Rio over the sticks

[sensibleboy]

Re: Rio over the sticks Like the Celestial Gold bet. Been aimed towards the gold cup this year whereas last season he had a few hard races early on especially winning the Paddy Power and The Hennesy. Just hope he gets a good prep run before March though.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks

Like the Celestial Gold bet. Been aimed towards the gold cup this year whereas last season he had a few hard races early on especially winning the Paddy Power and The Hennesy. Just hope he gets a good prep run before March though.

I'm not too worried about a prep race, I think connections would have liked to run in the Cotswold chase as theres a nice 6 weeks break then to the Gold Cup. About the only suitable race left would be the Aon Chase at Newbury next weekend which leaves 4 weeks in between & they won't want him to have a hard race too close to the big one. The race yesterday did nothing to advertise the chances of the 3 entered at Cheltenham. Ollie Magern looks to have lost his form completly, One Knight will need to jump far better but at least he didn't have a hard race & I still think Royal Auclair isn't good enough. I've added another bet to my ante post portfolio. Ladbrokes World Hurdle. My Way De Solzen 10pts @ 36 Betfair. There are question marks over the older brigade such as Barracuda (past his best?) & Rhinestone Cowboy (not seen since April 04) Inglis Drever is injured but the connections have a good sub in No Refuse but at around 5/1 he's a bit skinny. Ambobo is interesting but has yet to try this trip, I think it runs today at Pau. Connections are wishing there was championship event at 2m 4f for Golden Cross, another yet to try this trip. Asian Maize is another on a long lay off but with some decent form. My Way De Solzen looked to relish the trip in the re-arranged Long Walk Hurdle at Chepstow LTO. Due to run tomorrow in the Cleeve Hurdle at Sandown which should tell us more about his chances at the festival. Would be better with soft ground which he may or more likely will not get in March but they won't let it get too fast. He's a top price 16/1 with a couple of firms but most of the bookies go 12's, the 36.0 at Betfair therefore looks more than a fair price. So far then, Staked 1820pts Returns 2172.55pts Profit/Loss +352.55pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Sandown for me today 12.55 Mighty Man can get a bit worked up before a race & can take a bit of settling as well. First try at 3m but usually stays on well at the end of his races & was given too much to do LTO, skinny price in a good race. No Refuge also steps up to this trip here, 4 from 5 over hurdles but can look like he's making hard work of it. Trainer not making the right sort of noises & I'm never sure with this yard if there going to run well or have a stinker. Attorney General is improving & clearly gets the trip, big jump in class this though but no suprise if he runs well. Doumen sends Millenium Royal over from France & is always respected. All wins on much softer & not so good LTO but has had a break. Brewster has not shown much in two starts this season Patriarch Express has had nearly a year off with an injury but has won FTO last 3 seasons but in much lower grade than this. My Way De Solzen 20pts @ 8/1 V Chandler is the choice. Improving & gets the trip, said to need it softer than today but the trainer thinks he'll handle it ok. looking for a good run here to boost my ante post bet for the festival. 1.30 Town Crier is in the form of his life but this is his toughest test to date & at 11yo is not open to further improvement. Old Flame is over from Ireland but his bare form doesn't look up to this, second to Fota Island LTO but Central House was on the floor & the form looks suspect. Dempsey beat Tikram & Tysou over C&D 4 weeks ago & at the weights there shouldn't be much between them here. Dempsey has the ground more in his favour here though & needs to go right handed so he may come out on top again. Hoo La Baloo 50pts @ 3/1 Sporting Odds is the one for me. Also goes well right handed & won a valuable novice chase over C&D on Boxing day, the bare form is not much as the other three all tipped up. Only defeat over jumps behind the classy Racing Demon when he raced a bit too free. Stable in great form & seem very bullish about his chances here, no Ruby but Barry Geraghty is a good sub. 3.10 Be Be King is likely to win this with his head in his chest but is a very short price on handicap debut. Whatever he does today this will be a very good chaser next season. Looking