Euro 2024 Antepost Predictions and Build Up

[harry_rag]

Thought I'd start a thread as it's only just over 3 weeks away and I've just started my antepost "portfolio"! Above are the outright and top goalscorer odds.

[harry_rag]

So far I've had 5 points e/w on Italy outright at 18/1 and Lukaku top goalscorer at 28/1.

Italy are still 18/1 in one place and on the exchange (or if you can boost the 16/1 with Lads) Lukaku seems to be shortening; still 25/1 in places but a bit shorter on the exchange.

I read a preview on the main Golden Boot contenders and thought Lukaku wasn't bad at the price. Another that looks worth a second look is Dovbyk (Ukraine) at 3 figure odds but, so far, I haven't been able to get on at quite the best price or place terms.

I backed Italy when they won the last one based on Kevin Pullein tipping them in the RP. They might merit being bigger odds this time based on form but I still think the argument of backing one of the "usual suspects" at a bigger price holds water. There's so much luck in tournament football that qualifying and friendly form is of little relevance. There's a few who feel too short for me above Italy in the betting and plenty at bigger odds I can't see going all the way. At the price I'm happy to go with the Italians getting their act together when it matters (and, hopefully, enjoying a bit of the rub of the green).

Anyone else got any thoughts or had any bets yet?

[Offramp]

Bet365 doesn't seem to have the odds yet. I haven't put any bets on yet, but I'm thinking about the Euros. Here are some thoughts.

I think England might get to the semi-finals, with a load of luck.

A very good outsider is TURKEY. In Germany there will be a HUGE Turkish support. The Moroccans in 2022 went a long way (World Cup) and I think the Turkish could be semi-finalists.

Have to say that I think that the GERMANS will be in the final. I think the other finalists could be Spain or Portugal. 

I simply do not like France. They often have TERRIBLE tournaments. I remember they were defending World Champions but did not score a single goal.

A great semi-final will be Portugal v Spain, and the dram of penalties.

This is just a "scratchpad" of my thoughts over the month.

[ThunderDan9]

I like your reasoning for Italy.

I havent't researched deeper, but with a similar reasoning Croatia might be a good pick at around 40/1. They are a traditionally good "tournament team", and while their current roster is maybe not so spectacular individually as previous Croatian squads, they still managed to reach the Finals of the UEFA Nations League.

[Offramp]

I magonna crack a luif when I saw the odds for England: 3/1 FAVOURITES!!

When I am in France I put on bets on the Irish horses and get really good odds.

I reckon that IN GERMANY the odds on England will be about 7/1.

Who are going to put money on England to win outright?

[Offramp]

I  know a load of people think that France will win, in Germany, AND Mbappé will win the Golden Boot. I think he is overrated.

I can visualize French team, sitting on the grass after the penalties, the cameras having EXTREME CLOSE-UPS of Mr Mbappé crying after he had just missed a penalty that hit the corner flag. France losing in the semifinals, or even the quarterfinals.

[Offramp]

Mind you, the French had a really good goal-scorer, a great striker. Just Fontaine.  He has no first name.😝😁

[Offramp]

Here is a reminder of the French in 1998. They were hosts, they had no problems at all winning. They beat Brazil 3-0 in the final.

BUT THEN IN 2002 in S. Korea/ Japan...POOR SHOW!

The French failed to score a goal against the heavyweights Denmark, Senegal & Uruguay. France ended ROOTED TO the bottom of the group table. They went home with ONE POINT!!!

Faîtes-moi un faveur mec!!

[harry_rag]

Totals markets up on SX. Worth seeing if any of the numbers look too high or low; even if you don't spread bet there will be fixed odds over/under markets up in due course,

[harry_rag]

Just noticed I've still got the RP preview for 2020 so here's some updated numbers relating to the last 6 Euros.

• Fate of the favourites - only one winner (Spain as 3/1 co-favs with Germany in 2012). Runners up 3 times (including England as co-favs last time). Semis and quarters in the other two.
• Odds of the winners - 3 in single figures. Italy were 11/1 and we've had 22/1 Portugal and 100/1 Greece.
• Odds of the runners up - all single figures barring 14/1 Italy in 2012
• Odds of the losing semi finalists - in all bar one year we've had 1 at single figure odds and 1 in double digits. Working backwards we've had Denmark at 28/1, Wales 80/1, Portugal 20/1, Russia 28/1 and Turkey 50/1, Czech Rep 14/1, Portugal 25/1
• Teams to make the last 4 more than once are Portugal (4 times), Italy, Spain and Germany (3 times) and France and the Netherlands twice.

