Racing Chat - Saturday 11th March

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras bring us seven races today with four coming from the feature meeting at Sandown who have to pass a 8 AM inspection with a chilly night forecast and with the ground very much on the soft side and three from Wolverhampton where it’s Lincoln trial day. Here’s my thoughts on the seven.

 

Wolverhampton 1.30

The days action kicks off with a ten runner 6F class handicap. Silkie Wilkie arrives in decent form having made all to win at Kempton last time and although 6lb higher will surely have his followers. Anything Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane rides has to be given respect and he’s on board Baldomero for Mick Appleby and The Horse Watchers and also has claims. The one I like however is bottom weight Ingra Tor trained by rookie handler Jack Channon who took over the reigns from his father Mick earlier this year and has already had 3 winners from 20 runners. He’s been gelded since last seen some 197 days ago but was a useful turf sprinter last summer who has already won on the all weather. If he’s ready to go he looks worthy of a bet.

 

INGRA TOR 2 points win @ 6/1 Bet Victor

 

Sandown 1.50

A decent sized field of seventeen turn up for the EBF Betfair NH Novices’ Handicap Hurdle. The race as one would expect has a very open look about it with several holding chances. On my short list is Gary Moore’s Inneston who was last seen winning over course and distance 23 days ago from Twin Powers, one of three Paul Nicholls runners in the race. Dan Skelton’s Etalon is another possible having won well at Wetherby last time and sporting a first time tongue tie here. I’m going to take a chance however on Milton Harris’ Twinjets who is better off at the weights for being beaten by Twin Powers over course and distance in February and has already won twice in soft ground so will certainly enjoy the wet terrain. There’s additional places available here so make sure you search them out.

 

TWINJETS 1 point each way @ 10/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Wolverhampton 2.05

The Spreadex Sports Lincoln Trial Handicap is up next. Run over 1M 142 yards it is, as the name suggests, a trial for the big one at Doncaster next month. A field of thirteen have declared with the favourite the one I like best. Trained at Newmarket by John & Thady Gosden Unforgotten runs in the royal blue Godolphin silks and will be ridden today by one of their jockeys in James Doyle. He returned from a 659 day absence to win two handicaps at Lingfield over a mile a tad cosily, coming late and fast to mow down his opponents. The handicapper has had his say by pushing him up 8lb but that may not be enough to stop this lightly raced Exceed And Excel roan from winning again. Last year’s winner Notre Belle Bete is back to defend his title but is now 8lb higher whilst a bigger threat may well be the Mick Appleby trained War In Heaven who’s chasing a course and distance five timer.

 

UNFORGOTTEN 2 points win @ 4/1 bet365

 

Sandown 2.25

A bumper field of 18 face the starter for the feature race of the day - the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle run over the minimum trip of two miles. Like the EBF Final the contest has a wide open look about it. Gary Moore’s Givega is a decent novice who bounced back to form when winning a novice hurdle over course and distance last time and in his first handicap is high on my short list. Ireland send two over having plundered the race last year with last year’s winning trainer Peter Fahey saddling Zoffany Bay who was a massive drifter last time at Ascot when running really well to finish runner up to the improver Irish Hill. Dan Skelton’s Playful Saint should also be considered having bolted up last time at Leicester whilst cases can be made for top weight Metier who will love the heavy ground and even Venetia William’s charge Djelo. Stakes kept small but it’s Givega for me each way with additional places.

 

GIVEGA 1 point each way @ 8/1 Betfair Sportsbook 1/5th 12345

 

Wolverhampton 2.40

Eight go to post for the Spreadex Sports Lady Wulfruna Stakes, a listed contest run over 7F. A strong fancy here is the Ralph Beckett trained Angel Bleu, a smart soft ground turf performer who’s making his all weather debut for a trainer who won with 3 of his last 4 runners. Angel Bleu has kept the best company on turf running in group one company on 4 of his last 5 starts winning two of them. With no penalties for those victories he may simply outclass his seven opponents headed by last years winner Tinker Toy, who’s very in and out and Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Shadow who’s been gelded since last seen 212 days ago. From a yard in red hot form Angel Bleu will be very hard to beat if anywhere near fit enough.

