Racing Chat - Tuesday 12th March (Cheltenham)

[richard-westwood]

It's been a tough few weeks ratings wise ....going sticks of an average 3.6 which is bottom less have made life difficult and Saturdays imperial I changed tack and thought I'd use trends just to help narrow the race and then the untrended ratings get the 1st and 2nd !!!.....so for Cheltenham I'm using untrended ratings (i.e all runners regardless) and the ground is drying ...currently soft...5.6 but could get to good sft (6.3)...later in week hopefully 

Final ratings for ultima hcaps 

Eldorado Allen. 9.0 20/1 

Stumptown    8.9 

Chianti classico. 8.9

Monbeg genius.  8.4

Lord de nesnil   8.4 

As you'd expect a very very difficult race not least because meetingofwaters the fav for Mullins has recently been bought by j p McManus for a large sum so maybe they've got dreams of winning this and the grand national ???....but for me this horse is going to have to improve a lot on what he's shown to date but if he's something special at home and that's why he's bought in then could be dangerous 

I've already got bets Ew on stumptown and Chianti classico so I'm happy with those given I get a run 😃.....the horse that's surprised me is ...eldorado Allen who has jumped to top rated on final weights so I'll be adding 10pt Ew on him at 20/1 ...that looks good value now 

Monbeg genius and lord de nesnil look lively outsiders at big prices ....tough race but the team is set ...let's hope I can get the festival off to a good start .....good luck all 

[calva decoy]

After looking at the first day decs i can see W.Mullins bagging 4 or 5 winners with 6 of the 12 in the Supreme , hope I'm wrong , he had a lot of odds on favourites turned over at the Dublin Festival but his 2nd & 3rd string those days were most probably their seasonal pinnacle races .

I fancy G.Elliotts NDAAWI 17/2 in 4.50 , he's won 3 of last 6 renewals of this race . 3rd 12/1 , missed out on b.o.g. but risk you take going early .

 

Sky Bet are giving all cash back on the Supreme maximum bet £5 in which I did MYSTICAL POWER 7/2 .

Galileo out of Annie Power , some breeding , quirky type , still green but very talented & best of all , if it comes last , I get my cash back 👍 2nd , got cash back & good run for my money .

Edited March 12 by calva decoy