Racing Chat - Saturday 6th April

[The Brigadier]

Kempton 1.30

With Kelso unfortunately lost to the elements, the first of seven races on a rescheduled ITV schedule is this 6F novices stakes which has attracted ten runners and looks rather open. Clive Cox’s Sky Warrior is the only winner in the contest but a 7lb penalty for that Doncaster win last July may be his undoing here. Newmarket based trainer James Horton has had a horrendous year with his main owner John Dance leaving the game and he can strike with his Acclamation three year old Grandlad who gave odds on backers a scare when chasing home the 82 rated Run Boy Run at Newcastle on his racecourse debut last month and can be competitive and hopefully win at the second time of asking. There are others with chances including Harry Eustace’s Harry Did and Hugo Palmer’s Auric.

 

GRANDLAD 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Kempton 2.05

Ten go to post for the 1M Virgin Bet Snowdrop Fillies’Stakes, a listed race for fillies and mares only. There’s no stand out bet in the contest with the two highest rated horses being Mystic Pearl and Choisya from the William Haggas and Simon & Ed Crisford Newmarket stables respectively. We haven’t seen the latter for 138 days when she defeated the re-opposing Julia Augusta over course and distance and is maybe the each way value in a race where several can be given a chance. The Crisford’s have won with three of their last ten runners so arrive in good form and as long as the chestnut filly is ready to go can enhance her good track record which reads 21. The Irish raider from the Joseph O’Brien stable Adelaise has to be respected and may be the biggest danger to the selection.

 

CHOISYA 1 point each way @ 9/2 Coral 1/5th 123

 

 

Kempton 2.40

The Virgin Bet Roseberry Handicap is a class 2 contest run over 1M 2F and 219 yards and has attracted a decent sized field of fourteen. Andrew Balding’s Old Harrovian is an interesting runner making his handicap debut having won both starts on a synthetic surface at Wolverhampton and Lingfield although has been priced accordingly. The Hollie Doyle ridden Intinso looked good when winning at Wolverhampton last March and despite a rise of 8lb can be competitive here and looks the pick. The grey appeared to show improved form there, his first since being gelded and from a favourable draw can run a big race.

 

INTINSO 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Curragh 2.55

Nine line up for this Group 3 Alleged Stakes which will be run on very soft ground. Last year’s Ballysax winner White Birch will have to be on the short list although his trainer John Joseph Murphy has only had one runner this year (back in January)and there would have to be questions over his fitness even if he did win first time out last season. In contrast we know that Joseph O’Brien has his string forward winning with 15 of his 46 runners this year at a win to run ratio of 33% and his representative here is his four year old filly Maxux who could be quite smart. A winner of two of her four starts as a three year old (she was unraced as a juvenile), she finished her season by taking a Group 3 at Fairyhouse by 4 1/4L from the right horses and although she has to prove herself on very soft ground appeals as one to be with.

 

MAXUX 1 point each way 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Kempton 3.15

The 2M Virgin Bet Queen’s Prize Handicap has attracted a field of fourteen and has a very open look about it. Top weight Novel Legend has claims although I would like to see his trainer James Fanshawe in better form (although he did have a winner on Thursday) whilst the other market leader Sweet Fantasy will find these conditions rather different than when winning two juvenile hurdles in the mud this winter for his up and coming trainer James Owen. The pick for me has to be the bottom weight, Circuit Breaker. Formerly trained by Ralph Beckett he ticks many boxes here as he has won fresh before, stays the trip, handles the surface having won over course and distance and likes to be ridden forward with the plum draw in stall 1 to adopt those tactics. The booking of James Doyle is positive and this Jonjo O’Neill trained four year old looks excellent each way value having joined O’Neill for 260,000 guineas last October.

