Trends For The Cheltenham Open Meeting

[White Feather]

Leading active trainers at Cheltenham

Sorted by strike rate since the start of the 2018/19 season (minimum 25 runners)

• Gavin Cromwell 22.86% (8-35)
• John McConnell 19.61% (10-51)
• Emma Lavelle 15.91% (7-44)
• Henry de Bromhead 15.71% (22-140)

• Leading active jockeys at Cheltenham

  Sorted by strike rate since the start of the 2018/19 season (minimum 25 rides)

• Keith Donoghue 20.69% (6-29)
• Paul Townend 20.41% (20-98)
• Richard Patrick 18.18% (8-44)
• Rachael Blackmore 17.71% (17-96)
• Gina Andrews 17.24% (5-29)

[MCLARKE]

My take on stats for the open meeting, based on the last 10 years.

Outsiders do not have a great record so I have limited my selections to those with forecast odds of 7/1 or less.

The record of these is 117 winners from 563 selections with a profit of 48 points and an AE of 1.06. For the remainder there were 71 winners from 1,438 selections with a loss of 263 points.

UK bred horses have a good record with 28 wins from 101 selections and a profit of 53 points. The AE is 1.36

Horses that last ran 22 to 41 days ago have 47 wins from 172 runs and a profit of 101 points. The AE is 1.36

Younger horses have a better record. Those aged less than 7 have 79 wins from 324 runs and a profit of 67 points. The AE is 1.12

Horses with 5 or 6 career runs have 16 winners from 48 runners with 41 points and an AE of 1.45

 

 

 

[White Feather]

Welcome to the bettrends Cheltenham Open Meeting Service!

Welcome to our first standalone service of the 23/24 Jumps Season, and we kick the season off in good style with the Cheltenham Open Meeting, which plays host to some top-class racing over the next three days. This post contains analysis and selections for Friday’s card, while the next two posts will pour over Saturday and Sunday’s racing. There are five races selected to look through on Friday’s card at HQ, so without further ado, let’s get stuck into the racing and hopefully find ourselves some winners…

1:10 Cheltenham – The Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (JB2)

A real competitive affair kicks off the three-day Cheltenham meeting, and David Pipe has an excellent record in this contest. He has trained the winner of this race three times in the last decade (2013, 2014, and 2019), had the fourth in 2020 and trained the runner-up in 2021, so he clearly likes to target one here; the trainer also has the third most winners at this meeting in last decade with 13. The trainer has two in the field here, and both are seemingly overlooked in the market at big prices. Paricolor is no stranger to being sent off at big odds in this contest, and actually finished second here two years ago at 50/1 from a mark of 118. The seven-year-old now returns in a bid to go one better from a 3lb lower mark, but his recent form does leave a bit to be desired, winless since December of 2021. He was pulled up on the final start of last season and underwent wind surgery over the summer following a trio of runs in which his finishing effort petered out tamely. He has since been sold and had a lowkey run on the flat at the start of the month, and his new connections will be hoping he will come on for his second run following the wind operation.

It is David Pipe’s other horse, AMERICAN SNIPER, that makes appeal here though, and does look to be the stable’s apparent first string with Fergus Gillard on board (he has ridden 50 winners for the trainer at a 15% strike rate). As a four-year-old last term, he made a real bright start to life over hurdles, winning a maiden at Chepstow and backing up in a novice hurdle at Taunton. He then chased home the now-133 rated Lallygag, although was well-behind that day, before going down by just a neck to Forever William back at Taunton giving him 5lbs; that rival has returned this season with a win off a mark of 121. Although pulled up on his next start, he bounced right back to form with a career-best in first-time cheekpieces when beaten just a length by Twig at Newbury; he was giving Ben Pauling’s runner 9lbs that day, and Twig has gone on to win twice since and is now rated 140 over hurdles. He disappointed on his final two starts of the campaign, with a long season perhaps finally catching up to the young horse early in his career. The five-year-old has returned this season with two quiet efforts in mid-division, with cheekpieces left off, and has dropped down to a real tempting mark of just 122. Cheekpieces and a first-time tongue tie go on here, and Pipe may well have been targeting this contest as he looks to get AMERICAN SNIPER back on track. Still a young horse with scope for improvement, a chance is taken on him at a big price here as he does appear to be well-treated on the pick of last season’s form.

