harry_rag Posted July 30, 2023 Author Share Posted July 30, 2023 A couple of anytime prices appeal in the early games tomorrow (both backed on a void if not starting basis). Putellas for Spain at 4/1 with 365 and Chitundu for Zambia at 7/2 with Hills, Sky Bet or Uni. The former expected to start but the latter only a possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 Group C wrap up. On 7/6/2023 at 2:50 PM, harry_rag said: Spain: I'm yet to be convinced by the National team as serious contenders despite the success enjoyed by Barcelona in club competitions. I think the markets tend to overrate them. Should top the group and get past Norway or the Swiss but I have them coming up short against Sweden. USA as probable opponents blocking their way to the final. They'd be a lay for me at around the 13/2 mark if that was my cup of tea. To be fair they are 3rd in my head to head table; FIFA rank them as 6th best. First two games were starting to convince me but today's 4-0 defeat against Japan was humbling for them. End up facing Switzerland next as I expected but only because I had the 1-2 the wrong way round in both groups. I doubt I'll be backing them to get past Switzerland but they should still make it to the quarter finals. On 7/6/2023 at 5:41 PM, harry_rag said: Japan: Should be too good not to go through with Spain but likely to find Norway or the Swiss too much to go any further. Could make the QF at a push but can't see them getting past any team they might meet there, hence the comment in the post above about them looking like a sell at 25 on the outright index. Market does make them odds on to reach the last 8 so they are fancied to get over this first hurdle (8/11 compared to 6/5 Norway and 17/2 Switzerland). Won all 3 games with 11 for and 0 against so fair to say they've impressed me and exceeded my expectations. Norway will need to perform to the level they only reached in their final group game to get past them. On 7/8/2023 at 2:28 PM, harry_rag said: Costa Rica: Similar to Ireland but just swap in Spain and Japan/Zambia. I was right about Spain and Japan being too much for them but wrong about them being comfortably clear of Zambia who finally found their goalscoring form in the last game to finish 3rd. So I got the group right in terms of the teams going through but got the placings the wrong way round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 Group B round up. On 7/6/2023 at 2:50 PM, harry_rag said: Australia: Ranked 10th, 14th in my table, even with home advantage they look too short for an interest at 14/1. I have them topping the group ahead of Canada then getting past whoever comes runner up to England but I see them falling at the QF hurdle whoever they may come up against. Through as expected though with the surprise defeat to Nigeria in between their 2 victories. On 7/6/2023 at 5:41 PM, harry_rag said: Canada: I see them going through with Australia then exiting against England. They are ranked 7th in the World but it feels slightly flattering and I did read of the team being at odds with the Federation. Could make the last 8 if they avoid England but just struck me as giving off a negative vibe when I was looking at the teams. Finished 3rd, performed roughly as I expected but were undone by Nigeria's win over Australia. Their 4 points would have seen them through had Australia managed to avoid defeat in that game. On 7/8/2023 at 2:28 PM, harry_rag said: Ireland: Too much of a gulf between them and Australia and Canada for me but comfortably better than Nigeria. Lost to the "big 2" and drew with Nigeria. Can't begrudge the African team their place in the next round given their results (a win and 2 goalless draws). They're likely to face England next but let's see how group D finishes before we look ahead to that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 On 7/30/2023 at 12:50 PM, harry_rag said: I think the "no need to bet on every game" lesson is one I should finally learn and carry forward to all International tournaments. I do love them from a betting perspective but just need to be a bit more selective with the bets. Ironic I post that just before a losing clean sweep on all today's games! To be fair to me, I have avoided a lot of games since the opening flurry and I did like all of those bets but I'll perhaps raise the bar a little higher for the remaining group games. I'll probably settle for the old "back the draw" staple in the knockout rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted July 31, 2023 Author Share Posted July 31, 2023 Nothing leaping out for tomorrow, 4 favourites that I'd expect to get the job done but no appeal from a betting angle. England and Denmark both fancied for narrow wins, USA similar and Netherlands with what looks like the easiest job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 Stanway 17/4 (4/1 plus boost) is a big price. A "B" system bet for me, scores 90 on a rating where 72 is a potential bet. Takes pens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 Group D wrap up; outright favourites USA scrape through with a win against Vietnam and draws against the 2 European teams. It means