Villa Chris Posted Thursday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:07 PM 6.35 Hamilton Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2) Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1) Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1) Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win black rabbit, Bedlam, yossa6133 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted Friday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:06 AM (edited) 8 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 6.35 Hamilton Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2) Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1) Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1) Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 635 ham Tiriac. 303 edge 0.47 Spangled Mac. 299 0.90 Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 First folio. 287 0.78 Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ... Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits That feels a better method and is still getting value .... Edited Friday at 04:19 AM by richard-westwood Bedlam, Bronxie, anaconda69 and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 05:32 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:32 AM 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 635 ham Tiriac. 303 edge 0.47 Spangled Mac. 299 0.90 Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 First folio. 287 0.78 Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ... Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits That feels a better method and is still getting value .... I’m doing my top 3 rated which includes form then seeing if I can get value. I’ll keep sticking with it at small stakes. Bedlam and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:37 AM Newmarket 7.35 Abate 25 11/2 ( my odds 6/1) Antiphon 23 9/2 ( my odds 7/1) Capo Vaticano 21 7/2 ( my odds 8/1) Regal Envoy 21 15/2 ( my odds 8/1) I’ll wait and see if any of them drift to my own odds . Abate and Regal Envoy are the likely two to drift to a betting price. Bedlam and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted Friday at 06:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:50 AM 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I've sat down and really given it a lot of thought .....you can rate a race and find value every time but if that doesn't go hand in hand with the horses actual chance to win then you'll always be running for a place and that's what seemed to be happening in my results ......so what I'm going to do is post the top 4 fully form rated .....then back the best value (nearest to their true price ) .....that way I should be getting form and value rather than just backing a value horse 635 ham Tiriac. 303 edge 0.47 Spangled Mac. 299 0.90 Manila Scouse. 292 0.82 First folio. 287 0.78 Fav is poor value .....the horse that seems to stand out is SPANGLED MAC who at 15/2 is almost his expected price so that's the bet Ew ..negative is he's had a long layoff (8monthes)...but that's offset by 5lb claim so I'll still play it ....1 PT Ew ... Could make a case for Manila Scouse Ew but I'm trying to find a method for a very strong "placed" horse whilst keeping outlay down to maximise profits That feels a better method and is still getting value .... Spangled has run well after a layoff before - close 4th at Royal Ascot last year following a 4 month break. I’d be more concerned about his draw tonight, personally. richard-westwood and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Friday at 08:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 08:54 AM Less time today but I’ll have a crack at the 6:35 for comparison purpose. Villa Chris, Bedlam and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Friday at 09:17 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:17 AM 7.27 down royal - whiskey sour 40/1 ew black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Friday at 10:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:38 AM # Horse Odds Rating Val 1 Spangled Mac 12 104.59 100.00 2 Tiriac 4.5 102.53 20.69 3 Magical Spirit 21 102.46 93.79 4 Manila Scouse 8.5 101.09 16.82 5 Jordan Electrics 6.5 99.80 6 Rocket Rodney 9.5 99.36 7 Silky Wilkie 15 98.41 8 Raatea 11 97.81 9 Londoner 9 97.33 10 First Folio 8.5 96.62 I'll back the top two on the value rating and the top 3 in forecasts. richard-westwood, Villa Chris and black rabbit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted Friday at 10:39 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:39 AM 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Less time today but I’ll have a crack at the 6:35 for comparison purpose. I see no value in this race whatsoever and unless the market changes markedly its one to leave alone for me. If forced i would have to go with silkie wilkie. 12/1 richard-westwood, black rabbit, harry_rag and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Friday at 10:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:49 AM 3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: I see no value in this race whatsoever and unless the market changes markedly its one to leave alone for me. If forced i would have to go with silkie wilkie. 12/1 You raise a point that had just made its way into my thinking. The 100 figure tells me which horse might be best value in the race but whether the race is worth betting on is a different matter. The best “raw” value number in this race is only in the 50s whereas they are sometimes 300 or more. There is probably a cut off point where it flips from “worth backing” to “best bet if you’ve got a free bet that needs using”. Sometimes the correct conclusion after rating a race will be “no bet”. Zilzalian and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted Friday at 11:12 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:12 AM (edited) 22 minutes ago, harry_rag said: You raise a point that had just made its way into my thinking. The 100 figure tells me which horse might be best value in the race but whether the race is worth betting on is a different matter. The best “raw” value number in this race is only in the 50s whereas they are sometimes 300 or more. There is probably a cut off point where it flips from “worth backing” to “best bet if you’ve got a free bet that needs using”. Sometimes the correct conclusion after rating a race will be “no bet”. Yes I've scrapped quite a few races due to not worth a bet ....say when all top 4 are below 0.50 ...frustrating when you've spent time rating but if that's what's needed to find value bets ...so be it Edited Friday at 11:13 AM by richard-westwood black rabbit and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Friday at 11:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:56 AM (edited) The Ferret 1 50 Nbry 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 Linwood 2 25 Nbry 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 -Won Punchbowel Flyer 2 50 Nott 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Arecibo 7 55 Pon 1/4oth of a pt ew 25/1 Edited Friday at 02:52 PM by black rabbit anaconda69, LEE-GRAYS, Antonio Margarettii and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:12 PM 315 h Baba Reza 8s ew On a good mark, dropped into c5, wind op1, good ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:44 PM won 17/2 350 h Sea Legend 7/2 richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 03:33 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:33 PM 9 hours ago, Villa Chris said: Newmarket 7.35 Abate 25 11/2 ( my odds 6/1) Antiphon 23 9/2 ( my odds 7/1) Capo Vaticano 21 7/2 ( my odds 8/1) Regal Envoy 21 15/2 ( my odds 8/1) I’ll wait and see if any of them drift to my own odds . Abate and Regal Envoy are the likely two to drift to a betting price. The race above doesn’t look like it’s going to represent any value so will be left alone . I’ll be playing my cards in the 7.55 at Pontefract instead which offers some good value. Dakota Gold 28 odds 10/1 (my odds 11/2) Wen Moon 26 odds 3/1 ( my odds 13/2) Hiya Maite 26 odds 16/1 ( my odds 13/2) Dakota and Hiya Maite represent very good value so will play 1 point each . black rabbit and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:54 PM 500 h Autumn Rose 9/2 Should come on from lto run after break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antonio Margarettii Posted Friday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:58 PM (edited) 5.00 haydock - liberty mountain 14/1 ew Edited Friday at 03:58 PM by Antonio Margarettii Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 05:39 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:39 PM 21 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 6.35 Hamilton Jordan Electrics 26 9/2 (my odds 13/2) Silky Wilkie 24 11/1 (my odds 7/1) Spangled Mac 23 13/2 ( my odds 7/1) Silky Wilkie the value bet 2 points win Got the first two right with ratings but unfortunately the value bet Silky Wilkie beaten half a length by Jordan Electrics who’s having a great year so far. harry_rag, Bronxie and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 PM 645 p First Dynasty 25s ew Orr rides Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:47 PM Frist Dynasty loose 652 dr Enough Already 14s ew new stable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:08 PM Well I'd have been better making numbers up today! It is a reminder (as with my footy betting) that sometimes the conclusion is "no bet" after you've studied a game or race. In particular, there's a difference between a race where the top 3 are clear of the field and post a big value number compared to a scenario like today where about 6 index points cover the top 7 and the value ratings are modest. If I'm going to carry on along similar lines I probably need to draw a line that selections need to get over to be a bet. Zilzalian and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 06:19 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 06:19 PM (edited) 11 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Well I'd have been better making numbers up today! It is a reminder (as with my footy betting) that sometimes the conclusion is "no bet" after you've studied a game or race. In particular, there's a difference between a race where the top 3 are clear of the field and post a big value number compared to a scenario like today where about 6 index points cover the top 7 and the value ratings are modest. If I'm going to carry on along similar lines I probably need to draw a line that selections need to get over to be a bet. Wise words regarding what are considered strong bets and real worth while value . Because I’m notepad and paper I just pick two races I like the look of them rate them. Computerised would make it easier and give me more variety and races to look at. Edited Friday at 06:20 PM by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 PM tatatio 8.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted Friday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:54 PM twoforthegutter 8.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGC Posted Friday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:55 PM (edited) 755 p Ventura Express 11s ew In form Edited Friday at 06:56 PM by MGC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted Friday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:57 PM yippee 8.25 ew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted Friday at 07:54 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 07:54 PM (edited) 4 hours ago, Villa Chris said: The race above doesn’t look like it’s going to represent any value so will be left alone . I’ll be playing my cards in the 7.55 at Pontefract instead which offers some good value. Dakota Gold 28 odds 10/1 (my odds 11/2) Wen Moon 26 odds 3/1 ( my odds 13/2) Hiya Maite 26 odds 16/1 ( my odds 13/2) Dakota and Hiya Maite represent very good value so will play 1 point each . Hiya Maite second . Two seconds today at 11/1 and 16/1 so close but not close enough. Wen Moon was third too for the ratings . -12 Edited Friday at 07:54 PM by Villa Chris Bronxie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Friday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:58 PM 2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Hiya Maite second . Two seconds today at 11/1 and 16/1 so close but not close enough. Wen Moon was third too for the ratings . -12 unlucky chris 'small margins ' be lucky richard-westwood and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted Saturday at 09:27 AM Share Posted Saturday at 09:27 AM 21 hours ago, black rabbit said: The Ferret 1 50 Nbry 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 Linwood 2 25 Nbry 1/40th of a pt ew 20/1 -Won Punchbowel Flyer 2 50 Nott 1/40th of a pt ew 28/1 Arecibo 7 55 Pon 1/4oth of a pt ew 25/1 ''Linwood" impressive imo anaconda69 and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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