for something to beat it & Ungaro takes the eye for one but at twice the odds I'm going with Rayshan 15pts @ 12/1 Totesport. Bred by the Aga Khan for the flat he was sold to the Wylie's but was hit & miss for them with Howard Johnson. Now with Nicky Richards he dead-heated for the valuable Lanzarote at Carlisle FTO for new connections, doing his best work close home. Best form on softer but could improve for the step up in distance here, new owners daughter takes off 7lb & she rode a good race on him LTO. 3.45 Iris Bleu goes well round here & also when fresh & he's had a break since a poor run in the Hennessy when the stable was also out of form. Most of the rest look exposed types except for perhaps Dunbrody Millar who would look to need a longer trip & Ladalko 50pts @ 2/1 Totesport. At 7yo is clearly improving & would probably have won here over C&D LTO but for falling two out when 3l clear & still full of running. A slight worry that the twice he's fallen from 7 chase starts have both been round here, Barry Geraghty is on this one as well & if he gets him round I think he wins. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks One of those days yesterday. My Way De Solzen was taken out because of the ground. Hoo La Baloo got wound up before the race & broke the tape, then during the race Hoo La Baloo & Dempsey took each other on & as Mick Fitz said on the RP web site " cut each others Throats". Don't know if the jocks could have prevented it but hurry up back Ruby. tysou won the race but not LTO when I backed It :eyes Having decided to go against the hot pot Be Be King & narrowed it down to two I picked the wrong one :eyes Put up the first & second as the two progressive sorts in the race & I still think Ladalko was the more likely winner & Tom Malone caught Geraghty napping when he kicked on from the pond fence but thats me talking through my pockets. Oh well ever onwards. So far then, Staked 1935pts Returns 2172.55pts Profit/Loss +237.55pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks What a pantomime at Newbury yesterday & their still arguing about if they could have raced if they'd put the start back. Theres nothing worse than working on the form only to find it's called off like Cheltenham the other week & having looked at "the Catt" & the clerk of the course shivering at the end of the morning line yesterday it never looked like being on to me. A cracking race at Leopardstown today. No not the Hennessy which must be the worse grade 1 I've ever seen, the novice chase at 2.50. Kill Devil hill ran below expectations LTO but scoped wrong afterwards, likey to run better today but would need to improve on previous form, tough battler in a finish though. Church Island unseated twice before finishing second LTO & looks held here. Father Matt is prone to jumping mistakes & the stable is not in top form at the moment. Our Ben will be suited by the step up in trip here but the bare form of his two chase starts is nothing much & this is a big jump in class here. Sher Beau is another full of promise but up in class today as well. Southern Vic 40pts @ 5/2 betdirect is the choice. Beaten by Father Matt at Navan over 2m 4f in mid December but has since improved tremendously winning a grade 1 & a grade 2 both on soft ground & over 3m. Drops back in trip to 2m 5f today & the ground is said to be faster but it's never that fast in Ireland at this time of the year. Theres likely to be a strong pace today so the drop back in trip should not be too much of a problem. He's in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at Cheltenham but is unlikely to go there unless the ground turns up soft & this is probably his last run this season so he should be ready to run a big race today. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Southern Vic was up with the pace but was outjumped down the backstraight & couldn't go the pace, a bit disappointing really. So far then, Staked 1975pts Returns 2172.55pts Profit/Loss +197.55pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Not getting too heavily involved today, as pointed out by others the ground is likely to be very testing just about everywhere today. Haydock 1.10 Jonjo's won this twice from nine runners in the last five years & runs three today. McCoy's on Olaso of the two JP owned but the best of the three may be Wild is the Wind who goes on the ground & could improve for the step up in trip & is worth 5pts each way @ 16/1 Bet365. I'm drawn to Fair Question 20pts @ 13/2 Sporting Odds though. A good winner last week at Ayr after a long break this one looked