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Non-League Predictions - 4th November


Darran

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Dorking v Dagenham & Redbridge
Been a big reversal of prices in the only National League game on Saturday as Dagenham have been well backed and Dorking have drifted. That means for me that the home side are well worth a bet. Obviously they let us down with a poor performance against Kidderminster the other week, but they then followed that up with a superb performance against Barnet despite losing 3-2. When they played Bromley last week they had a staggering 619 passes for nearly 67% possession albeit they didn't create a great deal. Not surprisingly neither did Bromley and it was a wonder goal very late on which gave them the 2-1 win. On Saturday Dorking beat Aldershot 2-1 and were good value for the win as well. What I will say is that Dagenham haven't always had a great deal of luck and they probably should have more points than they do. They fully deserved the win over Ebbsfleet last week, but I think this is tougher and I would have Dorking as slight favs so I have to back them at the current price. This is actually one game though where if the original prices were still available then I might well have put Dagenham up as a bet and I don't say that too often, but the prices dictate where the value is. 
 
Braintree v Havant & Waterlooville
I've been desperate to back Havant since Steve King took over although thankfully there hasn't been any value in their price as they haven't won yet for him. Amazingly they were well backed last week against Weymouth and went off odds on despite the fact they only had 5 points and as much as I wanted to back them, they were shocking value. I had watched their previous game against Aveley and I thought they played well, especially in the first half, but they ended up losing 4-1. They are better than the table suggests and King will turn it around. I suspect there is a bit of a losing culture at the club given how few games they have won in 2023 and whilst Braintree are hard to beat at home I think the price is big enough to back King to get his first win at Havant.
 
Torquay v Bath
I thought Torquay might have sacked Gary Johnson after the loss last week, but no he still clings onto his job. I thought at the start of the season he was the right man for the job, but I now think they need a change and too many times this season they have been poor. Bath are in 3rd although they have only won once in their last 5 league games, but they are still a decent side and one who are more than capable of beating Torquay if they throw in another stinker. They are a value play here.
 
Weymouth v Welling
Not the first time I've backed Welling and we have been close to collecting with them, but hopefully we do so this weekend and I think they are a huge price. They are better than their league position suggests and really should have won last week. They managed 30 shots for an xG of 3.01 and yet couldn't find the net against Chippenham. Given how often these two sides draw maybe that should be the play and to be fair to Weymouth they have only lost once in their last 7 and that was against probable title winners Yeovil. They were fortunate to get a point at Havant last week though and hopefully Welling can find their shooting boots unlike last week. They have drifted out to 3/1 and I think that is huge.
 
Prices from Friday around 10am
 
Dorking 1pt @ 9/5 with Coral, Betfred and Skybet (365 are 2/1 and take up to 11/8)
Havant 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 2/1)
Bath 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (Skybet are 12/5 and take up to 15/8)
Welling 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 2/1)
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