Pinnacle Peak was a winner here at the October meeting for Martin Keighley, travelling strongly through the contest and hitting the front two from home before kicking clear to win by over four lengths in a real impressive display. Now two from three this season, and a horse that has put together a good winning run previously, he is dangerous to discount from a 6lbs higher mark. He had the Irish raider Arabian King in behind that day in fifth and a 7lb swing in the weights may not be enough for Cian Collins’ seven-year-old to reverse the form. Pinnacle Peak will be looking to reverse prior form with current market leader White Rhino though, with a 14lb weight swing for an eight-length defeat at Southwell back in March. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero are in flying form right now though, operating at a whopping 40% strike rate over the past fortnight, and White Rhino has won four of his last five starts. The seven-year-old bolted up on reappearance at Carlisle, and although up another 9lbs, will take some stopping. However, it must also be noted that this is his toughest assignment to date, and he will have to improve again to win here.

Gavin Cromwell had an excellent time at the October meeting here, walking away with three winners, and he trained the well-handicapped Sweet Will to victory in this contest in 2022. Fathom Two is a real intriguing runner, getting off the mark over hurdles at the second time of asking at Downpatrick before finishing third back at the track on handicap debut, from a mark of 111, after a couple of costly mistakes late on. The British handicapper has given him a mark of 117, and he really could be anything here. One with a similarly unexposed profile is Henry De Bromhead’s Gentle And Kind, who has had just the two starts over hurdles; finishing second on debut before getting off the mark at Tramore back in August, with the 134 rated Reverend Hubert back in third. She could be extremely well-treated here from a mark of just 116, and the pair of Irish raiders are obvious dangers.

bettrends Advice:

AMERICAN SNIPER 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

 

1.45 Cheltenham – The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2) (JH)  

Last year’s winning trainer Joe Tizzard has started the season in flying form and bids to make it back-to-back successes saddling Triple Trade. He ran a belter over course and distance last time out in a race of the exact same calibre as this, only finding the Henry De Bromhead-trained Dancing On My Own too strong on the day. He had other good horses behind on that day and is one high on the shortlist if producing a similar display this time round on softer ground, with Guy finishing fifth who also reopposes here but has been poor at Cheltenham previously. Prince Escalus proved outclassed in that same race and the same will more than likely occur here, while Madara took an early exit so it's hard to judge that form but will like the soft ground.   

The money seems to be all about Ballybreeze since it has been priced up and he has been cut from 8/1 into 11/2 at the time of writing. Sammy Drinkwater occasionally finds an odd winner or two at Cheltenham and the start of the season looks a good opportunity at success for a horse than ran in the Arkle last year. He hasn’t been seen since falling at Market Rasen and has subsequently had a wind op but remains as a potential useful chaser over fences off a mark of 120. Not sure if this is the correct race to take a chance, however. Calico has been going the other way in the market, albeit still joint favourite, and the Skelton brothers will look to capitalise here. The handicapper has not been too harsh on season debut after showing much improved form when falling at the last in the Maghull at Aintree. He no doubt has the strongest form on offer in the field but might use this race as a stepping stone for fitness.   

Walk in Clover in the only Cheltenham winner in the field when scoring at a big price to land the EBF mares final. That is by no doubt the strongest piece of form she has to offer, and she would ideally like a bit further than this. The same comments apply to No Risk Des Flos who has been seen tackling further towards the latter part of last season but is another in the field who will love if the ground gets tacky, so watch this space if it turns into a test.  

