MCLARKE Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Home wins also showed a proft for La Liga last season at 6.7%. For a 100% profit boost the edge is with the home win, especially when this is the outside bet of the 3. Tonight I will use my £5 100% on ALAVES at 19/2. I also have a 30% profit boost for a 5 timer. For a 30% profit boost the edge is the home win and the favourite. This includes MALLORCA at 13/10. Again home wins show a profit for the premier league at 8.2% For the 30% profit boost the the edge is the home win and the outsider. This gives CRYSTAL PALACE tonight. For La Liga 2 the draw is the most profitable bet at 6.6%. This gives HUSESCA / FC CARTAGENA, VILLAREAL B / REAL OVIEDO and SD AMOREBIETA / ALCORCON The 5 timer pays 225/1. Maximum winnings are £1,000 so I have limited my stake to £4 Random £5 GIRONA 29/20 Southwell 3.08 TSUNAMI SPIRIT 19/10 £20 10% profit boost A blank day today with a loss of £34 Total loss £52.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 Uttoxeter 1.40 EATON COLLINA 11/4 £20 10% profit boost Ascot 3.40 CAPTAIN DELLAMY 11/4 £20 10% profit boost EMPLOI / LAZIO draw 23/5 £5 profit boost SASSUOLO / GENOA draw 12/5 £5 ASTON VILLA / CAMBRIDGE UNITED / CLUB BRUGGE / HULL CITY 8/1 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 22, 2023 Author Share Posted December 22, 2023 9 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Uttoxeter 1.40 EATON COLLINA 11/4 £20 10% profit boost Ascot 3.40 CAPTAIN DELLAMY 11/4 £20 10% profit boost EMPLOI / LAZIO draw 23/5 £5 profit boost SASSUOLO / GENOA draw 12/5 £5 ASTON VILLA / CAMBRIDGE UNITED / CLUB BRUGGE / HULL CITY 8/1 £5 Another blank day. £60 loss Total loss £112.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 Newcastle 1.40 EVERYDAY CHAMPAGNE 3/1 £20 20% profit boost Newcastle 2.15 MONTREGARD 3/1 £20 20% profit boost FULHAM / BTTS NO 13/8 £10 LUTON TOWN 8/1 £5 100% profit boost MIGHTY OWLS 23/20 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 23, 2023 Author Share Posted December 23, 2023 LUTON won, otherwise a poor day Loss £15 Total loss £127.04 A profit of £50 on football and a £124 loss on racing Probably need a rethink on the racing bets, I think I'll stick to small fields in future as the overround should be less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 24, 2023 Author Share Posted December 24, 2023 On 12/21/2023 at 2:56 PM, harry_rag said: My initial reaction is to be surprised at the apparent profitability of simply backing home wins but I suppose it would be more surprising if nothing was profitable in any of the leagues (i.e. that 365's pricing was so spot on that nothing showed a profit with the cushion of just a 5% margin). What I suspect is that differing results might show a profit in different leagues and that it would vary from season to season. Were you to look at 10 seasons' data across the big five leagues I suspect it would be hard to identify a strategy that you could follow blindly for an easy profit. I also wonder what the prices are, i.e. opening or closing line. The returns could be skewed by the way 365 price up (they're not very good at it generally but it doesn't matter when you can limit or close anyone vaguely sharp). If these are their opening prices then they could be subject to correction as the market settles down. I think that one or two seasons per league is nowhere near enough to draw any conclusions in terms of "real" betting (e.g. deciding to blindly back home wins in a certain league) but it at least gives you a starting point in deciding how to play your boosts. You are correct, 2 seasons data is inadequate, I have now analysed 15 years of data for the premier league and La Liga. Whilst the home win doesn't show a profit it is still the best option. For the premier league the loss is 1.2% compared to 6.7% for the draw and 6.1% for the away win. The loss for La Liga is 2.2%. The favourite / longshot bias is also apparent with selections at odds of 3.6 or below showing a loss of 3.3% and those above showing a loss of 6.9%. The home win for has shown a profit in the premier league in 8 out of the 15 seasons. The biggest loss was 16% in 2020/21, this was the season of the pandemic and empty grounds. This does point me in the right direction when using boosts. Generally the outsider when playing at home is the best area to select. