MCLARKE Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 I have analysed all the results of the top rated selections for 2023 based on the top speed figures achieved during 2022 and 2023. They have made a loss (AE 0.98) which is a tad disappointing. However the 2nd, 3rd and 4th top rated had an AE above 1.02 which is more encouraging. I didn't really expect to make a profit just by picking the top rated. I will continue to analyse the data and see where I end up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 (edited) I don't know how possible it would be to research in past results but something like..... Only back the top rated if it's not in the top 2 or top 3 in the betting obviously there'd be a lot fewer bets but when they won they'd be bigger odds ! edit .... this is something I could think about if I do the AW ratings next winter Edited May 9 by Trotter MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Yes, that's the sort of analysis I will be looking at, I should be able to look at your idea over the next couple of days (if I can keep myself out of the beer garden !) black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 17 Author Share Posted May 17 I've now analysed the results for 2022 and these are much encouraging. The top rated showed a profit and an AE of 1.04. Top rated for today's TV races Newbury 2.30 GALLANT LION 10/3 BETMGM EW 4 places York 2.15 IT AIN'T TWO BSP York 2.45 LORD PROTECTOR BSP York 3.15 BOLSENA 11/2 BV York 3.45 AL QAAREEM 8/1 BETMGM York 4.15 DARK TORNADO BSP yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 The theory is not translating into practice yet Current loss -15.30 Today's TV races Newmarket 2.05 LOVE BILLY BOY 17/4 EW 3 places Ladbrokes Newmarket 2.40 RAINBOW FIRE 15/2 EW 4 places Ladbrokes Newmarket 3.15 HE'S A GENTLEMAN 14/1 BETMGM Newbury 1.50 DESERT HERO 10/11 BETMGM Newbury 2.25 JAMES DELIGHT BSP Newbury 3.00 BLACK RUN 10/1 4 places BV Newbury 3.35 WITCH HUNTER 20/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 Doncaster 4.57 DAMASCUS STEEL 7/2 BV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 18 Author Share Posted May 18 Doncaster 7.50 BERNARDO O'REILLY 5/1 BETMGM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 Another poor day yesterday although Authorised was the top rated on the going in the big race at a big price. Still a learning process at this stage. Current loss -25.10 Today's TV races at Newmarket 4.15 BERKSHIRE ROCCO 9/4 BETMGM 4.45 MYTHICAL GUEST BSP 5.15 ROYAL MUSKETEER BSP 5.45 WOODHAY WONDER 18/5 LADBROKES 6.15 HARRY BROWNE 19/4 LADBROKES 6.45 BEVERANGO 12/1 EW LADBROKES In Play Race Reader 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 On 4/15/2024 at 9:50 AM, Zilzalian said: Well in my opinion and they way i formulate speed figures, i go off all its wins and places, horses move up and down the handicap over the years so they are relevant certainly for 4 years and i would suggest beyond, didn't Documenting win the other day at a decent price 22/1? That horse is 11 years old, Boom the Groom won 3 times last year at decent prices and that one is 13, the older horses tend to run at their own level all be it lack consistency steadily dropping down in grade until they are retired. That's why i am very weary of handicaps and only use speed seriously in Pattern races or in the heritage handicaps "worth winning". That's not to say they should be discarded because i use this type of horse in Lucky 15 etc for a bit of fun and have done reasonably well out of them. One thing to bear in mind about distances and goings in pattern races the top trainers have a pretty good idea of whether a horse can do the trip or ground particularly as they age from 2yo-3yo-4yo that's why we have so many horses pulled out if the conditions don't suit Trueshan is a good example of that. I do disregard or downgrade horses at distances that they haven't won over once they reach 4 year old and beyond especially in sprints but there are always exceptions to the rules. My data so far seems to back up the use of speed figures in handicaps. Based on their next run in a particular year the AE for non handicaps is 1.023 and shows a small profit whilst for handicaps the AE is 0.978. Other interesting conclusions at this stage are :- 2yo show a profit with an AE of 1.021. AW returns are relatively poor with an AE of 0.975. Horses with forecast odds less than 9/4 have an AE of 0.963. Returns for class 1 to 3 races have a return of 0.969. This appears to be at odds with the fact that returns are better for non handicaps, I will investigate this further. This is just for the next run, I now need to extend the analysis to the next few runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 41 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: My data so far seems to back up the use of speed figures in handicaps. Based on their next run in a particular year the AE for non handicaps is 1.023 and shows a small profit whilst for handicaps the AE is 0.978. Other interesting conclusions at this stage are :- 2yo show a profit with an AE of 1.021. AW returns are relatively poor with an AE of 0.975. Horses with forecast odds less than 9/4 have an AE of 0.963. Returns for class 1 to 3 races have a return of 0.969. This appears to be at odds with the fact that returns are better for non handicaps, I will investigate this further. This is just for the next run, I now need to extend the analysis to the next few runs. The Two year olds are everything to me once they have run enough times. You might want to break down the 2yo in pattern races to see if that 1.021 gets better. I stop using the speed figures for singles once a horse enters handicaps and just use them for the pattern at 3yo and up. