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Wimbledon 2024


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Posted (edited)

Badosa - Vekic over 2.5 sets @2.27 YES 
Bautista-Agut +2.5 sets @1.80 NO 
Keys - 1.5 sets @1.95 NO

Raducanu - 1.5 sets @1.55 NO
Gauff - 1.5 sets @1.77 NO
Salisbury /Watson @1.55 YES
 

GL You all.

 

Edited by timovk
2-4
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Posted (edited)

Mpetshi Pericard @1.97 NO
Fritz @2.55 YES
Djokovic - 1.5 sets @1.64 YES
Svitolina + Collins @2.17 NO
Heliovaara/Patten @1.56 YES

GL You all. 

Edited by timovk
3-3
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Bet of the day for me is Putintseva to beat Ostapenko. Putintseva has not lost a match on grass this season. Played 8, won 8 which is a real outlier in woman's tennis.  Her form has been spectacular, just like her demolition (and I don't use the word lightly), of Swaitek. She is playing terrific tennis, and is with Navarro probably one of the 2 best left in the draw on current form.

I think Krejcikova also gets beaten by Collins. She actually has a decent game which works very well against lesser ranked players (say from 30+), but when she plays top ranked players, their game/mentality just over powers her. I think the stop start nature of this game, combined with Collins aggressive style means 1 way traffic here, for an easish Collins win.

Having played tennis from the age of 5 (my dad was a coach), I have a lot of injuries from the game. Fractured ankle, ruptured knee ligaments (ACL replacement), 3 cartlidge clean ups, ruptured achilles I can say that a minor intrusion athroscopy is a small thing. Hell, they are doing hip replacements today while the patient is awake. Orthroscopy is like a pin prick. WIth Djoko having that done he would have been back to his aged version of 100% in about 2 weeks. And with the 24/7 treatment and expert physio he is almost at 100%. 

My feeling is that if the real, focused Rune shows up he will beat Djoko. Rune has strange behaviour on the court. He loses focus sometimes, and drifts off. But he has fantastic talent. Small bet on the outright Rune win here. Watch out for the Djoko 'jungle juice'  when he starts drinking for that unmarked white cylinder container.

 

I am not convinced Rybakina is 100% fit. Only played 5 grass court matches, and withdrew against Azarenka, Kalinskaya getting back close to her best, playing 8 matches on grass , winning 7 times (2 opponents quit). Thrashed Azarenka, Bouzkova, Samsonova and was beating Sabalenka 5-1 when Sabalenka quit. For me Rybakina way underpriced here.  Kalinskaya to win.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Rybakina not showing much. Movement is quite poor. Kalinskaya needs to move her around and she wins here.

As soon as I commit they immediately reveal an injury and lose 12 points in a row. Amazing.

Omg she's just given up.

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, neilovan said:

Bet of the day for me is Putintseva to beat Ostapenko. Putintseva has not lost a match on grass this season. Played 8, won 8 which is a real outlier in woman's tennis.  Her form has been spectacular, just like her demolition (and I don't use the word lightly), of Swaitek. She is playing terrific tennis, and is with Navarro probably one of the 2 best left in the draw on current form.

 

Lol. Surely that has to be one of the most bizarre matches I have ever seen. Ostapenko is wilder than Tarzan. She could swing through the Jungle from vine to vine or fall out of the trees like a sack of potatoes. Today vine-to-vine ... tomorrow  POTATOES!

 

Making Zverev and Fritz look like they are moonballing each other.

Heaven only knows what;s going on there. Sorry for my earlier post but my intentions were good.

Edited by neilovan
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3 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Lol. Surely that has to be one of the most bizarre matches I have ever seen. Ostapenko is wilder than Tarzan. She could swing through the Jungle from vine to vine or fall out of the trees like a sack of potatoes. Today vine-to-vine ... tomorrow  POTATOES!

Heaven only knows what;s going on there. Sorry for my earlier post but my intentions were good.