 

ANGEL BLEU 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Sandown 3.00

Only nine turn up for this listed mares only bumper. At the head of the market we have the easy Hereford winner Casa No Mento trained in the Cotswolds by Nigel Twiston Davies whilst there shouldn’t be much between Harry Fry’s Goodtimecrew and Paul Nicholls’ Larchmont Lass who wears a first time hood here. That may be enough to turn the tables and in a tricky contest is worth a small interest.

 

LARCHMONT LASS 1 point win @ 11/2 bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

A small field of six face the starter for this 2m 4F 10 yard class 1 handicap chase and features the best bet of the day in the favourite Easy As That trained by Venetia Williams. Soft ground is a must for the improving eight year old who’s won two of his three starts over fences in splendid style rising 16lb for wins at Haydock and Newcastle. Olly Murphy saddles his dual winner this season in No Risk Des Flos and he may be the biggest threat although Brian Ellison’s Baron De Middleton shouldn’t be overlooked as he appeared to improve last time for a wind op. He may not appreciate the soft conditions however.

 

EASY AS THAT 3 points win @ 6/4 BetVictor

 

[kensland]

Wolverhampton. 

Patent. 

2.05. Notre Belle Bete    4/1

2.40. Angel Bleu               11/4

3.15. Berkshire Phantom     11/8

Good luck all. 

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin

7.35

 

Hong Kong Hall has received good reports ahead of track debut. 

Would need to be exceptional to win on debut though.

Hong Kong Hall

Small win

Equilibrium turbo 

each way

One at a decent price is Equilibrium turbo.

proved a revelation dropped to this trip last time. Threaded through field effortlessly to grab second despite traffic problems for a clear career best. Would win  well if repeating this performance. High Bowman on a hat trick rides.

Never placed before over longer trips.... 

[Sporting Sam]

Sha tin

9.45

Dragons luck

Win

Wonder kit

Each way

[black rabbit]

Silva Klass                                   3 45 G/PK              1/40th   of a pt ew    20/1 

Mexico                                         1 50 San/               1/40th   0f a pt ew    22/1 

Man o work                                 2 25 San/               1/40th   of a pt ew    16/1

Cuban Breeze                             1 30 Wv/                 1/40th  of a pt ew    20/1

 

 

 

 

P/L          + 157 PTS

Edited March 11, 2023 by black rabbit

[MCLARKE]

The big Saturday betting race is the Imperial Cup at Sandown, first run in 1907. This premier handicap is run over a distance of 1 mile, 7 furlongs and 216 yards. It is open to horses aged 4 years or older. Off time is 2.25.

With Cheltenham being just 3 days away the sponsors offer a bonus to the owner of the winning horse if it goes on to win at the festival. Winners of this bonus have included Olympian, Blowing Wind and Gaspara. It is certainly worthwhile to consider the winner of this race if it goes on to appear at Cheltenham.

There is a bumper turnout of 18 with some bookmakers offering each-way terms of 6 places which makes this an excellent betting proposition.

BEST TO BE FIT

The key stat is fitness. 53 horses have run in the race after having a layoff of 5 weeks or more and all have lost. All the winners had a rest period of 17 to 34 days with the 59 runners generating a profit of 60 points at SP.

The horse should be relatively experienced. The ideal number of career starts is between 8 and 20, these horses have recorded 6 wins from 57 runs with a profit of 44 points.

French bred horses do not have a good record with just 1 win from 36 runs.

 

3 horses match these criteria.

MAN O WORK – available at 10/1 with BETUK (5 places)

FINE CASTING – available at 14/1 with several bookmakers paying 6 places

METIER – available at 12/1 with 888sport paying 5 places

I suggest backing all 3 each way.

