MCLARKE Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 A few statistics from the naps tables since Jan 21, some maybe relevant, others maybe not. Over 52,000 entries so certainly a reasonable data size. The overall ROI is -4%. The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%). Those selections settled at SP show a loss of 29%. This perhaps shows the importance of taking an early price and BOG. Win selections show a return of -5%, each way -1%. The each way selections are settled at standard terms so the returns will be better if extra places were taken into account. God's own county is the place to be. The top 2 courses are in Yorkshire, Thirsk with a profit of 286 points and Doncaster 237. The course with the biggest loss is Wolverhampton (-543 points, ROI -17%). Players that have recorded a profit of over 30 points in their last 50 selections have produced 557 wins from 3,618 selections with a profit of 550 points (ROI 16%). 50 day moving averages have proved significant in share investing. Players that have recorded at least 2 wins from their last 5 selections have produced 3,152 wins from 10,383 selections and a profit of 456 points (4% ROI). A 20 day strike rate of over 26% has resulted in 3,987 wuns from 13,326 runs with a profit of 465 points (3% ROI). A 10 day strike rate of greater than 33% has resulted in 2,827 wins from 8,736 runs with a profit of 495 points (6% ROI). A 5 day strike rate of 40% and above has produced 3,421 from 11,540 runs with a profit of 485 points (4% ROI). A 50 day ROI greater than 32% has produced 1,996 wins from 10,721 runs with a profit of 629 points (6% ROI). The best month is May with a return of 4%, the worst is January at -10%. April to September is -1%, October to March is -8%. Thursday and Friday show a profit of 4%. Sunday shows a loss of 13%. This may be because of the lack of racing on a Sunday and members struggling to find a selection. Monday (-9%) and Tuesday (-8%) also show big losses. The first 7 selections have produced 1,316 wins from 6,273 selections with a profit of 510 points (8% ROI). This may show the importance of grabbing the early prices. In reality it may prove difficult to generate these returns now that most bookmakers do not offer BOG the night before racing. Like A Roughie, Ferki, Johnrobertson and 6 others 7 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: A few statistics from the naps tables since Jan 21, some maybe relevant, others maybe not. Over 52,000 entries so certainly a reasonable data size. The overall ROI is -4%. The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%). Those selections settled at SP show a loss of 29%. This perhaps shows the importance of taking an early price and BOG. Win selections show a return of -5%, each way -1%. The each way selections are settled at standard terms so the returns will be better if extra places were taken into account. God's own county is the place to be. The top 2 courses are in Yorkshire, Thirsk with a profit of 286 points and Doncaster 237. The course with the biggest loss is Wolverhampton (-543 points, ROI -17%). Players that have recorded a profit of over 30 points in their last 50 selections have produced 557 wins from 3,618 selections with a profit of 550 points (ROI 16%). 50 day moving averages have proved significant in share investing. Players that have recorded at least 2 wins from their last 5 selections have produced 3,152 wins from 10,383 selections and a profit of 456 points (4% ROI). A 20 day strike rate of over 26% has resulted in 3,987 wuns from 13,326 runs with a profit of 465 points (3% ROI). A 10 day strike rate of greater than 33% has resulted in 2,827 wins from 8,736 runs with a profit of 495 points (6% ROI). A 5 day strike rate of 40% and above has produced 3,421 from 11,540 runs with a profit of 485 points (4% ROI). A 50 day ROI greater than 32% has produced 1,996 wins from 10,721 runs with a profit of 629 points (6% ROI). The best month is May with a return of 4%, the worst is January at -10%. April to September is -1%, October to March is -8%. Thursday and Friday show a profit of 4%. Sunday shows a loss of 13%. This may be because of the lack of racing on a Sunday and members struggling to find a selection. Monday (-9%) and Tuesday (-8%) also show big losses. The first 7 selections have produced 1,316 wins from 6,273 selections with a profit of 510 points (8% ROI). This may show the importance of grabbing the early prices. In reality it may prove difficult to generate these returns now that most bookmakers do not offer BOG the night before racing. Interesting but Just a few observations- The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%).. This will never win the naps table? My second observation is that many of the Punters entering the comp don't back their selections so it would be fair to say that all these stats are skewed? One interesting stat that i would be quite interested in is the difference between the first week and the last week (or all 4 weeks) i strongly suspect the total odds would be quite large in the last week compared to the first. Xcout and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 38 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Players that have recorded a profit of over 30 points in their last 50 selections have produced 557 wins from 3,618 selections with a profit of 550 points (ROI 16%). 50 day moving averages have proved significant in share investing. Add this metric to the naps table for reference! 38 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%). Would that double count where 2 or more people picked the same selection (so it's total naps rather than unique runners)? Any merit in backing selections picked by more than x people (or the opposite; shorter priced selections but only picked by one individual)? Appreciate some of this might be too fiddly to figure out! The Equaliser and Zilzalian 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: The ideal odds range is 11/10 to 11/4 with 2,451 wins from 6,967 selections and a profit of 391 points (ROI 6%).. This will never win the naps table? Maybe not but a few of these with the occasional longshot may be a good option. I was thinking of members using the naps to influence their own selections. 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: My second observation is that many of the Punters entering the comp don't back their selections so it would be fair to say that all these stats are skewed? Not sure why they would be skewed, they are actual results. 8 hours ago, Zilzalian said: One interesting stat that i would be quite interested in is the difference between the first week and the last week (or all 4 weeks) i strongly suspect the total odds would be quite large in the last week compared to the first. Indeed, the strike rate for the 1st 7 days is 20%, for the last 7 days it is 15% (for the last day it is 10%). Zilzalian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 26, 2023 Author Share Posted July 26, 2023 7 hours ago, harry_rag said: Would that double count where 2 or more people picked the same selection (so it's total naps rather than unique runners)? Any merit in backing selections picked by more than x people (or the opposite; shorter priced selections but only picked by one individual)? Appreciate some of this might be too fiddly to figure out! Yes, in effect if you were backing these you would be backing some of them multiple times. I'll have a think about analysing based on the number of players making a selection, most things are possible with Excel. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 27, 2023 Author Share Posted July 27, 2023 14 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I'll have a think about analysing based on the number of players making a selection, most things are possible with Excel. I've had a look and there's not a great deal of difference, the majority of selections were not duplicated harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 30, 2023 Author Share Posted July 30, 2023 The first 7 selections have produced 1,316 wins from 6,273 selections with a profit of 510 points (8% ROI). This may show the importance of grabbing the early prices. Two 25/1 winning selections in the top 7 today, backed into 12/1 HERE, Zilzalian and calva decoy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 8, 2023 Author Share Posted August 8, 2023 Top 7 today produced 4 winners at 10/1, 15/2, 100/30, 6/4, a 14/1 second and a non runner harry_rag and HERE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted August 15, 2023 Author Share Posted August 15, 2023 Since I published the stats the record of the top 7 has been 31 wins from 144 runs with a profit of 95 points "Players that have recorded a profit of over 30 points in their last 50 selections have produced 557 wins from 3,618 selections with a profit of 550 points" This has also continued to be profitable with 12 wins from 67 runs and a profit of 18 points harry_rag, Zilzalian, HERE and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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