With all that said, a chance is taken on DO YOUR JOB. Despite being off top-weight, this nine-year-old stands a high chance having been given a huge chance by the handicapper, dropped another 2lb. Down to a mark he won off last February at Newcastle, he also has race fitness on his side compared to many of today’s rivals, having had a prep run in the Old Roan last month. Lucinda Russell has dropped him back down to 2m here which I would argue is a positive with his speed as he usually likes to get on with it out front. Lucinda is a master of targeting these sorts of races and this looks a good opportunity to bounce back to winning ways.  

bettrends Advice: 
DO YOUR JOB 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (Bet365, 4 places)

 

2:20 Cheltenham – The SSS Super Alloys Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (JB) 

It’s a small four-runner field for the third race of the day but this gives us a chance to take a look at each one in this Novice Chase. 

Firstly, JPR One enjoyed a successful return to the track last month, winning by two lengths at Newton Abbot. Not only was that his first run of the season, but also his first run over the larger obstacles on what was tricky conditions. It was a strong performance, defeating the much-fancied Iceo in the process. Trainer Joe Tizzard has been in good form recently, operating at a 24% strike rate for the past fortnight, and he’ll be confident of adding to that here.  

Mighty Tom was a comfortably beaten second on chase debut at Cork earlier this month but that came over 2m4f and now the eight-year-old makes the step back in trip to 2m. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles that but the majority of his runs over hurdles have come over two miles or 2m1f. He was beaten by Letsbeclearaboutit that day, who has had a fine start to life over fences so we shouldn’t read too much into that performance and it’s likely we can expect a strong showing here.  

There has been a lot of support in the market for the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Petit Tonnerre, who heads to Cheltenham for his first run of the season and also chase debut. It is also his first run over this distance, with the majority of his hurdle runs coming over distances between 2m1f and 2m4f. He ran in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham back in March, where he finished seventh of 24 so he’s no stranger to these surroundings. 

Despite the evident dangers in this race, the preference is to go with the in-form trainer duo of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero who run HOMME PUBLIC. The pair are in super form recently, operating at a 40% strike rate and they’ll certainly be confident of adding to that impressive rate here with the six-year-old son of Cokoriko. He enjoyed a fine start to life over fences, winning by a length and a quarter at Wetherby last month. It wasn’t a particularly fluent round of jumping but he can learn from that here and put that experience to good use. If he can iron out those quickly, there should certainly be a case to be made for him here. 

bettrends Advice:  
HOMME PUBLIC 1pt WIN @ 11/2 (William Hill)

 

2:55 Cheltenham – The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Although these races over the banks at Cheltenham aren’t for everyone, the fact that this race is a handicap makes it a lot more interesting than just a straight shootout between Gordon Elliott’s pair, who will no doubt be fighting out the finish again come March at level weights. It makes sense to start with the 1-2 from the Festival last year, as they head both the weights and the market. The pair must give away stacks of weight to the entire field here but are undoubtedly the class angle into the race. Galvin is the highest rated of the pair by a pound (160v159) but does have a handy 7lbs taken off by having the capable Rob James in the saddle. On his first attempt over these fences, the Grade 1-winner and 2021 Gold Cup fourth ran a cracker to lead just narrowly over the last before perhaps being outstayed by his stablemate on soft ground. Now 6lbs better off with that rival once claims are factored in, and with that experience under his belt, he has every chance to reverse the form here; it could also be argued that, at this point in his career, he is the classier of the two. He has a great record fresh, and if primed for the day by Elliott, could overturn his stablemate. Delta Work now has plenty of experience over the banks, a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner around the cross-country track, he will be bidding to emulate former stablemate Tiger Roll’s three victories come March. However, he was a beaten favourite in this contest last year and will race from a 6lb higher mark here with Keith Donoghue now in the saddle. He will strip much fitter for his Punchestown reappearance behind Minella Indo, but this is not his big day and his ‘Gold Cup’ is on that Wednesday in March.

Like mentioned above, this is neither of Gordon’s horses main target and it will prove a mammoth task to give away so much weight to the field here; the trainer is yet to win the contest, with both Tiger Roll and Delta Work beaten in the race in recent years. With the pair taking up a big chunk of the market, this opens the floor for a good value bet further down the weights. Martin Keighley’s BACK ON THE LASH really comes alive over these fences and has won the last two renewals of this race. In his hattrick bid, he is actually 2lbs lower than he was when winning last year and looks to have a cracking chance once again under Sean Bowen. He was pulled-up over this course at the Festival, but this is a completely different proposition in a handicap and he gets 24lbs off Delta Work here. He has shown nothing in his last three starts but is a different animal over these banks and has had a prep run this season so should be primed to the minute for his big target under Sean Bowen here, it is hard to see him out of the frame.