That's Ostapenko for sure. Personally, I wasn't that impressed by Putintseva in the last round. For me, she won more because of how poorly Swiatek played and all the unforced errors she made rather than through playing spectacularly well herself. This is all after-timing of course, but in pedigree terms Ostapenko is the better player and her career shows that. Form is temporary, class is permanent. At the prices I think Ostapenko was the play as I'm sure she'd have been shorter if the match had been an earlier round and certainly if Putintseva wasn't coming into it on the back of beating Swiatek - which looks a much better result than it is as Swiatek is average at best on grass as her game isn't suited to being rushed.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Torque said:

That's Ostapenko for sure. Personally, I wasn't that impressed by Putintseva in the last round. For me, she won more because of how poorly Swiatek played and all the unforced errors she made rather than through playing spectacularly well herself. This is all after-timing of course, but in pedigree terms Ostapenko is the better player and her career shows that. Form is temporary, class is permanent. At the prices I think Ostapenko was the play as I'm sure she'd have been shorter if the match had been an earlier round and certainly if Putintseva wasn't coming into it on the back of beating Swiatek - which looks a much better result than it is as Swiatek is average at best on grass as her game isn't suited to being rushed.

I watched quite a few Ostapenko matches and her form so up and down. Most of the time an opponent is able to weather the storm and then she goes into left field. 

Edited by neilovan
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2 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I watched quite a few Ostapenko matches and her form so up and down. Most of the time an opponent is able to weather the storm and then she goes into left field. 

For her to win in straights and without much drama is a surprise I agree. I did think Putintseva might get back into it in the second but she couldn't take any break point chances.

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6 minutes ago, Torque said:

For her to win in straights and without much drama is a surprise I agree. I did think Putintseva might get back into it in the second but she couldn't take any break point chances.

I think Putintseva won 1st game of 2nd set with a break, and then immediately lost her serve (not sure). I'm still in shock.

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Emma Navarro to beat Jasmine Paolini at 1.53 with William Hill

Navarro showed that it's only a matter of time until she becomes a member of the top 10, and she has every chance of getting closer to that goal by beating Paolini here. She has a 3-0 record against her, so there are no match-up demons here, and her soft power will always have an edge over the Italian's tenacity on faster surfaces.

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Posted (edited)

Sinner - Medvedev over 3.5 sets @1.64 YES 
Vekic + Navarro @2.05 NO 
Hsieh/Mertens @1.79 YES
Siniakova/Towsend @1.95 YES
Salisbury/Watson @1.57 YES

GL You all. 

Edited by timovk
4-1
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Elina Svitolina to beat Elena Rybakina at 3.40 with Bet365

Rybakina is a solid fav in this one, no doubt, but 3.40 seems to be a bit too much given how well Svitolina played in the previous two rounds and how motivated she seems to be. Rybakina hasn't faced an opponent of Svitolina's level yet, and I'm not confident that she'll handle the situation without issues. 2.70 would be tops for me here.

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Djokov never had such an easy run to the semis. 3 marshmallows, Rune who played poorly and then a walk over.

Edited by neilovan
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B.Krejcikova/J.Paolini - Under 22.5 games at 1.83 with Bet365

Should be quite some nerves from both, and that means the under pick should offer some value. That's how it often goes with these W finals with "GS unproven" players, and I can see it going this way today as well.

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Novak Djokovic at 1.70 with William Hill

Djokovic has made it to yet another finals, but boy, he's had a cakewalk route here, having faced essentially no elite opposition. Rune didn't turn up, etc. Alcaraz is battle-tested here, and should be a fairly big fav imo.

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Alcaraz - Djokovic over 4 sets @1.75 Marathonbet NO

IMO this match will be 4-5 sets battle. Probably 5 sets like last year. I'm with Nole, but odds are too low to bet. 

GL You all. 

 

Edited by timovk
Wimbledon 21-19
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2 hours ago, Robinnho said:

Wimbledon ATP Final

Alcaraz vs Djoker

Needless to introduce the 2 superstars in tennis.

Djoker had a knee operation about one month ago and is at war with the crowd and media so he will have the lesser support. 

Alcaraz to win ATP Wimbledon 2024

Alcaraz won 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(7-4)

A new "BIG 3" is born in winning the RG and Wimbledon in the same year! - 3rd player to do so.

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