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 Lots of offers today BOURNEMOUTH / PRESTON NORTH END / MILLWALL / HUDDERSFIELD TOWN 160/1 £5 100% profit boost Kempton 1.55 RUBAUD 14/1 £5 100% profit boost NOTTINGHAM FOREST 15/1 £5 100% profit boost Market Rasen 1.47 MARGARET'S LEGACY 6/1 £5 100% profit boost Aintree 12.30 RIDERS ON THE STORM 33/20 £20 10% profit boost Wincanton 12.18 PLENTY OF TIME 24/5 £20 20% profit boost Fontwell 11.57 SAMBEZI 27/10 £20 win profit boost BURNLEY 14/1 £5 100% profit boost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 Also WEDNESDAY 18/5 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said: BOURNEMOUTH / PRESTON NORTH END / MILLWALL / HUDDERSFIELD TOWN 160/1 £5 100% profit boost 2 have won and 2 are winning at half time Cash out is £157.20 Terrible value but should I cash out as part of my attempt to look like a mug punter ? harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 4 hours ago, MCLARKE said: 2 have won and 2 are winning at half time Cash out is £157.20 Terrible value but should I cash out as part of my attempt to look like a mug punter ? Hope you held your nerve rather than do a @LEE-GRAYS Did you pick the teams or was it a pre built boost? LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Hope you held your nerve rather than do a @LEE-GRAYS Did you pick the teams or was it a pre built boost? I was going to wait till it got a bit higher but then both teams went 2-0 so I saw it through to the end. I picked the teams but not a great deal of science behind it, lady luck worked in my favour this time. I also had a couple of gos on the roulette and my number came up so another £170 profit. Over £1,000 profit now so it will be interesting to see if I get the dreaded "our trading team" letter. harry_rag and yossa6133 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Over £1,000 profit now so it will be interesting to see if I get the dreaded "our trading team" letter. A big fourfold and roulette winnings; you might just have managed to find the formula to convince them you’re a mug punter and that they’ll get it all back! Well done, might have to give them a try myself. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 11 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Lots of offers today BOURNEMOUTH / PRESTON NORTH END / MILLWALL / HUDDERSFIELD TOWN 160/1 £5 100% profit boost Kempton 1.55 RUBAUD 14/1 £5 100% profit boost NOTTINGHAM FOREST 15/1 £5 100% profit boost Market Rasen 1.47 MARGARET'S LEGACY 6/1 £5 100% profit boost Aintree 12.30 RIDERS ON THE STORM 33/20 £20 10% profit boost Wincanton 12.18 PLENTY OF TIME 24/5 £20 20% profit boost Fontwell 11.57 SAMBEZI 27/10 £20 win profit boost BURNLEY 14/1 £5 100% profit boost A good day today BOURNEMOUTH / PRESTON NORTH END / MILLWALL / HUDDERSFIELD TOWN 160/1£5 NOTTINGHAM FOREST 15/1 £5 Market Rasen 1.47 MARGARET'S LEGACY 6/1 £5 won at 11/4 Wincanton 12.18 PLENTY OF TIME 24/5 £20 won at 5/2 Number 26 (my birthday) came up from 2 attempts on roullette, £170 profit Profit for the day £ 1,129.41 Total profit £ 1,002.32 justice, In Play Race Reader and harry_rag 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 27, 2023 Author Share Posted December 27, 2023 Chepstow 12.30 FOLLOWANGO 7/1 £5 free bet Kempton 1.55 MASTER CHEWY 27/20 £20 10% price boost ST JOHNSTONE bet builder win / goals under 1.5 / corners under 9.5 14/1 £5 100% price boost CRYSTAL PALACE / WOLVES / EVERTON 140/1 £6 10% price boost ST MIRREN 8/5 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 28, 2023 Author Share Posted December 28, 2023 MASTER CHEWY won at 13/8 Profit for the day £11.50 less £5 on HIGHER or LOWER ! Total profit £1,008.82 Catterick 