Another with winning experience over the banks is Richard Bandey’s Diesel D’Allier, who won this in 2019 and also finished third behind our selection in the 2021 renewal. He has also twice finished fourth, although well beaten, in the Cross Country Chase in March and has become a regular stalwart in this division. However, he could only finish 11th in this contest last year and was pulled-up at the Festival, so perhaps age is just starting to get the better of the ten-year-old who has been on the go since he was just four-years-old in France. He is one who relishes testing conditions though, so any further rain and worsening of the ground will only play into his hands. Peter Bowen’s Francky Du Berlais finished seventh here last year from a 7lb lower mark and was in the process of running a cracker from the front in March before refusing to jump the last, destined for a third or fourth-placed finish if completing the race. He has been kept busy throughout the Summer and should have a fitness edge on his side, and although he has his quirks, is an interesting runner from the bottom of the handicap. Latenightpass won the Aintree Foxhunters’ in 2022 and ran a great race to finish fourth in 2023 renewal of that same race. If taking to these fences under Gina Andrews, the ten-year-old is an intriguing proposition on his first crack at the banks.

bettrends Advice:

BACK ON THE LASH 0.5pts E/W @ 13/2 (Bet365, 4 places)

 

4.05 Cheltenham – The Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (WU)  

Favourites have a pretty terrible record in this race, with only two winning in the last 10 years. In fact, three of the last four winners have been priced at 33/1 and the other was 28/1. There is often too much focus given to the short priced British runner, whereas in reality, the winner often hails from the opposite end of the market. 

This year’s short-priced favourite is the deadly price crashing combination of an unexposed JP McManus trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico de Boinville. Not seen for 187 days, Impose Toi has only suffered the one defeat at the hands of one time Derby favourite, Brentford Hope. Last week he bolted up by 16 lengths off a mark of 122, so you’d like to think there is plenty of wiggle room in a mark of 121 for today’s favourite. While there is certainly more to come, this is by far the biggest and most competitive field he’s faced in his career. He’s also been off the track since May and is up against some race fit rivals. For all that he has plenty of potential, there is no value in his price and he’s worth taking on. 

Lucinda Russell has excelled with horses that have taken the long trip down the Prestbury Park in recent years. Her novice hurdler has already won twice this term after failing to win three races last season. Caithness was backed on each occasion after his debut and there is clearly a talented animal there. His win at Kelso was mightily impressive although the other market principles did disappoint. He has race fitness on his side but is now rated 120, so it will be a test to see if he can cope with the step up in class. 

Gavin Cromwell has been in flying form and arrives back at Cheltenham after cleaning up at the October meeting. His runner, Downtherefordancin, put in his best effort for quite a while at Punchestown when finishing 1/2 length behind Irish Envoy. He’s been put up 13lb for finishing second but they have put first time cheekpieces on and you’d expect him to be there or thereabouts. There are a few good-looking chances for the Irish although you’d be taking a chance on their recent form. Kitsilano looks the exact profile of previous winners. He’s been given a couple of quiet rides over in Ireland and a mark of 105 on a going day may well underestimate him. Warm In Gorey hails from the P J Rothwell stable who won this race in 2021. He’s been on the go a long time and looks as though he may be at the edge of his handicap mark. Showman looks to have been treated favourably by the handicapper compared to his Irish compatriots. A win and a narrow second mean a readjusted mark of 112 looks encouraging. Young claimer Eamonn Fitzgerald is taking off 7lb, so he’s effectively racing from a mark of 105. Obvious negatives would be the jockeys lack of experience and the trainers form, which reads 0-10 in the last two weeks.   

