Racing Chat - Friday 11th October

[The Brigadier]

York 1.30

The first of ten races covered by the ITV cameras is a highly competitive sixteen runner class 2 1M handicap. With the ground currently riding soft (heavy in places) and with the odd shower still to come we need to be looking for a real mudlark. Step forward Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood’s five-year-old Thunder Roar who won two 7F handicaps on heavy ground at this time last year here and at Doncaster. He’s run well when conditions have been on the sloppy side this season finishing 1/2L runner up to the re-opposing Look Back Smiling at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting for which he is now a pound better off. His latest run also was a good one at Ascot on soft ground against horses rated higher than him and the handicapper has raised him 4lb in future handicaps so he is effectively 4lb well in today. He’s the pick although as earlier stated if I like him I must have a small stakes each way saver on Gemma Tutty’s Look Back Smiling at a nice price as his soft ground form ties in with the selection.

 

THUNDER ROAR 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

LOOK BACK SMILING 1/4 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newmarket 1.47

The first of five races at the headquarters of racing covered by terrestrial television is the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes run over 5F with a dozen juvenile sprinters declaring. Nothing really stands out to me with the likes of The Striking Viking, Treasure Isle, Coto De Caza and Grande Marques all found wanting already in this grade or higher. One horse who may be better than we’ve seen so far is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Midnight Thunder who bar getting left ten lengths at the start on his debut would be chasing a four timer today. He’s looked good at Windsor and Yarmouth this autumn with all three of his runs coming over 6F. He’s shown plenty of pace mind and had his latest victory sewn up at the furlong pole so the drop to the minimum trip is not a worry. Oisin Murphy has a great record with the under used Godolphin trainer and he looks the value bet.

 

MIDNIGHT THUNDER 1 point win @ 9/2 Bet365

 

York 2.05

A bumper field of fifteen two-year-olds have declared for this 7F EBF £100,000 Final. Although he has yet to race on anything like what he will encounter today the favourite, the Ralph Beckett trained Amiloc, will be hard to beat with his family all seemingly suited by soft ground. His sire Postponed was 2 from 2 on soft whilst his dam Colima won on her only start on soft ground. His half brother Chamade was also 2 from 2 on soft (including in listed company) and with his dam and half brother both trained by Beckett surely he will know whether he’ll go on the surface. He’s unbeaten in two starts on the all-weather at Kempton this season and this doesn’t look the strongest of races, with very little soft ground form to consider, so he is the selection.

 

AMILOC 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Newmarket 2.25

Ten run in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes run over 7F for two-year-old fillies. Ralph Beckett’s Cathedral is an interesting runner having bolted up on her only run which came in a all-weather maiden at Lingfield (3rd won since) and can be competitive but I prefer the more solid form pick in Ollie Sangster’s Flight who is the highest rated filly in the race. She bumped into a couple of useful sorts on her first two outings prior to comfortably breaking her duck at Sandown in August. Raised in class she certainly wasn’t disgraced in finishing third in the Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster last time over a mile behind the useful Desert Flower and shouldn’t mind the drop back a furlong today. Oisin Murphy has been aboard her for the last two outings and retains the partnership here.

 

FLIGHT 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 2.40

Seven have declared for this 1M 6F three-year-old handicap worth over £50,000 to the winner. Theres plenty of soft/heavy form on show with the likes of The Reverand (up 9lb for winning in the mud at Ascot), Who’s Glen (up 12lb for heavy ground win at Chepstow) and Forest Gate (up 7lb, though carrying just a 6lb penalty today for a heavy ground win at Epsom). They all have chances but it’s the top weight of David Menusier’s Master Builder that appeals the most. He followed a highly credible third in the Melrose Handicap at York by winning at Haydock over today’s trip of 1M 6F a fortnight later. The 3rd has won since from that race to boost the form and he showed he handles the mud when winning at Salisbury back in May beating the now 105 rated Subsequent off of levels by a head. despite top weight he may still be ahead of his mark which is currently 95 and he’s the selection under Danny Tudhope.