they're likely to face Sweden in the next round which, I suppose, at least guarantees me one of my antepost picks through to the quarter finals. All about fine margins with just 3 group games; had they found a winner against the Dutch the group would have finished in it's "natural" order. Holland go through in top spot with 7 points after an emphatic 7-0 win over Vietnam. Likely opponents are Italy if they can avoid defeat against South Africa which is good news for my antepost bet on them (they've more or less halved in price). Portugal beat Vietnam to comfortably take 3rd spot as expected and acquitted themselves well against the higher ranked teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 1, 2023 Author Share Posted August 1, 2023 Group D and finally a group I called entirely correctly with England leading Denmark through to the next round and China consigning Haiti to last place. No upsets, all the favourites won their games. Nigeria the surprise opponents for England while Denmark will have to get past Australia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Posted 2/1 Debinha for Brazil as a system bet. Hill's have boosted Shaw for Jamaica to 5/1 and that's worth taking in a game that could see plenty of action at both ends of the pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 2, 2023 Author Share Posted August 2, 2023 Group G saw Sweden finish top as expected but South Africa leapfrogged Italy and Argentina to go through in second. Another example of a single goal having a huge impact; 2-2 would have seen Italy progress as expected but a late winner saw the African team progress with a surprising tally of 6 goals scored. South Africa face the Netherlands while Sweden play the USA. Similar in group F with France topping the group as expected but Jamaica managing to nudge Brazil out of the picture with a 0-0 draw. Jamaica only scored a single goal but didn't concede any. Brazil were undone by their inability to score in that final game. With group H yet to be decided it remains to see who their opponents will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 Well group H saves the best till last in terms of unexpected outcomes with Colombia and Morocco qualifying with 6 points each at the expense of the 2 higher ranked teams in the group. No great shock that South Korea didn't make it through (they have a tendency to underperform their ranking) but Germany going out was the biggest surprise so far. Ranked 2nd, I had them as runners up in my predictions. There were 4 other teams that I expected to qualify but I had them all down as falling at the first knockout hurdle. They were Brazil, Italy, South Korea and Canada. The 3 unexpected qualifiers from the other groups were South Africa, Nigeria and Jamaica. The teams who benefit from a potentially easier looking draw are Netherlands (v South Africa), France (v Morocco) and England (v Nigeria then Colombia or Jamaica). Unsurprisingly, England are now outright favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 (edited) Prices for the round of 16. First thoughts (apart from their being some juicy prices for the draw) are that a few teams look underrated. Switzerland, Norway and Sweden all might be worth a closer look. Edited August 3, 2023 by harry_rag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 On 7/16/2023 at 1:22 PM, harry_rag said: Sky Bet have prices for games going to extra time and penalties. I took what I could get on >3.5 going to ET at evens and 6+ at 13/2 (both have been trimmed). Always worth considering backing the draw in the knockout rounds of International tournaments, there were 3 draws in the Euros from just 7 games. With 16 here I think it's easily odds on that we get 4 or more. I'm less keen on the "pens" prices but have had small bets on 4-5 at 10/1 and 6+ at 100/1. Most of those prices have drifted out to slightly better than the "opening show", no doubt due to the number of "minnows" making it through. I still think there's some value in them though so I've topped up the original stakes given the extent to which I was limited. On now at 11/10, 15/2, 11/1 and 100/1 respectively. Need to decide whether or not to make my usual bets on the games being drawn taking into account the amount potentially won/lost on the above bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Now we're at the last 16 stage I've had a look at the outrights and this is what I'm going with for the moment. First up is a saver on England. They're into favourites now, but I'm far from convinced. Nonetheless, they know how to win tournaments now after the Euros and that could make the difference. Talking of teams that know how to win tournaments, my next bet is on the USA. There's no question they've underwhelmed, but they have such pedigree I think you write them off at your peril. They're a bigger price now than they were before the tournament kicked off - obviously the result of some lacklustre performances - and that makes them a play for me. I'm also keeping Australia onside, as home advantage will make them an awkward opponent for any of the other teams. Getting through the group stage without Kerr means there's room for them to improve should their star striker return to fitness and feature in their next match. Finally I'm backing a couple of outsiders at big prices in the shape of Colombia and Norway. The knockout stages are likely to be cagey affairs with each team concerned first of all with not going behind, and that in combination with the shocks we've already seen suggest there'll be a surprise result or two as the tournament heads to it's conclusion. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.00 Boyles 15pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 Betfair Exchange 5pts Australia to win Women's World Cup @ 16.19 Betfair Exchange 10pts Colombia to win Women's World Cup @ 53.92 Betfair Exchange 1pt Norway to win Women's World Cup @ 117.60 Betfair Exchange harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 Playing the draw in both of tomorrow's games (something of a standing order in the knockout rounds of International tournaments) but to slightly reduced stakes allowing for the antepost bets on number of games going to extra time. 15/4 in the first game and around 3.7 in the second one. Switzerland v Spain: The Swiss record against top 10 or 20 teams and Spain's against teams ranked 11-30 suggests an easy victory for the favourites, especially if you don't linger too long over their 4-0 defeat to Japan. The Swiss do have a record of draw specialism but it only kicks in against lower ranked teams. 10/1 is verging on being attractive for 20th against 6th but, all things considered I'll settle for the draw bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 Japan v Norway is 11th v 12th so, on the face of it, you'd question Japan being odds on to win and Norway being as big as 4/1. Neither team conceded in the group stages but Japan won all 3 games and scored 11 goals while Norway only won (or scored in) their final game when they beat the Philippines 6-0. Both teams have broadly similar records against top 20 and top 10 opponents barring a much worse goals against figure for Norway. Norway to qualify is 9/4 in places and, while I think Japan do justify favouritism, that's big enough for me to add it to the draw bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 4, 2023 Author Share Posted August 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Torque said: Now we're at the last 16 stage I've had a look at the outrights and this is what I'm going with for the moment. Had a look myself yesterday and decided to stay with my existing positions. Canada fell at the group stage but that leaves me with the USA at a now sickly looking 11/4 along with 3 other bets that do look a bit better. I'm on the Netherlands at 35 (now 14), Sweden at 29 (21) and France at just shy of 22 (8.6). Of your bets I can see the obvious logic in the England and USA bets. It's clear why England have shortened so much given the way the draw has opened up for them but they're short enough for me to decide not to add them into the mix. I was more tempted by the drift in the USA's price as they're still a contender despite the poor performances and tougher than expected opponent due to finishing second but, again, I decided to leave them alone. Australia are likely to exit at the quarter final stage for me and I've felt they were a bit short in the market since the first time I looked. I can see the appeal but would have wanted a better price. I don't like the prospect of the two outsider punts but that Norway price will look very tasty if my "to qualify" bet obliges. Good luck with the bets; surely we must have the winner (if not most of the semi finalists) between us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Had a look myself yesterday and decided to stay with my existing positions. Canada fell at the group stage but that leaves me with the USA at a now sickly looking 11/4 along with 3 other bets that do look a bit better. I'm on the Netherlands at 35 (now 14), Sweden at 29 (21) and France at just shy of 22 (8.6). Of your bets I can see the obvious logic in the England and USA bets. It's clear why England have shortened so much given the way the draw has opened up for them but they're short enough for me to decide not to add them into the mix. I was more tempted by the drift in the USA's price as they're still a contender despite the poor performances and tougher than expected opponent due to finishing second but, again, I decided to leave them alone. Australia are likely to exit at the quarter final stage for me and I've felt they were a bit short in the market since the first time I looked. I can see the appeal but would have wanted a better price. I don't like the prospect of the two outsider punts but that Norway price will look very tasty if my "to qualify" bet obliges. Good luck with the bets; surely we must have the winner (if not most of the semi finalists) between us! I'm not in love with Norway hence the stake, but I do think Colombia might surprise. They've looked good to me. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 29 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Canada fell at the group stage but that leaves me with the USA at a now sickly looking 11/4 I took them at a similar price before the off. Looks a terrible bet based on what we've seen so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 Netherlands (9) v South Africa (54) should be fairly easy for the Dutch. Their record against teams ranked 20+ is 18-2-0 with 2 draws against 27th ranked Czechia the blots on the copybook. They won all 12 against teams ranked lower than that and all of them by 2 or more goals. South Africa's 3-2 win over Italy is their only victory in just 6 games against top 20 opponents. They lost the other 5 by an aggregate margin of 22-3. No bet for me on that game, I'll just shrug my shoulders should this be an unlikely end to my antepost interest in the Dutch. The other game sees 3rd ranked Sweden take on top ranked (but looking anything but) USA. I think the prices flatter the USA on form in this World Cup and collateral form against top 12 opposition. Sweden are 7-7-2 (25-19) while the USA are 7-4-5 (21-19). I think there's value in Sweden to win or qualify but I won't get involved given my antepost bets on both games. I'll play the draw at 3.3 as it's a prime candidate for a game that goes the distance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 And then there were 14. Spain made a bit of a statement with their win and Japan also got through without too much fuss. That means I've lost Norway but that wasn't unexpected. The consequence of those results is that Spain have come in and that's not just because they've made the next round. Another consequence is that the teams that haven't played have gone out a little and that's to be expected as both Spain and Japan made the next round as favourites. With all that in mind, I'm backing Spain and adding to positions on England and the USA. I wasn't really keen on backing Spain given all the noise around their coach and a number of missing players who chose to boycott the tournament, but I can't ignore the dominance of their win. If they don't really want to play for their coach they certainly aren't showing it. Nothing has changed for me as far as England and the USA are concerned, and so with both now available at bigger odds than I've already taken I'm happy to top-up on both. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 4.04 Betfair Exchange 20pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 5.21 Betfair Exchange 20pts USA to win Women's World Cup @ 7.27 Betfair Exchange harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 6, 2023 Author Share Posted August 6, 2023 Well there go the USA and might as well settle my bet on their keeper winning the Golden Glove as a loser at the same time! Still, Sweden progress and I notch up extra time and pens for the bets in those respects. All relevant form says England should progress against Nigeria. Whilst the latter are 12-2-2 against top 20 teams I'm not putting too much weight on a couple of draws against goal shy Canada or a win over erratic South Korea. Beating Australia in the group stages is more impressive but they had to score 3 goals to do it and I can't see them repeating the feat against an England team who appear to be playing their way into the tournament quite nicely. I won't bother backing the draw in this one but have had a double odds bet builder of England to win and score >2 goals and btts = yes at 10.6 with Hills. Australia v Denmark is a closer match up with 10th v 13th in the rankings. Home advantage and form suggests Australia are correctly favoured to progress and even money may not be a bad price for them to do it in 90 minutes. I also think over 2.5 goals at 7/5 isn't a bad bet but I think I'll just hope for another draw here and have a bit on it at 3.4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Hard lines with our USA bets @harry_rag, but they can't say they didn't have their chances and their luck ran out in the penalties after being fortunate to make it out of their group. There's 12 teams left now and I'm having a few more bets on the exchanges. In some cases it's about minimising losses, but otherwise I've got Spain and Colombia onside and a scratch bet on England. 10pts England to win Women's World Cup @ 3.74 35pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 4.82 10pts Japan to win Women's World Cup @ 6.29 5pts Netherlands to win Women's World Cup @ 13.74 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 So much for not backing the draw in England's game! I'll risk the same strategy tomorrow for France v Morocco. France should win that one with something to spare, even allowing for the surprise results we've seen so far. The draw with 43rd ranked Jamaica was the only game in 23 against teams ranked 20th or lower that France haven't won. I don't see 72nd placed Morocco bucking that trend. 