Racing chat -saturday 20th July

[richard-westwood]

Irish oaks 

Port fairy  358 0.49 

Lava stream 348 0.87 

War chimes. 343. 0.78 

You got to me. 340 1.62 

LAVA STREAM looks the overall Ew value bet at 10/1 but with 4 places on offer YOU GOT TO ME has massive  Ew value at 20/1 so also warrants a Ew bet 

1pt Ew both 

[The Brigadier]

Newbury 1.50

The first of seven races covered by ITV on a day lacking too much quality is this listed 1M 2F Steventon Stakes which has attracted a small field of just five. Owners Shadwell have a brace of runners including last year’s winner Al Aasy who is three from four at the track but we havn’t seen him for 287 days with Phantom Flight also heading here following a long break. Shadwell’s retained jockey Jim Crowley has presumably opted to ride the Owen Burrows three year old Alyanaabi who has finished a credible fifth in the Group one’s 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace Stakes this season and this is a drop in grade for the colt. He will be hard to beat even if he has been well found in the market.

 

ALYANAABI 2 points win @ 4/5 William Hill

 

Market Rasen 2.05

The first of three tricky handicaps shown by ITV from Market Rasen is this 2M 4 1/2F class 3 handicap hurdle which has a wide open look about it. Jonjo & Anthony O’Neill’s top weight Pyffo is chasing a hat trick so would have to be on the short list along with the already supported Flying Fortune from the very much in form Peter & Michael Bowen stable. One horse that does look over priced and is worthy of a small stakes each way bet is Alex Hales’s ten year old Breaking Waves. He’s not been the most consistent or genuine horses over the years but did nothing wrong when running out a 8L winner at Uttoxeter three weeks ago when seemingly unfancied at 28/1. He had the Skelton horse Clararose the best part of 12L behind him that day and despite now 8lb wrong with that horse at the weights can conform the form with a horse that is priced up considerably shorter.

 

BREAKING WAVES 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newbury 2.25

A field of ten run in this class 2 handicap over a trip of two miles and half a furlong. Hughie Morrison has been amongst the winners recently and saddles his Kyle Of Lochalsh with Hollie Doyle in the saddle. An easy winner in the mud at Salisbury on his penultimate run he proved at Royal Ascot that he can go on any terrain when running a fine third to Pledgeofallegiance in the Ascot Stakes Handicap on good to firm ground. He holds Temporize who was 5L behind that day and looks the one to be on in this trappy looking handicap in which bottom weight and recent Ascot winner Dancing In Paris looks a danger.

 

KYLE OF LOCHALSH 1 point win @ 9/2 BetVictor

 

Market Rasen 2.40

A maximum field of seventeen have declared for the £60,000 guaranteed Summer Handicap Hurdle run over 2M 125 yards. The race has a wide open look about it with many holding claims including Kerry Lee’s Black Poppy who we haven’t seen since last Boxing Day and David Pipe’s Manuelito towards the foot of the handicap but the selection is the Dan Skelton trained Mostly Sunny who has only had the four runs over timber so may have some more improvement to come. He’ll have to turn around his latest form when running second to the re-opposing Maxcel of Mel Rowley’s. Only a nose separated the pair at Uttoxeter three weeks ago and with a one pound turnaround in the weights may be able to gain his revenge in this valuable race.

 

MOSTLY SUNNY 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newbury 3.00

The Group 3 Hackwood Stakes has attracted ten runners this year running over a distance of 6F. A case can be made for several including three year old’s Karl Burke trained Elite Status and William Haggas’s Lake Forest but its the ultra consistent six year old Regional that is the pick. Trained by Ed Bethell he’s finished runner up in a Group 2 and Group 1 this season with his latest one length second to the Aussie sprinter Asfoora in KIng Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot a career best. That was over 5F but he wont mind stepping up a furlong here and with the ground drying all the time another big run is expected.

 

REGIONAL 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Market Rasen 3.15

Another maximum field of sixteen for the feature race of the afternoon at Market Rasen in the £100,000 guaranteed Summer Plate Handicap Chase run over 2M 5 1/2F. Like the previous two handicaps televised by ITV on the card the race has a wide open look about it. It may be worth chancing Peter & Michael Bowen’s old timer Francky Du Berlais who has an excellent record in this very race having won it in 2021 and 2022 on good ground but flopping last year when the rain scuppered his changes with the ground turning soft. He’s now racing off of a mark of 131 which is 8lb and 6lb lower than his two wins in this race so is without doubt well handicapped. He’s run third in handicap chases at Perth and Cartmel this season to prove his well being and although he’s not won since the victory in this race back in 2022 can run well each way under trainer’s son James Bowen.

 

FRANCKY DU BERLAIS 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Newbury 3.35

A decent sized field of nineteen run in the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. The best in at the weights here is actually Karl Burke’s Kaatibb who should run well along with Hugo Palmer’s It Ain’t Two under Oisin Murphy. Only two of the field have future group entries and I’ll chance the Group 2 Lowther Stakes entry Time For Sandals trained by the very much in form Harry Eustace at Newmarket. She made a winning racecourse debut at Kempton as a 10/1 chance last month beating a well bred and touted Andrew Balding favourite and having been sold for only 35,000 euros gets in here with a nice weight. She’s the each way pick although it may also be worth a small stakes each way saver on the other future group entered Caburn. Trained by Jack Jones he made a winning racecourse debut when beating the subsequent easy winner Brighton Boy at Salisbury last month and has since been given an entry in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York.

 

TIME FOR SANDALS 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

CABURN 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234