Hugh Taylor Selections

[Sporting Sam]

9.30 - all selections online

MASTER OF COMBAT produced three of his best efforts to date in his three runs at Wolverhampton last winter, and he’s handicapped to run very well if he returns to a similar level of form in the extended 1m handicap (Wolverhampton 6.00).

He hasn’t made much impact on turf this summer and ran poorly at Ripon last time, when he was probably unsuited by the track.

However, it had been a similar case around a year ago, as he had beaten an aggregate of one rival in his three previous turf starts before running three big races round here.

He was beaten a nose on the second of those runs, and on the third occasion he chased home War In Heaven, who has won five more races on the all-weather and is now rated 23lb higher, and Miss Bluebelle, who had bolted up over the same course and distance on her previous start, but hasn’t raced on the all-weather subsequently.

Master Of Combat needs to prove that he can re-find that sort of form, but he’s 9lb lower here than for that last Wolverhampton run and will be a big player if the return to this track sparks a revival. 

In the 1m7f handicap at Ayr (5.37) CANTALUPO BELLA can confirm that she’s well handicapped over staying distances.

She showed much-improved form stepped up beyond 1m4f at Nottingham last time, finishing second in a race where the field finished well strung out.

The winner Manxman has won all three subsequent starts and is now rated 79, having won off 56 that day, and Cantalupo Bella did well to get as close as she did to him.

She pulled nine lengths clear of the third, Tarbat Ness, who won on similar ground next time, with a further 20 lengths back to the remainder.

Clansman is a noted mudlark and should run another big race with the ground set to be in his favour, but he might face a tough task trying to concede 20lb to Cantalupo Bella. 

CHALK MOUNTAIN produced a career-best effort at Kempton last time, and with his stable going well he looks to have a good chance in the 7f handicap at Wolverhampton (7.00).

He was poorly drawn at Kempton and his track position suffered accordingly, and in the circumstances he did really well to sustain his run to the line, collared in the final 100 yards by the in-from King Of Ithaca.

Chalk Mountain has a better draw today, his sole win to date came on his only start here, and his trainer Stuart Kittow has been enjoying a purple patch, with three winners and seven placed horses from 19 runners since the start of September.

Flatley didn’t get the run of the race when selected in this column here last time and could bounce back, but I’m reluctant to support him at shortish odds again from a wider draw given he needs things to drop right.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

5.37 AYR

1pt win CANTALUPO BELLA (11-4 general)

6.00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1pt win MASTER OF COMBAT (12-1 Bet Victor, bet365, 11-1 general)

7.00 WOLVERHAMPTON

1pt win CHALK MOUNTAIN (100-30 bet365, 3-1 & 11-4 general)

All prices correct at time of publishing

[MCLARKE]

Chalk Mountain currently best price 3/1 or 4.4 on Betfair

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Chalk Mountain currently best price 3/1 or 4.4 on Betfair

Wins at BSP of 5.53 

[MCLARKE]

Kempton 6.30

Never Just A Dream

Betfair 4.30

[Sporting Sam]

Published 9.09, 9.20, 9.44 - all selections online

DESERT GAMES shaped very well at Goodwood last time on his debut for a new yard, and if he’s in the same form at Nottingham today (3.42) following a two-month absence he could go close.

He did take a long time to get going at Goodwood, but he finished very well into fourth. The significance of that run was that it was a draw-bias race, those that raced towards the far side seemingly strongly favoured, and Desert Games finished first of the three horses that raced closest to the stands side.

The other two in that group, Democracy Dilemma and Desperate Hero, have both won in really good style subsequently.

It’s true that Desert Games was never a threat at Goodwood and only passed the other two in his group in the closing stages, but Goodwood is a sharp downhill track and even on soft ground the winning time was well under 61 seconds, and with the going at Nottingham currently described as heavy, soft in places, and a headwind forecast, this race is more likely to be won in a time in the 64-65 seconds bracket.

The absence since that stable debut is a concern, but perhaps connections have been waiting for the right race on softish ground, and if he’s in the same form as at Goodwood Desert Games could be a big player. 

Mischief Magic is unsurprisingly favourite in the 6f conditions event at Kempton (6.30), but although his Sirenia Stakes win last September over this course and distance came in a good time figure, it wasn’t any better than those achieved by NEVER JUST A DREAM on the all-weather last winter, and the latter is available at significantly bigger odds. 