[_Ghost_]

Here's each teams record v the Top 100 FIFA ranked teams since international football resumed in late 2020...

..and some general Euro stats...

I'm in the process of fine-tuning my ratings and adding a few more markets to my model - hoping to release prices early next week

[harry_rag]

Hope no-one saw the post I just deleted. Got mixed up researching team likely to concede most goals and realised the betting market was for team to score fewest! 
Did some great research but, unfortunately, for a market that is probably not being offered!

[tonythepaint]

3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Hope no-one saw the post I just deleted. Got mixed up researching team likely to concede most goals and realised the betting market was for team to score fewest! 
Did some great research but, unfortunately, for a market that is probably not being offered!

That looked interesting as well.

Was just going to re-read it.😆

[harry_rag]

42 minutes ago, tonythepaint said:

That looked interesting as well.

Was just going to re-read it.😆

IF anyone offers the market then it's definitely worth looking for a decent price about a team who you can see getting out of the group over the obvious no-hopers. I was hoping for "most goals conceded" as opposed to most scored but just saw "least goals scored" and went off on one with it. 

Let's say I've had a few bets based on the erroneous conclusions but luckily to very small stakes! I guess the team that scores least goals is more likely to be one that doesn't get out of the group!

[_Ghost_]

18 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hope no-one saw the post I just deleted. Got mixed up researching team likely to concede most goals and realised the betting market was for team to score fewest! 
Did some great research but, unfortunately, for a market that is probably not being offered!

.... this is actually one of the markets in my model... here's a sneak peak... all 100% prices, be interested to hear who the selection would have been

[harry_rag]

2 minutes ago, _Ghost_ said:

.... this is actually one of the markets in my model... here's a sneak peak... all 100% prices, be interested to hear who the selection would have been

 

Austria at 16/1, Switzerland 20/1, Turkey 22/1 and Denmark 28/1 were what caught my eye. 

I'm less enamoured of having actually backed them at those prices to score least goals but it's only around a tenner wasted and will teach me to "read the questions" rather than just see what I want to see. None any better than fair compared to your take but academic unless anyone actually offers the market!

 

[harry_rag]

It's worth looking out for bets relating to the number of games going to extra time or penalties as the bookies seem to underestimate how many knockout ties end up in a stalemate. I make it just shy of 38% in the last 6 Euros and World Cups (12 tournaments and 148 games excluding 3rd place games as there isn't one in the Euros).

In terms of pens you could make a case for >1.5 at 5/6 Sky Bet or >2.5 11/10 Hills. There have been 2 or more in 8 out of 8 tournaments that included a round of 16 (so 15 knockout games) and 3 or more in 6 of the 8. 3 of the 4 Euros that only involved 7 KO games still saw 2 shootouts.

Hills go evens for >4 games to go to extra time which isn't bad given that it's landed in 6 of those 8 tournaments. Sky Bet, though, offer the same price for an >3.5 line which was covered in all 8. 3 of the other 4 Euros I looked at saw 3 from just the 7 games.

I think you'd do well to find many better value bets on the competition, whether antepost or on individual games.

[_Ghost_]

8 hours ago, harry_rag said:

It's worth looking out for bets relating to the number of games going to extra time or penalties as the bookies seem to underestimate how many knockout ties end up in a stalemate. I make it just shy of 38% in the last 6 Euros and World Cups (12 tournaments and 148 games excluding 3rd place games as there isn't one in the Euros).

In terms of pens you could make a case for >1.5 at 5/6 Sky Bet or >2.5 11/10 Hills. There have been 2 or more in 8 out of 8 tournaments that included a round of 16 (so 15 knockout games) and 3 or more in 6 of the 8. 3 of the 4 Euros that only involved 7 KO games still saw 2 shootouts.

Hills go evens for >4 games to go to extra time which isn't bad given that it's landed in 6 of those 8 tournaments. Sky Bet, though, offer the same price for an >3.5 line which was covered in all 8. 3 of the other 4 Euros I looked at saw 3 from just the 7 games.

I think you'd do well to find many better value bets on the competition, whether antepost or on individual games.

Here's another sneak peak of my model...

