richard-westwood Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 427 red One of our own 210 0.62 7/1 Garifullina 206 0.45 5/1 Attolblairboy 201 1.55 20/1 Dandy spirit. 197 0.93 12/1 Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both ..... black rabbit, harry_rag, Bedlam and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 I fancied So Grateful in that race Richard, where did he come out on your ratings? 4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 427 red One of our own 210 0.62 7/1 Garifullina 206 0.45 5/1 Attolblairboy 201 1.55 20/1 Dandy spirit. 197 0.93 12/1 Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both ..... black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivans82 Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Each way double in the two listed races at La Teste Du Buch , Imparable and Love Rush . black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted July 21 Author Share Posted July 21 (edited) 43 minutes ago, DanV89 said: I fancied So Grateful in that race Richard, where did he come out on your ratings? It's coming in at 186 ....so quite a bit behind the others ?......I've rated all the Irish races and can't find any value there at all ..either..bookies seem to have it all sewn up so no interest there ....just this one race today But yours is on a good mark Edited July 21 by richard-westwood The Equaliser, DanV89, black rabbit and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Whisper A Prayer 3 45 Curr 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 anaconda69, The Equaliser and azzybear 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 burning man 11.55 scotsville The Equaliser and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 cowarofthecounty 2.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 (edited) 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both ..... Same here. Done Boy & Star as the top 2 on the value metric. (4 places). # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Phoenix Star 17 107.16 110.06 2 Without Flaw 5 106.97 31.50 3 Athollblair Boy 19 106.54 112.43 4 Garifullina 5 106.34 28.67 5 One Of Our Own 8.5 105.50 42.31 6 Irish Dancer 34 102.97 91.25 7 So Grateful 9 102.80 22.78 8 Dandy Spirit 15 102.74 37.21 9 Back Tomorrow 23 99.73 10 Hoof It Hoof It 9.5 99.65 11 Gunnerside 34 97.22 12 Birdie Bowers 31 97.06 13 Motawaazy 19 92.74 14 Urban Dandy 17 91.73 15 Miss Rainbow 41 80.84 More hurry, less speed, repent at leisure etc. Ratings are fine but the value numbers are suspect. Copy and paste error with the new formula. Will correct it and see how good or bad the bet decisions look! Edited July 21 by harry_rag Effed up! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 California Dreamer 10 113.55 113.55 2 Babouche 2.625 113.15 28.93 3 Cowardofthecounty 3.75 105.16 16.20 4 Celtic Chieftain 26 103.44 74.84 5 Camille Pissarro 5.5 102.39 11.03 6 Sir Yoshi 41 101.02 35.03 7 Regal Gem 26 99.87 8 Treasure Isle 34 96.76 9 No Return 26 93.26 10 Barton Key 151 71.41 2:10 Curragh, rated by Zil in the Speed Ratings thread. Gone win on California Dreamer and e/w on Celtic Chieftain, Zil's top rated. That's it for today (barring correcting the other race). richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 44 minutes ago, harry_rag said: More hurry, less speed, repent at leisure etc. Ratings are fine but the value numbers are suspect. Copy and paste error with the new formula. Will correct it and see how good or bad the bet decisions look! I'm getting the same results so it's as you were! I need to bring the template up to date as I've been tinkering race by race and copying the updates across which has lead to the confusion. I think I'll save that for another day. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. Matterhorn 25 13/8 ( my odds 4/1) In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1) Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1) Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 I’ll put the other up incase there’s a drift 3.35 Newton Abbot Mr Yeats 27 9/2 ( my odds 6/1) Halifax 26 9/2 ( my odds 13/2) Wavering Down 25 11/2 ( my odds 13/2) All 3 are strong in the betting so a drift looks unlikely so no bet as it stands richard-westwood, Bedlam and Bronxie 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Quiet day really maybe should leave it alone as rated one race and not much wriggle room regarding odds but then I’ve just done the 3.25 at Stratford which is only a 7 horse race but offers some good prices. Matterhorn 25 13/8 ( my odds 4/1) In This World 23 7/4 (my odds 5/1) Sir TiVo 11/1 23 11/1 ( my odds 5/1) Cracking Destiny 23 18/1 ( my odds 5/1) Tight affair and two hot favourites but I think it’s worth taking them on with the odds available so point win on both Sir TiVo and Cracking Destiny The two young guns finish first and second with the latter two nowhere and falling -18 Edited July 21 by Villa Chris