Never Just A Dream recorded three big time figures on an artificial surface last winter, winning easily on each occasion, whilst showing very little in three turf starts. 

He produced an especially dominant display when beating some smart horses in a Fast Track Qualifier at Newcastle last October, but hasn’t been seen on a synthetic surface subsequently. 

He couldn’t replicate that from in two starts on dirt overseas (subsequently reported to have a minor injury), but he looks an out-and-out artificial surface performer and he might be able to confirm that theory here. 

On the face of it the handicapper looks to have GULMARG right where he wants him, but the return to 1m on the all-weather (Kempton 7.30) might see him eke out a little improvement.

He recorded a very good time figure over this course and distance as a two-year-old, just unlucky to run into one who was ahead of his mark.

His two all-weather runs this year have both come over 7f here and despite running very well both times, on each occasion he has left the impression he might be better suited by a return to 1m.

His latest run here in August has worked out well and off the same mark he’s entitled to go close, especially back over this trip.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

3.42 NOTTINGHAM

1pt win DESERT GAMES (15-2 bet365, 7-1 general)

6.30 KEMPTON

1pt win NEVER JUST A DREAM (4-1, 7-2, 100-30 general)

7.30 KEMPTON

1pt win GULMARG (11-1 bet365, 10-1 general)

[Sporting Sam]

Lots of questions about all of these runners I’ve done a bit of digging and think that two runners have above average claims here.

first up is theme park who looks the best of these closely followed by royal pleasure 

both get free energy from artician a non runner.

 

Gulmag deserves a chance too so a small win on him.

Gulmag

theme park

win

Royal Pleasure 

each way

i will be having twice the amount each way here than the other two.

 

[Gary66]

On 9/25/2023 at 7:20 PM, MCLARKE said:

I have analysed Hugh's selections for this year based on BSP. I have used BSP for 2 reasons. Firstly it is difficult to get on at the prices advised. Secondly I have very few options left with traditional bookmakers and sooner or later all my betting will have to be on the exchanges.

My thought process was that these selections would be overbet and therefore there would be an edge in backing other selections.

In fact this is not the case. The AE of his selections is 1.05. 

I have ignored the EW selections because I assume these will have taken advantage of extra places.

For 2023 there have been 68 wins from 361 runs with a profit of 13.26 points.

For those selections advised between 5/2 and 7/1 there have been 48 wins from 186 runs with a profit of 27.09 points.

I won't get too carried away at this stage, I'll go back a few years and see how this pans out.

Very slim chance of getting the price in years gone by I always looked for Hugh’s tips a few years ago he made huge profits , now I often look to take on his tips as they dictate the market

[Sporting Sam]

Just now, Gary66 said:

Very slim chance of getting the price in years gone by I always looked for Hugh’s tips a few years ago he made huge profits , now I often look to take on his tips as they dictate the market

This. 

[Sporting Sam]

The breeders cup turf winner seemed a no brainer in the race where the tipster put up an unplaced horse.  in support of Never Just A Dream, mischief makers all weather form was described as no better than performances here by never just a dream. 
Not mentioning group form from the states  seems to have been  a bit of a disservice to unsuspecting punters. ….

bookmakers otherwise might have been filled in by punters. And that can be sometimes where a very clear conflict of interest lies ( when you are paid by a bookmaker) Tom seagal has the exact same problem.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[MCLARKE]

Lingfield 2.10

SO SLEEPY

5.70 Betfair

[Sporting Sam]

Published 9.06, 9.11 - no further selections

SO SLEEPY might be able to add to what is becoming a profile of contrasts in the 5f handicap at Lingfield today (2.10).

She has raced eight times, with two of those runs having come at Lingfield, and she has finished stone last on all six runs elsewhere.

However, she won on her racecourse debut here last year, and ran a big race on her return to this course and distance last time.

Slowly into stride, as is her wont, she was unsuited by the steady pace, but made up plenty of ground towards the far rail to go down only narrowly behind two rivals that were always prominent.

Clearly her tendency to miss the break is a concern, especially given she’s drawn low, but there looks to be a lot more pace in today’s race and she might find the field coming back to her more on this occasion.

Racing off the same mark as last time (she’ll be 2lb higher from Saturday), she should go well if she doesn’t get too far behind in the early stages. 

HAYMAKER drops in grade at Salisbury this afternoon in the 6f handicap (4.30), and with testing ground no issue for him, indeed probably a positive, he looks to have a good chance.

