Racing chat -Friday 14th July

[richard-westwood]

445 newm 

Persuasion   8.6 7/1 

Final watch   8.5 8/1 

Lyndon b    8.5  10/1 

These 3 are clear of rest and hard to separate ....I'll try 5pt win each and forecasts 

[The Brigadier]

Day two of the Newmarket July Meeting and we have six races covered by the ITV cameras with the first four on the card live plus we have a couple of races from York including the Group 3 William Hill Summer Stakes at 14:40.

The ground is currently good to firm at Newmarket and good at York although there are showers forecast. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Newmarket 13:50

We start the day off with a thirteen runner three year old class 2 Heritage Handicap over 10F. CharlieAppleby has his local string in fine form now unlike three weeks ago at Royal Ascot when the yard went 0 from 18 with their runners. He saddles a brace of decent three year olds in top weight Local Dynasty and Royal Ascot 6th Tagabawa here. William Buick, one would think, has had the pick here and rides the latter who is dropping in trip here. It would be no shock were either to take this but I want to be with one further down the handicap who looks very well treated in the Freddie and Martyn Meade trained Dayzee. A dual winner from four outings on the all-weather he made an excellent turf debut when out battling the John & Thady Gosden trained Spring Fever at Salisbury over today’s trip. The pair pulled some 7L clear of the third and with Spring Fever winning at Newmarket by 5 1/2L since the form looks very good. Dayzee was put up 6lb for that success although the official handicapper has pushed him up a further 2lb following the runner up’s subsequent easy victory which wont come into affect until after this race. He looks great each way value with Marco Ghiani taking over from Sean Levey.

There are, as one would expect, plenty of others that can be given chances here including the William Haggas handicap debutant Seendid and Alan King’s maiden winner Westerton ridden by Ryan Moore. A competitive race to start day two and it’s Dayzee each way for me.

 

DAYZEE 1 point each way @ 14/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

 

York 14:05

The first of two televised races from York is the class 2 7F handicap which has attracted just the eight runners.

Nigel Tinkler’s Another Investment heads the betting having bolted up over course and distance four weeks ago winning by 5L. He’s been hammered by the handicapper mind and been raised 11lb and at the current prices can be taken on here. Michael Dods’s Norhern Express ran a stormer at Royal Ascot in the Buckingham Palace Handicap to finish third (beaten 1 1/4L)to Witch Hunter and a reproduction of that effort will see him go very close. Only 2 3/4L behind that day was the David O’Meara trained Bopedro and on 2lb better terms is maybe the biggest threat to Northern Express who looks sure to be thereabouts and is the selection here.

 

NORTHERN EXPRESS 1 point win @ 3/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 14:25

Only five have declared for the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridgeshire Stakes run over 6F for two year old fillies. We have a warm favourite in the Charlie Appleby trained Kodiac filly Star Of Mystery. She’s already shown herself to be a smart sort by following up her Haydock novice win with a scintillating listed victory over course and distance a fortnight ago. She travelled strongly that day and went clear to win by 4L and if in the same mood will be very hard to beat.

Amo Racing bring a brace of nice fillies to the race in Persian Dreamer and Thanksbutnothanks, though both will need to raise their game with the latter some 25lb officially behind the warm favourite and the former was a length and a half behind Soprano at Royal Ascot.

Soprano was an eleventh hour defection due to a cock up with some medication which should leave this a cake walk for Star Of Mystery who's now too skinny to back at around the 1/3 mark.

 

York 14:40

The 6F William Hill Summer Stakes is a Group 3 contest for three year old fillies and mares which this year has attracted ten runners.

The one they all have to beat is the Karl Burke trained Swingalong who takes a drop in class here having finished third (beaten 2L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear when dropping in trip. This trip obviously suits her and if she can reproduce that run will be hard to beat.

Her biggest danger may well be fellow three year Juliet Sienna, trained by Ralph Beckett. She was only half a length behind Swingalong in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last September and probably didn’t stay a mile on her only run this season.

Gale Force Maya has a great record here winning three of her five starts on the Knavesmire and was third in this last year. She has however shown little in two starts this season and is hard to fancy on recent form.

James Tate’s Royal Aclaim looked very smart when winning over 5F at the Ebor meeting here last August but hasn’t really gone on from that win and steps up in trip today.

Mamma’s Girl drops in trip having been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes and has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for her Nell Gwyn victory in the spring.

If reproducing her last run this should be going to the favourite Swingalong although I can’t resist a small each way saver on Juliet Sierra who was only just behind her last year in Group 1 company.

 

SWINGALONG 2 points win @ 15/8 William Hill

JULIET SIERRA 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

Newmarket 15:00

Next up is the 1M 6F class 2 bet365 Heritage Handicap, for four year old’s and upwards.

Saedd Bin Suroor’s top weight Live Your Dream won this very race two years ago from a 10lb lower handicap mark and appears to have a golden chance of taking the first prize again, this time with Kevin Stott doing the steering. Two good efforts in valuable handicaps already this season over 1M 4F including when third (beaten 2L) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot should set him up to take this especially as the extra two furlongs will be in his favour.

Roger Varian’s Aimeric was just two lengths behind Live Your Dream at Ascot and is now 2lb better so shouldn’t be that far away from his old rival and can also run well.

Adrian Paul Keatley’s Kihavah is chasing a four timer (five timer if you include his hurdles win last month) rising some 15lb in the weights and doesn’t have much in hand of George Scott’s Prydwen who was a head behind him last time at Ayr and is a pound better off. Torcello only comes into the equation were the heavens to open and this looks a great opportunity for Live Your Dream to open his account for the season.

 

LIVE YOUR DREAM 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Newmarket 15:35

A filed of nine assemble for the first Group 1 of the week in the shape of the 1M Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, a race for three year old fillies and upwards.

George Boughey’s Via Sistina heads the market following wins at Newmarket (Group 2) and The Curragh (Group 1) with her latest win coming in the Pretty Polly Stakes, which looked a weak renewal. She has definite claims but I would be a bit concerned were the ground to ride fast as shes been kept to good and slower ground and has actually been pulled out twice in her career due to fast ground. At around the 2/1 mark I think we can look elsewhere.

Last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage and three year old Remarquee form a potent partnership from the Ralph Beckett stable with preference for the latter who took the Fred Darling at Newbury on her re-appearance on soft ground. Having finished down the field in the 1000 Guineas she bounced back to form, despite losing a shoe, to run the smart Tahiyra to a length when not getting the clearest of runs in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes. She had been labelled a soft ground performer coming into that run but it was run on good to firm and was a career best. If reproducing that effort she looks the bet here.

John & Thady Gosden supplemented Nashwa earlier in the week and on her best form of last season when winning the Group 1 French Oaks and Nassau Stakes is a serious player although in two runs this season seems a bit below that form currently. The Gosden’s also have impressive Sandringham Handicap winner Coppice entered and I can see her outrunning her odds.

I’ll stick with the Rob Hornby ridden Remarquee to prove his Royal Ascot win was no fluke.

 

REMARQUEE 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 123