Racing chat -Friday 19th July

[Villa Chris]

6.35 Hamilton 

Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2)

Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1)

Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1)

Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win 

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

6.35 Hamilton 

Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2)

Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1)

Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1)

Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win 

I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully  form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 

635 ham 

Tiriac. 303  edge 0.47 

Spangled Mac. 299 0.90

Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 

First folio. 287 0.78 

Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ...

Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a  very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits 

That feels a better method and is still getting value ....

Edited July 19 by richard-westwood