He produced one of his best performances when third on heavy ground at Newbury on his seasonal debut in April, disputing the lead at a strong pace and keeping on well as his fellow pacesetters dropped away.

He has produced a number of other runs this year that would give him a good chance here, all in class 2 or class 3 company, and he left the impression he was still in form when a creditable ninth in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last time, pulling a long way clear of the other three horses that stayed towards the stands side.

There haven’t been many meetings at Salisbury over the last couple of years on really testing ground, but there must be a chance that we’ll see the jockeys make the stands-side switch which has been customary on soft or heavy ground, and if that’s the case Haymaker could be well positioned in stall 11. He looks to have plenty in his favour here and should go well.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

2.10 LINGFIELD

1pt win SO SLEEPY (7-2 & 100-30 general)

4.30 SALISBURY

1pt win HAYMAKER (9-2 general)

All prices correct at time of publishing - please see top of article

[Sporting Sam]

Published 9.19, 9.30 & 9.59 - all selections online

SPIRIT GENIE has been given a chance by the handicapper and might be worth chancing in the 1m handicap at Newcastle (5.45) on his debut for connections who have already achieved plenty of success with a similar acquisition this year.

Spirit Genie had some useful form as a two-year-old, winning a Roscommon maiden, beaten half a length in a nursery off a mark of 87 on his next start, and then running as well as could have been expected when seventh in a Listed event at Dundalk on his only all-weather start to date.

He didn’t make much impact in his two runs earlier this year, but those were ultra-competitive early-season three-year-old handicaps, and having shown his hand as a two-year-old he faced a stiff task off marks in the low 90s.

He’s racing off a much more realistic mark of 85 here, and his profile does bear some similarities to that of Probe, who had also been struggling off marks in the low 90s in Ireland before winning on his debut for the same connections off a much-reduced mark at Wolverhampton.

His entry in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions’ Day later this month looks optimistic as he’s unlikely to get a run even with a penalty, but he might still be worth a speculative each-way bet here off his reduced mark.

ELEVEN ELEVEN shaped as if back in form last time following a break, and he might be able to confirm that he’s well handicapped at present in the 1m handicap at Newcastle (6.15), especially if he settles better than last time.

He was strong in the market for that latest start and arguably shaped best, leading going well despite having pulled hard in the early stages and still producing a good time figure for the grade in finishing second.

He runs off the same mark here, and with two wins (both off higher marks) and three seconds from just seven starts at Newcastle, he looks poised to add to his fine course record.

It’s no surprise to see Rohaan a strong favourite in the 6f handicap at Ascot (5.05), plenty in his favour apart from the price, but I’ve always thought YAASER’s running style would be well suited to this track and at much bigger odds he might be an each-way value alternative to the favourite.

Yaaser is a strong-travelling hold-up horse, just the type to go well on the straight track here, and although all his wins have come over 7f+ and all bar one of them round a bend, he certainly travels well enough to suggest a strongly-run 6f would suit him. He also does have plenty of form on a straight track too, such as when an unlucky-in-running second at Doncaster in August.

He has had one try here before, when he didn’t get the strong pace that suits despite the big field, and he was only beaten around three lengths despite racing off a mark of 85, fully 10lb out of the handicap that day.

He’s racing off 78 here, looked at the top of his game when winning at Southwell last time, and he looks overpriced this morning, having been just 10-1 when withdrawn after becoming upset in the stalls prior to his intended run in the Ayr Gold Cup a fortnight ago.

It’s possible that his low draw might be a disadvantage, but at the prices, he still looks worth chancing.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

5.05 ASCOT

1pt each-way YAASER (40-1 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill - all paying 5 places - 33-1 Sky Bet - paying 6 places)

5.45 NEWCASTLE

1pt each-way SPIRIT GENIE (40-1 bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Coral, 33-1 Sky Bet - all paying 4 places)

6.15 NEWCASTLE

1pt win ELEVEN ELEVEN (9-4 general

[MCLARKE]

Eleven Eleven 3.30 on betfair

[Sporting Sam]

30 - all selections online

LADY BOBA stands out as potentially the best-handicapped runner in the 1m2f fillies’ handicap at Newmarket (1.30), and she looks worth chancing on her return from a ten-week break.

She shaped really well when runner-up on her second start at Chelmsford in July, one of three that pulled a long way clear off a steady pace, producing an excellent time figure/sectional combination. The winner is now rated 102, and although Lady Boba was receiving 12lb from him, that was still a very promising performance.