to relish the soft ground there & despite the 16lb rise in the weights could still be well in. Always the danger it could bounce today but seems worth the risk. Uttoxeter 3.35 Soon as McCoy's ridden First Gold in the Red Square at Haydock he's winging his way down to Uttoxeter for the one ride on Be my Better Half 20pts @ 8/1 Ladbrokes. All his three wins have come on this heavy ground & the trip should not be a problem, closely weighted with Better Days from two runs back but AP making the effort makes him the bet. Wincanton 3.55 A funny race for a big prize. Silver Birch is a short price for a horse on the comeback trail & with more than half an eye on the Grand National, although if he does win here there won't be a penalty for Aintree. Black De Bessy is consistant but this is a step up in class on previous form & this trip on softish ground may be too far. Celtic Son has not built on the promise shown FTO this season. Sonevafushi has gone up 17lb since winning three runs back & was pulled up LTO & maybe the handicapper has him now. All in the Stars will be staying on but may need a bit further on an easy track like todays. A chance is taken on Iris Royal 10pts @ 20/1 William Hills returning to something like the smart form of two seasons back. Races off 136 today & has run well off 152 in the past, ground should be no problem & has won over 3m before & easy track will help, stable remains in good form & there are worse 20/1 shots than this. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks No return from yesterday. Fair Question ran a smashing race to finish third, Wild is the Wind was pulled up. Be my Better Half was backed down to 7/2 but could only plod home in fourth. Iris Royal ran well for a long way & could still win a race, probably over a bit shorter & on faster ground. Fontwell 3.30 With the ground on the soft side & rain forcast I've had 50pts @ 5/4 My Way De Solzen Paddy Power. Not a great price but he ought to win this. The ground might be against Fire Dragon, Nathos, Dancing Bay & Turtle Soup are all getting on a bit & look exposed. Sporazene has been a bit disappointing & Nicholls looks to have gone off the boil a bit. Mughas goes on any ground & may give his stablemate most to do but The selection is open to improvement & they'll want to win this in case the grounds too fast at the festival & I'm hoping he wins well & shortens up for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle. So far then, Staked 2035pts Returns 2172.55pts Profit/Loss +137.55pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks My Way De Solzen wins well, if it does come up soft at the festival he would have a good chance. Fire Dragon didn't run so there was a rule 4, 50pts staked returns 106.25pts, a 56.25pt profit. So far then, Staked 2085pts Returns 227.80pts Profit/Loss +193.80pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Haydock 2.50 Doumen runs two & his raiders are always respected. Millenium Royal looks to have a lot to do here with an 8lb penalty for winning a substandard looking grade 1 in France & the best of Doumen's pair should be Blue Canyon, goes on the ground & should be suited by the step up in trip but has a bit to find here on previous form. Patriarch Express ran well on his comeback from injury at Sandown 19 days ago & also goes on soft, won on the course but always the chance he might bounce. Crystal D'Ainay 40pts @ 11/4 Sporting Odds is the choice. Won this race last season at it's usual home of Kempton when fitted with a first time visor which is on again today. Just below top class in staying hurdles with good form behind the likes of Inglis Drever & Baracouda in the past. Stable is in good form & could have run My Way De Solzen here & this looks a good chance to land a valuable prize. 3.20 Haydock Undeniable was just pipped by Ossmoses at Kelso in Early December & that one won the Red Square chase here the other day so should go well here. Wain Mountain ended a long losing run two starts back & will love the ground but did not show the same sparkle off this mark LTO. Doumen's also sent Moulin Riche 40pts @ 9/4 Paddy Power over. This one will also go on the ground & could be well in here on some good hurdles form. Fell four out in a decent hurdle race when still going well at Cheltenham LTO but did win a couple of chases in France as a 4yo. Only a 6yo & talked of as a possible King George type he would need to win this well to reach those lofty heights, jockey has ridden a couple of winners for this trainer over fences from seven rides & with a clear round he can take this. Rio.