 

MASTER BUILDER 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 3.00

Eleven run in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes run over 7F which has quite an open look about it this year. Current favourite is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Dynasty who lost his chance when slowly away at Goodwood last time. Any ease in the ground however would seem to be against him (he was pulled out on officially good ground at Haydock in June) and you can also pick holes in his form when winning here on the July course in June. He’s a lay for me and the one I want to be with is the Paul & Oliver Cole trained Royal Scotsman. He hasn’t been seen since bolting up at Epsom’s Derby meeting in June, a 132 day absence which I must admit is a bit of a worry although he has run one of his career best races when third in last seasons 2000 Guineas following a 210 day break last year. Still entered in next weekend’s Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot he may just be too good for these if straight enough with Jamie Spencer on top.

 

ROYAL SCOTSMAN 1 point each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Chepstow 3.15

The first signs that the National Hunt season proper are just around the corner is this Chepstow two day fixture with the feature race being the 2M 3 1/2F Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a field of seven. It’s a tough race with all bar Bullets Hill, the rank outsider in with a chance of sorts but it’s the highest officially rated runner Intense Approach who appeals the most. The only Irish runner in the race, John C McConnell’s five-year-old has already won a maiden and a novice hurdle at Downpatrick and Kelso this autumn so will certainly lose nothing in match fitness today. Harry Cobden is an eye catching booking taking over from 5lb conditional jockey Alex Harvey and is the pick.

 

INTENSE APPROACH 1 point win @ 10/3 Hills

 

Newmarket 3.35

The feature race of today’s racing is the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile which is contested by seven juveniles. The form pick and one they all have to beat is surely the Charlie Appleby trained Desert Flower who is unbeaten in three starts this season including last time out in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes over today’s trip at Doncaster in September. She did that well defeating the re-opposing January, who looks held, and is a confident selection.

 

DESERT FLOWER 1 point win @ 6/4 Betfred

 

Chepstow 3.50

The second national hunt race shown by the ITV team this afternoon is this 2M 7 1/2F veterans handicap chase in which a healthy field of eleven go to post. Fitness at this time of year is a major factor and one horse who has a terrific record fresh which reads 111121171 is the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Good Boy Bobby who was my selection in this race a year ago when coming from the clouds over the last to get up on the line beating Aye Right by a neck. He went on to follow up from a 3lb higher mark at Sandown a month later but failed to win in four previous starts. He’s now just a pound higher than last year’s victory but 2lb lower than his last win and with his stable in terrific form and his record fresh looks the one to be with.

 

GOOD BOY BOBBY 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 4.10

One of the most competitive handicaps of the day is the 1M 4F Old Rowley Cup Handicap featuring fifteen runners but the bet of the day runs here in the shape of the Andrew Balding improver Mount Atlas who will be ridden by Oisin Murphy. Only his fifth ever career start (he unseated 5F out on his debut) he showed on his handicap debut that he was progressing the right way when winning a class 2 1M 4F handicap at Ascot by half a length from Insanity. That form has worked out remarkably well with the runner up winning since along with the 3rd (Melrose Handicap), 5th (listed race by 8 1/2L) and the 6th ( by 7 1/2L). Even the 7th has run well in finishing 3rd in a class 2 York handicap (beaten 1 3/4L). The handicapper has shunted up the selection 7lb but that may be lenient and he has a major each way chance. Due To Henry is another who’s form has been boosted and could feature although he like a few here have stamina to prove.

 

MOUNT ATLAS 2 points each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

[richard-westwood]

Old Rowley cup  full rating and class 

Imperial sovereign 407 580  total 987 

Brioni.  404 578  total 982

Grey Cuban. 376 568 total 944 

Goodwood odyssey. 378 560 total 938

Sun god. 380 459 total 839 

 

Brioni is on the upgrade and looks a good Ew bet at 6/1 but overall the computer is overwhelmingly saying for some reason that imperial sovereign at 25/1!! ....is epicly overpriced with with a value index of 1.8 .....so I'll go 5 PT Ew brioni ...and imperial sovereign