She wasn’t asked to do much more than win in a steadily-run 1m4f event on soft ground at Ffos Las next time, easing to the lead and the winning margin in no respect a reflection of her superiority, her rider easing her as soon as she had gone two lengths ahead.

She won’t have been an easy filly for the handicapper to assess, the weight she was receiving from the two colts at Chelmsford and her narrow margin of victory at Ffos Las perhaps meaning he’s had to rate her at something like face value, whereas on each of her last two starts she might have been forced to run to a higher level granted a stronger pace.

The ground will be much faster than she has encountered on turf today, but her full brothers handle fats ground well.

Looking at her price history this morning, it would seem she’s available at around half the odds quoted yesterday afternoon, but as I’ve said many times in this column, those early prices merely seem to serve as an early guide for bookmakers and can’t be taken too seriously until the markets have settled down. I think there’s a chance that Lady Boba could prove capable of being a stakes filly in time, so off a mark of 82 she has to be worth chancing here, despite the slight concerns about her absence and the ground.

In the extended 1m nursery at Wolverhampton (5.30) it might be worth taking a chance on ROYAL EXPERT, now she steps up in trip and returns to the all-weather.

Confidence is tempered by the fact that she ran no sort of a race over 6f at Brighton last time in what looked a weak race, but she is bred to want much further, her dam having won over an extended 1m3f on testing ground.

Moreover, by some way her best effort to date came on her only all-weather start, which came when she finished strongly into third on her debut at Chelmsford over 6f in June.

Her stable has a good recent record in all-weather nurseries (four individual winners from just 13 total runs in the last two seasons), and it might be that the return to the all-weather and the step up in trip will see Royal Expert in a different light.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

1.30 NEWMARKET

1pt win LADY BOBA (13-2 Coral, William Hill, 6-1 general)

5.30 WOLVERHAMPTON

1pt win ROYAL EXPERT (14-1 general)

[Sporting Sam]

Let’s not mention that Charlie and mark Johnston have a course and distance winner as top weight here or that they have over twenty winners in the last month.

[Sporting Sam]

Hugh Taylor tips

Lady Boba

Royal Expert

Sam’s Selections

Madame Ambassador won 10/1 KAARESS WON 6/1

 

Two selected winners from Hugh Taylor’s chosen races 

I couldn’t have Lady Boba at Newmarket and I certainly couldn’t have Royal Expert at Wolverhampton tonight Royal Expert ran badly last time out in a poor race, so was in bad form. Hugh Taylor’s rationale was that she was bred to appreciate further and ran well on only all weather start at Southwell. Several horses in the race were bred to appreciate further. Comparing Southwell to Wolverhampton doesn’t compute. It is like comparing Newcastle to Dundalk.

Royal Expert’s  Dam won on testing ground over 1 mile 3 f. In no way could Wolverhampton be described as a testing surface in a way that old and new Southwell can be. So the obvious thing with Royal expert would be to wait for a return to form or switch to the same surface and conditions that the Dam won on.
. This inevitably contributed to hat trick seeking top weight  Kaaress going off at 6/1 as top weight in a nursery my selection and he duly obliged sweeping through on a very good mark. Don’t rule out a four timer if he goes open aged.

Madame Ambassador was a pretty obvious choice for a rudely in form yard who are ramping up winners by the dozen. This runner was put up by  fellow forumite  earlier today at 33/1.

I settled for 10/1 as I’m an “at the post” race reader using physics and draw data and form of horse and yard along with prevailing conditions and visual evidence. Several of these factors simply are not there at 9am ante post.

Edited October 7, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

online

CATTON LADY showed much-improved form at Pontefract last time following a break whilst shaping even better than the bare result, and she can take advantage of what looks a very favourable mark in the 6f nursery over the same course and distance (2.30).

On her return from a three-month absence here last month, she was asked to take on the colts under her penalty for winning a minor Catterick event on her debut. She was trying to launch a challenge up the inside rail turning for home, but was repeatedly short of room at a crucial stage.

Once finally in the clear at the furlong pole, she stayed on strongly into second in a race where the first three pulled clear and all shaped really well. She recorded the only sub-13 second final furlong on the card according to the published sectional times, the fact that her final furlong was faster than her penultimate one of particular note over this stiff uphill finish.