[Chopper]

Re: Rio over the sticks I agree with you about Crystal D'Ainay today think that although the top three in the betting have alot of form that is comparable and have each beaten each other in the past i think that crystal D'ainay is just classier of the three. For those punters who don't mind betting deep odds on. It is still 3 places for the race on betfair and is 2/5 to finish in the first three surely if it stands up this is buying money :hope

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Well Crystal D'Ainay managed the third place for Chopper but only because Patriarch Express ended up on the floor after the last. The trainer on the Post web site said

But Alan King was reluctant to comment on the eclipse of Crystal D’Ainay, who was hampered five out and finished a remote third - asked for his views on the 5-2 favourite’s performance, the trainer said: “You don’t want to know.”

Not best pleased Mr King me thinks. Moulin Riche ran ok to finish second & Doumen said

Francois Doumen was delighted with Moulin Riche’s second place on his first run over British fences and said: “He pleased me enormously as the heavy ground was not at all his cup of tea. This was his prep race for the William Hill Trophy and I hope to win it again.”

On the subject of trainer quotes this tickled me

“I am not hot - I am a complete prick having a bit of luck!“ - Ginger McCain, after saddling the 31st winner of his personal best season.

Nice one Ginger. So far then, Staked 2165pts Returns 227.80pts Profit/Loss +113.80pts Ante post bets 45pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[Chopper]

Re: Rio over the sticks Your dead right rio dead lucky to finish third i had already written my money off turning for home. I agree it was a big dissappointment was never really traveling. Trainers usually can't wait to give an excuse finished lame did n't handle the ground scooped dirty strange that king didnt try and defend one of his stable stars or give a valid explanation

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Testing ground again everywhere today so not a day for going in large again. Sandown 3.20 Philip Hobbs has a fine record in this & so does Richard Johnson so Lacdoudal must command respect as the horse goes on the ground & the track, however the handicapper may have his measure now. Doumen runs two & both have good form but a poor wins to run ratio. L'Ami will go on the ground but is another plenty high enough in the ratings. Innox likes the track & looks to have been laid out for this but needs a career best to win. Ladalko fell when looking the winner over C&D two runs ago gifting the race to Graphic Approach & Ladalko is 3lb better off today but he then was a bit disappointing again over C&D when only second to Dunbrody Milllar but the ground was much faster that day. Can put in a dodgy jump or two as well. Graphic Approach is clearly going the right way but has gone up 5lb for that win & only McCoy has won on him. Fork Lightning is another laid out for this but is unproven on this going. This looks too classy for Distant Thunder, Ballycassidy has not progressed from his novice season & Iris Bleu is hard to catch on a going day & runs best fresh anyway. Calling Brave takes the eye & was the subject of an interesting piece in the ExChecker column in this weeks Raceform Update. He was a big price on Betfair for the Gold Cup & a good run here would see him shorten for the big one. Mick Fitz has picked him from the choice of two, the other is on the comeback trail as well & while he will need the run connections are sounding quite bullish. I've not backed him today but have had 5pts win @ 90.0 & 5pts @ 32.0 to place with Betfair for the Gold Cup. The bet today is My Will 15pts @ 14/1 Totesport. This one loves the mud & is 8lb better off with Lacdoudal for a 6l defeat over C&D in December. Ran a fair race a week ago over 2m 4f in a Grade 1 when staying on in second behind the useful Our Vic at Lingfield. Has won at this trip & if they go at a sensible pace here he can run a big race at a decent price. Newcastle 3.35 Another slog here. Kerry Lads has won on the ground & run well over marathon trips in the past but this is a stiff task here. Brave Spirit should go well but usually finds one too good. The aforementioned Dunbrody Millar is improving at a rate of knots & has gone up 35lbs since his first chase win at Fontwell five runs back. Needs a career best again here but goes on soft & loves a long trip. Philson Run could run a good race but then again he might run a stinker & the same applies to Marlek who goes on the ground & over a trip but was tailed off LTO behind Kerry Lads at Wetherby. Korelo 30pts @ 9/2 Ladbrokes is the choice. Goes on the ground but yet to try this type of trip. Won over 3m 2f at Chepstow LTO to boost confidence back over fences & has won over hurdles off a mark 14lb higher than today. Not often that Pipe & Murphy venture up here but this is a big prize & the jock has won three races from only six rides in the past five seasons here. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Both horses ran similar races yesterday. Both were unable to quicken with the leaders from around three out & then stayed on at the one pace to finish third. Calling Brave was never going & was pulled up & is now out to the maximum price on Betfair for the Gold Cup & will be lucky to run never mind win or place. At least I'm reading the market right & taking better prices than the SP's. Theres usually a lull before the storm now as we head to the festival in just over two weeks. So far then, Staked 2210pts Returns 2278.80pts Profit/Loss +68.80pts Ante post bets 55pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Newbury 4.15 Having a dabble today on Temoin 40pts @ 11/4 Totesport. Despite there being 18 runners in this there's not that many who look improving or unexposed types, Temoin does though. He has useful middle distance form on the flat in France & is the type that Henderson does well with. After taking a very ordinary Plumpton novice hurdle on his first start over here he then went to Sandown for a novice handicap where he was very impressive cruising up to the leader between the last two flights & winning with a ton in hand. Up 15lb for that here but time may show that he is much better than anything shown so far & the trainer who is in good form has won this race twice from four runners in the past five years. He's also in the Supreme novices & the Coral Cup at the festival & I've had 5pts @ 50.0 Betfair for the latter event as if he wins today he would look a well handicapped horse off the same mark as today with a 4lb penalty. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Didn't see the race yesterday but reading the RP report it seems that Temoin despite winning by only half a length scored very easily indeed. I'm a bit suprised at the SP of 7/2 I expected it to go the other way but a 110pt profit is most welcome. What I am puzzled by is also in the report it states Temion's only entry at the festival is in the Supreme novices yet the Post still have it in the Coral Cup. However looking on Oddschecker its no longer in the betting & looking in my Betfair account it seems that the bet has been voided. Newbury surrives the freeze but it looks another day to tread carefully. 2.40 The improver here looks to be Presenting Express 25pts @ 4/1 Ladbrokes. Up in class today but is three from three over fences & jumping better each time & doubts over a lot of the others make him the bet. Desailly is a non runner, Shalako has a poor win to runs ratio, Harrycone Lewis makes mistakes & had a bad fall a few runs back which dented his confidence over fences, two wins in last three starts were in novice hurdles. Of the Twiston-Davies pair Florida Dream would look the one open to improvement but Llewellyn's on Lord Maizey. This one was tailed off LTO on bad ground at Carlisle & looks to love Chepstows undulating track. Le Jaguar looks one of Nicholls lesser lights & Liam Heard is up & not the returning Ruby Walsh. The rest look exposed types to me. 3.15 This looks very hard but I'll take a chance on Non So 10ps @ 11/1 VCbet. 5lb better off with Claymore for a just over 2l defeat at Wetherby LTO on soft ground & he can turn that round here on the faster going but there won't be much between them. Hard to rule almost any of these out of this as only one is not a double figure price shows. That one is Cornish Sett who's a decent novice but hardly looks chucked in here off 140 & might find this just too far today. I'll stick with the in form Henderson & Saturday man Mick Fitz. So far then, Staked 2250pts Returns 2428.80pts Profit/Loss +178.80pts Ante post bets 55pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks A winner & a non runner yesterday. Presenting Express drifted in the betting & went off 9/2 & just to put the tin hat on it there were rule 4 deductions as well so the 25pts stake returns 115pts a 90pt profit on the day. So far then, Staked 2275pts Returns 2543.80pts Profit/Loss +268.80pts Ante post bets 55pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio over the sticks Well done with Presenting Express Rio - a rapidly improving horse it seems