 

CIRCUIT BREAKER 2 points each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Chelmsford 3.30

An intriguing race for a Saturday afternoon at Chelmsford is the valuable Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes, a trial (usually in name only) for the Kentucky Derby. The fact that Aidan O’Brien sends over Capulet and maybe more interesting that Ryan Moore is here to ride points to the son of Justify as the most likely winner. A winner of a Dundalk maiden on his racecourse debut last August he followed that up with places in Group 2’s at Leopardstown and Newmarket the following month. As with, it seems, all of Aidan’s three year olds he has a stack of future group entries which include the 2000 Guineas and the English and Irish Derby. His main danger appears to be last weekend’s listed Burradon Stakes winner Cuban Tiger who had another of today’s opposition Orne (5lb better off for 3 1/4L and racing in first time cheek pieces) behind. This should be going to Ballydoyle and Capulet.

 

CAPULET 2 points win @ 11/10 William Hill

 

Kempton 3.45

Just five have declared for this Virgin Bet Fillies’ Conditions Stakes and we have a very warm favourite here in the Charlie Appleby trained Devoted Queen. She looked a smart sort when winning well on her racecourse debut at Newmarket on soft ground last October and this KIngman filly will be hard to beat and could even force her way into a run in the first classic of the season , the 1000 Guineas in a months time for which she is currently a 25/1 chance. She’s obviously been well found in the market here however but should be winning with the Richard Hughes trained Les Bleus looking the biggest danger having kept good company as a juvenile and placing in group company.

 

[Darran]

Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card.

Race 2

This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance.

At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface.

Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies

Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies

Race 7

The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m. 

The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here.

I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365

Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies

Race 8

The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value.

With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana.

I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though.

Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes

Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill

Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)

[maxironchin]

15.15 Kempton

Circuit Breaker 2pt EW

@The Brigadier sums this up nicely

Course/distance winner picked up by Jonjo for good reasons. Has great potential and seems well weighted. Represents good value at the price.

[Baldori]

Grandlad at 1.30 Kempton looks promising. Choisya at 2.05 is solid for each-way. Intinso could surprise at 2.40. Maxux is worth a shot at Curragh. Circuit Breaker for each-way in the 3.15 at Kempton. Capulet's got the edge at Chelmsford's 3.30. Devoted Queen is hard to beat in Kempton's 3.45, but Les Bleus might challenge.

[richard-westwood]

205 kemp 

Choisya  8.5 9/2 

Julia Augusta  8.2 15/2 

6pts top rated ....2pt Ew other 

[richard-westwood]

240 kemp 

Cemhaan has a fairly big rating 8.7 for the class .....he has a tricky race to contend with but at 16/1 I'm prepared to go Ew as he looks very overpriced 

5pts Ew 16/1 willh 4 places 

[black rabbit]

Watchya                                                4 55 Kem/            1/40th  of  pt ew    28/1

Captain Wierzba                                  2 40 Kem/            1/40th of a pt ew   33/1

Bergamasco                                         3 30 Chl/               1/40th of a pt ew   20/1

 

 

 

P/L     + 177.15pts

Edited April 6 by black rabbit

[Hotspur88]

19 hours ago, Darran said:

Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card.

Race 2

This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance.

At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface.

Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies

Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies

Race 7

The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m. 

The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here.

I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365

Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies

Race 8

The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value.

With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana.

I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though.

Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes

Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill

Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)

Fantastic selections 👏🏼

[Darran]

3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Fantastic selections 👏🏼

Great day but so close to being even better! Amazing after all the rain they had they got the meeting on and the track raced really well.

[Hotspur88]

23 minutes ago, Darran said:

Great day but so close to being even better! Amazing after all the rain they had they got the meeting on and the track raced really well.

Do you stick your selections up for each Saturday morning or just randomly now and again? Didn't follow on this occasion typically as being sensible with my pts (smallish pot currently). But I'll be sure to follow in future 👏🏼

[Darran]

40 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Do you stick your selections up for each Saturday morning or just randomly now and again? Didn't follow on this occasion typically as being sensible with my pts (smallish pot currently). But I'll be sure to follow in future 👏🏼

When it comes to Australian flat races I just cover the big meetings as I really don’t have the time to do it week in week out. I have a separate thread for Aussie jumps racing on here and I cover every race during the season and the next 4 races are tomorrow so previews for those will be up at some point.