The time and sectionals combination compared favourably with those of the three-year-old handicap that preceded it and the handicapper looks to have erred on the side of leniency in only raising her initial mark by 4lb to 73. Proven over course and distance and on the ground, she looks to have a strong chance.

Invincible Molly is her main market rival, and given Ralph Beckett’s excellent overall record here that’s not surprising, but he’s only one from 12 in nurseries at this track over the last 20 years (as opposed to his terrific record in maidens and novices), and Invincible Molly did take a long time to get on top despite a good gallop when winning at York in what looked an ordinary fillies’ novice for the track. 

KING OF TONGA might have gone off the boil, but his record at Pontefract makes him of interest at double-figure prices in the first division of the 6f handicap (5.05).

His form figures here read 1122, and although all those runs have come over 5f he’s versatile in terms of trip and indeed won over 7f on heavy ground in his younger days.

This looks a significantly weaker race than the last three he has contested, he wasn’t knocked about at Chester last time on very deep ground, and if the return to Pontefract, drop in grade and refitting of blinkers helps him return to form, he’s handicapped to go close.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

2.30 PONTEFRACT

2pts win CATTON LADY (4-1 & 7-2 general, 3-1 bet365)

5.05 PONTEFRACT

1pt win KING OF TONGA (14-1 general)

All

[Sporting Sam]

I’ll stick a line up top here, which means I can nip in here near the time and make selections if I wish on Hugh’s races today. So be aware any picks on these races will be up here.

09 - no further selections

ALSEEYERTHERE has shaped a bit better than the bare result on each of her last two starts and might go well in the second division of the 7f handicap at Leicester (5.40).

She didn’t get anything like a clear run when 5th at Haydock on her penultimate start but still wasn’t beaten all that far, leaving the impression she might have finished second with a clear run.

She made her challenge away from where the race unfolded at Redcar last time, the finish dominated by those that raced more prominently and close to the far rail.

She has a bit of a turn of foot on her day for one of her relatively lowly mark, and she looks to have reasonable prospects in an open race.

I thought SHAKEELA shaped with a bit of promise on her debut at Doncaster last month and it won’t be surprising if she takes a significant step forward from that effort on her second start at Southwell today (4.50).

That Doncaster maiden that she contested on her debut was a relatively valuable Class 2 event, and she didn’t shape badly having been keen in the early stages and then shown signs of greenness in the middle stages of the race.

She left the impression the penny was starting to drop in the closing stages despite her rider very much accepting matters, and all in all shaped like one who might take a step forward next time.

She runs here in preference to her other engagement this week in a Class 3 event at Newmarket, and she was given an entry last month in next year’s Irish 1000 Guineas. Normal improvement from her Doncaster run would see her be a major player here.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

4.50 SOUTHWELL

1pt win SHAKEELA (4-1 bet365, Sky Bet, 7-2 general)

5.40 LEICESTER

1pt win ALSEEYERTEHER (10-1 BetVictor, William Hill, 9-1 general, 11-1 bet365)

All

[MCLARKE]

Shakeela, currently 3.30 on Betfair

[Sporting Sam]

Leicester 5:40

TUSCAN

Win

David O’ Merara

won off 87 in a class three stakes last year.

and the draw data horse

Direct Hit

win

Tim Easterby runner these horses are trained to win at will by this trainer at his time of choosing.

THE WAY TO THE STARS

Each way

*****************************
on the day I didn’t have any winners at all in the uk, a five timer in Ireland was welcome. Tuscan was touched off a nose after a stewards inquiry.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[MCLARKE]

8.30 Kempton MAGICINTHEMAKING (3/1)

Currently 3.80 on Betfair

[Sporting Sam]

A busy busy day today and it is a Thursday physics wise a big big day

here’s Hugh’s two from Wednesday 

Get £20 in free bets

Published 9.01 & 9.09 - all selections online

WHERE’S FREDDY was stepped up to a mile last time at Yarmouth and almost followed up his previous Newmarket win, even though it took him a while to find his stride, and with that form working out well and conditions likely to provide a good test, he looks to have a solid chance in the 1m handicap at Nottingham (4.22).

He had been first off the bridle when winning at Newmarket over 7f and it was a similar story, despite the step up in trip on softish ground at Yarmouth. He came under pressure with well over two furlongs remaining but finished best of all, almost collaring the winner Dream Pirate in the dying strides.

