"Steamers” and “Drifters

[White Feather]

For all the donkey's years I have been backing horses, I will never fathom out why  a number of my fancies "drift" in the betting?

Now there could be a number of reasons , such as Paddock Picks - Whispers around the track etc.

I will give you a couple of examples from the 14:30 Musselburgh - Whitehaven  6/1 and Whozatgirl  12/1 - Whitehaven had a 4 star rating by Timeform - Both drifted badly - Whitehaven went of at 25/1 and Whozatgirl 66/1!

When I visit my  local track Hamilton Park , I place my bet a few minutes prior to the off as I watch the market on which horse is being well supported . A few years ago I would normally pick out my fancies and back them at the track but when any of them "drifted" I wouldn't have any confidence on my horse winning.

I like to get my bets on early and try and get the best value, so I can only hope like other punters that they don't drift but on the other hand punters wouldn't mind their bets drifting as they will see that it's better odds.

I understand the PL community have their ways of backing horses but it will be interesting to know your thoughts? or is it the way things  are now?

[White Feather]

21 minutes ago, White Feather said:

For all the donkey's years I have been backing horses, I will never fathom out why  a number of my fancies "drift" in the betting?

Now there could be a number of reasons , such as Paddock Picks - Whispers around the track etc.

I will give you a couple of examples from the 14:30 Musselburgh - Whitehaven  6/1 and Whozatgirl  12/1 - Whitehaven had a 4 star rating by Timeform - Both drifted badly - Whitehaven went of at 25/1 and Whozatgirl 66/1!

When I visit my  local track Hamilton Park , I place my bet a few minutes prior to the off as I watch the market on which horse is being well supported . A few years ago I would normally pick out my fancies and back them at the track but when any of them "drifted" I wouldn't have any confidence on my horse winning.

I like to get my bets on early and try and get the best value, so I can only hope like other punters that they don't drift but on the other hand punters wouldn't mind their bets drifting as they will see that it's better odds.

I understand the PL community have their ways of backing horses but it will be interesting to know your thoughts? or is it the way things  are now?

This might interest you.

Journalist Jack Houghton opines as follows:

“The nearest I’ve come to following a betting system…was after studying the performance of “steamers” and “drifters” in a sample of over 65,000 horses who ran in 2006. Noting the price of all horses two hours before the off and their starting price, I categorised all “steamers” as those whose odds had shortened by five per cent of the book or more, and all “drifters” as those whose odds had lengthened the same.

The categorisation was arbitrary, but showed compelling evidence as to the folly of blindly following market moves. To a £10 stake, you would have lost nearly £3,500 backing steamers, and won nearly £2,310 backing drifters.”

I’ve got a problem with the 5% benchmark. A horse backed into 6/5 (45% of the book) from 6/4 (40% of the book) isn’t a steamer in my opinion. Similarly, a horse going the other way from 6/5 to 6/4 isn’t that much of a drifter. Nevertheless, despite the sample covering just one year, it seems you could do worse than back drifters.

However, the author continues:

“Unfortunately, the analysis cannot easily be turned into a profitable betting system. The analysis is retrospective, making it impossible to accurately implement in future races. In other words, it’s impossible to know whether a horse is a drifter or what price you are supposed to back it at until after the betting market has closed.”

[MCLARKE]

Interesting.

I also tend to put my bets on early but when they are drifters they usually do badly and vive versa with horses shortening. Today for example I backed Barrel Edge which won at 13/8 after being available at 4/1 last night.

However I haven't done a detailed analysis so I might be talking through my wallet.

I'm not sure why it could not be turned into a profitable system, wait until the off and back the horse that has drifted by x%.

[Zilzalian]

I usually add another bet if my selection drifts (if i notice) i very rarely do it if it shortens as a rule. I did very well on the french/german/meydan racing before 365 took the BOG off the night before and made it 8am+ i do less so now but i try to get on as early as possible my last consideration once i place the bet is its price thereafter. I think you can waste a lot of valuable time micromanaging your bets. That time you could be putting to better use studying the subject and building up a notebook.

[Trotter]

I have no info but I tend to notice that if I've backed something or put it up in PL Comp and when I come to watch  the race something else has shortened a lot in the hour or two before the race ........ well I usually think my horse hasn't got much chance and the one that's been backed wins