[_Ghost_]

..and here's the stats (D represents match drawn after 90 mins ie went to extra time)

[harry_rag]

#	Name	Team	Goals	Odds	Place	BF	3	4	5	6
1	Mbappe	France	3.45	6	2.25	6.4	1.49	2.21	3.77	7.36
2	Kane	England	3.35	6.5	2.375	6.8	1.54	2.32	4.06	8.12
3	Ronaldo	Portugal	2.875	15	4.5	15	1.82	3.08	6.09	13.92
4	Lukaku	Belgium	2.375	21	6	20	2.36	4.63	10.78	29.25
5	Havertz	Germany	1.85	34	9.25	30	3.54	8.56	24.92	85.19
6	Bellingham	England	1.75	19	5.5	21	3.91	9.92	30.39	109.49
7	Fernandes	Portugal	1.7	67	17.5	55	4.12	10.73	33.77	125.01
8	Giroud	France	1.6	29	8	27	4.62	12.69	42.23	165.55
9	Gundogan	Germany	1.6	67	17.5	70	4.62	12.69	42.23	165.55
10	Foden	England	1.55	29	8	30	4.91	13.87	47.56	192.16
11	Griezmann	France	1.55	29	8	46	4.91	13.87	47.56	192.16
12	Fullkrug	Germany	1.55	41	11	32	4.91	13.87	47.56	192.16
13	Schick	Czech Rep	1.4	67	17.5	65	6.01	18.61	70.16	312.39
14	Mitrovic	Serbia	1.4	67	17.5	130	6.01	18.61	70.16	312.39
15	Hojlund	Denmark	1.35	41	11	46	6.47	20.73	80.84	372.70
16	De Bruyne	Belgium	1.3	67	17.5	110	7.00	23.20	93.78	448.31
17	Wirtz	Germany	1.3	67	17.5	65	7.00	23.20	93.78	448.31
18	Ramos	Portugal	1.3	41	11	48	7.00	23.20	93.78	448.31
19	Dovbyk	Ukraine	1.3	81	21	55	7.00	23.20	93.78	448.31
20	Musiala	Germany	1.25	41	11	70	7.60	26.13	109.60	544.04
21	Gakpo	Netherlands	1.25	41	11	60	7.60	26.13	109.60	544.04
22	Saka	England	1.2	34	9.25	50	8.30	29.61	129.10	666.57
23	Chiesa	Italy	1.2	67	17.5	80	8.30	29.61	129.10	666.57
24	Scamacca	Italy	1.2	51	13.5	55	8.30	29.61	129.10	666.57
25	Trossard	Belgium	1.05	67	17.5	160	11.15	45.03	222.95	1309.74
26	Depay	Netherlands	1.05	51	13.5	55	11.15	45.03	222.95	1309.74
27	Jota	Portugal	1.05	67	17.5	60	11.15	45.03	222.95	1309.74
28	Doku	Belgium	1	151	38.5	160	12.45	52.66	273.24	1682.98
29	Kramaric	Croatia	1	151	38.5	100	12.45	52.66	273.24	1682.98

A slightly random take on the top goalscorer market! This (unexpectedly) flags Ronaldo up as the best value. This breaks down as follows.

His goals expectation (based on Spreadex's price for his total goals) is 2.875 which has him 3rd behind Mbappe and Kane. He's 14/1 to be top goalscorer which gives place odds of 7/2 at a quarter of the odds. (You might get a 5th for 5 places.) Then you've got the rough "fair" odds for him to score at least 3, 4, 5 and 6 goals. He's the only player whose price is better than the fair odds for him to score 6 goals. There's another half dozen players whose price is at least better than the odds for them to score 5 or more goals (highlighted in green) and whose place odds are also better than their fair odds for 4 or more.

The reasoning here is that you'd need at least 3 goals for a place (but would probably end up in a dead heat/reduced odds scenario with just 3) so ideally 4 and you'd need at least 5 goals to win. It's not entirely scientific and has been done fairly quickly but the highlighted players are worth a look and the further the odds fall short of that 5 or more goals number the less appealing a bet would be.

Any more thoughts on the market based on simple logic and knowledge of the players would be most welcome! I'm reasonably happy with my Lukaku bet at 28s at least!

[_Ghost_]

[harry_rag]

Unibet up with loads of team markets (including player goals etc) that are worth a closer look. I've done 2 so far.

Fernandes top Portugal goalscorer at 7/1

Rodri top Spain goalscorer 25/1 (same price in a few places)

Small stake on the latter, saw it tipped but can't say I've got that much enthusiasm for it. Possible pen taker. Had seen the 7/1 Bruno elsewhere but couldn't get on so was glad when they matched it. Ronnie the favourite (surprise, surprise) but I like Bruno at the odds. Scored twice last night.