The preference here would be for Fergal O’Brien’s TINTINTIN. In an interview mid-week he immediately highlighted this horse as one he is looking forward to running at the meeting. The stable are operating at a 22% strike rate in the last 14 days and he is returning to the track off the back of a wind operation. He’s been a popular selection at every visit to the track and just didn’t look to be finishing out his races, so the wind operation was an obvious one. His form has taken some nice boosts and providing he’s ready to go first time up he would be a confident selection to at least grab a place. 

bettrends Advice: 
TINTINTIN 0.5pts E/W @ 11/1 (Various, 5 places)

 

NAP: DO YOUR JOB
NB: HOMME PUBLIC

[White Feather]

4 hours ago, White Feather said:

Welcome to the bettrends Cheltenham Open Meeting Service!

Welcome to our first standalone service of the 23/24 Jumps Season, and we kick the season off in good style with the Cheltenham Open Meeting, which plays host to some top-class racing over the next three days. This post contains analysis and selections for Friday’s card, while the next two posts will pour over Saturday and Sunday’s racing. There are five races selected to look through on Friday’s card at HQ, so without further ado, let’s get stuck into the racing and hopefully find ourselves some winners…

1:10 Cheltenham – The Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (JB2)

A real competitive affair kicks off the three-day Cheltenham meeting, and David Pipe has an excellent record in this contest. He has trained the winner of this race three times in the last decade (2013, 2014, and 2019), had the fourth in 2020 and trained the runner-up in 2021, so he clearly likes to target one here; the trainer also has the third most winners at this meeting in last decade with 13. The trainer has two in the field here, and both are seemingly overlooked in the market at big prices. Paricolor is no stranger to being sent off at big odds in this contest, and actually finished second here two years ago at 50/1 from a mark of 118. The seven-year-old now returns in a bid to go one better from a 3lb lower mark, but his recent form does leave a bit to be desired, winless since December of 2021. He was pulled up on the final start of last season and underwent wind surgery over the summer following a trio of runs in which his finishing effort petered out tamely. He has since been sold and had a lowkey run on the flat at the start of the month, and his new connections will be hoping he will come on for his second run following the wind operation.

It is David Pipe’s other horse, AMERICAN SNIPER, that makes appeal here though, and does look to be the stable’s apparent first string with Fergus Gillard on board (he has ridden 50 winners for the trainer at a 15% strike rate). As a four-year-old last term, he made a real bright start to life over hurdles, winning a maiden at Chepstow and backing up in a novice hurdle at Taunton. He then chased home the now-133 rated Lallygag, although was well-behind that day, before going down by just a neck to Forever William back at Taunton giving him 5lbs; that rival has returned this season with a win off a mark of 121. Although pulled up on his next start, he bounced right back to form with a career-best in first-time cheekpieces when beaten just a length by Twig at Newbury; he was giving Ben Pauling’s runner 9lbs that day, and Twig has gone on to win twice since and is now rated 140 over hurdles. He disappointed on his final two starts of the campaign, with a long season perhaps finally catching up to the young horse early in his career. The five-year-old has returned this season with two quiet efforts in mid-division, with cheekpieces left off, and has dropped down to a real tempting mark of just 122. Cheekpieces and a first-time tongue tie go on here, and Pipe may well have been targeting this contest as he looks to get AMERICAN SNIPER back on track. Still a young horse with scope for improvement, a chance is taken on him at a big price here as he does appear to be well-treated on the pick of last season’s form.

Pinnacle Peak was a winner here at the October meeting for Martin Keighley, travelling strongly through the contest and hitting the front two from home before kicking clear to win by over four lengths in a real impressive display. Now two from three this season, and a horse that has put together a good winning run previously, he is dangerous to discount from a 6lbs higher mark. He had the Irish raider Arabian King in behind that day in fifth and a 7lb swing in the weights may not be enough for Cian Collins’ seven-year-old to reverse the form. Pinnacle Peak will be looking to reverse prior form with current market leader White Rhino though, with a 14lb weight swing for an eight-length defeat at Southwell back in March. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero are in flying form right now though, operating at a whopping 40% strike rate over the past fortnight, and White Rhino has won four of his last five starts. The seven-year-old bolted up on reappearance at Carlisle, and although up another 9lbs, will take some stopping. However, it must also be noted that this is his toughest assignment to date, and he will have to improve again to win here.