25th ranked Colombia should get passed Jamaica but if the latter can keep another clean sheet for 90 minutes then anything's possible. I'll go for the draw in that one at around 3.3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 Down to 10 now after England got through by the skin of their teeth and Australia won comfortably. England seem to be all over the place so far in this tournament and the lack of a definite formation isn't helping. Despite being the favourites, they'll do well to win this as other teams seem to be far more fluent and settled. Australia must be feeling positive about their chances, after another win without Kerr starting. They'll know that with her back in the team for their next match - which she should be after coming off the bench against Denmark - they'll be an even stronger proposition. In the outrights on the exchanges I've added a little more to my position on Spain and also a small amount on France. I'm also bringing Sweden onside after their win over the USA. As much as they rode their luck in that match, it's a massive boost in confidence to beat one of the tournament favourites. 10pts Spain to win Women's World Cup @ 4.72 5pts France to win Women's World Cup @ 8.64 20pts Sweden to win Women's World Cup @ 13.74 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 With two games to go in the round of 16 I've been having a look at the Golden Boot market. The teams who make the quarter finals will either play one more game if they go out or 3 if they make the semi finals so you'd want a team that you fancy to make the last 4 if you were going to have a bet. The teams who play tomorrow potentially have 4 more games though that's only a realistic proposition in the case of France. Japan's Miyawaza leads the way with 5 goals. She's odds on in places but can be backed at 7/4 or layed at 2.5 so there's some value to be had one way or another if you have a strong view on her prospects. Roord (Netherlands) and Popp (Germany) are on 4, the latter only being relevant if you were betting each way (most firms are win only now). There are 7 players on 3 goals each who are still in the tournament including the Spanish trio of Bonmati, Redondo and Hermoso and Diani for France (who scored all her goals in the last group game against Panama). With that "game in hand" you could make a case for Diani at 5/1 but I'm not confident enough to be going in with a "proper" bet at such relatively short odds. Instead I've had a small e/w bet on her team mate Le Sommer at 150/1 with Betway (1/3 the odds for two places). With just a single goal so far she's expected to return tomorrow after being rested in the last game and is only 16/1 to score a hat trick. It's an unlikely bet but I'm not sure she should be so deeply into 3 figure odds and the e/w element adds a bit of extra appeal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 7, 2023 Share Posted August 7, 2023 54 minutes ago, harry_rag said: With two games to go in the round of 16 I've been having a look at the Golden Boot market. The teams who make the quarter finals will either play one more game if they go out or 3 if they make the semi finals so you'd want a team that you fancy to make the last 4 if you were going to have a bet. The teams who play tomorrow potentially have 4 more games though that's only a realistic proposition in the case of France. Japan's Miyawaza leads the way with 5 goals. She's odds on in places but can be backed at 7/4 or layed at 2.5 so there's some value to be had one way or another if you have a strong view on her prospects. Roord (Netherlands) and Popp (Germany) are on 4, the latter only being relevant if you were betting each way (most firms are win only now). There are 7 players on 3 goals each who are still in the tournament including the Spanish trio of Bonmati, Redondo and Hermoso and Diani for France (who scored all her goals in the last group game against Panama). With that "game in hand" you could make a case for Diani at 5/1 but I'm not confident enough to be going in with a "proper" bet at such relatively short odds. Instead I've had a small e/w bet on her team mate Le Sommer at 150/1 with Betway (1/3 the odds for two places). With just a single goal so far she's expected to return tomorrow after being rested in the last game and is only 16/1 to score a hat trick. It's an unlikely bet but I'm not sure she should be so deeply into 3 figure odds and the e/w element adds a bit of extra appeal. Looks worth a go @harry_rag good luck with it. Stand out price too - can't see it anywhere else. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 7, 2023 Author Share Posted August 7, 2023 54 minutes ago, Torque said: Looks worth a go @harry_rag good luck with it. Stand out price too - can't see it anywhere else. If she doesn't score tomorrow it's probably dead in the water, 1 would keep it ticking over and 2 would make it look a great bet. Could do with Japan exiting next round without any further goals added by their player. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 8, 2023 Author Share Posted August 8, 2023 Bit last minute but Renard to score a header is way too big at 17/2 with Betway. Was just about happy with 5/1 till a I saw that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted August 8, 2023 Author Share Posted August 8, 2023 Added Diani at 11/1. As short as 1/5 not to! All about the noggin in this game as on a header scored at 5/4 as well. Allez le Blues! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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