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Saturday before the festival usually means pretty ordinary fare & with soft/heavy ground around another quiet day is in prospect. The Imperial Cup is worth a look, a decent prize today with a bonus for the winner going on to win a handicap at the festival means at least they will be trying. The winner usually comes from the first half dozen in the betting (8 of the last 10) & the longest price in that time was 16/1. Chuck out anything aged 8yo & above (14 of last 16 5yo to 7yo) leaves a shortlist of, Tarlac, Nous Voila, Ursis, Victram, Escrea & Fier Nomand. AP's picked Tarlac over Fier Nomand of the JP owned pair but it would not surprise me if he'd rather be on Ursis given the chance. Fier Nomand should handle the ground but this is a big ask on handicap debut & McCoy choosing the other means he's discarded. Tarlac is the sort that in form Henderson excels with. A Group 3 winner on the flat in Germany he won his first handicap LTO over C&D on only his third hurdles start & up 8lb here could still be well weighted but that was a weak race & the trainers record in this race is not great (1 place from 7 runners in the last ten years) Victram seemed to run out of gas in a similar C&D handicap in early December & again might not get home on todays going. The other Irish raider Escrea has been running well in some good handicaps at home but the Irish are not happy with the ratings their raiders get over here. Two runs ago she won well off 114 but was then well held off 123 so racing today off 131 she looks harshly treated here. Ursis must go well here, good win on soft at Chepstow LTO & 10lb rise seems fair. Has tended to hang right at times so the track should suit as well, tends to front run though & if they go too fast he might get done by a finisher. Much the same can be said for Nous Voila 30pts @ 8/1 Blue Sq. good winner of a Grade 2 on heavy at Haydock two runs ago he then failed to last home over 2m 4f at Uttoxetter off a mark of 133, 4lb higher here & the worry is he may get in a battle for the lead but I can see Murphy riding a more patient race today in behind the pace. Pipe has a good record in this race with four wins in the last ten years including three of the last four. The only handicap Nous Voila is in at the festival is the County hurdle which closes the meeting next Friday. I've also had 10pts @ 25/1 Sporting Odds Nous Voila for this race & it's non runner no bet. If he wins or runs well today he will go off much shorter & if he runs poor today then he may not even run. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Nous Voila raced just off the pace but faded from two out. Victram looked like he was going to get caught again but just held on. So far then, Staked 2305pts Returns 2543.80pts Profit/Loss +238.80pts Ante post bets 65pts Ante post profit/loss -10pts Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks So here it is again four days of the best jumps action there is. Better tidy up my ante post book before owt else. Percussionist, Hoo La Baloo & Calling Brave will all not run so thats 30pts down already :eyes Nous Voila is still in the County hurdle & best priced with the bookies at the 25/1 I had 10pts at, although it's showing at 80.0 on Betfair. The other two bets are still ok. Celestial Gold 15pts @ 12/1, generally 8's or 9/1, 12.5 on Betfair & My Way De Solzen 10pts @ 36.0, showing around 8's but 15.0 with Betfair, a spot of rain please :hope Today then, 2.00 The Irish usually dominate here & if Sweet Wake wins there'll be a right roar. Similar profile to the trainers winner of this in 2000 Sausalito Bay, two runs, two wins & has been backed for next years Champion hurdle already. Yet to race in this class though & is a skinny price at around 11/4. The one at the bottom is the interesting Irish runner, Quatre Heures is only a 4yo & goes here instead of the Triumph where the stable have the favourite Mister Hight. Both wins have come on softer ground than today & not a fluent jumper but win LTO under a penalty was impressive & this one can run a big race. The one for me though is Noland 20pts @ 15/2 Blue Sq. Good win over C&D in early December & followed up with another good win in the Grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown & finished off preparations with quite an impressive display at Exeter LTO. In what is likely to be a fast run race he will be running on at the death & can get Nicholls & Ruby off to a flyer. 2.35 This could quite easily be the race of the meeting. Racing Demon has looked impressive but does jump to his right & might need it softer, Murphy unable to ride makes this one to oppose. Monet's Garden may just be found wanting for a bit of speed over 2m & I've similar thoughts about Missed That. Accordion Etoile & Foreman should both find this trip to their liking but the former needs to improve on chase form so far & the latter is non too consistant. Voy Por Ustedes jumps well & gets better with each run, another with a bit to find though. Don't Be Shy 20pts @ 10/1 Sporting Odds beat that good yardstick Armaturk in a Grade 2 at Lingfield LTO looking quite impressive in doing so. Needs to handle todays going but looks a fair bet in a wide open contest. Pipe/Johnson have won the last two runnings of this & four times in the last ten years overall. 3.15 Much depends here on the running of Hardy Eustace. No doubt he loves the hill here but his form this season leaves question marks. At his very best he would just about win this again but even so Brave Inca 50pts @ 2/1 Sporting Odds has improved this year & would run him very close. He holds Macs Joy on recent running & that one has yet to prove he handles the track as well as the others. Arcalis was impessive in the Fighting Fifth but then flopped at Haydock & the stable looks under a cloud. The rest don't look up to much & AP can take this. 4.00 As in most of the handicaps here you need something with less than 11st on it's back that looks to be improving. The ones with that profile are Moulin Riche, Korelo, Dun Doire, No Half Session & Alderburn. Moulin Riche should go well but is inexperienced in big fields & over fences & is too short a price. Korelo looks well in on hurdles form but is not a good jumper & had a hard race over 4m 1f LTO. Dun Doire has gone up 50lb since his first chase handicap win & would look to need softer ground. No Half Sessions is another who would perfer more cut but looks most progressive, I'm not a fan of the jockey though. Alderburn 20pts @ 8/1 Bet 365 fell two runs back but jumped well LTO to win a novice handicap at Huntingdon. Will like the ground & the trip should suit & the stable looks in fair form. The other two races look best left alone. Good luck to all, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks A nice start to the festival with two winners from four bets today. 110pts staked returns 320pts for a profit of 210pts. I'd written Noland off two out but not to the extent of the exchange layer who layed £40 @ 1000/1 in running :eek It shows that while it may not be soft ground it is riding dead & will take some getting this week. Brave Inca lived up to his name & deserved the big prize. So far then, Staked 2415pts Returns 2863.80pts Profit/Loss +448.80pts Ante post bets 65pts Ante post profit/loss -30pts Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio over the sticks well done Rio, 2 decent bets landed today:clap

