Racing chat -saturday 20th July

[richard-westwood]

Irish oaks 

Port fairy  358 0.49 

Lava stream 348 0.87 

War chimes. 343. 0.78 

You got to me. 340 1.62 

LAVA STREAM looks the overall Ew value bet at 10/1 but with 4 places on offer YOU GOT TO ME has massive  Ew value at 20/1 so also warrants a Ew bet 

1pt Ew both 

[The Brigadier]

Newbury 1.50

The first of seven races covered by ITV on a day lacking too much quality is this listed 1M 2F Steventon Stakes which has attracted a small field of just five. Owners Shadwell have a brace of runners including last year’s winner Al Aasy who is three from four at the track but we havn’t seen him for 287 days with Phantom Flight also heading here following a long break. Shadwell’s retained jockey Jim Crowley has presumably opted to ride the Owen Burrows three year old Alyanaabi who has finished a credible fifth in the Group one’s 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes this season and this is a drop in grade for the colt. He will be hard to beat even if he has been well found in the market.

 

ALYANAABI 2 points win @ 4/5 William Hill

 

Market Rasen 2.05

The first of three tricky handicaps shown by ITV from Market Rasen is this 2M 4 1/2F class 3 handicap hurdle which has a wide open look about it. Jonjo & Anthony O’Neill’s top weight Pyffo is chasing a hat trick so would have to be on the short list along with the already supported Flying Fortune from the very much in form Peter & Michael Bowen stable. One horse that does look over priced and is worthy of a small stakes each way bet is Alex Hales’s ten year old Breaking Waves. He’s not been the most consistent or genuine horses over the years but did nothing wrong when running out a 8L winner at Uttoxeter three weeks ago when seemingly unfancied at 28/1. He had the Skelton horse Clararose the best part of 12L behind him that day and despite now 8lb wrong with that horse at the weights can conform the form with a horse that is priced up considerably shorter.

 

BREAKING WAVES 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 2.25

A field of ten run in this class 2 handicap over a trip of two miles and half a furlong. Hughie Morrison has been amongst the winners recently and saddles his Kyle Of Lochalsh with Hollie Doyle in the saddle. An easy winner in the mud at Salisbury on his penultimate run he proved at Royal Ascot that he can go on any terrain when running a fine third to Pledgeofallegiance in the Ascot Stakes Handicap on good to firm ground. He holds Temporize who was 5L behind that day and looks the one to be on in this trappy looking handicap in which bottom weight and recent Ascot winner Dancing In Paris looks a danger.

 

KYLE OF LOCHALSH 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Market Rasen 2.40

A maximum field of seventeen have declared for the £60,000 guaranteed Summer Handicap Hurdle run over 2M 125 yards. The race has a wide open look about it with many holding claims including Kerry Lee’s Black Poppy who we haven’t seen since last Boxing Day and David Pipe’s Manuelito towards the foot of the handicap but the selection is the Dan Skelton trained Mostly Sunny who has only had the four runs over timber so may have some more improvement to come. He’ll have to turn around his latest form when running second to the re-opposing Maxcel of Mel Rowley’s. Only a nose separated the pair at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and with a one pound turnaround in the weights may be able to gain his revenge in this valuable race.

 

MOSTLY SUNNY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newbury 3.00

The Group 3 Hackwood Stakes has attracted ten runners this year running over a distance of 6F. A case can be made for several including three year old’s Karl Burke trained Elite Status and William Haggas’s Lake Forest but its the ultra consistent six year old Regional that is the pick. Trained by Ed Bethell he’s finished runner up in a Group 2 and Group 1 this season with his latest one length second to the Aussie sprinter Asfoora in KIng Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot a career best. That was over 5F but he wont mind stepping up a furlong here and with the ground drying all the time another big run is expected.

 

REGIONAL 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Market Rasen 3.15

Another maximum field of sixteen for the feature race of the afternoon at Market Rasen in the £100,000 guaranteed Summer Plate Handicap Chase run over 2M 5 1/2F. Like the previous two handicaps televised by ITV on the card the race has a wide open look about it. It may be worth chancing Peter & Michael Bowen’s old timer Francky Du Berlais who has an excellent record in this very race having won it in 2021 and 2022 on good ground but flopping last year when the rain scuppered his changes with the ground turning soft. He’s now racing off of a mark of 131 which is 8lb and 6lb lower than his two wins in this race so is without doubt well handicapped. He’s run third in handicap chases at Perth and Cartmel this season to prove his well being and although he’s not won since the victory in this race back in 2022 can run well each way under trainer’s son James Bowen.

