Racing Chat - Saturday 6th May

[The Brigadier]

The first classic is upon us with the Qipco 2000 Guineas taking center stage at Newmarket this afternoon. The ITV cameras are there for five races including the big one at 16:40 whilst they will be showing the Thirsk Hunt Cup plus a class 2 handicap from Goodwood. The ground is good to firm at Newmarket although there are showers on the way whilst the ground at Goodwood is on the slow side and perfect good ground at Thirsk. Here’s my thoughts on the days action.

 

Newmarket 14:15

An interesting fillies and mares 6F listed contest that has attracted eleven runners. Micheal Dods saddles a brace of sprinters in the shape of Azure Blue and Gale Force Mayo with preference for the latter who has such a good record here. I am concerned however by the form of the County Durham based trainer who’s had just the one winner in his last 35 runners although that did come earlier this week. The latter is officially the best in the field at today’s weights and should run well mind.

The drying ground appears to have gone for Karl Burke’s Fast Response whilst Richard Hannon’s useful filly Heredia is dropping a furlong which isn’t certain to suit.

I’ll take a chance with the only Irish runner in the field in the shape of Ken Condon’s four year old Spring Fever who will be ridden by Danny Tudhope. Lightly raced in her Classic year she was a Tipperary maiden winner over 7 1/2F in August prior to putting up her best performance when 3rd in a Group 3 at the same track three weeks later at 7F. She is dropping in trip here but has some juicy future entries including the 6F Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot (the only runner in the field to hold an entry in that prestigious sprint) and is maybe worth taking a chance on.

 

SPRING FEELING 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5 123

 

Newmarket 14:50

A wide open 6F class 2 handicap with a near maximum 23 runners spread across the Newmarket Rowley Mile. Chances can be given to many with my short list comprising of Charlie Hills’s Tanmawwy who is 2lb well in here having run well when runner up at Newbury a fortnight ago.

Last year’s winner Blackrod is an interesting runner who is now in the care of Roger Teal and may well have prepped for this with an outing on the all weather at Kempton last month. The stable are not really firing at the moment mind and he is 2lb higher than last season.

Ed Walkers consistent sprinter Popmaster was 9th in this last year and is now 9lb better off with Blackrod for a 2 1/2L beating so could go well having run down the field at Newbury in the race that Tanmawwy was second in a fortnight ago.

Celsius would be high up on my short list as he has a very good record fresh wining on three of the last four seasons first time out and the booking of Harry Davies looks enticing. His form actually ties in with Tom Tate’s Equiano Springs who has won four times from five starts here at Newmarket. The ground was probably on the slow side for him when he also ran too free here at the Craven meeting and at a big price I’ll take him to cause an upset with Celsius also in the staking plan.

 

EQUIANO SPRINGS 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

CELSIUS 1/2 point each way @ 20/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

Goodwood 15:05

Just ten have declared for this class 2 0-100 10F handicap with the likely favourite the Charlie Hills trained, Shadwell owned Maghlaak. He starts off in handicaps off of what may be a workable mark of 86 and is chasing a hat trick here following wins at Kempton on the all weather and over course and distance last September. That win hasn’t worked out that well and may represent poor value here. Richard Hughes’s Aussie Banker arrives in good form having placed twice in his last two starts on the all weather and has claims but the horse I like best is the John And Thady Gosden trained Honiton who was a bit unfortunate in bumping into some decent sorts last season including My Prospero (official rating now 121), Secret State (OR 110) and Eldar Eldarov (OR 116). He ran flat on his handicap debut at Royal Ascot which came a week after an easy win at Sandown. He’s been gelded since and a handicap mark of 93 looks very workable. The drying ground maybe against mudlark Bad Company who did it so well at Epsom 11 days ago whilst top weight Stay Well has run well fresh in the past and is not out of this.

 

HONITON 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 15:25

Another bumper field for this valuable 9F class 2 handicap, the Howden Suffolk Stakes. Many can be given chances with Godolphin’s King Of Conquest right amongst them having won a valuable handicap in Bahrain in February. The handicapper has reacted by rising him 10lb for that but he should be thereabouts.

Jimi Hendrix proved his Lincoln Handicap run to be all wrong when scooting up at Newbury last month, a race for which he’s been raised 9lb for. He should be thereabouts also if coping with this sounder surface.

