The Brigadier Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Newbury 1.15 The first of five races covered by ITV at Newbury this afternoon is this 2M 92 yard class 3 Handicap Chase. A case can be made for most but it’s the Jeremy Scott trained The Russian Doyen that catches my eye. A course and distance winner three starts back in February 2022 off of a handicap mark a pound higher he probably needed his latest run, his first for 621 days, when finishing a 14 1/2L fourth again over course and distance at the beginning of the month having run well to two out before running out of puff. With that run behind him he should run a nice race with Harry Cobden an interesting jockey booking (he was on board when winning here in February 2022). THE RUSSIAN DOYEN 1 point win @ 5/1 William Hill Haydock 1.25 The Betfred Last Fling Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3M 4 1/2F is an open contest with all six of the competitors holding a chance of sorts. Stakes should be kept to a minimum with possibly top weight Fortescue the one to be with. Henry Daly’s nine year old has slipped to a handicap mark 5lb lower than his last winning one, which came at Ascot in February 2022. He wasn’t disgraced following a 238 day absence when fourth of 10 (beaten 6 1/2L) to Nassalam in the Coral Welsh National Trial Handicap Chase at the beginning of the month. The winner hacked up in the big race earlier in the week and with Hugh Nugent claiming a valuable 3lb can run a big race. FORTESCUE 1 point win @ 11/2 BetVictor Newbury 1.50 Just six line up for this 2m 4 1/2F class 2 handicap hurdle. Dan Skelton’s top weight Get A Tonic was very impressive when winning over course and distance at the beginning of the month when making all to win at a seemingly unfancied 28/1 by 7L from Anyharminasking with one of today’s rivals Irish Hill back in 7th and seemingly held here (although he does sport first time blinkers and is 10lb better off at the weights). With similar tactics likely to be employed by Harry Skeleton he can go in again despite a 8lb rise in the weights. GET A TONIC 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill Taunton 2.10 This 2M 104 yard listed mares’ novices’ hurdle may be fought out by Harry Derham’s Queens Gamble and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Casa No Mento. It’s hard to split the pair but slight preference is for the latter who is actually officially rated 6lb superior to his rival. Twiston-Davies’s mare is unbeaten over hurdles following easy success’s at Market Rasen and Hereford this season. Assistant trainer Willy Twiston-Davies was very bullish of the horse’s ability going forward stating that she was the only horse able to work with the now retired I Like To Move It. She wouldn’t want the ground to get much softer than it currently is but she can beat the equally promising Queens Gamble. CASA NO MENTO 1 point win @ 2/1 bet365 Newbury 2.25 A decent sized field of twelve have declared for the Coral Mandarin Handicap Chase which has an open look about it. A case can be made for several especially Kerry Lee’s Atlanta Brave who ran well at Exeter last time but its Shanty Alley who may well represent some each way value here. Trained by Ben Case he is 5lb lower than when running a stormer in this race last year in finishing second, beaten 3/4L by Grumpy Charlie when attempting to make all. He probably needed his latest run at Catterick back in November, his first for 202 days and a further 2lb drop for that run is welcomed. Jack Quinlan takes the ride for the first time and off of a nice mark looks each way value. SHANTY ALLEY 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 1/5th 1234 Taunton 2.45 A tricky five runner handicap hurdle run over just short of three miles is up next with each of the quintet holding a chance of sorts. Harry Derham is making a name for himself in the training ranks and has as good a chance as any with his Game Winner. He has run twice over fences this season without setting the world alight and reverts back to hurdles here in first time cheek pieces. A winning novice hurdler last season he may still have some improvement to come and with Paul O’Bren on top can take this winnable race. GAME WINNER 1 point win @ 9/4 Betfred Newbury 3.00 The day’s feature race is the 2M 4 1/2F Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle which has attracted a decent sized field of nine. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the last three years so his Captain Teague (he also saddles Farnoge)has to be respected but it’s the Nicky Henderson trained Willmount that appeals the most. Unbeaten in an Irish point to point and two bumpers when in the care of Neil Mulholland, he made a scintillating debut for his new handler when winning a novice hurdle over the minimum trip in November, coming home 13L clear of his field having jumped slickly. This is a totally different type of race but he oozes class and will be well suited by the extra half a mile today under Nice de Boinville. He can strike here with Captain Teague and Jonjo O’Neill’s Johnnywho live dangers. WILLMOUNT 2 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor Newbury 3.35 We conclude racing at Newbury today with this 2M 6 1/2F Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase with eight horses going to post. Jamie Snowden is having a good season with the likes of Ladbroke Trophy winner Datsalrightgino and appears to have a solid chance here with six year old Passing Well. He stepped forward from his chasing debut to win a similar race to this at Lingfield at the end of November by a length from Heva Rose who’s won since. A 3lb rise for that victory may not be enough to stop him from following up in a race that may not take much winning. PASSING WELL 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365 Brahmin, black rabbit, The Equaliser and 5 others 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Feather Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Bangers And Cash 16/1 PP - 14:25 Newbury Moon Hunter 14/1 PP - 15:35 Newbury 2 x singles - Each Way Double black rabbit, Brahmin, Bedlam and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
