Trip Around Italy! High Stakes Yankees

[vivaItalia]

Previous bet was very close with both Charlton and Norwich games finishing 1-1

 

Bet 20

 

£2.20 Yankee

 

Bank

 

-£27.35

[vivaItalia]

Bet 21 and 22 

x2 £2.20 Yankees 

Bank 

-£31.75

[vivaItalia]

Bet 23 

£2.20 Yankee

Bank

-£33.95

[vivaItalia]

Bet 24

£2.20 Yankee

Bank

-£36.15

[vivaItalia]

I've  enjoyed researching these type of bets and I'm glad I came on here to track it. I knew beforehand how difficult these bets are and as we come to the end of the season nothing has changed. 

 I will set a limit to how far I go, maybe -£100 bank which isn't a lot as it will take me into next season. 

I've also considered trying 30p patents (£2.10) as this will cover the single. At the beginning I had lower odds but as the time has passed my most predicted scores have been 2-1. This typically gives odds greater than 7.0 which means hitting singles would return a tiny amount of profit. 

 

We'll see! 

[harry_rag]

Do you have any idea whether you’d be up or down from backing singles? For me that’s the difference between this being a bit of fun with a genuine expectation of a long term profit or it only being profitable if you get lucky. I must admit that I’m sceptical of the correct score market being one that’s readily beatable.

It’s also relevant to the singles/patent consideration. If you’re losing money on them then don’t waste stake on them, just stick to the approach of hoping for a big win. And if you do think singles are worthwhile then take the effort to get the best possible price on them rather than settle for whatever a single firm is offering. I’d say you’d do better by just backing them all on the exchange. It’s a bit of extra effort but that’s usually the key to turning a small loss into a modest profit.

[vivaItalia]

Thanks for the reply. 

It isn't looking good with the singles either 🤣  To include the singles I would need to do Lucky 15 which would be £3 a bet. This would have left me a little further in the red. 

I agree with what you say that going forward singles/shopping around is the only way forward to be in Profit. 

But this is still a bit of fun for me. The stakes and time invested are very low and I am just looking to hit Lucky once! 🍀

[vivaItalia]

Bet 25

 

£2.10 Patent

 

Bank

 

-£38.25

[Skittle]

Even with a win of £377 it won't get you round much of Italy. ................target has changed as well then???

[harry_rag]

7 hours ago, Skittle said:

Even with a win of £377 it won't get you round much of Italy. ................target has changed as well then???

Bang on. I don’t think I got my point across regarding the singles. No point in backing them at all given the evidence they would be loss making. IF you’re insistent on backing them then place them separately at the best possible price. 

But, given the original premise of the thread, the bit of fun and hoping to hit the big one angle, don’t bother with L15s or patents, do Yankees or trixies and increase the stakes. Consider the returns for the above bet.

• Best return for one winner is £3.30. Really, what’s the point?
• Best double pays £37.50
• All 3 pays £377.70

Compare that to using the 30p singles to bump up the stake for a trixie to 52.5p (you’d have to round up or down of course).

• One winner returns nothing
• Best double pays £54.86
• All 3 pays £645.49

Given the boost to the return for all 3 surely it’s not worth bothering with the singles for the sake of getting three quid or so back once in a while? Even the extra return on a double is slightly better than getting 5 singles.

For me, the singles place too much emphasis on reducing your loss and the likely long runs with no return at the expense of getting a worthwhile payout if you get lucky.

[Skittle]

It's something of a forlorn hope anyway to be fair. 

In my younger days, don't laugh, I used to do a correct score bet in the bookies every Saturday........ie

Liverpool               2-1      2-0

Chelsea                  2-0      3-0

Leeds                     2-1       1-1

Everton                 2-1       2-0

Arsenal                 2-0       3-0

---------

Full cover perm   2x2x2x2x2=32 bets @ 1p.

==============================================

You get the idea..........over all the years I did this I only ever got one winner, paid just over a grand. 

They don't come in very often.

 

 

[harry_rag]

38 minutes ago, Skittle said:

In my younger days, don't laugh, I used to do a correct score bet in the bookies every Saturday

Ah, remember the days when you had to look up the correct score odds on the back of the coupon or a chart on the wall in the bookies! Sometimes there was value to be had in the 100/1 for any score not listed angle.

The bookies were slow to cotton on in the number of goals creeping up in certain competitions (Champions League and Serie A for example) and I hit the odd 3-3 draw at 100/1. Also Hills did a half-time coupon where 2-2 at half time was 100/1 for every game. I think I did that to tiny stake doubles across the whole coupon but I had some early success before gradually giving most of it back. I think the stats across one season suggested it was value but maybe it was a freak season and I gave up on the idea. Been a very long time since I've bet on a correct score!

[vivaItalia]

On 4/29/2024 at 11:52 AM, harry_rag said:

Bang on. I don’t think I got my point across regarding the singles. No point in backing them at all given the evidence they would be loss making. IF you’re insistent on backing them then place them separately at the best possible price. 

But, given the original premise of the thread, the bit of fun and hoping to hit the big one angle, don’t bother with L15s or patents, do Yankees or trixies and increase the stakes. Consider the returns for the above bet.

• Best return for one winner is £3.30. Really, what’s the point?
• Best double pays £37.50
• All 3 pays £377.70

Compare that to using the 30p singles to bump up the stake for a trixie to 52.5p (you’d have to round up or down of course).

• One winner returns nothing
• Best double pays £54.86
• All 3 pays £645.49

Given the boost to the return for all 3 surely it’s not worth bothering with the singles for the sake of getting three quid or so back once in a while? Even the extra return on a double is slightly better than getting 5 singles.

For me, the singles place too much emphasis on reducing your loss and the likely long runs with no return at the expense of getting a worthwhile payout if you get lucky.

Thanks again for your input mate. 

Perhaps I will give the 50p Trixie a go and go from there. 

I can't stress enough how it's a bit of fun for me. I enjoy checking the stats, odds and forms of teams. Mostly on the train home. And now I'm now I'm enjoying tracking the profit/loss and speaking with other people about systems and history with these bets. 

My next glory hunter thread will be centre back first goalscorers 😅😭

[vivaItalia]

On 4/29/2024 at 4:01 AM, Skittle said:

Even with a win of £377 it won't get you round much of Italy. ................target has changed as well then???

I would settle for a win that could pay the Pizza Express bill at this stage! 

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, vivaItalia said:

My next glory hunter thread will be centre back first goalscorers 😅😭

That would be more up my ally! I mainly focus on anytime scorers near the top of the market but I’ve been looking at scorers from outside the box a bit of late. Defenders and/or headers could be another angle to at least take a quick look at in the post season review.

[vivaItalia]

Bet 26

55p Trixie (£2.20)

Bank

-£40.45

[vivaItalia]

Bet 27

50p Trixie (£2.00)

Bank

-£42.45