The drying ground may be against the likes of Empirestateofmind, Great Max and Titian however.

Last year’s course and distance winner of the Cambridgeshire Majestic trained by Jack Channon ran well on his re-appearance on heavy ground when 4th in the Lincoln, a race that has worked out well, and back on better ground has to be a player here and he’s the each way pick for me although I can’t resist a small saver on track specialist Turntable who’s won 4 of his 6 races at this track including twice last Autumn when ridden by today’s capable jockey Kaiya Fraser who claims 7lb. This is his first run for a new trainer in the very much in form Harry Eustace having joined from the now retired Chris Wall.

 

MAJESTIC 1 point each way 9/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

TURNTABLE 1/2 point each way 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Thirsk 15:40

The feature race of the day at the Yorkshire track is the 1M Thirsk Hunt Cup, a class 2 handicap for 4 year olds and upwards and has attracted a healthy field of 15. The race has a real open look about it with plenty holding chances of sorts.

Top weight Cruyff Turn is the best horse in the race but one thinks that this will be a race to get him ready for another go at York’s Dante meeting. A couple who’s form entangle together is the Ann Duffield trained Billyb and Micky Hammond’s Carnival Zain with preference for the latter who’s well berthed in stall 5 and is two from two here. With the useful Aiden Brookes, claiming 5lb booked he’s worth a small each way bet in such an open handicap.

David O’Meara saddles a trio of runners with Autumn Festival, who racked up a a five timer last season having to put a poor well beaten effort at Musselburgh on his re-appearance behind him whilst Pisanello was third in this last year from a one pound higher handicap mark. Tuscan is the third O’Meara runner whom I fancied a bit last week at Haydock when easy to back and running moderately.

 

CARNIVAL ZAIN 1/2 bet each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newmarket 16:00

The Group 3 Palace House Stakes is up next with a good sized field of 17 going to post for this 5F contest. Take out the rank outsider Sandbeck and on official ratings there’s only 7lb between the sixteen showing how open the contest is. Although I do think that Henry Candy’s five year old Twilight Calls has an excellent chance. A winner first time out for the last two seasons he has the assistance of Ryan Moore today and a reproduction of either of his second spots in Group 2 and Group 1 company last Summer would be good enough to take this with his optimum conditions today. Trainer Candy has his string in fine form winning with 3 of his last 10 runners and must go close here even if he did go off a similar price last year when only finishing 5th.

John Ryan’s Manaccan has to carry a 3lb penalty for his Group 3 Dundalk victory last Autumn and should be thereabouts but I much prefer Twilight Calls.

Charlie Hills does so well with his sprinters and saddles a brace here in Equilateral and Equality with preference for the latter who goes well fresh and has the assistance of William Buick today. He can run well but it’s all about the Candy horse for me.

 

TWILIGHT CALLS 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365

 

Newmarket 16:40

The first colts classic of the 2023 turf season is as intriguing as ever. Aiden O’Brien sets a poser by saddling both last year’s top rated two year old Little Big Bear and the highly promising Auguste Rodin. Ryan Moore appears to have chosen the latter but it can’t have been an easy decision with his mount ideally needing further so any rain before race time would suit him. In contrast Little Big Bear who will be ridden by Wayne Lordan looks fast and has doubts about seeing out a mile although his breeding suggests he may well stay a mile.

Chaldean comes here as a smart juvenile whose attempt at having a prep run ended in disaster with Frankie Dettori unseated at the stalls in the Greenham at Newbury a fortnight ago. He should be thereabouts and Dettori will be hoping for a classic win in his final year race riding.

Sakheer may well struggle staying the mile whilst the pick of the Godolphin pair may well be Silver Knott although he was behind Chaldean last year and his stable seem to be struggling for top form at the moment.

Royal Scotsman should not be overlooked either but I’ll take Little Big Bear to score for team Ballydoyle as he was the best of these as a juvenile and although there’s plenty of talk about him not staying his pedigree suggests otherwise.

 

LITTLE BIG BEAR 2 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5 1234

 

 

All odds are accurate at the time of writing

 

 

[kensland]

Newmarket. 

Single. 

3.25. Jimi Hendrix      11/2

stk 5.00   rtn 32.0

Good luck all.