, all in the stars qualify. Only once in 10 has more than 11st being carried to victory. No's 9 to 19 qualify incl, 4 of the above horses (apart from iris bleu) 4 out of 10 fav's have won Oldest winner was 9yo in last 10 years, 3 8yo's, 4 7yo's & 2 6yo's complete the 10 years. St matthew & all in the stars are 7yo's, the other 3 are 9yo's. Every winner had a previous run that season. No 1st time out winners in last 10 years. largest price winner is 16/1 in last 10 years there may be some value if we are looking at: St matthew, All in the stars, Ross comm & Run for Paddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted November 26, 2005 Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury Ballycassidy. Huge price on his best form, wins his share of races and likes Newbury. Negatives: when raised in class to this level he tends to be found wanting. But I'll take an eachway stab with this one. Hmmmm 40/1 and unlikely to win, so I'll add Red Devil Robert to the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted November 26, 2005 Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury By the time I got down to the bookies All in the stars is down to 20/1 £5 e/w:hope 14/1 now:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted November 26, 2005 Author Share Posted November 26, 2005 Re: Saturday - Hennessey Gold cup Newbury My top three would be : 1. Cornish rebel (10.5 at Betfair - massive price IMO) 2. Comply or die 3. Trabolgan with KIng Harald & Run for Paddy running big races. 1st, 2nd & 4th but in the wrong order. Great price on Cornish with it being backed into 11/2 Fav!:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.