Scottish Open (plus QF)

[Fader]

Straight into the Scottish and another tournament for Judd to win. Qualifiers today. I'll be taking a couple. First, it's Burns to beat Burden. I pretty much lay Burden in most matches as I think he's just not very good and has poor concentration. He'll have a half-decent match every now and then but Burns did alright last week, beating Junxu and Doherty and pushing Trump for a while. He was hitting it well at the Wuhan Open.

McGill looked terrible last week. He's gone out early in a couple of tournaments and was then smashed by Anda 4-1 at the English Open, Chadha beat him 5-4 at the Wuhan Open and he struggled badly against McGuigan (4-3) He was then smashed by Saengkham. Not one 50+ break in his last two matches. Yes, he's at the Scottish Open and he'll probably improve but I can see Thomerson getting a couple of frames at the very least.

2.75pts Burns to beat Burden 8/11 Paddypower
2pts Thomerson +2.5 frames to beat McGill 5/4 Bet365

[888888]

Talk about match fixing , Zheng Fanyi up 3-1 against average Lam , leading in all 3 following frames he ended up losing.... !!!

[Fader]

4 minutes ago, 888888 said:

Talk about match fixing , Zheng Fanyi up 3-1 against average Lam , leading in all 3 following frames he ended up losing.... !!!

It's not like it's not happened before with Chinese players eh

[Fader]

A few that I'm going with today :

2.5pts Craigie to beat McGill 11/10 Bet365
2pts Wells to beat N.Robertson 3/1 Bet365
-------------------------------------------------
1pt 4-fold - Craigie, Junxu, G. Wilson, Wells +2.5 handicap 11.5/1 Paddypower

[Fader]

McGill needed 2 snookers to get the fourth frame and Craigie let him have them. Pathetic. Should have been 2-2 at the break. Now 3-1.

[Fader]

ah well, let down by Craigie there. Wells beat Robbo easily. Another thrashing against Neil. No idea where his head is at but he obviously wants to be back in Aus.

[charliepie]

Some shockers today, Williams and Brecel out as well.

[888888]

Trump is on a 22 match winning streak ; insane ; when will he lose ?

If he gets behind by 2 frames i'll bet against him because the laws of probability tell me this cannot go on forever

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by 888888

[Fader]

maybe Maguire is the man today lol

[Torque]

3 hours ago, 888888 said:

Trump is on a 22 match winning streak ; insane ; when will he lose ?

If he gets behind by 2 frames i'll bet against him because the laws of probability tell me this cannot go on forever

 

That's classic gambler's fallacy. The idea that winning streak has to end and a losing streak has to end. Of course these streaks do end eventually. but it's better to consider the merits of each match rather than get caught up in how a streak can't carry on.

[Fader]

then Maguire beats him lol

[Fader]

I'm going with 3 in the 11:30 matches. The Maguire/Day one is a hard one to call because Day hit a 147 in this event and that normally means that a player is playing well and carving out the right shots. He also has a good recent record against Maguire. However, Maguire is playing better and beating better opponents and so I'll side with him. I also think Junxu is worth backing. He beat Ding in their only h2h. McGill has improved his form massively in this event after looking hopeless a week prior. He can trouble Ronnie. Who is still coasting really in 2nd gear.

2.75pts Maguire to beat Day 8/11 Bet365
2pts Junxu to beat Ding 13/8 Bet365
2pts McGill to beat O'Sullivan 11/4 Coral
----------------------------------------------
1pt treble - Junxu, McGill and Hawkins -1.5 9/1 Bet365

[888888]

i am going with McGill +2,5 frames because Ronnie doesn't seem that sharp ;

Maguire to win to surf on his wave from beating Trump ;

and Barry Hawkins - 1,5 frame to beat the Thai player because there is a bit of a gap between the two players so 6-3 or 6-4 would be absolutely nothing strange

[Fader]

35 minutes ago, 888888 said:

i am going with McGill +2,5 frames because Ronnie doesn't seem that sharp ;

Maguire to win to surf on his wave from beating Trump ;

and Barry Hawkins - 1,5 frame to beat the Thai player because there is a bit of a gap between the two players so 6-3 or 6-4 would be absolutely nothing strange

yep, like the +2.5. Agree with those 3.

[888888]

Good luck to us , Ding yesterday was bad but he came back from behind so he might be very confident so i don't have the balls to go against him 

[Fader]

4 hours ago, 888888 said:

Good luck to us , Ding yesterday was bad but he came back from behind so he might be very confident so i don't have the balls to go against him 

Honestly, I wish I went Junxu and McGill on the plus handicap and Hawkins and Maguire on the minus in a 4-fold.

* I'm glad I didn't now. After a good start from McGill and Junxu, they both fall to pieces and go from 2-2 in both matches to both being beaten 6-2 😐 *

Only Maguire comes through.

[charliepie]

Ronnie was awful today, Ali must be kicking himself as he probably should have won.

[charliepie]

Ford vs Brown, probably the most unforeseen semi-final of the season. Both played well and it would be nice for Tom to bag his first ranking title on Sunday and get an entry to the Champions next week!

[Fader]

I think the only way Ford wins it is if Anda beats Ronnie. Your first ranking final, the last person you want to play is Ronnie. Ronnie leads the h2h 6-2 and the only 2 wins for Ford were 'bingo matches' in the shootout and wst pro series

[four-leaf]

What's on the menu today @Fader?

[Fader]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

What's on the menu today @Fader?

Ronnie v Anda. 
very little value out there for me in a match. I thought about going for centuries bet but I’m more looking forward to the Darts today I think. 
you having a bet? 

[four-leaf]

No not on snooker

[charliepie]

From 6-4 up Ronnie was dismal, tomorrow's final is going to be big for whoever wins as it'll be their first title and also give them entry to the champions.

I wonder if Ronnie will ever win another ranking title? It would take him up to 40 which is a nice round number. Same goes for Higgins I suppose as he's been patchy lately.

[charliepie]

Well done to Anda, a big day for him, definitely the new Chinese number 1 this season anyway!

[four-leaf]

10 hours ago, charliepie said:

Well done to Anda, a big day for him, definitely the new Chinese number 1 this season anyway!

Yep that was pretty awesome by him, he even threw in a 147

[ThunderDan9]

Absolutely world class performance... just... where was THIS Anda for a decade? 

[charliepie]

Oh yeah, I forgot about the magnificent 147 break!

[Fader]

to be a bit of a moaner, I've been betting on Anda for the last few months and it really annoys me that I didn't pick him out for that event. Especially being in China, too. Doh! well done, Anda.

[charliepie]

I thought you would have been on him too, annoying when you miss out!

[Fader]

The final tournament of the year (some German Masters qualifiers on 18th-22nd December) but the final tournament which will give us a winner, of the year. It's also the cut-off for the Grand Prix qualification. (15th-21st Jan).

It's that cut-off which should inspire certain players. Mainly Luca Brecel, who is 2k from the cut-off and Kyren Wilson, who's 4k adrift. Si Jiahui has snuck into the top 32 after a good Shootout but he'll need to find some points to stay there. The likes of Un Nooh and Milkins will need at least one win to stay in the top 32 I reckon.

With that in mind and also looking at the draw, I'll take the following:

1pt e/w S.Murphy 20/1 Bet365
1pt e/w K.Wilson 22/1 Bet365
----------------------------------------------------
0.5pts e/w Vafaei 33/1 Paddypower
0.5pts e/w Carter 66/1 Paddypower