black rabbit Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) Yes Indeed 2 25 Neb/ 1/40th of a pt ew 14/1 Notachance 2 25 Neb/ 1/40th of a pt ew 22/1 Artctic Ambition 3 10Hyd/ 1/40th of a pt win 60/1 P/L +173.20 pts Edited December 30, 2023 by black rabbit Bedlam, LEE-GRAYS, MCLARKE and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonythepaint Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Bet 1 The Equaliser, yossa6133, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Moodofthemoment @ 16/1 Taunton 13:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Neon Moon @ 16/1 Newbury 15:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Shanty Alley @ 15/2 Newbury 14:25 - Winner 4 - 1/ 5 Returns £0.00 Jason The Militant @ 16/1 Haydock 14:35 - Winner 3 - 1/ 5 Return 0.1pt e/w L15 bog =3pts 2pts win 1.25 Hay EAST STREET 9/2 bog Total 5pts invested Bedlam, yossa6133, The Equaliser and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 5yo selections black rabbit and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brahmin Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) Hi and good afternoon all, great write up by @TheBrigadier and other 'wise owls' on the thread.....so must listen to those and add few of our own selections to 🐎 🤞 Betfair treble @ 3/1.....1.50 get a tonic / 2.25 atlanta brave / 3.35 passing well......all top 3 finish at Newbury Newb 1.15 Martator 11/8 The Russian Doyen 7/2 😱 did not listen to hubby, said follow in form yard G Moore...4/1 winner Hay 1.25 Fantastikas 7/2 Robyndzone 10/3 WON Newb 1.50 Get a Tonic 3/1 Irish Hill 4/1 Hay 2.00 Southern Sam 10/3 WON Step Above 4/1 New 3.00 Willmount 3/1 Captain Teague 2/1 WON (main bet) New 3.35 Passing Well 11/4 Ballycamus 7/2 3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆...... Main bet win made it a small profit 👍 Edited December 30, 2023 by Brahmin black rabbit and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 surrey quest 2.25 The Equaliser, calva decoy, Bedlam and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroni Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) 300 Newbury - Brave Jen @ 125/1 ew bet365 Looks overpriced to me, nice run last time, should appreciate step up in trip. Open to plenty of improvement. Edited December 30, 2023 by kroni Typo Bedlam and Sporting Sam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) Hope you’ve had a great afternoon twig hopping, everyone. Very late start, been catching up on bulb planting. so much of that lurgy floating around and I seem to have picked up much of it. Off for a bonfire 🔥 next!! wolverhampton 1540 The favourite here bolted up by 3.5 lengths eased down last time but it was not a strong race at all. This is an amateur jockeys hands 🙌 and heels 👠 race and totally different rules apply. Two horses stand out to me making his first ever start in a class six is VERONA STAR ⭐️ win ( draw data last year’s winning stall) AWESOME SPIRIT Each way Verona Star On his second run for new yard today. Kept out the back in eye catching fashion, held up and ate up the yards to beat four rivals at the end. That was in a class four off a 60 day break. The movement at the end looked significant to me. His previous return off a long break was over ten times the length 615 days. This followed a debut win under Hollie Doyle for Archie Watson in a class four. Despite the lay off, he managed a very good second on return. Which again suggests he was tenderly ridden latest and visual evidence backs that up. Anyway he now drops massively in class and won his only race pretty much hands and heels as well with barely a reminder on the run in from Hollie Doyle. The same jockey saw him off on last run for yard and to me this one looks prepped for what could turn out to be a routine task after a pipe opening debut. Disregard the opening run as Verona star was held up and never put into the race. This is the first run proper for new yard dropped into class six for first time ever and has an 8 pounds claimer on board who has enjoyed a first win recently. Awesome Spirit has bottom weight crucially here and has the lowest draw commensurate to weight too. That won’t have been lost on trainer micheal Appleby at all and many perceive these hands and heels apprentice jockey affairs as a liability, but like bumpers they are necessary on “the learning curve “ but fully exploitable. The favourite could as well bolt up given the advantage he held at the end of his race latest and that confidence may well stand to him here. Awesome star runs here in this low level affair off a career low mark having started out handicapping over twelve pounds higher for Micheal Callaghan over in Ireland 🇮🇪 and his connections probably dreamt of selling him over to Hong Kong and him being ridden by a high class race at Happy Valley, not as bottom weight in a class six hands and heels at Wolverhampton on a Saturday afternoon…. I hold a lot of stall on draw data as it’s my own system and although stall two won this race last year, my actual draw data horse is Finn Russell was on a hat trick two runs back here and ran fifth and then fifth again actually sits ten pounds under his debut handicap mark today and actually ticks a whole lot of boxes… I can’t back them all and while I’d rather he didn’t find his feet here but the two latest runs have not reflected the ability. Edited December 30, 2023 by Sporting Sam yossa6133 and Bedlam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wolverhampton 1715 united front Gavi di gavi both each way true statesman win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 (edited) Wolverhampton 1745 Baldermo win gone close the last four times two of them in class two’s. Top weight here and has the stall one draw. Rating stays on 90 for the fourth consecutive run. Drops in class and a short head and a neck behind in the higher grade suggests more improvement to eke out here. Jockey's five pound claim should clinch things here. Everything in this horse’s favour now the rating, class, draw and form and if he meets one too good, so be it. But it is his to lose. Edited December 30, 2023 by Sporting Sam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wolverhampton 1815 One night stand pepsi cat 🐈⬛ both win The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wolverhampton 1845 Crafter win REBBECCA WEST EACH WAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sporting Sam Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Wolverhampton 1915 ISLE OF WOLVES Win TAXXING Each way The top weight qualifies as the draw data horse and under rules of physics. The interesting runner here has shown absolutely nothing and some very poor performances has seen his mark tumble to a winnable level Andrew Slattery sends the perfect Irish ☘️ job to David Evans and although not greatly drawn improvement is almost inevitable here on all known showings and connections haven’t purchased a horse and shipped it over because it has never ever placed or run well…., LordMulberry 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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