 

FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newbury 3.35

A decent sized field of nineteen run in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The best in at the weights here is actually Karl Burke’s Kaatibb who should run well along with Hugo Palmer’s It Ain’t Two under Oisin Murphy. Only two of the field have future group entries and I’ll chance the Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry Time For Sandals trained by the very much in form Harry Eustace at Newmarket. She made a winning racecourse debut at Kempton as a 10/1 chance last month beating a well bred and touted Andrew Balding favourite and having been sold for only 35,000 euros gets in here with a nice weight. She’s the each way pick although it may also be worth a small stakes each way saver on the other future group entered Caburn. Trained by Jack Jones he made a winning racecourse debut when beating the subsequent easy winner Brighton Boy at Salisbury last month and has since been given an entry in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York.

 

TIME FOR SANDALS 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

CABURN 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

[richard-westwood]

Super sprint 

It ain't two. 317 0.22

Vingaard. 305 0.38 

Kaadi. 294.  0.52

Do it now 290 0.96 

Top rated has a big form rating ....but Ew value with 4 places  is  DO IT NOW 14/1 ...is fourth on form but rapidly improving and could be better than rating 

1pt Ew 

 

Edited Friday at 11:19 AM by richard-westwood

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Port Fairy	6.5	108.61	67.45
2	Lava Stream	10	108.30	100.00
3	War Chimes	11	107.53	99.85
4	Content	4.333	105.62	29.36
5	Dare To Dream	9	105.06	54.91
6	You Got To Me	17	104.40	90.22
7	Caught U Looking	21	100.13	3.38
8	Hanalia	10	96.86
9	Purple Lily	15	96.86
10	Lope De Lilas	9	96.36
11	Rubies Are Red	51	95.59
12	Madam Celeste	101	94.21
13	Elizabeth Jane	41	91.78
14	Galileo Dame	31	88.66

Irish Oaks. Will do the Super Sprint at Newbury as well. By rating 3 races today (and clicking on several more looking for the right ones) I've managed to hit the view limit on Odds Checker. My advice, don't click on a race looking for the right one, make sure you (as Flavor Flav would say) know what time it is!

[richard-westwood]

5 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	Port Fairy	6.5	108.61	67.45
2	Lava Stream	10	108.30	100.00
3	War Chimes	11	107.53	99.85
4	Content	4.333	105.62	29.36
5	Dare To Dream	9	105.06	54.91
6	You Got To Me	17	104.40	90.22
7	Caught U Looking	21	100.13	3.38
8	Hanalia	10	96.86
9	Purple Lily	15	96.86
10	Lope De Lilas	9	96.36
11	Rubies Are Red	51	95.59
12	Madam Celeste	101	94.21
13	Elizabeth Jane	41	91.78
14	Galileo Dame	31	88.66

Irish Oaks. Will do the Super Sprint at Newbury as well. By rating 3 races today (and clicking on several more looking for the right ones) I've managed to hit the view limit on Odds Checker. My advice, don't click on a race looking for the right one, make sure you (as Flavor Flav would say) know what time it is!

Me too on odds checker lol ...I just used atr racecard ....same top 3 ...tricast?...😉

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	It Ain't Two	4.5	120.74	67.26
2	Vingegaard	6.5	116.87	79.03
3	Kaadi	8.5	116.32	100.00
4	Do It Now	17	106.47	79.31
5	Pont Neuf	15	104.24	45.86
6	Time For Sandals	7	104.19	21.15
7	Kuwaitya	34	103.16	77.33
8	Larchill Lass	34	101.07	26.11
9	Miss Collada	10	100.32	2.27
10	Mythical Composer	9	100.07	0.46
11	Al Hussar	67	97.93
12	Jm Jhingree	34	97.85
13	Caburn	10	97.21
14	Mister Mcgregor	67	94.65
15	Mapledurham	41	93.38
16	Coiled	101	91.18
17	Sir Palamedes	101	90.73
18	Invincible Annice	67	85.39
19	Paddy's Courage	151	78.23

Super Sprint. Might leave it till the morning to look for any bets.

[black rabbit]

Commanche Falls                                                    3 00 Nbry                        1/40th of a pt ew           18/1

Miss Collada                                                             3 35 Nbry                        1/40th of a pt ew            10/1

Kuwaitya                                                                   3 35 Nbry                        1/40th of a pt ew            44/1           - 6th

Castle Gandolfo                                                       2 40 Mrk                         1/40th of a pt ew            16/1          - Won

Torivega                                                                    2 35 Curr                        1/40th of a pt ew            14/1           - 4th

Sleeping Lion                                                           2 25 Nbry                        1/40th of a pt ew            22/1

 

 

P/L    + 177.50 pts

Edited Saturday at 02:52 PM by black rabbit

[Villa Chris]

Ripon 3.55

Iron Lion 24 7/1 ( my odds 7/1)

Lord Protector 23 20/1 ( my odds 7/1)

Sea King 21 5/2 ( my odds 8/1)

L’Astronome 21 20/1 ( my odds 8/1)

Couple of surprises in here with Lord Protector and L’Astronome rating high. Will play both a point each as excellent value 

[Villa Chris]

Cartmel 4.35 

Hurricane Ali 23 10/1 ( my odds 9/1 10/1)

Sea The Clouds 22 8/1 ( my odds 10/1) 

Lunar Power 22 16/1 ( my odds 10/1) 

2 points win Lunar Power 

[Villa Chris]

Also rated the summer hurdle and summer plate at market Rasen and although there’s value in the prices the % of any given horse winning was low so I’ll leave them alone . The race above just about made it worth while in terms of % of horse winning .