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Thanks bowles, on to day two. 2.00 With Black Jack Ketchum ducking the clash with Denman again this leaves the favourite as the clear form choice here. The win on New Year's day in the Challow hurdle was most impressive with some useful types beaten 20+ lengths. The third Boychuk as since filled the same spot behind yesterdays winner Noland & the fourth home Ungaro won the valuable Totescoop6 handicap at Sandown. Denman had a prep race a month ago at Bangor (Black Jack Ketchum taken out) & scored with ease despite looking a bit green. The stronger pace of todays bigger field should suit & the ground will not be a problem. Interesting that Carberry has chosen Nicanor over Mr Nosie, both have fair form as does the mare Refinement but not in the same class as Denman. The French raider Zaiyad is an unknown & could be anything but it's hard to see past the favourite here. I've been trying to avoid backing below 2/1 this season but I think Denman should ber odds on here. At the moment the best price with the bookies is 11/10 & a shade longer on the exchanges, I've Taken 100pts @ 2.2 Betfair last night & expect it to be backed on course & go off shorter. 2.35 The best form in the book is that of Darkness. I was on this one LTO at Sandown on Boxing Day when he jumped poorly & looked like getting beat till staying on up the hill to nick the race. Will be much better suited by going left handed today however I'm put off by McCoy choosing to ride Bold Bishop here. This one has improved this season but this step up in trip may not suit on this stiff track & all his best form is over 2m/2m 4f. The Listener has looked progressive but was a bit workman like in winning here on New Year's Day & since took a crashing fall at Lingfield. Our Ben is expected to reverse form with The Railway man from Leopardstown LTO over this longer trip but both seem to have connections scratching their heads to work out their best trip. I'm taking a chance here on Commercial Flyer 40pts @ 4/1 Sporting Odds living up to the hype. Tough as old boots & rattled up a four-timer in a month last Spring & ran three days on the trot. Jumped like a stag on chase debut at Taunton & the trip & ground will hold no fears today. 3.15 A real head scratcher this. Is Moscow Flyer past it? Is Kauto Star good enough? the Tingle Creek form looks nowt special. Is Fota Island better than a handicapper? Is Central House likely to run better than last years sixth? How good is the Frech mare Kario De Sormain? Will an outsider take this? Am I having a bet? No. 4.00 I did say yesterday that in the handicaps something with less than 11st & looking like it was progressive was the type. Well from 30 runners there are only three under 11st here & one of them is Fair Question 20pts win & 10pts the place (first 5) @ 18/1 Bet365. I backed this one LTO on heavy ground over 3m at Haydock where it ran a blinder making all the running & getting caught close home in a big field. Before that won at Ayr in another big field & this drop back to 2m 5f today should suit & providing they don't go off too fast & cut each others throats this one can run a big race. I'll leave the amateurs chase & the bumper alone, although I am tempted by Ruby on Equus Maximus, might see how the day goes. Good luck to all, Rio.