Gavin Cromwell had an excellent time at the October meeting here, walking away with three winners, and he trained the well-handicapped Sweet Will to victory in this contest in 2022. Fathom Two is a real intriguing runner, getting off the mark over hurdles at the second time of asking at Downpatrick before finishing third back at the track on handicap debut, from a mark of 111, after a couple of costly mistakes late on. The British handicapper has given him a mark of 117, and he really could be anything here. One with a similarly unexposed profile is Henry De Bromhead’s Gentle And Kind, who has had just the two starts over hurdles; finishing second on debut before getting off the mark at Tramore back in August, with the 134 rated Reverend Hubert back in third. She could be extremely well-treated here from a mark of just 116, and the pair of Irish raiders are obvious dangers.

bettrends Advice:

AMERICAN SNIPER 0.5pts E/W @ 20/1 (Bet365, 5 places)

 

1.45 Cheltenham – The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2) (JH)  

Last year’s winning trainer Joe Tizzard has started the season in flying form and bids to make it back-to-back successes saddling Triple Trade. He ran a belter over course and distance last time out in a race of the exact same calibre as this, only finding the Henry De Bromhead-trained Dancing On My Own too strong on the day. He had other good horses behind on that day and is one high on the shortlist if producing a similar display this time round on softer ground, with Guy finishing fifth who also reopposes here but has been poor at Cheltenham previously. Prince Escalus proved outclassed in that same race and the same will more than likely occur here, while Madara took an early exit so it's hard to judge that form but will like the soft ground.   

The money seems to be all about Ballybreeze since it has been priced up and he has been cut from 8/1 into 11/2 at the time of writing. Sammy Drinkwater occasionally finds an odd winner or two at Cheltenham and the start of the season looks a good opportunity at success for a horse than ran in the Arkle last year. He hasn’t been seen since falling at Market Rasen and has subsequently had a wind op but remains as a potential useful chaser over fences off a mark of 120. Not sure if this is the correct race to take a chance, however. Calico has been going the other way in the market, albeit still joint favourite, and the Skelton brothers will look to capitalise here. The handicapper has not been too harsh on season debut after showing much improved form when falling at the last in the Maghull at Aintree. He no doubt has the strongest form on offer in the field but might use this race as a stepping stone for fitness.   

Walk in Clover in the only Cheltenham winner in the field when scoring at a big price to land the EBF mares final. That is by no doubt the strongest piece of form she has to offer, and she would ideally like a bit further than this. The same comments apply to No Risk Des Flos who has been seen tackling further towards the latter part of last season but is another in the field who will love if the ground gets tacky, so watch this space if it turns into a test.  

With all that said, a chance is taken on DO YOUR JOB. Despite being off top-weight, this nine-year-old stands a high chance having been given a huge chance by the handicapper, dropped another 2lb. Down to a mark he won off last February at Newcastle, he also has race fitness on his side compared to many of today’s rivals, having had a prep run in the Old Roan last month. Lucinda Russell has dropped him back down to 2m here which I would argue is a positive with his speed as he usually likes to get on with it out front. Lucinda is a master of targeting these sorts of races and this looks a good opportunity to bounce back to winning ways.  

bettrends Advice: 
DO YOUR JOB 1pt E/W @ 11/2 (Bet365, 4 places)

 

2:20 Cheltenham – The SSS Super Alloys Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (JB) 

It’s a small four-runner field for the third race of the day but this gives us a chance to take a look at each one in this Novice Chase. 

Firstly, JPR One enjoyed a successful return to the track last month, winning by two lengths at Newton Abbot. Not only was that his first run of the season, but also his first run over the larger obstacles on what was tricky conditions. It was a strong performance, defeating the much-fancied Iceo in the process. Trainer Joe Tizzard has been in good form recently, operating at a 24% strike rate for the past fortnight, and he’ll be confident of adding to that here.  