Edited Saturday at 06:38 AM by Villa Chris

[Trotter]

Newbury Super Sprint 3.35

two against the field .........

Mythical Composer 11/1 wm hill
Caburn 12/1 bet365

based on going through the field one by one and eliminating them if I think they might not be ideally suited to a big field 5 furlong race on good to firm ground .......then whoever was left seeing what the other horses in the races they'd had have done since, ie winning or getting thrashed

 

[calva decoy]

7,500-8,000 are due at Market Rasen for the annual punch up day , I've done both of P.Bowens in Plate at 3.15 

STATUARIO 10/1 eway ( 5 places ) 3rd 11/1

FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 10/1 eway ( 5 places ) both bet365 .4th 9/1 

Cash back & a little bit of profit 👍

Edited Saturday at 02:56 PM by calva decoy

[jonjo]

Fillies day.

3.40 Curragh.

Hanalia won the Oaks Trial at Naas in nice fashion, being held up and then came nice and smoothly to win the race, three have come out of that race to win next time up including a Listed and a Group Race winner. Murtagh does well with his 3 year olds when they are on the up and in a open race she looks overpriced at 11 on the exchanges and around 3.55 to place, win and place............finished 5th or 6th after being boxed in, reasonable enough run but not the jockeys greatest moment.

6.35 Newmarket.

Mistral Star looks to have a chance in this Listed Race. She finished third in the Pinnacle at Haydock last time out and but for having to be switched first left then right would have finished quite a bit closer. The form was franked by the winner who went on to take a Group 2 next time up. Currently drifitng at 11.5 on the exchanges and its early for place liquidity but around 3.6 would be fair. Win and place.......Won impressively, the 11.5 was nice to get 😘

6.55 Haydock.

Secret Mistral looks sure to go well here. Only once out of the first four at Haydock in seven attempts that includes a win and two places over course and distance from three attempts. Winner of a Class 4 on her seasonal debut here (C&D) she then went on to contest an Apprentices race, as can happen in these races she mets lots of trouble and possibly got some unfair reviews for her run that day. Back in a Class 5 Handicap where Doughty can claim his 5lb she can hopefully go close. Showing at 4.9 on betfair and no prices yet in the 2tbp market. Win and 2 places........... almost but the 2 places paid 2.6 on betfair  😋

 

Good luck whatever you play today. 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 06:00 PM by jonjo
Update results

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

but Ew value with 4 places  is  DO IT NOW 14/1 ...is fourth on form but rapidly improving and could be better than rating 

Wasn’t a good idea to sleep on that one! 

[richard-westwood]

4 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Wasn’t a good idea to sleep on that one! 

Fantastic price .....I've had some extra Ew bets for a bit of fun ....I just think he's way overpriced 

[Zilzalian]

16 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Wasn’t a good idea to sleep on that one! 

Do It Now... i concur with Richard that it was a good ew bet at those prices but Its come up short on its last 2 runs and even though this is what looks like a bland renewal i still can't bet on it, the one for me is lope de lilas 12/1, great Speed figure for its last race any improvement is going to put it bang there. Has Mullins ever won a classic? He might well add to his remarkable achievements today.

[richard-westwood]

14 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Do It Now... i concur with Richard that it was a good ew bet at those prices but Its come up short on its last 2 runs and even though this is what looks like a bland renewal i still can't bet on it, the one for me is lope de lilas 12/1, great Speed figure for its last race any improvement is going to put it bang there. Has Mullins ever won a classic? He might well add to his remarkable achievements today.

I think the rain will effect this race 

Edited Saturday at 10:24 AM by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

22 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I think the rain will effect this race 

got two races mixed up lol that should read you got to me and not do it now.😊

[Zilzalian]

Super sprint (i'm not a fan of these races)

For what its worth.