The winner was showing much-improved form in first-time blinkers and won easily next time at Bath. The third Kalamunda romped home when heavily backed at Southwell yesterday, and with the front three having pulled a long way clear of the remainder, it’s not hard to conclude that Where’s Freddy, who is only 2lb higher here, could also be extremely well handicapped at present.

The two that head the market in the 7f handicap at Kempton (8.30) ran against each other last time over 6f, and with No News finishing strongly into fifth over a trip short of his best, it’s tempting to think he’ll reverse the form with runner-up MAGICINTHEMAKING, but I’m not convinced that will happen.

Magicinthemaking, returning from a five-month absence, disputed a strong gallop in the early stages, significantly quicker than any of the other 6f races on the card, including the Class 2 conditions event.

The other four or five horses that were up with the early pace, including three that started at single-figure odds, all dropped away in the straight and were beaten a long way, but Magicinthemaking was only collared close to the finish, having been three lengths clear at the furlong pole.

She’s a nine-year-old now, but that run suggests she has returned at the top of her game, and with her last four wins having come over today’s course and distance, she might be hard to beat from a favourable draw.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

4.22 NOTTINGHAM

1pt win WHERE’S FREDDY (11-2 general, 6-1 William Hill)

8.30 KEMPTON

1pt win MAGICINTHEMAKING (3-1 & 11-4 general)

[Sporting Sam]

I have massive commitments elsewhere but if any one can cut and paste Hugh’s selections for me I’d be grateful and then I can break it all down later. Work with me here someone.

Published 9.02, 9.10 & 9.17 - all selections online

LAURA’S BREEZE shaped really well when third on her all-weather debut at Chelmsford a week ago and it’s not out of the question that she could reverse the form with runner-up Blue Flame over the same course and distance today (Chelmsford 5.00).

Sent off at 33-1 last week on the back of some uninspiring turf efforts, Laura’s Breeze was dropped in from her high draw and was still last entering the home straight, some five or six lengths behind the leader.

However, she picked up in really good style under a hands-and-heels ride up the far rail, to the extent that she was only just over a length behind the winner and runner-up at the line.

It’s possible that today’s race could be a carbon copy of last week, given that Blue Flame might not face much opposition for the lead, but that was Laura’s Breeze’s first run on the all-weather and there might be more to come.

She’s a significantly bigger price than Blue Flame at the time of writing, and if she doesn’t find herself quite so far back this time, she should have a good chance.

It’s not surprising to see Elshaameq trading as favourite in the 1m2f handicap at Chelmsford (8.30), as he’s been repeatedly shaping better than the bare result on the all-weather and his stable has been in good form. There’s just a doubt about whether he’ll be as well suited by Chelmsford as Newcastle though, and at the prices, preference is for TWILIGHT GUEST, who ran a huge race over this course and distance two outings ago.

Twilight Guest is still a maiden, but he shaped like a certain future winner when second to another big improver in Frankfreya here in August. He had to wait for a run, having been held up at the rear, but he and the winner pulled right away from a fair yardstick in the final 150 yards.

Twilight Guest couldn’t repeat that form back on turf at Leicester on testing ground, but he looks worth the chance to confirm the promise of that previous all-weather run.

THE GAY BLADE has run big races on each of his last two starts whilst shaping as if a step back up in trip might suit, so he’s of interest in the extended 7f handicap at Ayr (3.20).

He’s exposed as just moderate but seems to have taken well to the fitting of a hood this summer, overcoming a poor draw to win a 7f classified event at Musselburgh in August and continuing to run well in handicap company subsequently.

His last two placed runs over 6f were both very solid efforts in Class 5, the latter one coming on testing ground, and back down in 0-60 grade he ought to give another good account.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

3.20 AYR

1pt win THE GAY BLADE (9-2 bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, 4-1 general)

5.00 CHELMSFORD CITY

1pt win LAURA’S BREEZE (6-1 & 11-2 general)

8.30 CHELMSFORD CITY

1pt win TWILIGHT GUEST (12-1 general)

All prices correct at time of publishing - please see top of article

Hugh

Edited October 12, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

I’m not sure wether to just post Hugh’s selection box rather than the rationale as he isn’t making a lot of sense and sounding a bit like pricewise. But like me Hugh has his moments and it is probably best to see what’s his thought process. 
 

Published 9.05 & 9.53 - all selections online

If there was a smile on Henry Candy’s face this morning as he saw how much overnight rain there had been at Newmarket, it won’t have been just to fool the public, as TEARS OF A CLOWN very much comes into the reckoning for the Cornwallis Stakes (1.50) now that conditions are set to be testing.