[Alley Cat Glover]

Quiet day small Lucky15 for interest at Sandown

13.50 Off to a Flyer 16/1. 6 places. (Behind The Carpenter last race and 3rd to a couple of good ones previous)

14.25 Punctuation 18/1. 6 places. (4th in a good Cheltenham handicap form looks promising)

16.10 Make me a Believer 15/2  4 places (2 nd race after long lay off plenty of time to hopefully avoid a bounce)

16.45 Iconic Muddle  13/2  4 places ( form looks good but on the drift which for a G Moore horse is a bit of a worry)

 

[Bang on]

Another hectic Saturday, with football taking up it's share of study.

3.20 Ayr - Ginger Mail - 9/4 (Hills) - 1pt - Trainer Nick Alexander's local course, and a course he does well at. This CD winner is only 1lb higher than for his last win.

7.00 Chelm - Barging Thru - 7/2 - 1pt - Beaten just over a length 4 weeks ago (the 1st 2 in the race have both won since), top course jockey Luke Morris rides.

8.30 Chelm - Beautiful Crown - 3/1 - 1pt - On a losing run of 12 (back to 2021), but is gradually dropping in the weights. I have kept an eye on this horse, and today it runs in a class 6, and the 2 races it has won were class 4 and 5. Slightly speculative with such a losing run, but I'm tempted.

3pts staked

[The Equaliser]

Late again

1.50 Hugos New Horse 0.50 ew at 11/1 6TBP

Back later with more selctions

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Late again

1.50 Hugos New Horse 0.50 ew at 11/1 6TBP

Back later with more selctions

Lucky 15

2.40 Wolv Dahbab 9/2

3.00 San Goodtime Crew 10/3

4.10 San Mucho Mas 5/1

4.45 San Golden Whiskey 9/2

1 x 0.20 w L15 = 3 pts poss ret of 315.27

----------------------------------------------------------

Single bet

2.25 San knickerbocker Glory 0.50ew at 18/1 (6TBP)

3.35 San Lac De Constance 1 pt win at 7.0 Its as easy as that ?

Total stakes 6 pts so far

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Too much info to look at today.  I can't be bothered to look at this evening's offerings

Two placed winners and 3.20 returned on my L15.  I wish I had done a top jockey trixie with Oisin Murphy's mounts.  My bets yielded 1.10 profit on the day.  this makes my MTD +9.82 and YTD -85.45

Edited March 11, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UDATE

[kensland]

Fancy D . Loughane only runner. 

Chelmsford. 

6.30. Amber Island       18/1

stk 5.00          rtn 95.00

Good luck all. 

[Sporting Sam]

I'm not sure how it will go but I do think 

Grange island may be overpriced in the 4.55 

Gowran park 

[azzybear]

tigar crusade 6.30

[azzybear]

maysong 7.00 

[azzybear]

privilege 7.30 ew 

[Bang on]

On 3/11/2023 at 1:29 PM, Bang on said:

Another hectic Saturday, with football taking up it's share of study.

3.20 Ayr - Ginger Mail - 9/4 (Hills) - 1pt - Trainer Nick Alexander's local course, and a course he does well at. This CD winner is only 1lb higher than for his last win.

7.00 Chelm - Barging Thru - 7/2 - 1pt - Beaten just over a length 4 weeks ago (the 1st 2 in the race have both won since), top course jockey Luke Morris rides.

8.30 Chelm - Beautiful Crown - 3/1 - 1pt - On a losing run of 12 (back to 2021), but is gradually dropping in the weights. I have kept an eye on this horse, and today it runs in a class 6, and the 2 races it has won were class 4 and 5. Slightly speculative with such a losing run, but I'm tempted.

3pts staked

Mixed day, so nearly.

Ginger mail - 2nd

Barging Thru - WON

Beautiful Crown - 2nd

+ 1.5pts on the day.