Bronxie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 410 n Supposedtobe 5/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 465 c Sidiza 7/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just a bit of rating testing today ....top rated isn't bad at 7/1 but overall the value lies Ew with attol and dandy so I'll try 1pt Ew both ..... Hope you went 5 places! I got 4th and 5th but only a return on the former. There was only one firm going 5 places. I still need to get my head round how much of a shorter price is acceptable to take in return for the extra place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Hope you went 5 places! I got 4th and 5th but only a return on the former. There was only one firm going 5 places. I still need to get my head round how much of a shorter price is acceptable to take in return for the extra place. You're getting deeper and deeper into the mire of horse racing, once in there's no escape ! Bronxie, Bedlam and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM Already I’m getting frustrated with the value bets 🤣 I’d probably be up backing top rated but it’s only small stakes and I’ll keep persisting until I’m confident I’m getting the odds wrong . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted Sunday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:56 PM 10 hours ago, richard-westwood said: It's coming in at 186 ....so quite a bit behind the others ?......I've rated all the Irish races and can't find any value there at all ..either..bookies seem to have it all sewn up so no interest there ....just this one race today But yours is on a good mark So Grateful beaten half a length into 3rd, thought I was in about a furlong out but was collared near the line. Thought jockey was weak to be fair. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:17 PM 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: You're getting deeper and deeper into the mire of horse racing, once in there's no escape ! I do need to keep an eye on the “betting-life” balance so I don’t want to go too far down the rabbit (horse?) hole. I also don’t want it to detract too much from the goalscorer betting but there’s a few weeks’ grace before that gets back to full tilt. I’m not expecting too much from a system using basic freely available RP numbers but it’s better than how I’d have approached picking out bets previously and the main purpose is improving the spreadsheet. It’s certainly better than a “garbage in/garbage out” scenario but it will be better still with decent ratings plugged into it. I’ll try and do a race or two most days until the football ramps up then see how things stand but at least, by then, I should have the spreadsheet pretty much nailed down to be wheeled out when required. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: I do need to keep an eye on the “betting-life” balance so I don’t want to go too far down the rabbit (horse?) hole. I also don’t want it to detract too much from the goalscorer betting but there’s a few weeks’ grace before that gets back to full tilt. I’m not expecting too much from a system using basic freely available RP numbers but it’s better than how I’d have approached picking out bets previously and the main purpose is improving the spreadsheet. It’s certainly better than a “garbage in/garbage out” scenario but it will be better still with decent ratings plugged into it. I’ll try and do a race or two most days until the football ramps up then see how things stand but at least, by then, I should have the spreadsheet pretty much nailed down to be wheeled out when required. I'm really really chuffed with how it's going tbh because it's still early days .....the maths for calculating percentages and edge is as spot on as it can be ......and it's not flawless as when tackling big races the percentages can be skewed giving you inflated tissues but there's no way to mitigate that ....but value alone is no good .......I've seen plenty of 20/1 tissue available at 50/1 and it would be easy to say wow 😳....and just back blindly but it's fools gold because if the horses form gives it a 2% chance then you'll get huge losing runs so no fun...... but one half of the equation is perfect Now I just need to fine tune the form side of the equation .....I can see what's working and what needs changing so it's a case of taking pieces out and slotting in new pieces until I get the right formula .....once both sides are balanced and working in perfect harmony....I think this has the potential to be the greatest betting system I've ever had I'm convinced of it so it's definitely worth putting in the effort .....nothing worth having is ever easy .....I'm genuinely excited because I know what this is capable of if handled properly and it's right up my street as I love value hunting DanV89, justanotherpunter, MCLARKE and 5 others 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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