Racing Chat - Saturday 7th September

[The Brigadier]

Haydock 1.15

The first of five races covered by the ITV cameras today at Haydock today is this 1M Group 3 Superior Mile Stakes which has attracted a field of just seven. The highest rated is Charlie Hills’s Cicero’s Gift but with a drying forecast the ground looks to be going against him and the same can be said about David Loughnane’s Sparks Fly. Karl Burke’s Holloway Boy has only won one of his thirteen career starts and that came on his debut in the listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022 but he has been tackling top handicap company under a big weight this season and has definite claims today. Also on the shortlist is the only three-year-old in the race the Andrew Balding trained filly Clove Hitch who is the mount of Oisin Murphy and receives weight from all here. Soft ground would have been against her last time and she is worth chancing that she can get back to her previous win when spread eagling a Newbury novice stakes contest, coming home 8L to the good on fast ground. She will need to improve a bit but as this is only her sixth career start with ground conditions in her favour is worth backing especially with the firms laying three places in this seven runner contest.

 

CLOVE HITCH 1 point each way @ 6/1 Ladbrokes 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 1.35

There is potential for the ground here at Ascot to be quite soft with a big band of rain in the forecast so I’m looking at horses that are proven in soft conditions. Last year’s 4L Victoria Cup winner over course and distance Rebel Territory trained by Amanda Perrett ran well on his belated re-appearance at Goodwood 13 days ago and has to be on the short list from just a 7lb higher mark than that victory. I’ll be saving on him but it’s the three year younger Mission To Moon that is the main selection. Roger Varian’s three-year-old is two from two on soft ground and has been running well all season. Silvestre De Sousa takes the mount for the first time since winning on him at Goodwood in May and appeals each way in a race where there actually isn’t that much soft ground form.

 

MISSION TO MOON 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

REBEL TERRITORY 1/2 point each way @ 13/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Haydock 1.50

A competitive 1M 6F three-year-old class 2 handicap with ten runners is up next and I have a strong fancy here in the shape of the David Menuisier trained Master Builder. He ran a stormer on his only his fourth career start when third (beaten 2 1/2L) to Tabletalk in the Melrose Handicap at York a fortnight ago and a reproduction of that fine effort puts him right in the mix here despite a rise of 3lb. The Andrew Balding trained Contacto hasn’t been seen for over 100 days but looks one of the threats along with the hat trick seeking Hutchene from the Ralph Beckett stable who is wearing a first time visor today.

 

MASTER BUILDER 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Ascot 2.10

Eleven have declared for the second of two races shown by the ITV cameras from Ascot today. The 1M 4F Chapel Down Handicap is for three-year-olds only and features one of the best bets of the day in the David Menusier trained Goodwood Odyssey. The key to the son of Ulysses entire is soft ground. He’s won three of his six career starts, all in soft ground with his latest victory coming at Goodwood a fortnight ago when a cosy 1 3/4L winner of a similar grade handicap as this. A rise of 5lb looks relatively lenient and he can follow up under Benoit De La Sayette. William Haggas’s The Reverend is a possible danger having won his maiden on heavy ground on his debut at Newmarket last November and ran well behind a promising Gosden newcomer at Hamilton on heavy ground 15 days ago in second place, his first since being gelded. A mark of 86 could be fair on his handicap debut today and looks the main threat to a confident pick in Goodwood Odyssey.

 

GOODWOOD ODYSSEY 1 point win @ 9/2 William Hill

 

Haydock 2.25

A decent turnout of fifteen for the class 2 1M 6F Old Borough Cup with a first place prize of just over £50,000. Cases can be made for many including Divine Comedy who is two from two at the Lancashire track but may be better at slightly further and the David Menuisier trained Waxing Gibbous who has to prove his stamina. Charlie Johnston’s Knightswood was a big eye catcher at the big Goodwood meeting and will appreciate stepping back down to this trip having run at 2M last time. The bet for me though is the David O’Meara trained Epic Poet who showed he stays this trip well when stepping up to it for the first time in the Ebor Handicap at York last time when finishing an excellent 4L fourth to Magical Zoe. He was a length behind the Ian Williams runner Oneforthegutter that day and he looks another threat under Ryan Moore.

