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World Grand Prix


daveg

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2 minutes ago, ThunderDan9 said:

Wow, a 156 checkout to win the game! What a character. Thanks for the pick Fader, and I hope Dobey builds on this great win to go further in the tournament!

no probs. Glad he got the win. You'd have to fancy him to beat Cullen or Smith and then Wright next round, too. 

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6 hours ago, daveg said:

Good write up Fader.
 

I was actually tempted with Wright tonight, he’s had a pretty dreadful season, but there have been a few sparks of life in recent weeks. The over 8.5 180s in the Smith v Cullen match also interested me, the line is high but I do expect it to be quality match and both players are pretty consistent 180 hitters.
 

However, I’m going to try and keep things simple tonight and have an Acca on all four matches going 4 or more sets, which pays just under 3/1 at Bet365

That sums up my tournament so far … the two bets I liked but didn’t back go on to win, the one I did back loses by a whisker.

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10 minutes ago, daveg said:

That sums up my tournament so far … the two bets I liked but didn’t back go on to win, the one I did back loses by a whisker.

Yeah, always the way. The 180 bet seemed an obvious one but I still think it was too high cause both players have the ability to be flat throughout a match. 

In regard to Wright though, he hit multiple 100+ checkouts. Huge checkouts throughout. He looked out of it at one point. I really think Humphries will probably beat him because you can't keep doing those checkouts where as scoring seems to stay with a player. 

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8 minutes ago, daveg said:

Yeah agree Humphries should do Wright tomorrow - a bit surprised Wright has been priced up as big as 7/4 though

Yep, for sure 7/4 too big.  Humphries most 180s and wright win perhaps as an outsider bet for value 

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Four more matches tonight. I think the first two matches look like a bit of a breeze for both Price & Smith. I'm not sure there is too much worth going for in those matches. The third match is a bit more interesting. I think Humphries beats Wright with a set to spare. Wright had huge checkouts last night and that was the difference between the two. I'm not sure you can assume that it will happen again and I think Humphries scoring is too much for Wright.

The final match is the one I'm looking forward to most. Dobey takes on Cullen. For me, it's all about Dobey winning and Cullen having the most 180s. Cullen hit 8 in 4 sets yesterday whilst Dobey hit 6 in 5 sets. I think Dobey wins the match but perhaps Cullen wins the 180 battle.

4.5pts Humphries (-1.5 sets) to beat Wright evens Paddypower
2.5pts Dobey to beat Cullen / Cullen most 180s 12/5 Bet365
-----------------------------------------------------
2pts 4-fold - Humphries -1.5 / Dobey / Price -1.5 / Smith -1.5 13/2 Paddypower
1pt outsider 4-fold - Price win and most 180s / Smith win and most 180s / Humphries win and most 180s / Over 8.5 180s Cullen v Dobey 13/1 Paddypower

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Skybet is offering Price and Smith both to win with a -1.5 handicap and most 180s for 6/1 so I'll be taking that tonight, also. If anybody fancies Peter Wright to beat Humphries tonight then their other boost looks like a decent option. It's Price, Smith, Dobey and Wright all to win at 13/2

3pts Price and Smith both to win either 3-0 or 3-1 and get the most 180s 6/1 Skybet
 

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2 hours ago, daveg said:

I’m just having a small Acca tonight on Price -1.5 sets / Smith win and most 180s / Humphries win and most 180s / over 3.5 sets in Dobey v Cullen. Pays just over 7/1 - let’s hope it doesn’t fail at the first hurdle like yesterday.

Good luck Dave. Sounds good to me. 

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1 minute ago, ThunderDan9 said:

Smith 3-0 too, and he delivers the 180's at last for daveg!

Now comes the good part as a spectator.

Next match is where I did not dare to follow your picks... I couldn't decide on the winner, so I passed on it. Good luck to you both with the Humphries pick, if he plays at his best he will surely win!

Fingers crossed that Humphries wins 3-0 or 3-1 with lots of 180s

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Price is shorter than I thought he would be... then again, he plays well, and the format suits him too, he is hitting the double 20 like a machine... and Smith hasn't been really tested yet, he had the easiest path from all the semi-finalists.

The other game, I'm very slightly leaning towards Cullen... his odds are almost what Wright had the previous round against Humphries, and he is better than this version of Wright IMO.

And I think neither of these 4 players loses 4-0 or 4-1, so over 5,5 in both games can be tried at around 2,7.

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