1.05 HAZY GLEN 3/1 £20 10 % profit boost BRIGHTON / TOTTENHAM draw 11/2 £5 100% profit boost WEST HAM 17/1 £5 profit boost RAYA SPORTING FC £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 28, 2023 Author Share Posted December 28, 2023 WEST HAM won Profit for the day £55 less £5 casino Total profit £1,058.82 Nigwilliam and justice 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 29, 2023 Author Share Posted December 29, 2023 Doncaster 11.55 JAYTEE 6/5 £20 win 10% profit boost Doncaster 3.20 REWIRED 11/5 £20 win 10% profit boost SUNDERLAND / total goals over 2.5 11/8 £10 BLACKBURN ROVERS / NORWICH CITY / SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY / MIDDLESBROUGH 60/1 £10 LEICESTER CITY 8/13 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 29, 2023 Author Share Posted December 29, 2023 REWIRED won at 10/3 and LEICESTER CITY won Profit for the day £7.15 less £5 casino Total profit £ 1,060.97 Nigwilliam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 30, 2023 Author Share Posted December 30, 2023 Newbury 12.05 WALK OF NO SHAME 9/1 £5 free bet Newbury 12.40 SECRET SQUIRREL 27/5 £20 20% price boost Taunton 2.45 KING OF THE LAKE 9/5 £20 20% profit boost CAGLIARI v EMPOLI draw / UDINESE v BOLOGNA draw / HELLAS VERONA v SALERNITANA draw / AC MILAN v SASSUOLO draw / JUVENTUS v ROMA draw 600/1 £1 30% profit boost BRENTFORD / BURNLEY / WOLVES v EVERTON draw / NOTTINGHAM FOREST v MANCHESTER UNITED draw 450/1 £2 20% profit boost LUTON TOWN 19/2 £5 100% profit boost ESTORIL 10/11 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just ESTORIL winning yesterday for a loss of £ 43.45 less £5 casino Total profit £ 1,012.52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 Punchestown 1.15 KINGS HALO 33/10 £20 20% profit boost Lingfield 1.54 TYRRHENIAN SEA 9/5 £20 20% profit boost FULHAM 10/1 £5 100% profit boost YEOVIL TOWN 4/6 £5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 31, 2023 Author Share Posted December 31, 2023 TYRRHENIAN SEA won at 5/4 and FULHAM won Profit £67 less £5 casino Total profit £ 1,074.52 black rabbit and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Catterick 3.05 DARK DUOMO 3/1 £20 10% profit boost NEWCASTLE UNITED 23/2 £5 100% profit boost SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY11/5 £5 SUNDERLAND v PRESTON draw / SWANSEA CITY v WEST BROMWICH draw / STOKE CITY / BLACKBURN ROVERS v ROTHERHAM UNITED draw / BRISTOL CITY v MILLWALL / LEICESTER CITY 700/1 £1 PLYMOUTH ARGYLE / CARDIFF CITY / COVENTRY CITY / NORWIC CITY / SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY / LEEDS UNITED 650/1 £1 40% profit boost black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Took cash out on Wednesday at £13.46 (77% of potential profit). LEE-GRAYS and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Took cash out on Wednesday at £13.46 (77% of potential profit). Like a true mug punter ! Zilzalian and harry_rag 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Like a true mug punter ! It seemed an odds choice to even bother looking at cash out for! (Said the man who rarely ever thinks to look at it for any bet.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: It seemed an odds choice to even bother looking at cash out for! (Said the man who rarely ever thinks to look at it for any bet.) Usually very poor value so the astute punter would neve cash out, only the mug punter. Only lost a couple of quid so no damage done, hopefully will help to keep the offers coming in. black rabbit and harry_rag 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Loss for the day £18.54 Total profit £ 1,055.98 black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 WEST HAM v BRIGHTON draw 29/10 £20 win 10% profit boost HIBERNIAN 9/10 £5 black rabbit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 WEST HAM v BRIGHTON draw won Profit for the day £54.50 less £5 casino Total profit £ 1,105.38 Nigwilliam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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