Mighty Tom was a comfortably beaten second on chase debut at Cork earlier this month but that came over 2m4f and now the eight-year-old makes the step back in trip to 2m. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles that but the majority of his runs over hurdles have come over two miles or 2m1f. He was beaten by Letsbeclearaboutit that day, who has had a fine start to life over fences so we shouldn’t read too much into that performance and it’s likely we can expect a strong showing here.  

There has been a lot of support in the market for the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Petit Tonnerre, who heads to Cheltenham for his first run of the season and also chase debut. It is also his first run over this distance, with the majority of his hurdle runs coming over distances between 2m1f and 2m4f. He ran in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham back in March, where he finished seventh of 24 so he’s no stranger to these surroundings. 

Despite the evident dangers in this race, the preference is to go with the in-form trainer duo of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero who run HOMME PUBLIC. The pair are in super form recently, operating at a 40% strike rate and they’ll certainly be confident of adding to that impressive rate here with the six-year-old son of Cokoriko. He enjoyed a fine start to life over fences, winning by a length and a quarter at Wetherby last month. It wasn’t a particularly fluent round of jumping but he can learn from that here and put that experience to good use. If he can iron out those quickly, there should certainly be a case to be made for him here. 

bettrends Advice:  
HOMME PUBLIC 1pt WIN @ 11/2 (William Hill)

 

2:55 Cheltenham – The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Although these races over the banks at Cheltenham aren’t for everyone, the fact that this race is a handicap makes it a lot more interesting than just a straight shootout between Gordon Elliott’s pair, who will no doubt be fighting out the finish again come March at level weights. It makes sense to start with the 1-2 from the Festival last year, as they head both the weights and the market. The pair must give away stacks of weight to the entire field here but are undoubtedly the class angle into the race. Galvin is the highest rated of the pair by a pound (160v159) but does have a handy 7lbs taken off by having the capable Rob James in the saddle. On his first attempt over these fences, the Grade 1-winner and 2021 Gold Cup fourth ran a cracker to lead just narrowly over the last before perhaps being outstayed by his stablemate on soft ground. Now 6lbs better off with that rival once claims are factored in, and with that experience under his belt, he has every chance to reverse the form here; it could also be argued that, at this point in his career, he is the classier of the two. He has a great record fresh, and if primed for the day by Elliott, could overturn his stablemate. Delta Work now has plenty of experience over the banks, a two-time Cheltenham Festival winner around the cross-country track, he will be bidding to emulate former stablemate Tiger Roll’s three victories come March. However, he was a beaten favourite in this contest last year and will race from a 6lb higher mark here with Keith Donoghue now in the saddle. He will strip much fitter for his Punchestown reappearance behind Minella Indo, but this is not his big day and his ‘Gold Cup’ is on that Wednesday in March.

Like mentioned above, this is neither of Gordon’s horses main target and it will prove a mammoth task to give away so much weight to the field here; the trainer is yet to win the contest, with both Tiger Roll and Delta Work beaten in the race in recent years. With the pair taking up a big chunk of the market, this opens the floor for a good value bet further down the weights. Martin Keighley’s BACK ON THE LASH really comes alive over these fences and has won the last two renewals of this race. In his hattrick bid, he is actually 2lbs lower than he was when winning last year and looks to have a cracking chance once again under Sean Bowen. He was pulled-up over this course at the Festival, but this is a completely different proposition in a handicap and he gets 24lbs off Delta Work here. He has shown nothing in his last three starts but is a different animal over these banks and has had a prep run this season so should be primed to the minute for his big target under Sean Bowen here, it is hard to see him out of the frame.