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 On 5/9/2024 at 9:26 PM, Trotter said: I don't know how possible it would be to research in past results but something like..... Only back the top rated if it's not in the top 2 or top 3 in the betting obviously there'd be a lot fewer bets but when they won they'd be bigger odds ! edit .... this is something I could think about if I do the AW ratings next winter I've had a look at the data for the last 2 years, it proved a bit trickier than I inittially envisaged. As you suggested, ignoring those at the top of the market will improve returns. Ignoring those horses with forecast odds of 7/2 and below gives an AE of 1.05 with 1,117 from 9,558 runs with a profit of 296 points. Not a massive return but a good starting point. Trotter and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 9 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Ignoring those horses with forecast odds of 7/2 and below gives an AE of 1.05 with 1,117 from 9,558 runs with a profit of 296 points. Not a massive return but a good starting point. For clarity, what are the criteria here? Backing the horse that was top rated on its last run subject to the minimum odds criteria? If so, is that top rated on the going or overall? Just after a reminder of where you’re up to. Am I right in thinking you’re trying to arrive at a pure system approach where the selections pick themselves? I do think that speed ratings lend themselves more to an interpretive approach than an automated one (unless you can find a way to use them to price up every runner). I can see a scenario where you’re backing a top rated 5/1 shot when there’s a 25/1 shot that’s rated only slightly lower which would be the obvious bet for anyone using their judgement. Or are you taking the odds into account in some way? Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 To be fair I am looking at several angles here and this particular analysis was in response to the question posed by @Trotter. For this analysis the selections were the top rated overall. This would be a starting point for further analysis. Hopefully as time progresses I will discover analysis based on the going that are more profitable. All my work is with the intention of ending up with a pure system, my interpretive skills are not very good ! Speed figures are not a particularly precise measure, I suspect that they probably produce the wrong answer in most cases but they just need to be right a certain amount of the time for them to be valuable. My main area of focus at the moment is to look at horses that have produced a speed figure in the top 50% of performances and then further analyse them based on a number of factors such as course, going, class, position,weight etc. So as an example Following horses in the top 50% on their next 5 runs gives the following results Original run on good going, 6,063 wins from 46,673 runs, profit 1,262, AE 1.04 Official rating > 95, 2,049 from 17,925, profit 1,078, AE 1.06 Original run in class 1 to 3 races, 7,693 from 66,489, profit 613, AE 1.03 Fillies / Mares, 6,818 from 52,515, profit 422, AE 1.03 2yo, 1,466 from 8,718, profit 190, AE 1.04 I now need to look at these in more detail to arrive at a logical system that will hopefully prove profitable in my test data and then in real life ! harry_rag and black rabbit 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I have a vague idea for an additional "value rating" to add to what we did for the Guineas races (though an individual could use it as well). At it's most basic, you could multiply your rating by the odds for that horse. The number might be a bit ungainly but you could do what I did and convert it into an index number where 100 is the average for that race so anything above 100 appears to offer the better value. Say you have two 9/1 shots in the race, with speed ratings of 68 and 72. That gives you 680 and 720, with the potentially better value selection getting the higher number. Or, say you have two horses rated at 70, one is 9/1 and one is 12/1. That gives you 700 and 910, again flagging the likely better bet. I'm not suggesting this is a magic bullet but it could speed up the process we went through of mentally comparing the ratings to the prices on offer and picking out our best bet. A useful indicator to add into the mix perhaps. yossa6133, MCLARKE and Zilzalian 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Can't just do the basic sum as it's going over-rate a lot of the rank outsiders. Still the seed of a decent idea (something that factors in the price). Will have a play about with it before the call next goes out for the Master Raters to assemble! Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I am watching this discussion/experiment with great interest simply because i have already gone through most of these processes to arrive at where/what i use today. Interpretation is always needed but i still ended up 95% of the time coming down to the simple fact that i have produced speed ratings to identify the fastest horse in the race (not necessarily the best horse in the race) so i sway towards the pure figure especially where the price is above 6/1. My top rated for the G1 2000g for example was Bucanero Fuerte (66/1) which was pulled out at the 5 day stage. It ran on Sunday in a group 3 at Naas and won at 2/1 (10/3 ep). Both of these prices in both races represented value when you consider the difference in the two races. Once again Bucanero Fuerte produced the fastest time/figure of the meeting. That will go in the notebook going forward as one to follow at a price. I think the Bucanero example is where there is good information outside of speed figures that is based originally on speed figures if you get my meaning. Based on this I am predicting that Bucanero Fuerte will win at a decent price at Royal Ascot if it turns up. MCLARKE and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 On 4/4/2024 at 9:01 PM, Zilzalian said: Will 100% support the assessment of regional very unusual for a horse to return 4 consecutive numbers above 130. Regional is due to run in the 2.30 at Curragh on Saturday, available at 6/1and also entered in 2 sprints at Royal Ascot Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 A win bet on Regional at BSP Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: A win bet on Regional at BSP I managed to nick the R/forecast in that one but had it double the the other way round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 A good run to finish 2nd at 17/2 York 3.20 LMAY BSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 (edited) 58 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: A good run to finish 2nd at 17/2 York 3.20 LMAY BSP Re-Regional that was amongst its worst SR on my book and will certainly come on for that run and will hopefully repay us at a bigger price. Edited May 25 by Zilzalian MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 York 5.05 GRANT WOOD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 SALISBURY 5.20 SUB THIRTEEN 5/2 BETMGM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 WINDSOR 5.35 UMMING N AHING 80/1 BETMGM EW 4 PLACES black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 Top rated for today's TV races 2.00 ATHERSTONE WARRIOR 55/1 LADBROKES 2.35 NOTRE BELLE BETE 16/1 EW 5 places BV 3.10 EMILY UPJOHN BSP 3.45 SWEET REWARD BSP 4.30 RUBIES ARE RED 10/1 BETMGM black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 Top rated for today's TV races 2.00 SPARKS FLY 11/1 BV 2.35 SILVER SWORD 15/1 LADBROKES 3.10 VINCE L'AMOUR 20/1 EW 5 places LADBROKES 3.45 DREAM COMPOSER BSP 4.30 AMBIENT FRIENDLY 6/1 LADBROKES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 2.00 RUNNING LION BSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 2 Author Share Posted June 2 Lots of races on the telly today, mostly low class but I'll have a few small bets NOTTINGHAM 3.55 MARBUZET 15/2 EW 4 places LADBROKES 4.25 GREAT BLASKET 11/4 LADBROKES 4.55 ARDBRACCAN BSP 5.30 ISLAND NATIVE BSP HAMILTON 3.40 DOLCE VITA BSP 4.10 ALIGN THE STARS 15/8 BV 4.40 FAYLAQ 12/1 EW 4 places BV 5.10 DESPERATE HERO 9/1 EW 4 places BV 5.40 FIVER FRIDAY BSP 6.10 MR IRRELEVANT 7/2 EW 3 places LADBROKES 6.40 BEARWITH 6/1 EW 4 places BV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 2 Author Share Posted June 2 A better day with wins for Desperate Hero at 9/1, Fiver Friday at BSP 9.23 and Mr Irrelebant at 7/2. Pleased with Desperate Hero who had achieved a top speed rating of 100 according to my ratings. LeMale and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 2 Author Share Posted June 2 I have now split AW from turf and the turf fgures are a lot more encouraging. The top 23% of all runners (those with a speed figure of 65 or above) have produced an AE over the next 9 runs. Some of the initial conclusions from the data are :- Small fields in the qualifying race poor results with an AE of 0.99 for fields of 7 or less. The top qualifying course is Ripon with an AE of 1.14. Class 1 races produce an AE of 1.05. 5 year olds produce the best returns with an AE of 1.05. Non handicaps have an AE of 1.06. Horses with forecast odds less than 11/8 have an AE of 0.94. The first run produces an AE of 0.999. harry_rag and LeMale 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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