Racing Chat - Saturday 12th October

[The Brigadier]

Newmarket 1.15

The first of eight races covered by the ITV cameras today is this 1M 1F Group 3 Space Blues Darley Stakes which has attracted a field of nine. The best in at the weights today is the globe trotting Spirit Dancer but he hasn’t been seen for 196 days and one would think this is a stepping stone to his travels again this winter. John & Thady Gosden’s three-year-old Lead Artist is progressive and can run well although ideally wants fast ground and any cut in the ground would be against him. One horse who will have no problem on that score is Karl Burke’s four-year-old Liberty Lane who arrives on a career best effort when winning the Cambridgeshire Handicap over course and distance a fortnight ago. Clifford Lee rode him that day and retains the mount today. He should be thereabouts and is the pick.

 

LIBERTY LANE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

York 1.30

The first of York’s three ITV races today is the 6F listed Rockingham Stakes for two-year-olds which will be run on pretty testing ground. There’s very little soft ground form amongst the nine strong field with the highest rated being the Ricard Fahey trained Shadow Army who has been gelded and wears blinkers since last seen 47 days ago. He also has yet to encounter soft ground and a better pick is the Ralph Beckett trained Bolo Neighs who showed vastly improved form when running away with the Goffs 500 at The Curragh a fortnight ago on ground on the slow side of good. The Coulsty gelding pulled 7L clear of his rivals and a reproduction of that run can put this Hector Crouch ridden gelding right in the mix here.

 

BOLO NEIGHS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 1.50

The 10F Palace Pier Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two-year-olds and has attracted a field of seven including some promising staying types in the shape of the Gosden runner Dunamase and Ralph Beckett trained Starzintheireyes who both looked good winning their maidens and are stepping up in distance and class today. Aidan O’Brien saddles a a brace of runners with the Ballydoyle number one being the Curragh maiden winner Shackleton who steps up a further furlong with Ryan Moore seemingly picking this Camelot gelding ahead of stablemate County Mayo. He appears to be highly progressive and in a race in which the market will be prove informative is the selection.

 

SHACKLETON 1 point win @ 9/4 Ladbrokes

 

York 2.05

A good sized field of fifteen run in this valuable 1M 2 1/2F class 2 handicap. There’s plenty of soft ground form on offer including the Karl Burke trained top weight Bolster who should run well. William Knight’s Dual Identity has been in good form this season and his Cambridgeshire effort can be upgraded as he was drawn on the unfavoured near side. Paddy The Squire was also down the field in that race and likes to get his hooves in so appeals at a nice price to run well but I’ll take a chance with the confirmed mudlark Stessfree who’s form figures on ground deemed soft or worse reads 102212241. He was well backed earlier in the week when going down by a length to the progressive Galyx and off of the same mark David O’Meara’s four-year-old gelding looks good value each way with an additional place.

 

STRESSFREE 1 point each way @ 11/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

Newmarket 2.25

Six have declared for another interesting juvenile contest, the 1M Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes. Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has an excellent record in the race having won the contest for the past four years and saddles the progressive Silver Peak. William Buick’s mount looked smart when beating the subsequent easy winner Sir Dindan by a couple of lengths at Haydock last month. This is a step up in class but he can take this with the Aidan O’Brien runner Delacroix who is without doubt the form pick following his 1/2L second in a Group 2 at Leopardstown last month his big danger.

 

SILVER PEAK 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

York 2.40

The most competitive race of the day, including the Cesarewitch, is this twenty two runner class 2 Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap. Several can be given chances but the one that catches my eye is Kevin Ryan’s top weight Room Service who is two from two on soft ground with his latest effort when 11th in the Ayr Gold Cup easily excused on account of the fast ground. He may still have improvement to come as this is only his ninth career start. Tom Eaves rides and with additional places from a draw in the middle of the field can run well.

 

ROOM SERVICE 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 3.00

The day’s big two-year-old race is the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes which has attracted a a small but select field of six. Aidan O’Brien has half of the field with presumably Rock Of Cashel here to make the pace for his two stable mates. Expanded only got going late to score in maiden company on his debut at The Curragh a week ago so surely this will come too quick. The Lion In Winter is the Ballydoyle number one under Ryan Moore having shot to the front of next year’s Derby betting when winning the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in August. The runner up that day Wimbledon Hawkeye has won the Group 2 Royal Lodge since to frank the form and he looks the bet here. His biggest threat may come from the boys in blue with Charlie Appleby’s brace of impressive Middle Park winner Shadow Of Light and Group 2 Superlative Stakes winner Ancient Truth. I prefer the latter of the pair despite William Buick choosing the former who looked a sprinter to me and doesn’t appeal stepping up in trip here but the one to be with is The Lion In Winter.

 

THE LION IN WINTER 1 pint win @ EVS William Hill

 

Newmarket 3.40

The feature handicap of the day is the fiercely competitive Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap run over a stamina sapping 2M 2F with a field of twenty five spread across the course which starts in one county and ends in another! Irish horses have won this race five times in the last six and it looks like that sequence will continue with the market top heavy with runners from the Emerald Isle. Willie Mullins has won the race three times in the last 6 and saddles the totally unexposed runner Sea Of Sands who is a past Group 3 winner in Germany and bolted up in a maiden hurdle following a 776 day absence on his debut for Mullins in September. The only thing not to like about him is his price and the one I want to be with is the Gavin Cromwell trained Sixandahalf who won on the July course back in August prior to a good 3rd in the Irish Cesarewitch at The Curragh over 2M 1F last month. That was arguably a stronger race than this and he appeals each way under his 3lb apprentice Robert Whearty.

 

SIXANDAHALF 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

[richard-westwood]

On 10/8/2024 at 10:48 AM, richard-westwood said:

Just having a quick look at the upcoming cesarewitch .....a good race to test out any class thoughts 

Samui. 615

Dawn rising. 611 

Spirit mixer 599

Falcon eight 594 

The shunter. 590 

Run for oscar 585 

Sixandhalf  574 

 

As I mentioned class ratings alone aren't accurate .....they have to be coupled with other information ....form ratings .....speed ratings .....even trends ......this particular race lends itself strongly to trends ....in this race the trends very much favours the lower weights ....particularly 9-3 or below as the distance and regularly soft ground gives those a big advantage usually ...makes sense so that trend alone omits falcon eight ....samui ...dawn rising ....run for oscar ....and the shunter (who also fails on fitness ) .....leaving 2 

Sixandhalf  576 

Spirit mixer  599 

Pretty obvious who is currently interesting  me ....especially at 25/1 !!

I can't rate the fav sea of sands as he's a jump horse but the fact he's mullins and jump horses do really well in this race and he's fav he certainly warrants respect albeit short ...4/1 (50/1 into 4/1 )....biggest gamble of season 

Posted earlier in week on class thread