Racing Chat - Friday May 12th

[The Brigadier]

The final day of three on the Roodeye for Chester’s May meeting with the feature race of the meeting the Chester Cup due off at 15:15. The ground is now riding very soft there and the ITV cameras are also showing a race from the decent Ascot card on very soft ground. Here’s my free horse racing tips for this afternoon’s terrestrial action.

 

Chester 13:30

The days action at the Roodeye kicks off with a 13 runner class 2 handicap run over 7F 127 yards. Tim Easterby’s Boardman has a good record here of 2 wins from 6 starts and won’t mind the mud. He’s a player from stall 4 whilst Revich is another with course form (2 wins from 9) and ran 3rd in this last year (Boardman 5th when favourite)and is another with solid claims. Bottom weight Wobwobwob has plenty going for him though and is the tentative selection. A horse who likes to front run so is well berthed in stall one to attack and loves the mud. Adrian Paul Keatley’s gelding bumped into a well handicapped Haggas horse last time when runner up to Al Mubhir at Leicester and just 4lb higher than his Catterick win last October can be backed each way under jockey Leigh Roche.

 

WOBWOBWOB 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 bet365

 

ASCOT 13:50

Only six line up here for this valuable 7F three year old only 0-105 handicap. The ground is going to quiet testing here today and I’ve put a line through the trio of Oj Lifestyle, Tawafag and Dark Trooper who have all only raced on a sound surface.

Top weight Scholarship is up 7lb for his Newbury soft ground victory last month and has claims for Clive Cox as does Charlie Johnstone’s In These Shoes who has to shoulder a 5lb rise for her Beverley victory a fortnight ago. The horse I like though is the Charlie Hills trained Racingbreaks Ryder who’s chasing his fourth win on the bounce having risen just 11lb for that trio of victories. His latest win at Haydock last month has been given a big boost since by the victory of the third Royal Rhyme who ran out a 5L winner at Newmarket last week. He may still be ahead of the assessor and holds a big chance.

 

RACINGBREAKS RYDER 2 points win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

Chester 14:05

Another handicap with this one run over 1M 2 1/2F for horses rated 86-105 and four year olds and upwards. Last year’s one - two are back in winner Baryshnikov and runner up Cap Francais with the latter now 6lb better off for a length although he may not handle ground as bad as it’s likely to be as well as the former who is trained by David and Nicola Barron and has won three of his four career starts here. A draw of 7 of 10 is no disaster and he has the services of Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane who can still claim 3lb. The ground shouldn’t be a problem and off of the same handicap mark as last year he looks the one to be with.

Ryan Moore has got on the Sean Woods trained Savvy Victory and from the plum stall 1 draw should run well although is racing off of his highest ever handicap mark. Andrew Balding, who has his string in excellent shape saddles Groundbreaker in a first time combination of a tongue tie and a hood plus a gelding operation but has yet to encounter bad ground and is overlooked for that reason alone.

I’m happy to stick with the course form of Baryshnikov who can be backed each way and looks sure to be thereabouts.

 

BARYSHNIKOV 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 123 BetVictor

 

Chester 14:40

The only Group race on the final day is the Group 2 Huxley Stakes which is run over 1M 2 1/2F and has attracted a small but select field of six.

A strong fancy here is the Aidan O’Brien trained Point Lonsdale who was a smart juvenile back in 2021 winning all bar one of his five starts (twice in soft ground) and after flopping on his only run as a three year old when only 11/2 in the 2000 Guineas bounced back in no uncertain matter after a near year off when a cosy 1 1/2L winner of the Group 3 Alleged Stakes at The Curragh on heavy ground from Visulation and Lafayette (re-opposes here and safely held)who subsequently filled the first two positions in the Group 2 Mooresbridge Stakes at the same track. Smart form indeed and with Ryan Moore riding will be very hard to beat.

William Haggas was back among the winners on the first day and his Mujtaba is actually rated a pound higher than Point Lonsdale and will have his conditions here having won twice in soft/heavy. Impressive when last seen at Newbury in October he can chase home the favourite if straight enough.

Poker Face failed to beat Ottoman Fleet at Newmarket in the Earl Of Sefton on his re-appearance following some good work at Newmarket this Spring and that form looks even better now that the winner has won a Grade 2 in America. He’s only 6lb behind the top rated Mujtaba and can also run well for the Crisfords.

 

POINT LONSDALE 2 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor

 

Chester 15:15

Next up is the meetings feature race in the Chester Cup run over 2m 2 1/2F which has attracted a maximum field of seventeen. It has a very open look about it this year.

Not as classy a renewal as usual with the draw and ground the two major factors here. Call My Bluff ticks many of the boxes as loving the soft ground, has good form at the track and is well drawn. He’s the main bet although if we back him we must have a small each way saver on Emiyn who’s form ties in with his.

Falcon Eight has won this race before and has been lucky with the draw and is another one for the shortlist from the in form Dermot Weld yard with Ryan Moore booked. Another with claims is Harry Fry’s Metier who took last season’s November Handicap at Doncaster on heavy ground and will relish the soft conditions.

 

CALL MY BLUFF 2 points each way @ 10/1 1/5th 12345 bet365

EMIYN 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 12345 William Hill

METIER 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 1/5th 12345 Boylesports

 

 

Chester 15.45

A strange race for ITV to finish their weekly coverage with but there’s a winner to be found in this 1m 4 1/2F class 2 maiden with just six going to post.

Easily the most interesting here has to be the William Haggas trained Medieval Gold who is one of just four Haggas entries for this year’s Epsom Derby. By Derby winner Camelot he wouldn’t need to be anywhere near that standard to win this on his debut with the highest rated of his opponents rated 80. That is Michael Bell’s Banderas who went down by a head at Newbury in bad ground on his third start to the Haggas newcomer Klondike. That’s better form than Charlie Johnstone’s Kingsley Pride who’s already had a few chances and was well beaten on heavy ground last time at Ripon. Trainer Johnstone also saddles a Qatar Racing newcomer in King Of The Plains. The market here will be most informative but at this stage I’ll take a chance with the Haggas newcomer with the fancy entry to make a winning debut under Richard Kingscote who rides this track so well.

 

MEDIEVAL GOLD 1 point win @ 4/1 bet365

[MCLARKE]

This Friday sees the running of the Chester Cup. This heritage handicap is open to horses aged four years or older. It is run over 2 miles, 2 furlongs and 147 yards. Off time is 15.15.

17 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

The top 3 in the betting have a poor record with just 1 win from 28 attempts.

Horses drawn in stalls 4 to 11 have the best record with 6 wins from 60 runs and a profit of 6 points at Betfair Starting Price. Those running from other stalls have won just 2 times from 69 attempts.

Experienced jockeys are advisable for this race. Claiming jockeys have a poor record with 0 wins from 13 runs.

Beaten favourites also have a poor record with 0 wins from 9 runs.

 

4 horses meet these criteria.

CALLING THE WIND 11/1

TRITONIC 11/1

LAW OF THE SEA 20/1

RESHOUN 33/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers offering 5 places.

 

Calling The Wind is ridden by Jamie Spencer who has won this twice before. Reshoun is ridden by Jim Crowley who has also won this twice. Law Of The Sea is ridden by Franny Norton who won this in 2019.

Calling The Wind is trained by Ian Williams who has won this twice before.