Another with winning experience over the banks is Richard Bandey’s Diesel D’Allier, who won this in 2019 and also finished third behind our selection in the 2021 renewal. He has also twice finished fourth, although well beaten, in the Cross Country Chase in March and has become a regular stalwart in this division. However, he could only finish 11th in this contest last year and was pulled-up at the Festival, so perhaps age is just starting to get the better of the ten-year-old who has been on the go since he was just four-years-old in France. He is one who relishes testing conditions though, so any further rain and worsening of the ground will only play into his hands. Peter Bowen’s Francky Du Berlais finished seventh here last year from a 7lb lower mark and was in the process of running a cracker from the front in March before refusing to jump the last, destined for a third or fourth-placed finish if completing the race. He has been kept busy throughout the Summer and should have a fitness edge on his side, and although he has his quirks, is an interesting runner from the bottom of the handicap. Latenightpass won the Aintree Foxhunters’ in 2022 and ran a great race to finish fourth in 2023 renewal of that same race. If taking to these fences under Gina Andrews, the ten-year-old is an intriguing proposition on his first crack at the banks.

bettrends Advice:

BACK ON THE LASH 0.5pts E/W @ 13/2 (Bet365, 4 places)

 

4.05 Cheltenham – The Valda Energy Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3) (WU)  

Favourites have a pretty terrible record in this race, with only two winning in the last 10 years. In fact, three of the last four winners have been priced at 33/1 and the other was 28/1. There is often too much focus given to the short priced British runner, whereas in reality, the winner often hails from the opposite end of the market. 

This year’s short-priced favourite is the deadly price crashing combination of an unexposed JP McManus trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico de Boinville. Not seen for 187 days, Impose Toi has only suffered the one defeat at the hands of one time Derby favourite, Brentford Hope. Last week he bolted up by 16 lengths off a mark of 122, so you’d like to think there is plenty of wiggle room in a mark of 121 for today’s favourite. While there is certainly more to come, this is by far the biggest and most competitive field he’s faced in his career. He’s also been off the track since May and is up against some race fit rivals. For all that he has plenty of potential, there is no value in his price and he’s worth taking on. 

Lucinda Russell has excelled with horses that have taken the long trip down the Prestbury Park in recent years. Her novice hurdler has already won twice this term after failing to win three races last season. Caithness was backed on each occasion after his debut and there is clearly a talented animal there. His win at Kelso was mightily impressive although the other market principles did disappoint. He has race fitness on his side but is now rated 120, so it will be a test to see if he can cope with the step up in class. 

Gavin Cromwell has been in flying form and arrives back at Cheltenham after cleaning up at the October meeting. His runner, Downtherefordancin, put in his best effort for quite a while at Punchestown when finishing 1/2 length behind Irish Envoy. He’s been put up 13lb for finishing second but they have put first time cheekpieces on and you’d expect him to be there or thereabouts. There are a few good-looking chances for the Irish although you’d be taking a chance on their recent form. Kitsilano looks the exact profile of previous winners. He’s been given a couple of quiet rides over in Ireland and a mark of 105 on a going day may well underestimate him. Warm In Gorey hails from the P J Rothwell stable who won this race in 2021. He’s been on the go a long time and looks as though he may be at the edge of his handicap mark. Showman looks to have been treated favourably by the handicapper compared to his Irish compatriots. A win and a narrow second mean a readjusted mark of 112 looks encouraging. Young claimer Eamonn Fitzgerald is taking off 7lb, so he’s effectively racing from a mark of 105. Obvious negatives would be the jockeys lack of experience and the trainers form, which reads 0-10 in the last two weeks.   

The preference here would be for Fergal O’Brien’s TINTINTIN. In an interview mid-week he immediately highlighted this horse as one he is looking forward to running at the meeting. The stable are operating at a 22% strike rate in the last 14 days and he is returning to the track off the back of a wind operation. He’s been a popular selection at every visit to the track and just didn’t look to be finishing out his races, so the wind operation was an obvious one. His form has taken some nice boosts and providing he’s ready to go first time up he would be a confident selection to at least grab a place. 

bettrends Advice: 
TINTINTIN 0.5pts E/W @ 11/1 (Various, 5 places)

 

NAP: DO YOUR JOB
NB: HOMME PUBLIC

American Sniper won - off to a good start and hopefully a good afternoon

[Deauville]

Missed the first one ☹️ but thanks for sharing 

[White Feather]

My pleasure, I will post Saturday's tonight, if it's in on time and same for Sunday.