She was a runaway winner at Windsor in May on deep ground in a very respectable time for an early-season juvenile on that sort of ground, the fact that her three rivals chose to go to the far rail unlikely to have had a significant bearing on the result, considering that Tears Of A Clown’s time was faster than all bar the first two home in the Class 5 handicap for older horses run over the same distance that day, when the field stayed on the stands side.

She was sold for just 25,000 guineas at an online sale in June, and that looked money well spent when she was third in the Listed St Hugh’s Stakes at Newbury on her first start for Henry Candy in August behind today’s rival Miaharris, who produced a strong late surge to win.

I thought Tears Of A Clown shaped as if possibly just in need of the run that day, and she also still showed signs of greenness, not helped by being unable to gain cover in the early stages.

The times suggested that the ground probably wasn’t especially soft at Newbury, and I’m convinced that like many of Pearl Secret’s progeny she’ll need testing ground to show her best. A highlight of Candy’s long career has been his skill with sprinters, and having had Tears Of A Clown only since June, there may be more improvement in her.

It’s not often that you can say “showed signs of a return to form” about a horse that finished 18th, beaten over 12 lengths in a sprint, but I think that’s the case with BERGERAC, and although there are question marks over the draw, trip and ground, he still might be worth chancing in the 5f handicap at York (5.00).

He’s been out of form this season, but he showed much more of his zip in the Ayr Silver Cup last time in a race where he had no realistic chance from his high draw. The group of 15 that raced towards the far side provided the first fifteen home in a race where the field initially split into three groups, and Bergerac readily beat the five horses that raced close to the stands side with him, all in all shaping best of the 10 horses that didn’t join the main group considering he stayed close to the stands side throughout.

He has plenty of form here and ran much better than the bare result when 10th of 19 over 6f here on ground with some give it in in a valuable Class 2 handicap here last October, leading the stands side group a merry dance for much of the race.

His high draw might count against him, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he were withdrawn if the ground gets really testing, but off a mark 5lb lower than at Ayr, he’s worth the chance to confirm that he’s back in form.

 

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

1.50 NEWMARKET

1pt each-way TEARS OF A CLOWN (20-1 bet365, William Hill, 18-1 general)

5.00 YORK

1pt win BERGERAC (16-1 general, 18-1 bet365)

All prices correct at time of publishing -

Edited October 13, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

A winner and a “defacto winner” for me in Hugh’s two races yesterday.

instinctively bolted up from stall 1 and the form and the physics meant he was clear by a long long way. Interpretation of how the physics works negatively and positively is the challenging aspect and this will eventually lead to some decent forecasts and tricasts coming up. I’m just happy to land the winners until that time comes. When Moon was the second “winner” I was posting it up as they went off. Sometimes they delay loading and this time they were on time and I posted and then couldn’t get on as the race was off. The trouble with at the post assessing.

The excellent @richard-westwood had already put that runner up hours before and I could have saved myself the trouble by reading his and @black rabbit 

posts a bit closer.

The Alexander system which I haven’t said too much about is working it’s infuriated a few ( because it’s not the norm and someone tells us all how things should be and what works and what doesn’t) but to be fair that’s tough. What a boring old world it would be if we all thought the same.

 

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Published 9.08, 9.14, 9.24 - all selections online

In the 7f nursery at Newmarket (4.25) CONDEmight have a better chance than his dismissive odds suggest.

He hasn’t been seen to best effect on either start in 7f nurseries, both of which came on testing ground. 

He was too keen in a valuable event at Goodwood in August, also racing away from where the best part of the track, and in the circumstances, it wasn’t too surprising that he couldn’t make much impact in the closing stages.

 

Having been gelded, he was then sent to Beverley to contest a 7f novice, and although he was eventually beaten four lengths by the winner Peace Walk, that was only after they had fought out a sustained duel up the straight, Conde only weakening in the final 150 yards.

He had set a fierce gallop that day - over a second faster than that set by the 82-rated four-year-old Autumn Festival, who made all in the following race – and in the circumstances I think he shaped well.

I thought Peace Walk franked the form despite being narrowly beaten at short odds at Ayr on Friday, and although this is a warm handicap with a number of lightly-raced types from big yards, Conde looks favourably handicapped off a mark of just 71 and might go well off his light weight. 