 

EPIC POET 1 point each way @ 9-2 Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 2.35

The first of two races brought to us by the ITV team from Kempton Park is the Group 3 1M 4F Unibet September Stakes in which we have a small but select field of seven. 2021 winner Hamish heads the market and should run well but he is eight years old now and has to put a disappointing effort at Newmarket last time out behind him. John & Thady Gosden’s Lions Pride will appreciate stepping back onto this surface with his two from three record here and is another who should be thereabouts but its the progressive Andrew Balding three-year-old filly Kalpana that catches my eye. She impressed in the listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton last time when beating the re-opposing Gosden horse God’s Window in fine style by 4 1/2L. This will only be her seventh career start so it’s feasible that she may still have further improvement in her and is the selection.

 

KALPANA 1 point win @ 10/3 bet365

 

Haydock 3.00

The less appealing of the nine races on terrestrial television today is this class 2 5F handicap which has an open look about it. Top weight Shagraan arrives in good form and should be thereabouts along with bottom weight Looking For Lynda who was a length ahead of Shagraan when the pair sandwiched subsequent listed winner Democracy Dilemma in a valuable 5F handicap at York’s Ebor meeting. There shouldn’t be much between them but the one who should run a big race is the ultra consistent Jim Goldie trained American Affair who not been out of the first two on all five occasions this season rising 22lb. His latest second to Dream Composer at Pontefract was as good as any of his runs this season and off of the same handicap mark can be competitive under 5lb apprentice Amie Waugh.

 

AMERICAN AFFAIR 1 point each way @ 4/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Kempton 3.15

A maximum field of fourteen battle it out for the class 2 Unibet London Mile Series Final Handicap. The favourite is the William Haggas trained Kilt who is only having his fifth career start and is well berthed in stall 2 under Tom Marquand. He had one of today’s competitors, last year’s winner Helm Rock well behind when runner up at Haydock last month to Old Cock on his handicap debut, going down by just 1 1/4L. He has plenty to recommend him bar his price and with luck in running he has to be the selection today. Last year’s winner Helm Rock in now 8lb lower and is an interesting runner for the Kubler’s but he’s drawn out wide and will have work to do from out there in a race in which he won from stall 3 last year. Jamie Osborne and his daughter Saffie also have claims with their most consistent bottom weight Valyrian who has not been out of the first two on his last six starts. He appeals each way but the bet has to be the totally unexposed Kilt.

 

KILT 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Haydock 3.35

The day’s feature race is the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup run over 6F which this year has attracted a field of sixteen. Sheikh Obaid has a strong hand in his famous yellow colours with the large black spots in the Karl Burke trained hat trick seeking Elite Status and of more interest the Kevin Ryan trained Inisherrin who to me looks the one they all have to beat. Sixth in the 2000 Guineas when blatantly not staying the mile he dropped to today’s trip in the Sandy Lane Stakes over course and distance when running out a 3 3/4L winner prior to an impressive win in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. A well backed favourite he could only finish fifth in the July Cup on his latest start but the track may not have suited and back to a more conventional track he can take this valuable prize. The biggest threat to him may lie with Karl Burke’s Swingalong who has the assistance of William Buick today. He’s been runner up on his last two starts in the Group One’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot and the July Cup at Newmarket.

 

INISHERRIN 1 point win @ 7/2 William Hill

SWINGAWAY 1/2 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

[richard-westwood]

Old borough cup 

Epic poet. 424 5/1 Val 0.41

Divine comedy. 420 7/1 Val 0.55

The goat 415 10/1 Val 0.83 

Oneforgutter.  411 8/1 Val 0.72

Top rated looks strong .....the goat is the value bet but is by no means guaranteed to stay this far. .but if stays could be dangerous  ..so doesn't tempt me even with oisin up ......I'll try 5 PT wins top 2

Edited September 5 by richard-westwood