[harry_rag]

Kane and Lukaku each to score 3+ goals and Sesko to score 2+ goals at 11/1 with Sky Bet.

This caught my eye so decided to take a closer look. My (admittedly tenuous) takes on the true odds for Kane and Lukaku to score 3 or more are 1.54 and 2.36 which would require 3.3 for the Sesko element to hit fair odds of 11/1. Given his recent club and country form that seems fairly generous, though it's worth bearing in mind that Slovenia are only expected to score around 3 goals. He's scored 10 goals in his 9 starts for them over the last 2 seasons which equates to 34.5% of their goals.

It feels like a bet on the market having slightly underestimated the prospect of Sesko scoring more than one goal and, at the price, ticks the bet as a decent interest bet as it gives me an interest in 3 teams' fortunes.

[DrO]

He (Šeško) will for sure score against us (Serbia)..every team score against Serbia..for fun..we can't keep clean sheet against any opponent.

[yossa6133]

Surprised Mbappe is as big as 5/1 to top score, thought he'd be half that. Toughish group maybe? Backed him at the WC and there's no Messi to make it interesting this time. No doubt they will beat us in the Semi's if we make it that far. Good bet for me at 5's.

[harry_rag]

53 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Surprised Mbappe is as big as 5/1 to top score, thought he'd be half that. Toughish group maybe? Backed him at the WC and there's no Messi to make it interesting this time. No doubt they will beat us in the Semi's if we make it that far. Good bet for me at 5's.

I'd probably lay him if he was as short as 5/2, brilliant as he is. Given that he'll need to score at least 5, probably 6, goals to be clear winner that would be too short. You'd have bad luck in front of goal, injury or him (and France) having a stinker on your side. 5/1 looks about right to me. Not big enough for me to back him but certainly in the zone for being a reasonable bet if you fancy him.

How have you backed him out of interest, top goalscorer or Golden Boot?

Here's the biennial reminder of the difference between markets. Golden Boot is an official award decided by most goals, then assists, then least minutes played. There can only be one winner. Top goalscorer means most goals so could end in a two (or three plus) way deadheat. If your fancy gets quite a lot of assists then GB might be best, if they rarely get any then TS might be preferable. If in doubt maybe split your stake! Best price should be the first criteria but be aware of which market you're betting on. 

All firms are just listed as top scorer on Oddschecker but at least Sky Bet, Paddy and the Exchange are Golden Boot. The latter worth bearing in mind if you end up in a potential laying off position.

[yossa6133]

I wasn't even aware of the difference! Unfortunately mine is on the top scorer market and the cash out sucks, so I'll just have to hope he does it.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, yossa6133 said:

I wasn't even aware of the difference! Unfortunately mine is on the top scorer market and the cash out sucks, so I'll just have to hope he does it.

It's pretty much a coin toss really, just that Mbappe's not the worst player to be on if assists come into play. That said, "top scorer" guarantees you a return if there's a tie for most goals whereas Golden Boot goes to assists to find a winner. If there's a tie you can guarantee there will be moans from people who get nothing back on one player because they bet in the GB market and from those who get a partial return on the other because they bet on TS!

[monty63]

On 5/29/2024 at 2:59 PM, harry_rag said:

It's worth looking out for bets relating to the number of games going to extra time or penalties as the bookies seem to underestimate how many knockout ties end up in a stalemate. I make it just shy of 38% in the last 6 Euros and World Cups (12 tournaments and 148 games excluding 3rd place games as there isn't one in the Euros).

In terms of pens you could make a case for >1.5 at 5/6 Sky Bet or >2.5 11/10 Hills. There have been 2 or more in 8 out of 8 tournaments that included a round of 16 (so 15 knockout games) and 3 or more in 6 of the 8. 3 of the 4 Euros that only involved 7 KO games still saw 2 shootouts.

Hills go evens for >4 games to go to extra time which isn't bad given that it's landed in 6 of those 8 tournaments. Sky Bet, though, offer the same price for an >3.5 line which was covered in all 8. 3 of the other 4 Euros I looked at saw 3 from just the 7 games.

I think you'd do well to find many better value bets on the competition, whether antepost or on individual games.

well skybet is into 8/11 hope you were on at even harry rag

[harry_rag]

4 minutes ago, monty63 said:

well skybet is into 8/11 hope you were on at even harry rag

Yeah, I was waiting for the prices to go up on that one so I went nice and early. Probably my biggest fixed odds stake in years but I'm viewing it as spread across 15 KO games.