ARAGON CASTLE was selected in this column for the valuable class 2 nursery at the Ebor meeting, and having not been seen to best effect that day he might be worth another chance over the extended 7f distance at the same track (York 1.50).

His high draw didn’t help him that day, also not getting the clearest of passages up the straight, and he was running on again at the finish.

He had previously recorded a good time figure when second in testing ground at Chester, and he held entries in the Royal Lodge Stakes and Champagne Stakes entries at one stage.

Back on testing ground and down in grade, he looks worth another chance. 

TITIAN goes very well on soft ground, is in good form, has a terrific record at this time of year and won on his only previous start at the track, so he looks to have a lot in his favour in the 1m2f handicap at York (3.35).

He battled on well to spring a 33-1 surprise in the other 1m2f handicap on this card last year, when that event was run as a class 3 0-95 handicap rather than the class 4 0-85 event on today’s card.

He ran very well in a pair of hot class 2 handicaps at the start of the season on testing ground and has continued to hold his form in four subsequent starts over the summer despite not getting his ideal conditions.

His three career wins have come in October (twice) and late September, unsurprisingly for one who goes so well with give underfoot. His stable has been going very well and it will be surprising if he doesn’t give a good account.

HUGH'S BEST BETS (1-5 POINTS):

1.50 YORK

1pt win ARAGON CASTLE (6-1 general)

3.35 YORK

1pt win TITIAN (7-1 William Hill, 13-2 bet365, 6-1 general)

4.25 NEWMARKET

1pt each-way CONDE (22-1 Betfair Sportsbook, bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Unibet - all paying four places)

All

Edited October 14, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Sporting Sam 

putting a different Hue on things.

The cats 🐈 away so the 🐁 will play!!

Hugh is away until 24 th October.

so once a day I will cover a race.

The difference will be

I will post a summary “at the post” minutes before the off to take advantage of any prevailing conditions, the going, one factor ignored totally by most and the physics, weather, market, withdrawals, going, late changes to jockeys conditions of horses etc.

 I will also announce the race in question plenty of time before the race takes place. ( half to one hour before)

[Sporting Sam]

The Sam treatment for the 2000 and 2030 @ Newcastle tonight.

*at the post assessment five mins prior to the  race.
1955 and 2025.

[Sporting Sam]

Newcastle 2000

Beneficiary

Win

EYES

Each Way

Edited October 17, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

A very nice winner in the previous race.  
I use a unique system based on the draw to pinpoint the likeliest position in the stalls of the winner and tonight in addition to eyes it has provided cori glory ( I took 50/1 each way) was beaten into second place narrowest of margins.

 

2030

draw data

Acclaim to fame

win

case strengthened by absence of the top weight blackcurrant.

physics comes into the second selection traverse law and free energy goes straight to the bottom weight here….,,,via  both the draw and the weights  

Kasino

each way

Edited October 17, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Eyes won at 15/2 sp

while kasino 28/1 second and Acclaim to fame 7/2 third we’re just touched off  in the last race. given as win and each way bets.
 

Two races to cover today in Hugh Taylor’s absence and already a winner and two runners just touched off in yesterday’s two covered races at kempton park.

Pimlico Racing Happy Retirement Zoffany Bay Handicap 

Navan 1705 hours

(47-65) (DIV II) of €10,500.00 3-y-o plus 1m. 6f. 25 Declared

an amazing 22 runners are set to go to post in this second division of two races dedicated to retiring runner Zoffany Bay. It could be significant that connections have gone for the lucky last rather than the opening contest and the horse has had a lively career one of the highlights being a switch to France culminating in winning a hurdle out there for David Cottin in Auteil two years ago. He looks high in the weights and others have a lot more appeal but there wouldn’t be a dry eye 👁 in the house if he can get home and he should be backed on a mark which has been won off in the distant past. Off an even better mark and not far away at the weights is the well backed runner …. Harvest Bow

hasn’t won for a while but looks on a very good mark with yard going for a ten pounds claimer to tilt the scales solidly in the right direction.

Queen of seduction was the lucky recipient of the jockeys ten pounds yesterday.

Tenth Amendment has a dramatically swinging handicap mark for a handicapper unable to reach a consistent assessment of the horses ability. Now that he’s crashed below the winning mark barrier, perhaps draw data can make his mind up here.

ZOFFANY BAY

Win
 

TENTH AMENDMENT ( non runner)

HARVEST BOW

Both each way 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Sporting Sam