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Kempton 2.40

OLD HARROVIAN

[Hotspur88]

40 minutes ago, Darran said:

When it comes to Australian flat races I just cover the big meetings as I really don’t have the time to do it week in week out. I have a separate thread for Aussie jumps racing on here and I cover every race during the season and the next 4 races are tomorrow so previews for those will be up at some point.

Sounds great, where is this posted mate?

[MGC]

Auric 4/1 130 K

Treated with kid gloves on first outing.

 Broke sharply and up with early pace until brought back for cover to rear. Was only given one tap of the whip and ran on well for forth. 

Murphy and Palmer 5 from 9 this season at course, 56%.

[The Equaliser]

B/Fwd L15's -64.95 RC P/L B/fwd -87.85

Had 2 0.10 L15's on the daily = 3 points staked

2.05 Km Choisya 2 pts win at 3/1 with Bet365 = my nap today

Total staked = 5 points with 8 races covered

[Hotspur88]

Choisya lost on the nod 😔

Hopefully not a sign of the day to come 🤞🏼

[richard-westwood]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

205 kemp 

Choisya  8.5 9/2 

Julia Augusta  8.2 15/2 

6pts top rated ....2pt Ew other 

Beaten in photo 😭 

[Darran]

1 hour ago, Hotspur88 said:

Sounds great, where is this posted mate?

On the forum.

[Hotspur88]

OMFG....I didn't back Cemhaan because of the drift, literally sums my day up 🤦🏼‍♂️

[black rabbit]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 kemp 

Cemhaan has a fairly big rating 8.7 for the class .....he has a tricky race to contend with but at 16/1 I'm prepared to go Ew as he looks very overpriced 

5pts Ew 16/1 willh 4 places 

40's + on the machine well done pal

[richard-westwood]

Just now, black rabbit said:

40's + on the machine well done pal

I had an extra fiver Ew after a read a great write up this morning .....I was hoping for the place but 25/1 is good enough .....get in you beauty 🤩

[fd1972uk]

Hmmm, old havorrian ran like a coo,  had a double with adelaise. 

Optik 1450

Circuit breaker 1515

Cuba tiger 1530

[Hotspur88]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I had an extra fiver Ew after a read a great write up this morning .....I was hoping for the place but 25/1 is good enough .....get in you beauty 🤩

Well done mate, absolutely gutted and kicking myself for not bloody following but my own fault. Certainly won't let a drift put me off again 😭. Would have sorted my bank right out as well.

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:

I had an extra fiver Ew after a read a great write up this morning .....I was hoping for the place but 25/1 is good enough .....get in you beauty 🤩

Many thanks, Richard, I got 28/1 in my Lucky 15 post; all I need is the other 3 to win, ha,ha

[black rabbit]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I had an extra fiver Ew after a read a great write up this morning .....I was hoping for the place but 25/1 is good enough .....get in you beauty 🤩

i have yours  and mine in crossed doubles / trebs /  + singles as always 😉

[richard-westwood]

1 minute ago, black rabbit said:

i have yours  and mine in crossed doubles / trebs /  + singles as always 😉

I'm gonna watch with interest ....I hope one goes in now for ya ....CMon the beauts !;;

[harry_rag]

21 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 kemp 

Cemhaan has a fairly big rating 8.7 for the class .....he has a tricky race to contend with but at 16/1 I'm prepared to go Ew as he looks very overpriced 

5pts Ew 16/1 willh 4 places 

Shall we say serendipity! Had a matched freebie offer, saw you're post and thought "that'll do". Unfortunately didn't get BOG but you can't have everything. Top work.

[ivans82]

Once again the Ladies show the men how to ride , Alice Bond and Saffie Osborne rode perfect races , always in the first 3 or 4 keeping it simple and off they go Hayley just touched off on Harry Did .

[Hotspur88]

The racing gods/stupid decisions against me today. Capulet only 3rd meaning only the football can save me today. Stupidly didn't follow Richard in and now Capulet has lost me a single and double. If Devoted & Noble win the next two at Kempton that will land me leg 3 & 4 of my short odds acca but if I was you, with my luck today I'd back against them 🤣😭🤦🏼‍♂️

[azzybear]

strong impact 4.05