1 mythical composer      126         12/1

2 it aint two                       125         3/1 (silly price)

2 do it now                         125         25/1

4 al hussar                         124        66/1

[harry_rag]

Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
Port Fairy	8	108.61	77.23
Lava Stream	9.5	108.30	88.39
War Chimes	13	107.53	109.79
Content	5.5	105.62	34.68
Dare To Dream	15	105.06	85.15
You Got To Me	9.5	104.40	46.91
Caught U Looking	26	100.13	3.89
Hanalia	8.5	96.86
Purple Lily	10	96.86
Lope De Lilas	15	96.36
Rubies Are Red	41	95.59
Madam Celeste	51	94.21
Elizabeth Jane	34	91.78
Galileo Dame	26	88.66

Irish Oaks updated with latest prices. I've also tweaked the value indicator. Was previously flagging the best value in any given race at 100 but not telling you whether the perceived value was huge, moderate or indifferent. Best value will now be over 100 and the bigger the number the better the value. 109.79 probably qualifies as "ok" Will play War Chimes win single and 

15 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

same top 3 ...tricast?

why not!

[Offramp]

A reverse forecast. I think this bet has good chances.

[harry_rag]

#	Horse	Odds	Rating	Val
1	It Ain't Two	4.333	120.74	69.34
2	Vingegaard	6	116.87	78.11
3	Kaadi	8.5	116.32	107.07
4	Do It Now	23	106.47	114.89
5	Pont Neuf	17	104.24	55.65
6	Time For Sandals	8.5	104.19	27.49
7	Kuwaitya	34	103.16	82.80
8	Larchill Lass	23	101.07	18.91
9	Miss Collada	9.5	100.32	2.31
10	Mythical Composer	17	100.07	0.93
11	Al Hussar	101	97.93
12	Jm Jhingree	67	97.85
13	Caburn	13	97.21
14	Mister Mcgregor	51	94.65
15	Mapledurham	41	93.38
16	Coiled	101	91.18
17	Sir Palamedes	81	90.73
18	Invincible Annice	67	85.39
19	Paddy's Courage	126	78.23

Kaadi win at 10.37 (used a boost) and Do it Now 22/1 e/w to 5 places. Top 3 on ratings some way clear of the rest so played the forecasts as well.

[Bang on]

3.50 M.Ras - Post no Bills - 12/1 EW (1/5th 4 places) - Has been dropping in the weights ( -12lbs in 5 runs) and has won from 9lbs higher within the last year. Sean Bowen rides for Ryan Potter who is 1 win, 1 place, from 4 runners in last 2 weeks. At 12/1 and with 4 places with most bookmakers it looks a solid EW bet.

4.00 Cart - Vocal Duke - 16/1 EW (1/5th 4 places) - Course specialists Charlotte Jones and James Moffit team up for this ( as usual). Last win was over 2 years ago and that was off 111 ( today 105). Again, with 4 places looks worth a bet.

Maybe more later.

[Tedthewolf]

On 7/19/2024 at 11:11 AM, The Brigadier said:

Newbury 1.50

The first of seven races covered by ITV on a day lacking too much quality is this listed 1M 2F Steventon Stakes which has attracted a small field of just five. Owners Shadwell have a brace of runners including last year’s winner Al Aasy who is three from four at the track but we havn’t seen him for 287 days with Phantom Flight also heading here following a long break. Shadwell’s retained jockey Jim Crowley has presumably opted to ride the Owen Burrows three year old Alyanaabi who has finished a credible fifth in the Group one’s 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes this season and this is a drop in grade for the colt. He will be hard to beat even if he has been well found in the market.

 

ALYANAABI 2 points win @ 4/5 William Hill                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Has been super boosted to 6/4  by 365 for anyone interested.

 

 

[ivans82]

Amazed at the price of Vinegaard at the moment 4-1 2nd fave  ,  drawn 4 in a race where high numbers always seem to dominate .

[Villa Chris]

6 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Ripon 3.55

Iron Lion 24 7/1 ( my odds 7/1)

Lord Protector 23 20/1 ( my odds 7/1)

Sea King 21 5/2 ( my odds 8/1)

L’Astronome 21 20/1 ( my odds 8/1)

Couple of surprises in here with Lord Protector and L’Astronome rating high. Will play both a point each as excellent value 

L’Astronome non runner so put the money on the now sole selection Lord Protector who is now 40/1 

[Bronxie]

50 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Has been super boosted to 6/4  by 365 for anyone interested.

Denise knew 🙃

[fd1972uk]

Earlier double up, but Alyanaabi and dancing in Paris disasters.

Double on it ain't too and statuario,  and threw a free bet on Sure touch which also runs in 1515.

Couple bets on 1540, port fairy and Lava stream

[MGC]

340 c War Chimes 10/1 ew

[richard-westwood]

On 7/19/2024 at 10:22 AM, richard-westwood said:

Irish oaks 

Port fairy  358 0.49 

Lava stream 348 0.87 

War chimes. 343. 0.78 

You got to me. 340 1.62 

LAVA STREAM looks the overall Ew value bet at 10/1 but with 4 places on offer YOU GOT TO ME has massive  Ew value at 20/1 so also warrants a Ew bet 

1pt Ew both 

I've had a fiver Ew myself so nice doing business 😉