ROYAL ASCOT STATISTICS

[MCLARKE]

This meeting is the premier flat meeting of the year and because of the prestige and prize money involved we can be confident that all horses will be running on their merits. Whilst there are many variables that will determine the results form will be more reliable than in other races.

Favourites have won 75 out of 298 races and generated a profit. 2nd favourites have also proved profitable.

In fact, with the quality of the racing it is best to stick with the top 4 in the betting forecast.

Some statistics that might help pick a few profitable winners include:

1.       Horses that last ran at Newmarket have recorded 22 wins from 126 races with a profit of 155 points.

2.       Horses that are having their 1st or 2nd run of the season have recorded 152 wins from 986 runs with a profit of 103 points.

3.       Horses that last ran 37 to 47 days ago have recorded 35 wins from 191 runs with a profit of 73 points.

4.       Horses that last ran in a group race have recorded 63 wins from 301 runs with a profit of 61 points.

5.       Horses that last ran at Epsom have recorded 16 wins from 60 races with a profit of 41 points.

 

Key statistics related to the non-handicap races include:

1.       Horses that finished outside the top 4 last time have recorded 41 wins from 519 runs with a profit of 133 points.

2.       The best forecast odds range is 3/1 to 11/2 with 58 wins from 291 runs and a profit of 50 points.

3.       Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 71 wins from 908 runs and a profit of 221 points.

4.       In large fields low draws have the best record with 11 wins from 109 runs and a profit of 54 points.

5.       1st and 2nd favourites have recorded 103 wins from 428 runs with a profit of 17 points.

 

Key statistics related to the handicap races include:

1.       Forecast favourites have a good record with 18 wins from 85 races and a profit of 21 points.

2.       Horses that last ran more than 73 days ago have recorded 16 wins from 272 runs with a profit of 163 points.

3.       Horses in the weight range 9st 1lbs to 9st 3lbs have recorded 30 wins from 432 runs with a profit of 98 points.

4.       Horses ranked 6th to 15th in the betting forecast have recorded 36 wins from 867 runs with a profit of 167 points.

5.       Horses with forecast odds of 12/1 to 14/1 have recorded 23 wins from 340 runs with a profit of 117 points.

[MCLARKE]

An update on the results

On the face of it these proved very profitable. If you had backed every selection then you would have enjoyed a very healthy BSP profit of 992 points ! However the results were influenced by the win of Valiant Force at a BSP of 488. This horse appeared in 2 of the statistics. However even excluding this the stats would have made an overall profit. The overall stats performed better than the stats for for non-handicaps and handicaps (the handicaps made a loss), perhap this shows the danger of using small data sizes. 

Hopefully the stats at Goodwood will point us to a few winners but I can't promise a profit of nearly a thousand points !

Some statistics that might help pick a few profitable winners include:

1.       Horses that last ran at Newmarket have recorded 22 wins from 126 races with a profit of 155 points. 3 from 41, LSP 119

2.       Horses that are having their 1st or 2nd run of the season have recorded 152 wins from 986 runs with a profit of 103 points. 25 from 395, LSP 92

3.       Horses that last ran 37 to 47 days ago have recorded 35 wins from 191 runs with a profit of 73 points. 5 from 102, LSP -17

4.       Horses that last ran in a group race have recorded 63 wins from 301 runs with a profit of 61 points. 12 from 124, LSP 476

5.       Horses that last ran at Epsom have recorded 16 wins from 60 races with a profit of 41 points. 2 from 41, LSP -28

 

Key statistics related to the non-handicap races include:

1.       Horses that finished outside the top 4 last time have recorded 41 wins from 519 runs with a profit of 133 points. 4 from 65, LSP 477

2.       The best forecast odds range is 3/1 to 11/2 with 58 wins from 291 runs and a profit of 50 points. 1 from 29, LSP -25

3.       Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 71 wins from 908 runs and a profit of 221 points. 6 from 113, LSP -62

4.       In large fields low draws have the best record with 11 wins from 109 runs and a profit of 54 points. 

5.       1st and 2nd favourites have recorded 103 wins from 428 runs with a profit of 17 points. 7 from 52, LSP -32

 

Key statistics related to the handicap races include:

1.       Forecast favourites have a good record with 18 wins from 85 races and a profit of 21 points. 2 from 12, LSP -2

2.       Horses that last ran more than 73 days ago have recorded 16 wins from 272 runs with a profit of 163 points. 0 from 27, LSP -27

3.       Horses in the weight range 9st 1lbs to 9st 3lbs have recorded 30 wins from 432 runs with a profit of 98 points. 3 from 36, LSP 9

4.       Horses ranked 6th to 15th in the betting forecast have recorded 36 wins from 867 runs with a profit of 167 points. 6 from 128, LSP 54

5.       Horses with forecast odds of 12/1 to 14/1 have recorded 23 wins from 340 runs with a profit of 117 points. 0 from 42, LSP -42