[Aykay1]

Re: Rio over the sticks Fingers crossed for a repeat of yesterday rio :)

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Not to be AK, a tough day for most I think. Excuse a moment, I must not back at less than 2/1 :spank Out early tomorrow & all day so I'm on tonight. 2.00 Cornish Sett 20pts @ 9/1 totesport. fair price with solid form & Nicholls & Ruby in a tight race. 2.35 A few of the well knowns here, Impek, Our Vic, Fondmont, Armaturk, Hand Inn Hand but I'll go with Sir Oj 20pts @ 11.0 Betfair, C&D winner who looks to be improving. 3.15 On My Way De Solzen ante post & the ground whilst not soft should hold no excuses & looks fair for all, if it does rain I won't complain though. 4.00 Backed Non So 20pts @ 16/1 Blue Sq LTO when he was taken out of the race. If he gets the trip he should go close here. 4.40 Not for me this one. 5.20 Olaso 20pts @ 13/2 Sporting Odds, improving type from stable thats won this twice in last three years, stays the trip & goes on any ground. So far then, Staked 2545pts Returns 2863.80pts Profit/Loss +318.80pts Ante post bets 65pts Ante post profit/loss -30pts Rio.

[bowles10]

Re: Rio over the sticks another winner, glad Non So finally came good for you Rio:clap

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Thank you bowles my friend, I've had a long day & I'll update tomorrow & I know that I have posted my totals wrong from yesterday but that was so sweet today, never mind NON SO :nana as the the song goes, I DID IT MY WAY................DE SOLZEN :nana :nana Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Rio over the sticks Put the days stake on Wednesday in as 130pts when it was 170pts so thats another 40pts loss so I need to correct my figures Staked 2585pts Returns 2863.80pts Profit/Loss +278.80pts Was out till late yesterday so I didn't get to watch the racing till quite late on, didn't know the results either so it was like watching it live. My Way De Solzen landed my ante post bet by a head & returned 333.51pts after commission. The icing on the cake came in the next with Non So landing the spoils & returning 340pts a profit of 260pts on the day. On a sad note five horses died yesterday incuding the one I backed in the last Olaso & it shows just what a dangerous game this can be. Nous Voila does not run in the last today & the 10pts ante post I had on Saturday was non runner no bet so stakes are returned on that one. So far then, Staked 2665pts Returns 3203.80pts Profit/Loss +538.80pts Ante post bets 55pts Ante post profit/loss +313.51pts And so to the last day. 2.00 I'm not a fan of this race & it's a leave alone for me. 2.35 If Denman had won I'd probably be on Black Jack Ketchum here but I'll leave it at the price :spank Gold Cup My last ante post bet is Celestial Gold 10pts @ 12/1, however it's now longer than that (14/1 & 21.0 on Betfair) & theres no confidence there now with the Pipe horses not running well so far. I can't have Beef or Salmon though, he doesn't jump well enough round here & is much better on a flat track with plenty of cut in the ground. Monkerhostin doesn't appeal either, likes the track but he's not good enough, the King George form is nowt special. The Irish raider Forget The Past 20pts @ 12/1 Ladbrokes fits the profile here, right age, improving, goes on the ground & jumps & stays well. My eye keeps landing on Iris's Gift 10pts @ 26.0 Betfair. This is a really classy hurdler but so far over fences his jumping has been poor but if he can manage to get round he's a fair price in a sub standard Gold Cup. 4.00 No thanks. The two betting races are not on C4 today. 4.40 I'm tempted by Andreas but for a change I'm not going with Ruby here. Green Tango 30pts @ 6/1 Sporting Odds is the choice. Still a novice but jumps well & is an improving type with useful form from two runs back when defeating subsequent dual winner & Arkle fifth Don't be shy at Hereford. goes on the ground & could be well in here off 139 on handicap debut. 5.20 Back with my man Ruby for the closer. Desert Quest 30pts @ 5/1 Blue Sq runs off the same mark of 127 here with just a 4lb penalty as LTO when smoothly landing a decent handicap at Newbury. Needs this sort of ground to show his best & looks nicely weighted here & is another improving type. Rio.